General Betting
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Calling Kelly Experts
Calling Kelly Experts
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Thank you all for your thoughts/help on this and apologies for hijacking the thread.
I have finally got round to doing some testing on my last 2 years bets. The results are looking extremely promising but I am wary of comparing apples and pairs...... I thought due to the nature of kelly, it will be very difficult to compare to fixed stakes because of the very nature of each plan. I think the only way each can be compared is by getting the ROI for each staking plan. To be clear, as this often causes debate, my interpretation of ROI is as follows: ROI: total profit and loss / total liability For my current dataset, using kelly improves the ROI by a whopping 60% in comparison to fixed stakes! An astonishing gain which is why I have to question this!? Would anyone agree that these staking plans can be compared in this way? Any feedback much appreciated. |
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oh I almost forgot (in true Columbo style)...
for each bet used in the ROI calculations for Kelly, I have not increased my bank with wins and losses. I set the staking to always think the bank is 1 (number irrelevant, the important point being this does not increase/decrease with wins and losses). |
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Anyone got any book recommendations for Kelly? Thinking of getting myself this for christmas
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0809046377/ref=cm_rdp_product/188-9474167-1155851 Poundstones other works look interesting to, anyone read him? |
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Hi Brendanuk1
Yes, have read Fortune's Formula - interesting book (in places) but could have done with a decent sub-editing job because the author does wander off the point many times which makes it a bit confusing. As I have said before, there is a really good explanation of Kelly in (of all things) the Daily Mirror book Better Betting. It also has very good chapters on in-running betting. |
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this one?
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Better-Betting-Mirror/dp/1907324097 Is it all horsey horsey stuff? i only do football. Happy to find good info anywhere though  |
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Brendan, I would recommend "Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management - Joseph Buchdahl",
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fixed-Odds-Sports-Betting-Statistical/dp/1843440199 this contains many staking plans (inc Kelly - though I skimmed that section last time) which he tests using monte carlo for risk etc. From memory he gives his examples using football, the other chapters well worth the read too regarding overround etc. One of my best books, up there with Peter May's work imo. |
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Joe is the football data guy isnt he? will have a look, cheers
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That's him - yes.
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