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Replies: 213
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 23 Nov 10 21:08
If you are basically putting up and/or taking odds that you calculate to be "good value" and you get filled in any manner whatsoever at all at those odds, what is the bottom line difference to you.?
After all your value assessmenst are really the only thing that count long term, aren't they ?
By:
The Investor
When: 23 Nov 10 21:29
To get true 'optimal execution' in an over/under markets for instance, you need to offer to lay the inverse of what you want to back as well as placing your back bet, or vice versa.

If you offer to back at 1.12, it makes sense to offer to lay the inverse at 9 first, to save yourself getting matced at 9.33 when you could get your lay matched at 9.00.
It's tremendously inefficient, and results directly from Betfair not passing the benefits of cross-matching on to the customer.
By:
The Investor
When: 23 Nov 10 21:30
Despite that, the profit for Betfair keeping the cross matching profits for themselves probably outweigh the benefits of them passing this on to the customers.
By:
redferrari
When: 23 Nov 10 21:38
investor - just while you are on the over/unders i've never understood why they need back and lay sides on over 2.5 and under 2.5 for example - why don't they just have over 2.5 goals and a back side and a lay side - so if you want to back overs then back it if you want overs you lay it - no need for 2 sets of back/lay sides if you know what i mean
By:
redferrari
When: 23 Nov 10 21:39
*"so if you want to back overs then back it if you want UNDERS you lay it"*
By:
Lori
When: 23 Nov 10 21:39
I asked them about that red (as the 1% site don't do it that way) and they claimed it's easier for punters to understand to have two choices!

I'm pretty sure Betfair either don't get the concept of one line, or don't want to get it.
By:
The Investor
When: 23 Nov 10 22:02
That's correct redferrari/lori,

The thing is that a large proportion of the customers only back (use the site with the simplified view).

Although it's all very simple, there really is a large group of customers out there that just wouldn't get it, which can be hard to understand if it's all simple to you.
By:
The Investor
When: 23 Nov 10 22:03
^
on top of that, Betfair would lose out on the significant cross matching profit Laugh[;)]
By:
Lori
When: 23 Nov 10 22:07
The way it's displayed at the other place, it still appears that you can "back both" but if you ask for a price that's too big, it merely shows up as a lay on the other side
By:
Bayes.
When: 23 Nov 10 23:24
Forget 2 runner markets. Betfair make buttons from cross-matching on them. The genius for Betfair is in multi runner markets. Take a match odds market in football. If I offer to back A at 3, the other two runners (B and C) are offered at 1.5. If someone backs B at the offered 1.5 then my back of 3 is matched with their back of 1.5. Sounds fair enough, we both got what we asked for. The problem is, if C is the winning outcome neither of us win and Betfair scoop the lot.

In football it barely presents a problem, except in unformed markets. However, during in-running racing, Betfair will often enc up scooping the lot on the field.
By:
Bayes.
When: 23 Nov 10 23:35
So to be clear, if I back A at 3.0 for 2 quid, and you back B at 1.5 for 4 quid the books we all have before commission are:

Me:

A +4
B -2
C -2

You:

A -4
B +2
C -4

Betfair:

A 0
B 0
C +6
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 24 Nov 10 00:42
Betfair will build up some nice positions on runners with x matching the way it's currently run with no risk whatsoever. These situations will occur alot more than people think especially when markets go in play and are just forming and because most matching will be done well before any prices have chance to be displayed on the site.

It was argued that if betfair are treating your bet as a lay of B rather than a back of A that is the bet you should be given.
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 24 Nov 10 00:43
So effectively your bet would now be

A +4
B -2
C +4
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 10 06:58
I'm not sure I totally get this.
As per Bayes example, isn't it currently the case that there are liquidity providing bots prowling out there, that if these two bet submissions were posted openly on the exchange, then they would fill them in this manner, taking the risk free third outcome position.
Why does BF feel it has to do this ?
Are you saying that these bet submissions would now not ever even make it onto the open exchange for others to fill them ?
By:
The Investor
When: 24 Nov 10 07:33
Bayes.
Date Joined: 13 Sep 05
Add contact
When: 23 Nov 10 23:24
Forget 2 runner markets. Betfair make buttons from cross-matching on them. The genius for Betfair is in multi runner markets. Take a match odds market in football. If I offer to back A at 3, the other two runners (B and C) are offered at 1.5. If someone backs B at the offered 1.5 then my back of 3 is matched with their back of 1.5. Sounds fair enough, we both got what we asked for. The problem is, if C is the winning outcome neither of us win and Betfair scoop the lot.

In football it barely presents a problem, except in unformed markets. However, during in-running racing, Betfair will often enc up scooping the lot on the field.


I don't really think your example is 'fair enough' as one of you is getting a ridiculously poor price. And I expect it's not you Laugh[;)]

If Betfair end up scooping the lot in in running horse racing, that can only mean that no one has been able to offer decent odds right. Otherwise these bets wouldn't get matched. Or am I missing something? I guess as horse racing is so fast moving, the odds go haywire, and people get matched at all kinds of crazy odds.
By:
aye robot
When: 24 Nov 10 09:48
These situations will occur alot more than people think

Almost every race in fact.
By:
tomb raider
When: 24 Nov 10 10:15
Betfair will be cleaning up on the in-running racing markets and they know it! I've been operating in-play for a few years but unlike Betfair didn't have the luxury of having NO risk but still made good profits. But I know for a fact they look at winning accounts and they would have seen the sorts of profits individuals such as myself were making. The original bet matching logic was even more onerous than the current version and we all know how that was switched on without any announcement and the pack of lies told by Betfair subsequently. It's clear that along with the Premium Charge that Betfair want it all! I was told as a PC payer that it's purpose was to attract new custom to the exchange! Really? What, by coming up with some 'happy hour' promotion on the Casino where you as a company get your pants pulled down big time and get shafted royally!! Not how I was expecting my PC payments to be used! Rant over...
By:
Mr Alive
When: 24 Nov 10 10:56
Is the above example the way it works tho? If it is then I fully agree that should outcome C win then Betfair are sitting pretty. Exchanges are where for every backer you have a layer as seen on all the Betfair adverts. As I understood X matching if you offered to back something for £2 at 3.0 odds then a lay for £4 at 1.5 on another selection would be added to the market. In 2 runner markets this is obviously very easy. Where there are 3 or more then there are obvious complications. If your offered back is taken by another back then yes Betfair take both stakes should the 3rd 4th or 5th runner etc win. By the small announcement made it appear that best execution would be used so they would use existing liquidity to get you bet matched rather than introduce new bets. So it would still be Backer against Layer. If they are using backers against backers in a very clever algorithm then it's a license to print money for Betfair.

As ever with Betfair their communication of these potentially very serious matters are shockingly poor. A small announcement in the services section of the Forum. What about those that don't use the forum? A proper explanation of this matter would go a long way to alleviating some of the fears expressed here. That would require Betfair to give a hoot about their ahem Customers. What odds would you give me on that??

I suspect for many they won't care who is matching their bets if they are matched with greater frequency at often better odds. I agree with previous posters that most of the value will now turn into Betfair's increased profit.

For My own example I was trading IR yesterday unaware this trial at Lingfield was taking place. I commented to myself that for several races no opportunities arose for me to place bets into the market. After several more races I noticed it was only at Lingfield. At the end of the day I checked my P/L and I had only placed bets in 1 race at Lingfield. On checking the forums and service announcements I discovered the trial.

I am by no means a big player but would generally add about 1K to 2K of matched bets IR. I day at one track by no means stops me playing but I shall watch the next month with interest. This only applies to Win markets and as mentioned before as one door shuts another opens. Betfair also have competitors but like most of the others using Betfair we do so as they are the market leader and the all important liquidity. You might find that increases elsewhere in the coming weeks.

Good luck all
By:
Bayes.
When: 24 Nov 10 11:06
They certainly do match backs against backs. I checked before I posted. From two separate accounts in an empty market:

Back   
Your
Odds
Your
Stake
Your
Profit
Rot-Weiss Ahlen    1.5    £4.00    £2.00
    £4.00



Back  Your
Odds  Your
Stake  Your
Profit 
The Draw  3  £2.00  £4.00 

First account shows:

Rot-Weiss Ahlen    +2
Stuttgart-A        -4
Draw               -4

Second account shows:

Rot-Weiss Ahlen    -2
Stuttgart-A        -2
Draw               +4

Stuttgart-A win and Betfair scoop the lot.


I don't do any ir horse racing but this would really worry me if I did.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 10 11:16
Maybe BF has decided that it's real future lies with satisfying and attracting the normal punter, who is unsophisticated in the ins and outs of bots, high speed bets, arbitraging value discrepancies etc etc etc.
Maybe they see no long term future in having a realitevly few highly skilled operators making guaranteed profits at the expense of others' naivety.
And you know, maybe they're even right.
By:
aye robot
When: 24 Nov 10 11:17
Mr Alive,

Backers are indeed matched against backers. This is quite clear.

Regarding your betting at Lingfield yesterday, I'm sure you know that this isn't necessarily caused by the x matcher in the same way that Hurricane Katrina wasn't necessarily caused by climate change. I also had a slow day at lingfield yesterday but on any given day I may be slow on any track, that's just variance. We will have to wait to see over the coming few months how the algorithm affects the markets, particularly as it's more complex affects work their way through (e.g. marginal players being removed).

Regarding BF's competitors - they also cross match much more aggressively than BF and have done from the start. There is very little money to be made at quack, partly for this reason and partly because of poor liquidity and I don't see that changing any time soon.

Although the x-matcher is bad news for me I'm quite looking forwards to today's racing because we'll start to see it playing out, I'll begin to find out how good my modelling of it was and I'll get my first proper chance to try out some ideas for exploiting it. All good fun.
By:
Mr Alive
When: 24 Nov 10 11:20
Cheers for that, my assumption about Cross matching is totally wrong then. It appears the TV adverts are misleading and it is no longer Backer against Layer but Backers and Layers against Betfair.

Very worrying times for some and very profitable times for Betfair. Fair play to them, they are determined to squeeze every last penny out of winners. As they say many will not notice and indeed benefit. Watching brief for many I feel in the weeks to come.
By:
tomb raider
When: 24 Nov 10 11:20
Betfair will be scooping the lot. We know their propensity for being economical with the truth and I have no reason to believe anything will be different in this instance. The original betting exchange model is now dead as far as Betfair is concerned.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 10 11:33
Tomb raider
And some would say that BF is just returning it to the original concept, before all the sharpies moved in and removed all the actual or potential profit available for the average joe playing against the average joe.
The sharpies have just replaced the bookies in the old pre-exchange model.
By:
tomb raider
When: 24 Nov 10 11:35
FAFH, the naive should become educated then! Betting and trading are no different to any other occupation in life. Learning your trade and becoming the best is an option for all of us. Unfortunately Betfair don't see things this way.
By:
aye robot
When: 24 Nov 10 11:36
Strictly speaking it's backers against other backers - which is a fair enough exchange model. In any case laying is just another form of backing.

Mugs against Mugs is a better description though, good players get cut out of the loop whether they're backing or laying.

It's still fair enough from BF though, it will make them a lot of money and that's what they're here to do. If I ran Betfair I'd bot it like you wouldn't believe.
By:
Mr Alive
When: 24 Nov 10 11:39
Aye Robert - you are entirely right as I did have at least one profitable race at Lingfield so I'll be watching with interest over the coming weeks and scale everything down until I can see where it settles. I've changed what I do twice before and I'll change again if need! All part of the fun despite the years of data collection. Like I say I'm a small player with a 13.7k profit on UK Horse racing this calender thus far. I play about 150 days a year. I'd very much like this to continue. We shall see.

Fine As Frog Hair - You may have a point, Betfair after all is a Business and there are clearly a few bot owners making Large consistent profits and Betfair want their slice. The casual small punter will more than likely benefit so in fairness the majority of losers/marginal players will get matched more often and at better prices. They won't care about outcome C where Betfair clean up. Just be annoyed their own selection lost! All very clever.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 24 Nov 10 11:43
Thank you Mr Alive.
At least someone can understand that BF is perhaps taking the McDonalds approach to all this, for good, sound business reasons
By:
aye robot
When: 24 Nov 10 12:14
13.7k profit on UK Horse racing this calender thus far

Better than most people earn in their jobs (per day).

I'd very much like this to continue.

Yes, I would have thought so!
By:
Mr Alive
When: 24 Nov 10 12:39
LOL Yeah I suppose that's pretty obvious! Early indications are that Betfair are now taking this cash but I may have spotted another opportunity! Way to early to tell properly. On the downside for Betfair they will now lose my commission and charges, considerably smaller than my profits. Ho hum
By:
Muqbil
When: 24 Nov 10 12:47
An interesting consideration is the laying / backing aspect. There has been a lot of fuss kicked up by the bookmakers and BHA recently suggesting that all LAYERS on Betfair should be subject to a levy of some kind.

Betfair in their submission to the levy board explained backer and layers were one and the same. They explained Betfair is the bookmaker and will only match a lay bet if a back bet is available to fulfil the lay request.

This new functionality certainly throws another spanner into the works for the mob wanting blood from layers on Betfair.
By:
Mr Alive
When: 24 Nov 10 13:15
Do you think they will now do a new TV ad where the man in the middle takes both the punters money when they both lose??? Laugh
By:
Escapee
When: 24 Nov 10 14:38
2:15 Chepstow was won by 'Stow'
It had a a couple of pounds matched at both 890 and 970, matched pennies at a time.

I don't think these backers would have got matched without X-Matching.
By:
aye robot
When: 24 Nov 10 14:45
Obviously it's very early days- but from where I'm sitting it's so far, so good for me. It doesn't seem to be causing me a big problem yet.
By:
tomb raider
When: 24 Nov 10 14:48
escapee-I'm afraid you're wrong-they would have been matched previously.
By:
Beefie
When: 24 Nov 10 14:56
Are we sure the x matching is working.  So far (small sample of 14 races I know) but things are looking better than ever, and I was expecting to take a big hit.
By:
aye robot
When: 24 Nov 10 15:10
How do you play Beefie?
By:
Mr Alive
When: 24 Nov 10 15:17
Here is the first test. Cape Dor still IR despite not going into the stalls! Not touching this race with a barge pole!
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 24 Nov 10 15:20
Yep looked like x matching was running on that race too Mr Alive
By:
Beefie
When: 24 Nov 10 15:24
Aye Robot - I make markets laying IR (not entirely sure as my neural network selects the bets).  Although it's adaptively self training it couldn't have caught up yet with the x matching change.

I saw your P&L numbers on another post - I don't do as many bets (say 800 a day), and P&L is of the same order of magnitude as yours - probably a little more.
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