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I'd like to re-state that although this is bad for me, I don't object. I'm stating the problems because people are raising questions and because I'd like to discuss it, but if this comes across as complaining then please forgive me, I'm not complaining.
Ultimately I agree with Brendan that what we're facing is a better player- or a player who has a colossal advantage at any rate. Ultimately it's Betfair's exchange and they can rig it any way they like as long as they're transparent about it - which they have been. I entirely understand why they've done this and I would definitely do the same (and much more besides) in their shoes. I've been dining out on Betfair for a couple of years now and it's been fantastic. I intend to do the same for some time to come but if it does end for any reason then that's life and I don't intend to b1tch about it. |
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Dont get sucked in by ego and think you can beat it, as all the data you have will be before this was implemented and that itself will carry extra risk
Again, I agree with Brendan. I'm currently doing about 10% of my usual volume whilst I work out what's happening. I am winning so I'll be gradually scaling up as I adapt but I'll be doing it with great caution and I'd recommend anyone else to do the same. It's important to avoid "gain" psychology, when you're winning scale up slowly, if you're losing keep scaling down steadily for as long as you keep losing until you can't scale down any more, at that point you admit defeat and stop. The other way round leads to ruin. |
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Maybe you should take that halo off once in a while aye robot. Sure it's betfairs exchange and sure we'd all do something similar if we owned it. Doesn't mean it's right though, basically we now have betfair seeding their own markets with our bets without passing on any of the real benefits x matching should bring the users betting on here.
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as long as they're transparent about it - which they have been
Um, only after being caught! |
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GJ- I just don't want to be a winger. We all know the rules and choose whether to play or not.
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I think that other than pure horse racing players, we've all moved on now
Where have you gone Lori? I am thinking of moving on and getting a job [:o] |
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haha brendan.
I mean moved on from whining about it (much) and accepted that profits have taken a hit and learned to deal with it... unlike the PC which is still an ongoing concern. |
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ok cool i thought there was some secret exchange somewhere where all the shrewdies are hanging out
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Aye robot, complaining and whingeing aren't necessarily the same thing. People on here will make snap judgements about everyones motives so it's really not worth the effort trying to convince them otherwise.
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Did the rapid increase in numbers of oncourse players improve your overall p/l, ay robot?
btw, thanks for the detailed earlier reply. Makes sense. |
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Muqbil
History has shown us the fast pic players are the first to complain when something starts to affect their bottom line. although bf are the big rakers of this change - the fast pic gang will get better bet execution than before. No way will bf look to level the pic playing field - they have shareholders to look after !! |
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The fast pic gang will not be better off. Every mistake they make backing at odds too short gives Betfair a freeroll. When they get it right they may get a bit extra, but when they get it wrong they may well be giving the lot to Betfair.
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the times they get it right to the times they get it wrong - will overall increase their profit
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Betfair win, losers lose more slowly and now winners win more. Afraid that does not compute.
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BF win major part - fast pic (low margin) players win slightly more than normal - the total of this is what the bot layer (that robot describes) loses as a result of this change - now that computes
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Never done horse racing but in football the margins were slashed, then when everyone adjusts the margins get very very tight, so tight that apart from the very good players you might aswell be gambling having a punt as most even better than average players then move into mug territory in comparison (plus commision plus PC) All in my opinion of course.
Maybe thats the idea eventually betfair will be dealing with a handful of people/companies and the PC issue can be dealt face to face. |
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When was cross matching in football introduced?
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Sometime last year wasn't it?
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It was while ago dont know when. Problably at same time as wiljons thread would imagine. will have a look
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Wiljons (god bless him) posted on 06 Mar 08
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wiljons actual example in his first post is Match Odds - Football
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Again from wiljons thread
the percentage on the back side read 102.9 the percentage on the lay side read 95.7 [:)][smiley:crazy][:(] ![]() You havent seen a spread like that anytime recently on any footy game of note, Man U tonight its 100.7 - 99.3 |
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I see, thanks. So it was here before I started betting here.
I don't usually bet in Match Odds but find plenty of large spreads elsewhere. |
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So i take it that we have all finally agreed that this is a good thing
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If you cant price the market within a few precent ie a regular punter have to admit its a good thing for them. Since money goes round longer betfair take more + the skim bit, so good for them
For the handful of very good players not 100% sure they arent hedging from elsewhere anyway. The "middle classes" get hit, There is the swedish company in football and non racing markets, maybe racing will be bit better as they dont have to deal with a very big and very good player already. all in my opinion, just guessing really, just speculating for fun |
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the swedish company work on 0.5% margain if anyone doesnt know, They are quite helpful in that they publish accounts
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According the the GC's report they started out 18 Feb 2008 , dunno what date they admiited to it though, rocket
http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/gh-media/latest_news/2008/betfair_limited_betfair_and.aspx Cross matching was introduced without informing customers in advance. BGB made revenues of approximately £300,000 from the inception of cross matching until the end of March 2008. They made £300K from 18/2/08 to 31/03/08 and I doubt they were live over many markets during that initial period. |
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Although to be fair it's only entered as revenues not necessarily profit on the x matching
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By: Ghetto Joe
Date Joined: 24 Jan 05 Add contact | Send message When: 29 Nov 10 19:53 Pre-play racing cross-matching trial Betfair Customer Services Following the successful launch of cross-matching on in-play racing markets, there will be a trial of cross-matching on pre-play racing markets. On Tuesday 30th November, cross-matching will be turned on in all of the win markets at Lingfield Park. It will be switched on at around 8am and should remain on until the end of the race. We don’t expect customers to notice any material difference in the way the markets operate at Lingfield Park. There has been no announcement yet whether this was successful or whether this will be going ahead in the future? I assume the non-runner issue isn't that great a problem if they are trialling (don't fully understand implications - I need to put some thought in) but I am not expecting we will get much notice of pending "going live" (for a change lol). |
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Having just given this a bit more thought, I can see this as being a small benefit to the majority of punters, including the pro's (for pre-race cross matching) mainly because the majority of the time the books are overround and as such the cross matching isn't initiated. When the books do go underround the service betfair could provide would benefit the positional player's as they are more likely to get a better price (instead of going to the overround/underround bot operators). Perhaps positional players who "ask" for prices could lose out slightly but I'd expect this to be more a case of "swings and roundabouts"? Am happy to be proved wrong, I don't bet as much on the nags as other sports but enough for this to be of concern.
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has this cross-matching been done on the horse racing place markets as well? because that would be an even more extreme example of gaps in the prices it seems to me and where betfair would like to increase liquidity.
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they will only fill the gaps in if they can match a bet for no loss or nick a fraction on it,then they get commision of the winner as well not bad work if you can get it imo.....
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Pre-Play I doubt they make much, few pence here and their ,Markets
are too quiet early on I think the risk outweighs the reward , Just takes an outsider to refuse to go into the stalls 0% Reduction & Lay side would have a big red Non Runners not in line with the reduction factor could be costly In-Play must be a massive earner though |
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I don't bet as much on the nags as other sports but enough for this to be of concern.
All other sports have had the cross matching for months, so you should be used to it! |
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Lori that is true, I am perhaps penny pinching as this is the only sport I bet on which has numerous runners/selections. I.e., The Investor explained earlier (on this thread I think or 100k one?) how he tries to ensure he gets best execution by placing one side of the bet before the other. I do something similar but in markets with more than about 3 possible outcomes it becomes extremely difficult to do that kind of execution if you wish to stake to a certain amount.
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Cross matching now on the Australian Markets
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I've seen two people say that now, can you direct me to the post where it says it please as I appear to be being rather dumb
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Hi Lori
Its under Australian on the Sports Forum Menu |
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Thanks al.
Fairly obvious in hindsight, although I'm betting on the Ashes and there's no announcement in cricket OR in service. Got it now. |
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Yeah it took me a while to find it. I was wondering why there was no overounds when the first 2 wickets went so I looked back through the ashes thread and someone had posted it up. I thought it would have been in the Service posts TBH.
I asked Betfair why they were not using XM on the Australian Markets last year and they said they did not have approval from the Australian Regulator. |