Getting lays matched

  yet another idiot invented by the firm

Is this an insider joke???

who would want to lay a grand on a midweek seller?

welcome to where the cynics sleep

If the stats Im workin off tell me that there is a high percentage chance that the horse will lose then if my bank allows it then i would lay that amount. Im not asking whether you think im mad or not (I probably am) but as to whether its possible to do.

Im a newcomer to Betfair not horses so have a good knowledge base to work off. I just dont have any experience of Betfair and am just looking for some advise from some people who do. Surely you all started your laying career somewhere. I am planning on trialing for another 3 months before i even think about acting but so far so good (88% hit rate from over 500 horses with SP's no greater that 10)

learn money management techniques first.

just because you perceive the bet as "value", does not mean you can go 'all-in' upon it.

plenty of material available in poker books [concept the same]

HTH

I understand the value concept and i will not be going all in. My stake is only 1% of my bank so that absolute max i could ever lose on 1 horse is 10% of my bank. The query re the amount is only applicable if my system turns out to be a huge success, not likely but who knows. My stakes to begin will be €50 which I know i will be able to get matched.

With respect of the value concept, if i think a horse will lose and the odds im willing to take arent crazy (are within 1 or 2 points of what i think the odds should be) then i wouldnt have a problem laying the horse.

Hypothetically can anyone answer my questions!!!

Anyone got an answer for a beginner???

Cheers mate, appreciate it!

c98bf0ca
If your gonna risk 10% of your bank on one bet please start playing.

3381391562, why don't you play your method with smaller stakes and watch the markets? That'll show you where the volumes limit you.

I know this is probably a stupid question but how do u watch the markets? If my small lay is matched, how do i know how much more i couldve gotten matched???

Im not going to risk 10% of my bank regularly but yes that would be the worst case scenario.

Can someone explain in laymans terms how laying works in a scenario where when you go to lay a particular horse at lets say 6.2 and there is €50 available to be matched at those odds, but i want to match €100, how do i ensure the additional €50 is matched.

Please this really is a novice here, looking for some basic info.

You cant ensure anything mate,you would have to lay next tick up etc or risk not being matched.If you are happy with bet let it go inlay as odds USUALLY go up and down in race.There are a million methods which I know very few not much help but hey I tried.

Junglist  is right .. put in bigger odds  you will get matched .. but you have to be sure  the nag will get beat   other wise  ouch .
same with  betting  say a horse is  4.5  4.4  4.0 3.9   put your bet in at 3.9.. you will jump the queue  the trick   is backing or laying is not to be greedy .. hope this helps

Everyone would be happy to lay at SP. The reality is that you can't guarantee getting your bet matched.

If you want to lay at 6.2, but there's only half of what you want available, you have to leave the rest of your stake on at that price and hope that it will be taken.

If the price drifts, you won't get matched. If it shortens, you will. But you can't guarantee it.

High street Bookies and all there cost ,would not exist if you could lay at sp all the time ,we %would all like the sp lay edge , i think all things being equal , the Bookie expects to make 17% on his turn over before overheads  ,not bad if you can get it .

that is right,  put in bigger odds and you will get matched,
without being foolish of course, but you can't always afford to be too price sensitive,
the important thing is to get your bet matched.

Thanks guys for your responses. It all makes sense when you explain it like that. For me, my problem is getting into the mindset of being the bookie rather than being on the other side of the fence. Is there anywhere online or a book even that would be good for a beginner to the laying game to read (A betfair for Dummies!). I dont want to be risking my cash until i fully understand what im doing. Like I said I'm pretty confident with the horses I'm picking to lay and my staking, what i need now is to learn the next step, laying at reasonable odds and getting matched.

Cheers again.

Wur  .. you are wrong   take it your dont have the time  to sit in front of the  computrs all day .. well you can put a back or lay in at  betfair  S/P ..   any race  any day any were   so stick that in your pipe and smoke it

Use auto drip feeding bot with a feature to resubmit remaining part of your bet as SP bet, for instance 30 seconds before official race off.

There is a Betfair for Dummies,have a look on Amazon.

So there is. Cheers Norton. Has anyone read it and would recommend it. Is there any material on just the laying of horses as that's all I will be using betfair for?

Stefanbelo, what is a bot and where can I find information on this particular one?

Cheers

" For me, my problem is getting into the mindset of being the bookie rather than being on the other side of the fence........

I dont want to be risking my cash until i fully understand what im doing. "

1) Agree about the mindset thing, your in a different frame of mind as a layer.

The Backer goes for high profit at low probability of success.
The Layer goes for low profit at high probability of success.

2) As for risking your cash, keep the stakes small until you know what your doing.
Experience really, don't think a Betfair for Dummies book will help you a lot.

Don't bet in large amounts until your clear about what your doing.

Good Luck.

Thanks Tell Del.

c98, If you want to lay something with the backer's stake being £100, but there is only £50 there at the available to lay price,  just enter £100 and you will take the £50 and the other £50 will appear on the 'to back' square for someone to bet on if they want.

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you can't always afford to be too price sensitive,
the important thing is to get your bet matched.


Would say the opposite myself. The Maria Laying Thread (which i don't believe is genuine) mentioned in the opening post is the best example of that: The apparent success - £3,000-£100,000 - was determined by the very low prices she claimed to have been matched at. Add 7-8% to the price of each lay and there would have been no profit at all.

If you lay horses on the basis that 'it won't win' , then it seems no big deal if you lay at 6.4 or 6.8.In the long term though the prices you are laying at will be the only thing that matters.

As an example:

2 Punters lay 5,000 horses over a year .

They both lay exactly the same horses.

85% of their lays lose . 15% win.

They both pay 2% commission.

After Commission they both return £416,500 from the races where their lays were beaten.

The only difference is A lays at an average of 6.4 ,B averages 6.8.

Results

A: +£11,500

B: -£18,500

For me, my problem is getting into the mindset of being the bookie rather than being on the other side of the fence

If you can get into the mindset that backing and laying are actually the same thing it will help enormously.

Tobermory,

I take your point but surely for profits sake the only average that matters is the average odds taken on the horses that went on to win their races. In this case 750 horses won their races and chances are a good proportion of these horses wouldve been layed at odds at the skinnier end of the scale (If horses at the top of the market are being layed). In my case (In my trial) the average odds Im laying to is 5.5 but the average odds of my losers (horses winning) is 4.2.

I take your point that odds matched is important to your overall bottom line, but I would've thought that over the course of the year it would average itself out, getting matched before price contracts/getting matched before price goes out. Also to give the layer an advantage he can use his knowledge to anticipate the movement in the market.

Maybe I'm wrong....................

the average odds Im laying to is 5.5 but the average odds of my losers (horses winning) is 4.2.

Yes, it don't matter wether the ones that get beat were 100 or 10, you get the backer's stake .

But if you are using the same selection criteria over time the average odds of the winners/losers will be much the same.

  if i think a horse will lose and the odds im willing to take arent crazy (are within 1 or 2 points of what i think the odds should be) then i wouldnt have a problem laying the horse.

The '1 or 2 pts' will be your downfall.

You say you are using stats to work out the % chance of a horse losing, so surely only lay those that the market gives a better chance of winning than your estimates.

I wish I was that expert and had that much time to prepare my own tissue prices for every race but unfortunately I dont. I just use criteria which I used when I backed horses (to cut the field down to horses that I think could win the race. I suppose in a way I do challenge Market odds by looking at morning prices, and pick horses at the head of the Market which I don't agree should be there but as far as knowing whether a horse should be 4/1 or 9/2 I wouldn't know how to do that.

Cheers for your advise though. Any other tips feel free to share.

c98bf0ca J - My knowledge of laying horses is very limited.....but if you have kept a record of your selections for laying, then why not check the stats to see how LOW the odds went to IR on BF.

All the data you need to check results is on BF under heading

Horseracing

Form/Results

Just click on Form/Results and you enter TIMEFORM records ....and it is free too!!!!


Once you have gathered your information, you might find a way to do what you want to do by LAYING IR......

GL with bets.

C98, you asked in your 05:36 post, "How do I watch the market", i didnt see any answers for you, you can pay monthly subscription to a few API's but for looking at the market you should get the "Geeks Toy". its free & easy to use, it gives you the whole market as it happens, go to utube & watch some videos. There is plenty more API's to shoose from but for what your describing id advise taking a look at the toy

C98, google: "auto drip feeding bot" and it will get you to Bot Executor that includes this type of bot, and many other ones.

ttt

Nice to have you on board, c98bf0ca

Remember, we were all beginners once.  You may encounter some cynicism on here, but just ignore these people and do your own thing. You will be surprised how often you get matched when you didn't expect to.

Ok, so about to go live. After a further 5 months of paper trading and an 85% success rate I think i'm ready to hopefully make profits!!! Since posting, i have been keeping a closer eye on the movement of prices on selections from picking them early in morning to betfair sp and 75% of selections in morning when lay will be made have gone out in price from the start of the day so that fills me with confidence that i will be getting value with my lays. I want to thank you all again for your advice and ill make sure to check back in to let you know how i get on. Thankfully after a successful Cheltenham my bank will be mainly made up with Paddy, William and Victors money so i wont be sending myself to the poorhouse even if it all goes tits up!!!