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Compound Magic
22 Oct 10 03:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 May 06
| Topic/replies: 764 | Blogger: Compound Magic's blog
Sacrifice profitability for consistency?

If I leave out selections over 16.00 I make 20% less
overall profit but make a profit every month.

If I include selections over 16.00 I make more overall
profit but occasionally have 3 or 4 months with no profit.

any opinions welcomed.
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Report shiraz October 22, 2010 5:20 AM BST
Include selections.

Many years from now, whilst sitting on the beach, they will be paying for those drinks with the little umbrellas in them.
Report Lori October 22, 2010 10:52 AM BST
Depends on life circumstances I guess. I'd try to get as many 16+ shots in there as I possibly could if I wasn't going to die in the meantime
Report Escapee October 22, 2010 11:36 AM BST
Sacrifice profitability for consistency?


Scaleability of stake size:
Are the bet sizes limited by the bank roll size or has the bet size already reached the ammount the market will take at the price ?

Utility of Money:
The utility value of £100 for a pauper is different to its utility value for a millionaire.
So how significant is the increased variance in relation to the individuals utility of money ?

Psychology of the bettor:
Variance induces stress and other emotions in humans.
Winning 'at life' ( i.e. general happiness ) is often attributed to the ability to cope with stress, and the percentage of time spent in a stressed state.
So how well does the bettor handle variance ?


when you take those three factors into consideration you will likely come up with different answers depending on the individual who is asking the question.
Report Compound Magic October 22, 2010 11:43 AM BST
Thanks for the replies.

I saw your comment Lori on another thread Grin
Report Compound Magic October 22, 2010 11:45 AM BST
Thanks for the replies.
Noted your comment Lori on another thread. Grin
Report Compound Magic October 22, 2010 11:46 AM BST
This reply posting is not working properly

Hence the duplication.
Report Compound Magic October 22, 2010 12:53 PM BST
Escapee, Good post. Some good points there.

I can see that if you have reached maximum scalability and now have a smaller % liability of bank
per bet or lay it would be okay to include long shots.

If however, you were just starting out, safety and smaller profits at a more regular intervals
would be more likely lead to better discipline and less stress.

Cheers
Report Trevh October 22, 2010 6:16 PM BST
CM, are you allowed to bet in-running yet (I think you're in Oz?) or place a lay at 2.0 pre off & keep bets? If so, have you looked at the results as if they had been greened at evens? I've seen high odds bets (16.0+) hit evens in running and lose ten times in a row, hence the long losing spells, then the opposite - hit evens and win 10 times in a row. Also could be worth looking at backing them at half their starting odds and see what would have happened, which sounds perverse I know.
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