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Compound Magic
22 Oct 10 03:44
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Date Joined: 27 May 06
| Topic/replies: 764 | Blogger: Compound Magic's blog
Sacrifice profitability for consistency?

If I leave out selections over 16.00 I make 20% less
overall profit but make a profit every month.

If I include selections over 16.00 I make more overall
profit but occasionally have 3 or 4 months with no profit.

any opinions welcomed.

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Replies: 8
By:
shiraz
When: 22 Oct 10 05:20
Include selections.

Many years from now, whilst sitting on the beach, they will be paying for those drinks with the little umbrellas in them.
By:
Lori
When: 22 Oct 10 10:52
Depends on life circumstances I guess. I'd try to get as many 16+ shots in there as I possibly could if I wasn't going to die in the meantime
By:
Escapee
When: 22 Oct 10 11:36
Sacrifice profitability for consistency?


Scaleability of stake size:
Are the bet sizes limited by the bank roll size or has the bet size already reached the ammount the market will take at the price ?

Utility of Money:
The utility value of £100 for a pauper is different to its utility value for a millionaire.
So how significant is the increased variance in relation to the individuals utility of money ?

Psychology of the bettor:
Variance induces stress and other emotions in humans.
Winning 'at life' ( i.e. general happiness ) is often attributed to the ability to cope with stress, and the percentage of time spent in a stressed state.
So how well does the bettor handle variance ?


when you take those three factors into consideration you will likely come up with different answers depending on the individual who is asking the question.
By:
Compound Magic
When: 22 Oct 10 11:43
Thanks for the replies.

I saw your comment Lori on another thread Grin
By:
Compound Magic
When: 22 Oct 10 11:45
Thanks for the replies.
Noted your comment Lori on another thread. Grin
By:
Compound Magic
When: 22 Oct 10 11:46
This reply posting is not working properly

Hence the duplication.
By:
Compound Magic
When: 22 Oct 10 12:53
Escapee, Good post. Some good points there.

I can see that if you have reached maximum scalability and now have a smaller % liability of bank
per bet or lay it would be okay to include long shots.

If however, you were just starting out, safety and smaller profits at a more regular intervals
would be more likely lead to better discipline and less stress.

Cheers
By:
Trevh
When: 22 Oct 10 18:16
CM, are you allowed to bet in-running yet (I think you're in Oz?) or place a lay at 2.0 pre off & keep bets? If so, have you looked at the results as if they had been greened at evens? I've seen high odds bets (16.0+) hit evens in running and lose ten times in a row, hence the long losing spells, then the opposite - hit evens and win 10 times in a row. Also could be worth looking at backing them at half their starting odds and see what would have happened, which sounds perverse I know.
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