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General Betting
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22 Oct 10
03:44
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Date Joined:
27 May 06
Sacrifice profitability for consistency?
If I leave out selections over 16.00 I make 20% less
overall profit but make a profit every month.
If I include selections over 16.00 I make more overall
profit but occasionally have 3 or 4 months with no profit.
any opinions welcomed.
If I leave out selections over 16.00 I make 20% less
overall profit but make a profit every month.
If I include selections over 16.00 I make more overall
profit but occasionally have 3 or 4 months with no profit.
any opinions welcomed.
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Replies: 8
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Include selections.
Many years from now, whilst sitting on the beach, they will be paying for those drinks with the little umbrellas in them. |
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Depends on life circumstances I guess. I'd try to get as many 16+ shots in there as I possibly could if I wasn't going to die in the meantime
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Sacrifice profitability for consistency?
Scaleability of stake size: Are the bet sizes limited by the bank roll size or has the bet size already reached the ammount the market will take at the price ? Utility of Money: The utility value of £100 for a pauper is different to its utility value for a millionaire. So how significant is the increased variance in relation to the individuals utility of money ? Psychology of the bettor: Variance induces stress and other emotions in humans. Winning 'at life' ( i.e. general happiness ) is often attributed to the ability to cope with stress, and the percentage of time spent in a stressed state. So how well does the bettor handle variance ? when you take those three factors into consideration you will likely come up with different answers depending on the individual who is asking the question. |
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Thanks for the replies.
I saw your comment Lori on another thread  |
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Thanks for the replies.
Noted your comment Lori on another thread. |
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This reply posting is not working properly
Hence the duplication. |
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Escapee, Good post. Some good points there.
I can see that if you have reached maximum scalability and now have a smaller % liability of bank per bet or lay it would be okay to include long shots. If however, you were just starting out, safety and smaller profits at a more regular intervals would be more likely lead to better discipline and less stress. Cheers |
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CM, are you allowed to bet in-running yet (I think you're in Oz?) or place a lay at 2.0 pre off & keep bets? If so, have you looked at the results as if they had been greened at evens? I've seen high odds bets (16.0+) hit evens in running and lose ten times in a row, hence the long losing spells, then the opposite - hit evens and win 10 times in a row. Also could be worth looking at backing them at half their starting odds and see what would have happened, which sounds perverse I know.
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