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Can anyone tell me why the major bookmakers don't use this exchange to offer their lays. I just can't understand why there are still a lot of markets which are untradeable on the exchange.
One example is the Bohemians v Shamrock game currently being played, the match odds market is healthy as usual and the 1.5/2.5 goals markets but the correct score market is all over the place. It's 1-0 at the moment and apart from this score, 1-1 and 2-0 the prices for the rest of the scores are very poor, basically trap bets. They are around the 2.5 mark to back and over 50 to lay.
I looked at the Lad blokes site and they are offering their lays on this game, of course they are poor value prices but at least they are somewhere near the true prices.
Why don't they assign one of their raders to copy the prices onto Betfair and increase their customer base.
There are hundreds of poor markets like this all day, side markets or unpoppular sports.
Companies market make the exchange games, providing liquidity, why doesn't the same happen with sports.
I know I will get replies of...why don't you do it then?
just offer the price you want etc etc.
Well I haven't got the funds to market make and provide liquidity and if I offer the odds I want I very rarely get matched due to the fact most ignore these markets due to the current state of them, over run with bots with silly trap bets.
Of course Betfair is great for laying and acting the bookmaker but as far as having a bet on an obscure market the bookies win hands own, worse value in most cases but at least the prices are available for all selections.
I would be very interested to hear what you all think, thanks.
One example is the Bohemians v Shamrock game currently being played, the match odds market is healthy as usual and the 1.5/2.5 goals markets but the correct score market is all over the place. It's 1-0 at the moment and apart from this score, 1-1 and 2-0 the prices for the rest of the scores are very poor, basically trap bets. They are around the 2.5 mark to back and over 50 to lay.
I looked at the Lad blokes site and they are offering their lays on this game, of course they are poor value prices but at least they are somewhere near the true prices.
Why don't they assign one of their raders to copy the prices onto Betfair and increase their customer base.
There are hundreds of poor markets like this all day, side markets or unpoppular sports.
Companies market make the exchange games, providing liquidity, why doesn't the same happen with sports.
I know I will get replies of...why don't you do it then?
just offer the price you want etc etc.
Well I haven't got the funds to market make and provide liquidity and if I offer the odds I want I very rarely get matched due to the fact most ignore these markets due to the current state of them, over run with bots with silly trap bets.
Of course Betfair is great for laying and acting the bookmaker but as far as having a bet on an obscure market the bookies win hands own, worse value in most cases but at least the prices are available for all selections.
I would be very interested to hear what you all think, thanks.
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Apart from the fact of what's in it for the bookies to boost BF's business turnover, I don't know the answer.
It does seem as though there are plenty of seeding opportunities for a well capitalized punting oriented investor.
Why they are not taking advantage, I'm not sure, just like you aren't.
It does seem as though there are plenty of seeding opportunities for a well capitalized punting oriented investor.
Why they are not taking advantage, I'm not sure, just like you aren't.
WHAT EVER PRICE THE BOOKIES OR ANY OTHER PERSON LAYED THE BOTTS WOULD GUZZUMP YOU
If Ladbrokes are offering 4/5 on Over 2.5 and the price on here is 1.3 to back and 2.6 to lay or whatever, what can they do?
If they offer 1.7-1.8 people won't take it as they can get that commission free at Ladbrokes,so they just wouldn't get matched.
If they offer 1.7-1.8 people won't take it as they can get that commission free at Ladbrokes,so they just wouldn't get matched.
thanks for the replies...
I realise now from your comments the reasons why.
Regarding the bots on these markets, why are they so concerned in trap bets...offering silly prices hoping for mistakes/stupidity...when they surely would be better offering better prices which are still very good value to them.
I'm sure that someone with a huge bank roll could make a deal with Betfair for a very low commission rate to pump money into these unpopular/illiquid markets, which is the case with the exchange games.
I realise now from your comments the reasons why.
Regarding the bots on these markets, why are they so concerned in trap bets...offering silly prices hoping for mistakes/stupidity...when they surely would be better offering better prices which are still very good value to them.
I'm sure that someone with a huge bank roll could make a deal with Betfair for a very low commission rate to pump money into these unpopular/illiquid markets, which is the case with the exchange games.
I think anyone with a huge bank roll will find better use of their time elsewhere rather than monitoring a low liquidity market for a couple of hours and maybe make a few quid.
tobermory....
If they concistantly pumped money into these markets and basically wiped out the trap bots/bets I feel they would get bets matched whether their shop price is better value to the customer or not.
The majority of bettors on here will take any price as long as it falls within a bracket they are comfortable with and also like to keep all their beting activity on Betfair even if better prices are available elsewhere.
You can see all the forum chats regarding the correct score market, overs/unders markets, how many are actually compiling prices for their selections.....they will look at the stats for the next game, choose to lay lets say 2-0 and load up the market, they will lay that selection as long as it falls within their bracket...say anything upto 20.0
I'm not saying everybody works this way, but the majority do...hence the percentage of losers.
If they concistantly pumped money into these markets and basically wiped out the trap bots/bets I feel they would get bets matched whether their shop price is better value to the customer or not.
The majority of bettors on here will take any price as long as it falls within a bracket they are comfortable with and also like to keep all their beting activity on Betfair even if better prices are available elsewhere.
You can see all the forum chats regarding the correct score market, overs/unders markets, how many are actually compiling prices for their selections.....they will look at the stats for the next game, choose to lay lets say 2-0 and load up the market, they will lay that selection as long as it falls within their bracket...say anything upto 20.0
I'm not saying everybody works this way, but the majority do...hence the percentage of losers.
Betfair could even delve into this as they have in other markets.
They could easily assign a team to market make these markets, if bots gazump their price then fair enough but at least the prices will now be nearing a competetive price.
They could easily assign a team to market make these markets, if bots gazump their price then fair enough but at least the prices will now be nearing a competetive price.
jasp Joined: 07 Nov 07
Replies: 15 06 Oct 10 09:50
Betfair could even delve into this as they have in other markets.
They could easily assign a team to market make these markets, if bots gazump their price then fair enough but at least the prices will now be nearing a competetive price.
I'm surprisd they dont, with betfair italy, betfair multiples & betfair high rollers service they certainly have the bookmaking experience to do this now. I know some people have an issue with betfair trading on the exchange, but if no one is offering the lays and liquidity then I dont see a problem with betfair doing this themselves.
Replies: 15 06 Oct 10 09:50
Betfair could even delve into this as they have in other markets.
They could easily assign a team to market make these markets, if bots gazump their price then fair enough but at least the prices will now be nearing a competetive price.
I'm surprisd they dont, with betfair italy, betfair multiples & betfair high rollers service they certainly have the bookmaking experience to do this now. I know some people have an issue with betfair trading on the exchange, but if no one is offering the lays and liquidity then I dont see a problem with betfair doing this themselves.
You're prob right Eddie, just feel that this is an issue Betfair need to look into which would be beneficial to both themselves and their customers.
This is where bookmakers win hands down....if I wanted a bet on an obscure market or a 'side' market to a popular sport then I could go to a bookmakers and they would take my bet no problem. Of course the price will likely to be poor value but the bet could be placed. People moan that you can't get large amounts on with bookmakers but has anyone ever managed to get £500 matched on any of these illiquid Betfair markets?
If I loaded up the market on Betfair to place my bet I would be presented with a list of trap bets at ridiculous prices. I could indeed offer my bet but it will rarely be matched, due to the fact imo that people just ignore these illiquid markets or are put off by the state of them and see my bet as simply another trap bet amongst the others.
If Betfair got involved then they could just set their prices as a base, if anyone offered better prices then they wouldn't try and better them, just have their money waiting. It would make these markets more liquid and will enable more betting activity on these markets.
This is where bookmakers win hands down....if I wanted a bet on an obscure market or a 'side' market to a popular sport then I could go to a bookmakers and they would take my bet no problem. Of course the price will likely to be poor value but the bet could be placed. People moan that you can't get large amounts on with bookmakers but has anyone ever managed to get £500 matched on any of these illiquid Betfair markets?
If I loaded up the market on Betfair to place my bet I would be presented with a list of trap bets at ridiculous prices. I could indeed offer my bet but it will rarely be matched, due to the fact imo that people just ignore these illiquid markets or are put off by the state of them and see my bet as simply another trap bet amongst the others.
If Betfair got involved then they could just set their prices as a base, if anyone offered better prices then they wouldn't try and better them, just have their money waiting. It would make these markets more liquid and will enable more betting activity on these markets.
on the ip markets the bookies own website delay will allow them to accept or reject a bet several seconds after you have placed it, enabling them to reconsider, based on event changes. If they left bets on here, they would be forever cancelling them and putting them back up again every time the ball went near the goal or a hard tackle went in or whatever.
I'm forever having odds changed or bets not allowed due to a suspension on their sites as they are frequently behind the action, particularly in minority sports, like snooker or basketball.
I suspect that they fear being sniped because their traders have to cover so many events at one time.
In essence, they are just not sharp enough to compete on here. Maybe because of their workload or maybe because they really aren't that sharp.
I'm forever having odds changed or bets not allowed due to a suspension on their sites as they are frequently behind the action, particularly in minority sports, like snooker or basketball.
I suspect that they fear being sniped because their traders have to cover so many events at one time.
In essence, they are just not sharp enough to compete on here. Maybe because of their workload or maybe because they really aren't that sharp.
Just like an auction where items are being offered, the same people are offering £5 for an item worth £100, Betfair offer £50 to get the ball rolling, the people who were offering £5 can now offer higher than £50 or anybody else who wishes to get involved, at least the lowest offer will be £50 no matter what.
There's too many markets on here with hardly any activity, Betfair decide to get involved in markets which don't need their involvement when illiquid markets are the problem.
They could at least offer lower commission levels on these particular markets to get punters interested.
There's too many markets on here with hardly any activity, Betfair decide to get involved in markets which don't need their involvement when illiquid markets are the problem.
They could at least offer lower commission levels on these particular markets to get punters interested.
jasp 06 Oct 10 11:10
They could at least offer lower commission levels on these particular markets to get punters interested.
Agreed, jasp. Especially as the lack of liquidity means that users who like to green (or red) up and traders will rarely touch them for fear of being left with a bet that they don't really want. Also, as was pointed out earlier, the odds are often inferior to the high street anyway.
Furthermore, the presence of the premium charge means that the reduced commission on these markets would be made up in any case.
They could at least offer lower commission levels on these particular markets to get punters interested.
Agreed, jasp. Especially as the lack of liquidity means that users who like to green (or red) up and traders will rarely touch them for fear of being left with a bet that they don't really want. Also, as was pointed out earlier, the odds are often inferior to the high street anyway.
Furthermore, the presence of the premium charge means that the reduced commission on these markets would be made up in any case.
With the points you and others have made I realise the reasons behind there being no bookmaker involvement in these markets but I still feel there must be opportunities for a capitalised individual/team.
They could basically be the bookmaker for 25% of the markets on here and I'm sure they could avoid the premium charge, I would be surprised if they would be liable for it anyway.
If they had a model to work from, possibly having a program to automate bet placement, increasing/lowering prices, I feel it would be a project worth persueing
They could basically be the bookmaker for 25% of the markets on here and I'm sure they could avoid the premium charge, I would be surprised if they would be liable for it anyway.
If they had a model to work from, possibly having a program to automate bet placement, increasing/lowering prices, I feel it would be a project worth persueing
I think you are wrong. An automated bet placement programme offering competive prices inrunning would probably lose money with no person monitoring of the matches/events.
There's someone that does it on the purple site, Eddie and they've been doing it a while, so I guess they aren't losing money. That said, they seem to be much more selective about the markets they offer than they used to be and there's "free money" to be had from time to time, so they obviously don't have it all their own way.
I also suspect a bookmaker wouldnt want to have to put "trading activities on betfair" on their yearly results. It gives betfair a screw to turn and turns the bookies into massive hypocrytes when it comes to all their moaning at the GC to have betfair hung drawn and quartered.
1.01 , doesn't the purple seed their own markets ? And if it's them, they don't have to factor in commission. Actually , it could be profitable even with a small long term loss due to commission they collect from the other side of their bets.
Eddie....
It wouldn't be difficult to factor in goals, a sending off, time left etc. into an automated program.
When prices shorten due to pressure or chances I feel this where most of the value lies imo.
It wouldn't be difficult to factor in goals, a sending off, time left etc. into an automated program.
When prices shorten due to pressure or chances I feel this where most of the value lies imo.
I'm sometimes surprised at the size of the bank required to place so many bets, especially when there's not much liquidity, so you're probably right, Eddie.
jasp, not sure if you agree with me with your last post , but that is my point. An automated program can have the goals, a sending off and time left factors programmed in, but can't factor for changes in dominance , subs , injuries , extra time and anything else that may influence on prices. That's why I think it would lose long term.
You also have to factor in transaction charges for any automated programs, might sound good in theory but continually updating prices even automated will cost you if no ones taking your bets. Multiply that over the hundreds of markets available to play and it soon becomes an unsound strategy to look at low liquidity markets which lets face are low liquidity for a reason as few people are interested in them. So many markets on here are overblown with all the sub markets these days they just have the effect of removing liquidity from the main markets rather than increasing it.
good point Ghetto
I wasn't even thinking about the factors you have now mentioned Eddie and agree with you entirely, there would definetely need to be someone monitoring the matches and solely having an automated program running would be useless.
I wasn't even thinking about the factors you have now mentioned Eddie and agree with you entirely, there would definetely need to be someone monitoring the matches and solely having an automated program running would be useless.
Why don't bookies market make on low liquidity markets on here?
Why need bookies? With some basic math knowledge it is easy to to calculate odds for some side markets ( e.g. Correct score, more than x goals ) from Match Odds.
If you assume that the Match Odds market is right, and you offer back odds in illiquid side markets whith a stake more than 5% lower then the calculated stake from Match Odds market (Comission) and each matched bet will be a value bet for you.
If you limit feeding to pre inplay, no live feed is requiered and refresh rates can be lower than with InPlay markets.
I tried to feed illiquid side markets of soccer and tennis matches several times before, but failed because my bank size was too small.
Nobody was interested to take any of my bets in side markets with Back Book% of 110.
Why need bookies? With some basic math knowledge it is easy to to calculate odds for some side markets ( e.g. Correct score, more than x goals ) from Match Odds.
If you assume that the Match Odds market is right, and you offer back odds in illiquid side markets whith a stake more than 5% lower then the calculated stake from Match Odds market (Comission) and each matched bet will be a value bet for you.
If you limit feeding to pre inplay, no live feed is requiered and refresh rates can be lower than with InPlay markets.
I tried to feed illiquid side markets of soccer and tennis matches several times before, but failed because my bank size was too small.
Nobody was interested to take any of my bets in side markets with Back Book% of 110.
If you factor in 1) losing queue position to bots, and 2) losing the bet to courtsiders, it probably works out better to exploit any edge you have in the more liquid markets.
It's fatal to try to get a read IR off bookmakers' prices as anyone betting is always behind a trader's decision time. You can bet if it's poor value, not if (for any reason) the bet is in your favour. Of course, it's unlikely you will be able to get your poor-value offers matched on bf.
It's fatal to try to get a read IR off bookmakers' prices as anyone betting is always behind a trader's decision time. You can bet if it's poor value, not if (for any reason) the bet is in your favour. Of course, it's unlikely you will be able to get your poor-value offers matched on bf.
Another reason is bookies like to know who is betting with them. Their prices aren’t for everyone, I'm sure they wouldn’t want to lay lower / obscure league football bets to people they have closed for constantly winning on those markets.
thanks for your comments Askari...
how would you feel if Betfair involved themselves in these illiquid side markets?
how would you feel if Betfair involved themselves in these illiquid side markets?
I don’t know but I wonder how much account information the dept who lays Betfair multiples gets access to. Do they get to see all exchange bets or just those they are actively laying?
The Swedes don't compile their own odds though.
jasp, if you wanted odds on some obscure market, you could always ask on the forum will someone match me at x. People may not want to put their money up where it is unlikely to get matched, but if they know you are gonna match it they might be willing.
jasp, if you wanted odds on some obscure market, you could always ask on the forum will someone match me at x. People may not want to put their money up where it is unlikely to get matched, but if they know you are gonna match it they might be willing.
The Swedes do compile odds. They have a big staff to do just that, and when they do it they are prepared to go to a much thinner slice than any regular bookmaker.
How did they start? Where did the funding come from? And the software?
inner city sumo, unless they started doing that recently that's incorrect. It says in their own financial reports that they don't compile odds, but instead work with implied odds, I assume by using odds offered in match odds and correct score markets. They have less than 20 staff in total.
Rocket, their software has been created in house. I think capital was provided by JP Morgan and a Swedish Hedge fund among others. Not sure if that was at the start or later though.
Rocket, their software has been created in house. I think capital was provided by JP Morgan and a Swedish Hedge fund among others. Not sure if that was at the start or later though.
What exactly do this Swedish company do? Just lay at poor value prices? Is it them who lay the six figure sums int he short odds chelsea and man utd games?
Re.the swedes
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/16/market-making-on-betfair/
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/16/market-making-on-betfair/
I don't think it is them advocado, but whoever's doing that is making a killing. I'm assuming a select few are exploiting this in a meaningful sustained way.
Investor
Love that turn of phrase " ---in a meaningful sustained way ".
Love that turn of phrase " ---in a meaningful sustained way ".
Take Hungary v San Marino.
Some were able to back Hungary at 1.04. Backing them at 1.03 would still represent value and would lead to huge expected profit if you have a few hundred k lying around to trade.
If someone was able to compile odds accurately, they would also have been able to get matched laying Hungary at 1.01 and 1.02, again representing value.
Best of all they could get matched on both sides.
I backed Hungary at 1.03 and layed them at an average of 1.027 (before kick-off)
The trick is getting this right. If you put £200,000 up backing Hungary at 1.02, thinking they would trade at 1.01 to back and 1.02 to lay, you would have made an expensive error (obviously your bet would have been won, but if you went around placing bets giving odds that were too generous, you shouldn't expect to make money long term).
Some were able to back Hungary at 1.04. Backing them at 1.03 would still represent value and would lead to huge expected profit if you have a few hundred k lying around to trade.
If someone was able to compile odds accurately, they would also have been able to get matched laying Hungary at 1.01 and 1.02, again representing value.
Best of all they could get matched on both sides.
I backed Hungary at 1.03 and layed them at an average of 1.027 (before kick-off)
The trick is getting this right. If you put £200,000 up backing Hungary at 1.02, thinking they would trade at 1.01 to back and 1.02 to lay, you would have made an expensive error (obviously your bet would have been won, but if you went around placing bets giving odds that were too generous, you shouldn't expect to make money long term).
Many of the footy correct score markets would be/are unplayable without the market makers, they actually don't offer bad value at certain points (although you probably wont believe that) and as 1.01 layer says above, the markets without them are unplayable as you fear you'll be unable to green/red up your position so don't enter that market at all. I'm suprised BF don't seed them themselves.
Look at a market for total goals that's on next week, for example.
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=101823357&ex=1&origin=MRL
I think that's the Swedes. Putting in all these odd amounts to make it look like there's real activity there when in fact I'm sure that 90%+ of the money in the market is provided by one person/company, probably them.
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=101823357&ex=1&origin=MRL
I think that's the Swedes. Putting in all these odd amounts to make it look like there's real activity there when in fact I'm sure that 90%+ of the money in the market is provided by one person/company, probably them.
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