Both teams to score?

There is very little difference between 'both to score' and not.
The most likely 'both' is when the sides are as evenly matched
as possible, the worst being when we have a very short priced
favourite, but prices usually reflect it.

Livebetter, I have done a bit of research on this
and the reason you get your bets matched is because
'both to score' and 'unders' happen more often than
the opposite, historically 54% and 52% respectively.
I do agree that the regular punter is more likely to
bet on 'things happening' than otherwise, so with
that factor added in, I'm not surprised you get your
bets matched. GL.

That probability of a match ending "under" is related to how many goals the is expected to produce. The probability of both teams to score is related to the same, in addition to the relative strength of the teams. These are well known facts, and things I take in consideration.

What I so far don't have taken in consideration is the fact that the two events (one of the teams to score vs the other team to score) are interrelated. One team scoring may influence the chance of the other team scoring. This raises the probability of both teams scoring, and may explain why the odds I lay may be too attractive.

I've been out all day and will reply to your
last in the morning.

livebetter, sorry I have taken so long to answer
your thread but here goes. Both to score YES 54%
No 46%, respective average betting should be 1.84
and 2.20,Some matches will differ, depending on
who is playing who, but you can see that by offering
1.87 both, you will almost never lay NO.
Any more questions, just ask.

kenilworth you say nothing about HOW you've come to these numbers. I guess this is average numbers, but average in which leagues. The probability of a match ending "under" is related to how many goals the is expected to produce, which again depends on how many goals scored on average in that league.

Anyway. Average numbers are useless here. What matters is how many goals the game you bet on is expected to produce, which also varies. In addition the probability of both teams svoring is related to the relative strength of the teams.

I feel I'm repeating myself here. I suggest you read what I'm writing before you answer.

I've had another look at your opening post and I think you have made a mistake in
assuming ''both to score'' is a  50/50 and my research shows that is not. I checked
the 4 English leagues last season, over 2000 matches and found ''yes'' was 54% and the
''no'' was 46%, hence maybe the reason you get only the ''yes'' matched IMO. You may think the
sample is not big enough and therefore flawed, but that is up to you. Regards the overs/unders
the latter is historically stronger than it's opposite number 52% and 48% respectively.
You say you make a lot of money backing ''unders'' and good luck to you but I find that the
market gets it right 90% of the time, so perhaps I'm doing something wrong. I'm not sure from
your post what you want, but I hope my post is helpful. GL.

















Other bettors seem to believe that the probabillity of both teams to score is higher than it actually is. Or maybe I'm doing something wrong?

But it's also my experience when betting on over/unders that I almost always find value on under bets. And here I've been making profitts for a long time.

Most people just wont bet on teams not to score. Maybe because it's boring. An that's the reason I find value doing the opposite. Or is it that simple?

My opening post was an example.

"If I conclude that the correct line should be for example 2,00 on "yes" and 2,00 on "no", I lay on odds 1,87 on both"

Of course I don't assume there is a 50/50 % chance of both teams scoring. It all depends on the game.

Regarding over/unders. It doesn't matter if most games end over. I look at the expected chance of the game ending over/under and see it in comparison to the odds. Of course I don't blindly bet on unders on odds 2,00. If the chance of a game ending under is 48 % I only bet if the odds is better than 2,08 (2,08 x 48 = 2,08). I use a margin of 15 %, which means I bet on odds 2,24 or better if the chance of a spesific result is 48 %.

This is basic betting theory..

Livebetter, I've read your opening post AGAIN, after being
corrected by you, and the simple answer IMO, is ''It is that
simple''
You do what I do, except perhaps the way we arrive at our
bets may be a little different.
For the record, ''both to score'' YES, and ''Unders/Overs''
UNDERS are the most prevalant outcomes, according to my
research, 54% and 52% respectively.
You seem to do better than me, as I don't have many qualifiers
on the ''Unders'' market, but as you say, what I get are usually
''unders''. Having said that, I don't bet unless I have a 20%
margin, to cover commission and a bit of room for error. GL.

Ken, have you looked at how that 52% is divided up? I mainly play in the CS markets but am thinking of dabbling in the under 2.5 markets too, and my initial impression is the higher the under 2.5 odds the better the long term profit, but I haven't checked it out properly yet, just wondered if you have? My records show that international matches also appear to be good for unders profit.

Sorry, confused myself there, above post refers to laying high odds over 2.5 goals, so my initial impression is actually the lower the under 2.5 odds the better for backing i.e. overs backers have pushed the unders price too high even though they're 1.7 ish.

trevh, I have looked at the CS in conjunction with ''unders'' but
haven't been able to find any consistency. As ''unders'' is made
up of 6 correct scores it should be possible to separate those that
are better than others, 1-0 is better than 0-2 for instance, but
it's all about prices. I just stick to arriving at a price for ''unders''
checking the market, depending on that, maybe having a bet if there
is big enough diff. Last evening I had Switz/England at 1.90 for ''unders''
and it was 1.66 on here, clearly a bet indicated. Unfortunately in
2nd half at 0-1 I decided that there wasn't going to be two more goals
and closed out for a small profit, much to my chagrin, along came a red
card, two quick goals, the rest being history. GL with your CS betting.