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718
20 Aug 10 17:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 May 08
| Topic/replies: 4,835 | Blogger: 718's blog
If I don't bet for 6 months or so, will it go away?

I have no chance of making a profit with it - so I'll take a break if it'll help
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Report 1.01 Layer August 20, 2010 5:47 PM BST
I think it boils down to how much you can lose, thus generating commission for betfair.
Report The Investor August 20, 2010 6:28 PM BST
It never goes away, as the yearly allowance has been dropped. Why do you not have a chance to profit with it?

Although what you say is possible, it's more likely you don't properly understand the charge.
Report 718 August 20, 2010 6:57 PM BST
I don't make a profit every week and Betfair settle the charge every week

Therefore a weeks profit can't be offset against a previous weeks loss

e.g. if I make £2000 in week 1 and lose £800 in weeks 2 and 3 (after commission) I currently make £400

With the PC this would be reduced to no profit over 3 weeks

The way I bet means that I will lose
Report The Investor August 20, 2010 7:15 PM BST
That's only true from a short term point of view.

The commission you have paid in weeks 2 and 3 can be used to offset future Premium Charges. First of all the next £1600 you make will incur no PC at all, and even after that, the commission you have generated will delay the PC a little more.

In the long term you won't pay more than about 23% of your profit, unless you have a huge loss that you never recover from, in which case you won't get refunded. But this is a risk that exists with or without the PC.
Report 718 August 20, 2010 7:52 PM BST
Thanks Ivestor, I'll email Betfair with an extended scenario and see if they can tell me how much the charges will cost me
Report .Marksman. August 20, 2010 7:59 PM BST
Judging by the number of threads and comments made about the Premium Charge, I would say that it is the most controversial thing that Betfair have done. But it could be that people just keep leaving comments so that the threads stay at the top!
Report 718 August 20, 2010 8:02 PM BST
It's a bit of a bummer Marksman

You work on a system and then when it starts to pay you back for your work Betfair pull the plug

Surely there has to be some incentive to people starting that you can win money here
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:28 PM BST
what does your total charges read from the portal?
Report 718 August 20, 2010 8:35 PM BST
How do I find it? I can't see it
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:40 PM BST
https://account.betfair.com/regpay-myaccount/premiumcharge/summary.html

im guessing you must be right on the 20% mark with a volatile weekly p&l for it to affect you as much as you say
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:41 PM BST
and even so, i dont see how anyone can be in the pc bracket and not make money.
Report The Investor August 20, 2010 8:44 PM BST
With his original example, it's true he doesn't make money over that 3 week period due to PC. It's over a longer time frame that this problem dissappears.
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:46 PM BST
Hence you wouldnt be part of the pc. If he was borderline 20% and had the example above his lifetime gross p&l would drop below the 20% (still extremely profitable) and would incur the charge.
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:48 PM BST
would not incur the charge going forward.
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:49 PM BST
I still dont see how its a problem for anyone now with the lifetime gross p&l criteria.
Report The Investor August 20, 2010 8:54 PM BST
Yes, if it's a one off exceptionally good result. If he is nearing PC territory because his profitability has improved then it's a different story.

I lost nearly £10k in a week in July, and because of that I haven't paid PC since. I assume it's not that unusual for PC payers to have volatile P&Ls, especially as the PC encourages volatility because it can reduce charges. I've paid very little PC so far this year compared to 2009.
Report The Investor August 20, 2010 8:56 PM BST
When I'm in drawdown I take much less risk, and I haven't had a losing day in August.
Report modk August 20, 2010 8:58 PM BST
They pc in itself isnt gonna make turn you from being profitable to non-profitable as it stops being applied once you drop below 20%.

It can however affect certain people more adversely than others.
Report 718 August 20, 2010 9:03 PM BST
Thanks, as mentioned I'll send Betfair a scenario and if they tell me the PC I would have to pay, I'll see if it's viable to continue
Report .Marksman. August 20, 2010 9:05 PM BST
Yes, but to get down to below 20%, a PC payer may have to give a few thousand pounds to Betfair.  Seems very wrong to me.
Report modk August 20, 2010 9:07 PM BST
Im not defending the pc just highlighting the fact that the opening poster should be OK if he's in pc territory with the above example as he'll still be making money
Report catfloppo August 20, 2010 10:12 PM BST
PC doesn't make you lose.  It can mean you win less.
Report The Investor August 21, 2010 12:01 AM BST
That's true, it can't make you lose, but it can in some very rare cases make you unprofitable.
If you have high operating costs.


The original comment of "I have no chance of making a profit with it " could be true for some, but in this case it was obvious that this had nothing to do with high operating costs.
Report The Investor August 21, 2010 12:04 AM BST
For instance, I currently need to have my GP exceed to £2,400 per month (about 23% estimated trading fees). This theoretically covers my costs, and after that I start increasing equity.
Report turtleshead August 21, 2010 12:24 PM BST
PC can very easily make you lose, at least in the short /medium term.

Have a decent run, get clobbered, lose the lot, you will be a loser as a direct result of the pc. Not rocket science.
Report Fred! August 21, 2010 2:14 PM BST
Becoming a loser can very easily make you lose, at least in the short /medium term.

Have a decent run, get clobbered, lose the lot, you will be a loser as a direct result of becoming a loser. Not rocket science. Silly
Report turtleshead August 21, 2010 8:25 PM BST
Except for the minor point that the scenario which I described, which prior to pc could have meant that someone who previously broke even or even made a small profit, would become a loser.

Permanently so in fact, if it meant the person left as a result (which is hardly a far fetched outcome)
Report 1.01 Layer August 22, 2010 10:12 AM BST
I used to do loads of arbs and cross site trading which I will now only touch if they make at least 20%, which is fairly rare. 
As a result, that's probably about 5k a week which I used to punt on bf (win or lose) which I don't now. Sad
Report .Marksman. August 22, 2010 10:40 AM BST
1.01 Layer, traders like you (and  market makers) have been the life blood of Betfair.    Without traders and market makers, Betfair would never have succeeded in the first place. It is so obvious that the markets are now less efficient and that there is less money about. 5 years ago, bookies seemed to be in despair about Betfair, but now they are resurgent.
The rot set in after Kauto Star's owners' were paid a £1 million bonus by Betfair. Within weeks of doing this, they revised the commission structure, to claw back more money. Straight away, everyone was paying more commission. (With the exception of those on 5%, who stayed the same.)
As I see it, the only way to get things back to how they were, is to abolish the Premium Charge, and put every one on to one commission rate, with no exceptions. (This rate would be LESS THAN 5%)
Just think how much could be saved by Betfair in simplifying the system. No holidays to work out, no Premium Charge team wasting their time explaining the charge to disgruntle people, who still leave anyway etc.
Report catfloppo August 22, 2010 11:17 AM BST
Well, if that would work they would probably do it.  The current commission structure encourages high volume players and enables them to remain profitable even if their margins are tight - which if you think about it is likely for a big player.  Such players, notably, weren't affected by the change in the commission structure as well as those on 5%.
Report 1.01 Layer August 22, 2010 11:24 AM BST
Agreed Marksman, I don't think bf are doing themselves (or us)any favours in the long term with this overcomplicated and unequitable system.  It's all about eeking as much money out of the site as possible.

It's a small point but I think their attitude towards the money in our accounts is that it's basically theirs and they're just waiting for us to keep losing it to each other while they skim commission again and again.  This is borne out by the fact that they with draw the PC from our accounts without telling us.  Statements are irregular and they always come a day or two (or three) after the money's been taken.  If my bank deducted money from my account without telling me first, I'd close it.

In some ways, I'm grateful for the charge because it has forced me to develop new strategies and do a lot of my betting elsewhere, so not having all my eggs in one basket.  I can't believe that it hasn't driven a lot of liquidity away from the site but they are persisting with it so I guess the sums must add up on their side, even though you can't put a price on customer loyalty.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 22, 2010 11:59 AM BST
1.01 Layer, traders like you (and  market makers) have been the life blood of Betfair.    Without traders and market makers, Betfair would never have succeeded in the first place.

LaughLaughLaughLaugh


It is so obvious that the markets are now less efficient and that there is less money about. 5 years ago, bookies seemed to be in despair about Betfair, but now they are resurgent.

Maybe but, if anything, that's down to the fact betfair have stuck with their ridiculous trading interface and left bookmakers with the non-technical mided gamblers. Bookmakers get the oil and betfair the potatoes.


The rot set in after Kauto Star's owners' were paid a £1 million bonus by Betfair. Within weeks of doing this, they revised the commission structure, to claw back more money. Straight away, everyone was paying more commission. (With the exception of those on 5%, who stayed the same.)

There was no pc then when "the rot set in".


As I see it, the only way to get things back to how they were, is to abolish the Premium Charge, and put every one on to one commission rate, with no exceptions. (This rate would be LESS THAN 5%)

So the rot set in when they increased the average rate by a fraction but maybe doubling the existing average rate will cure the rot?


Just think how much could be saved by Betfair in simplifying the system. No holidays to work out, no Premium Charge team wasting their time explaining the charge to disgruntle people, who still leave anyway etc.

I agree. They should get rid of the existing trader friendly commission system and introduce a simplified gambler friendly one which will rid us of the parasitic traders at the same time.
Report turtleshead August 22, 2010 12:06 PM BST
Feck still spouting garbage about the traders who are responsible for making the site what it is, no change there I see LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report catfloppo August 22, 2010 12:23 PM BST
Getting rid of the commission discount system would reduce liquidity because it would make some strategies unprofitable.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 22, 2010 12:38 PM BST
Feck still spouting garbage about the traders who are responsible for making the site what it is, no change there I see

Turtltles "I'm paying 20% commission on each individual market" head still spouting garbage about winning traders being unjustly charged less than all other winners. No change there I see.
Report 1.01 Layer August 22, 2010 12:49 PM BST
In the ways that matter, it's a market like most others, feck.  What do you expect?  A few thousand clueless mugs offering each other all sorts of prices and about 5k matched on a footie match?
I agree that markets need regulating but as a general rule the free market does work, including this one.

This is only an exchange and, in essence fairly cheap to operate.  I'd be amazed if bf couldn't turn a profit just on the interest on deposits it receives.  All their other skimming just makes it more likely that a serious competitor will attract nigh on all their business with cheaper rates.  To be honest, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.
Report turtleshead August 22, 2010 12:53 PM BST
Winning traders do not get charged less than other winners, moron, hope this helps.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 22, 2010 12:59 PM BST
If tomorrow they stopped normal commission and said "from now on traders will pay 22.5% of their profits and gamblers will pay 50% of their profits in commission" who would be getting charged the least moron?
Report Feck N. Eejit August 22, 2010 1:04 PM BST
In the ways that matter, it's a market like most others, feck.  What do you expect?  A few thousand clueless mugs offering each other all sorts of prices and about 5k matched on a footie match?

That's certainly not what I would expect 1.01 Layer.


I agree that markets need regulating but as a general rule the free market does work, including this one.

It could work better though.


In the ways that matter, it's a market like most others, feck.  What do you expect?  A few thousand clueless mugs offering each other all sorts of prices and about 5k matched on a footie match?
I agree that markets need regulating but as a general rule the free market does work, including this one.

This is only an exchange and, in essence fairly cheap to operate.  I'd be amazed if bf couldn't turn a profit just on the interest on deposits it receives.  All their other skimming just makes it more likely that a serious competitor will attract nigh on all their business with cheaper rates.  To be honest, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.

The other exchanges charge traders much less than betfair do. Their big mistake is they charge gamblers more (initially at least). Since traders generally don't supply liquidity they've clearly got everything the wrong way round.
Report 1.01 Layer August 22, 2010 3:24 PM BST
Now I remember why I've ignored your posts for the last 12 months, Feck.  If you had a bit too much wine with your Sunday lunch, fair enough.  If not, I'm afraid you just come across as mental/daft.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 22, 2010 3:59 PM BST
Oh well, that's me told CryCryCry
Report MIB34 August 25, 2010 4:20 PM BST
Yes,  read  the T&C's...


I believe  if you trade in less that  140 markets  per year,  there is NO premium charge.
Report .Marksman. August 25, 2010 6:27 PM BST
That is incorrect...if you have bet on 250 markets in your lifetime, you could be eligible for the charge. This is fron the T&C:
and customers will only be considered for the Premium Charge after they have bet in more than 250 markets.
Report MIB34 August 29, 2010 10:19 PM BST
Thanks Marksman.


Ive  yet to be hit by the charge.
I tend  to trage less the 4 markes  per year..


But  when I do trade  Its Big !
Report turtleshead August 29, 2010 10:25 PM BST
250 markets lifetime, what a total farce.

They might just as well say "You will only be considered for Premium Charge if you bet on a day ending in Y"

Cry
Report .Marksman. August 29, 2010 11:42 PM BST
All I can say is that from Betfair's point of view, applying Premium Charge on me (on my previous account, which was closed down in disgust) has been counterproductive:  I have "generated" £5404.03 in commission, but paid only £420.72 in Premium Charge, due to me leaving once all my antepost markets had been settled (which took about 8 months).  Most of my business is now over on the purple site, but I have come back here for a few antepost markets that are not covered by the purple one. I am resigned to paying the charge again, but I now take less risks and try not to have large losing races.  Betfair were making much more off me in commission in the old days than they will today (even with commission and PC). If you want to see examples of how liquidity and over round have deteriated since the PC came in, look at the horse racing antepost markets. I used to lay good odds to 3 figure sums, occasionally 4. I made my books to tight margins and sometimes lost.  I was competing with other layers, who have now obviously gone for good since the charge came in.
For instance the Arc place market has an overround of about 560% at the moment, and has been for months. 2 years ago the overround varied between 315 and 330% and you could get 3 figure bets on.
Now, I have absoulutly no competition on that market and I can make my own prices up. But I have no inclination to offer any decent odds, due to the charge. I just take the mug money of small bettors (£3 or £4 a time). But that isn't the game that I really want to play.
Report turtleshead August 30, 2010 12:12 AM BST
Marksman, please don't give practical examples of how the pc has destroyed certain markets. Feck will be along in no time to say that people like you don't provide any liquidity, and that the site is better off without anyone who qualifies for the charge LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report .Marksman. August 30, 2010 9:38 AM BST
turtleshead, I think you are right there. I should have stuck to imaginary examples of traders who (somehow) never lose and never provide liquidity, and queue jumping and things like that. I will now admit that there have been occasions when I have "queue jumped" because I have wanted to lay a horse before someone else did.  There have been also been a small number of occasions in which I have traded.  I have just done what was necessary to make a profit.
Report turtleshead August 30, 2010 1:01 PM BST
That's much more like it. Cool

I think his alarm must not be working, it's been a week since he's been on the thread, and no-one can spout out a plethora of "ferengi/insiders/cheats/no liquidity/not paying fair share/city boy type" comments like he can! Grin
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