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718
20 Aug 10 17:44
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Date Joined: 08 May 08
| Topic/replies: 8,827 | Blogger: 718's blog
If I don't bet for 6 months or so, will it go away?

I have no chance of making a profit with it - so I'll take a break if it'll help

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Replies: 49
By:
1.01 Layer
When: 20 Aug 10 17:47
I think it boils down to how much you can lose, thus generating commission for betfair.
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Aug 10 18:28
It never goes away, as the yearly allowance has been dropped. Why do you not have a chance to profit with it?

Although what you say is possible, it's more likely you don't properly understand the charge.
By:
718
When: 20 Aug 10 18:57
I don't make a profit every week and Betfair settle the charge every week

Therefore a weeks profit can't be offset against a previous weeks loss

e.g. if I make £2000 in week 1 and lose £800 in weeks 2 and 3 (after commission) I currently make £400

With the PC this would be reduced to no profit over 3 weeks

The way I bet means that I will lose
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Aug 10 19:15
That's only true from a short term point of view.

The commission you have paid in weeks 2 and 3 can be used to offset future Premium Charges. First of all the next £1600 you make will incur no PC at all, and even after that, the commission you have generated will delay the PC a little more.

In the long term you won't pay more than about 23% of your profit, unless you have a huge loss that you never recover from, in which case you won't get refunded. But this is a risk that exists with or without the PC.
By:
718
When: 20 Aug 10 19:52
Thanks Ivestor, I'll email Betfair with an extended scenario and see if they can tell me how much the charges will cost me
By:
.Marksman.
When: 20 Aug 10 19:59
Judging by the number of threads and comments made about the Premium Charge, I would say that it is the most controversial thing that Betfair have done. But it could be that people just keep leaving comments so that the threads stay at the top!
By:
718
When: 20 Aug 10 20:02
It's a bit of a bummer Marksman

You work on a system and then when it starts to pay you back for your work Betfair pull the plug

Surely there has to be some incentive to people starting that you can win money here
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:28
what does your total charges read from the portal?
By:
718
When: 20 Aug 10 20:35
How do I find it? I can't see it
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:40
https://account.betfair.com/regpay-myaccount/premiumcharge/summary.html

im guessing you must be right on the 20% mark with a volatile weekly p&l for it to affect you as much as you say
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:41
and even so, i dont see how anyone can be in the pc bracket and not make money.
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Aug 10 20:44
With his original example, it's true he doesn't make money over that 3 week period due to PC. It's over a longer time frame that this problem dissappears.
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:46
Hence you wouldnt be part of the pc. If he was borderline 20% and had the example above his lifetime gross p&l would drop below the 20% (still extremely profitable) and would incur the charge.
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:48
would not incur the charge going forward.
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:49
I still dont see how its a problem for anyone now with the lifetime gross p&l criteria.
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Aug 10 20:54
Yes, if it's a one off exceptionally good result. If he is nearing PC territory because his profitability has improved then it's a different story.

I lost nearly £10k in a week in July, and because of that I haven't paid PC since. I assume it's not that unusual for PC payers to have volatile P&Ls, especially as the PC encourages volatility because it can reduce charges. I've paid very little PC so far this year compared to 2009.
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Aug 10 20:56
When I'm in drawdown I take much less risk, and I haven't had a losing day in August.
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 20:58
They pc in itself isnt gonna make turn you from being profitable to non-profitable as it stops being applied once you drop below 20%.

It can however affect certain people more adversely than others.
By:
718
When: 20 Aug 10 21:03
Thanks, as mentioned I'll send Betfair a scenario and if they tell me the PC I would have to pay, I'll see if it's viable to continue
By:
.Marksman.
When: 20 Aug 10 21:05
Yes, but to get down to below 20%, a PC payer may have to give a few thousand pounds to Betfair.  Seems very wrong to me.
By:
modk
When: 20 Aug 10 21:07
Im not defending the pc just highlighting the fact that the opening poster should be OK if he's in pc territory with the above example as he'll still be making money
By:
catfloppo
When: 20 Aug 10 22:12
PC doesn't make you lose.  It can mean you win less.
By:
The Investor
When: 21 Aug 10 00:01
That's true, it can't make you lose, but it can in some very rare cases make you unprofitable.
If you have high operating costs.


The original comment of "I have no chance of making a profit with it " could be true for some, but in this case it was obvious that this had nothing to do with high operating costs.
By:
The Investor
When: 21 Aug 10 00:04
For instance, I currently need to have my GP exceed to £2,400 per month (about 23% estimated trading fees). This theoretically covers my costs, and after that I start increasing equity.
By:
turtleshead
When: 21 Aug 10 12:24
PC can very easily make you lose, at least in the short /medium term.

Have a decent run, get clobbered, lose the lot, you will be a loser as a direct result of the pc. Not rocket science.
By:
Fred!
When: 21 Aug 10 14:14
Becoming a loser can very easily make you lose, at least in the short /medium term.

Have a decent run, get clobbered, lose the lot, you will be a loser as a direct result of becoming a loser. Not rocket science. Silly
By:
turtleshead
When: 21 Aug 10 20:25
Except for the minor point that the scenario which I described, which prior to pc could have meant that someone who previously broke even or even made a small profit, would become a loser.

Permanently so in fact, if it meant the person left as a result (which is hardly a far fetched outcome)
By:
1.01 Layer
When: 22 Aug 10 10:12
I used to do loads of arbs and cross site trading which I will now only touch if they make at least 20%, which is fairly rare. 
As a result, that's probably about 5k a week which I used to punt on bf (win or lose) which I don't now. Sad
By:
.Marksman.
When: 22 Aug 10 10:40
1.01 Layer, traders like you (and  market makers) have been the life blood of Betfair.    Without traders and market makers, Betfair would never have succeeded in the first place. It is so obvious that the markets are now less efficient and that there is less money about. 5 years ago, bookies seemed to be in despair about Betfair, but now they are resurgent.
The rot set in after Kauto Star's owners' were paid a £1 million bonus by Betfair. Within weeks of doing this, they revised the commission structure, to claw back more money. Straight away, everyone was paying more commission. (With the exception of those on 5%, who stayed the same.)
As I see it, the only way to get things back to how they were, is to abolish the Premium Charge, and put every one on to one commission rate, with no exceptions. (This rate would be LESS THAN 5%)
Just think how much could be saved by Betfair in simplifying the system. No holidays to work out, no Premium Charge team wasting their time explaining the charge to disgruntle people, who still leave anyway etc.
By:
catfloppo
When: 22 Aug 10 11:17
Well, if that would work they would probably do it.  The current commission structure encourages high volume players and enables them to remain profitable even if their margins are tight - which if you think about it is likely for a big player.  Such players, notably, weren't affected by the change in the commission structure as well as those on 5%.
By:
1.01 Layer
When: 22 Aug 10 11:24
Agreed Marksman, I don't think bf are doing themselves (or us)any favours in the long term with this overcomplicated and unequitable system.  It's all about eeking as much money out of the site as possible.

It's a small point but I think their attitude towards the money in our accounts is that it's basically theirs and they're just waiting for us to keep losing it to each other while they skim commission again and again.  This is borne out by the fact that they with draw the PC from our accounts without telling us.  Statements are irregular and they always come a day or two (or three) after the money's been taken.  If my bank deducted money from my account without telling me first, I'd close it.

In some ways, I'm grateful for the charge because it has forced me to develop new strategies and do a lot of my betting elsewhere, so not having all my eggs in one basket.  I can't believe that it hasn't driven a lot of liquidity away from the site but they are persisting with it so I guess the sums must add up on their side, even though you can't put a price on customer loyalty.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 22 Aug 10 11:59
1.01 Layer, traders like you (and  market makers) have been the life blood of Betfair.    Without traders and market makers, Betfair would never have succeeded in the first place.

LaughLaughLaughLaugh


It is so obvious that the markets are now less efficient and that there is less money about. 5 years ago, bookies seemed to be in despair about Betfair, but now they are resurgent.

Maybe but, if anything, that's down to the fact betfair have stuck with their ridiculous trading interface and left bookmakers with the non-technical mided gamblers. Bookmakers get the oil and betfair the potatoes.


The rot set in after Kauto Star's owners' were paid a £1 million bonus by Betfair. Within weeks of doing this, they revised the commission structure, to claw back more money. Straight away, everyone was paying more commission. (With the exception of those on 5%, who stayed the same.)

There was no pc then when "the rot set in".


As I see it, the only way to get things back to how they were, is to abolish the Premium Charge, and put every one on to one commission rate, with no exceptions. (This rate would be LESS THAN 5%)

So the rot set in when they increased the average rate by a fraction but maybe doubling the existing average rate will cure the rot?


Just think how much could be saved by Betfair in simplifying the system. No holidays to work out, no Premium Charge team wasting their time explaining the charge to disgruntle people, who still leave anyway etc.

I agree. They should get rid of the existing trader friendly commission system and introduce a simplified gambler friendly one which will rid us of the parasitic traders at the same time.
By:
turtleshead
When: 22 Aug 10 12:06
Feck still spouting garbage about the traders who are responsible for making the site what it is, no change there I see LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
catfloppo
When: 22 Aug 10 12:23
Getting rid of the commission discount system would reduce liquidity because it would make some strategies unprofitable.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 22 Aug 10 12:38
Feck still spouting garbage about the traders who are responsible for making the site what it is, no change there I see

Turtltles "I'm paying 20% commission on each individual market" head still spouting garbage about winning traders being unjustly charged less than all other winners. No change there I see.
By:
1.01 Layer
When: 22 Aug 10 12:49
In the ways that matter, it's a market like most others, feck.  What do you expect?  A few thousand clueless mugs offering each other all sorts of prices and about 5k matched on a footie match?
I agree that markets need regulating but as a general rule the free market does work, including this one.

This is only an exchange and, in essence fairly cheap to operate.  I'd be amazed if bf couldn't turn a profit just on the interest on deposits it receives.  All their other skimming just makes it more likely that a serious competitor will attract nigh on all their business with cheaper rates.  To be honest, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.
By:
turtleshead
When: 22 Aug 10 12:53
Winning traders do not get charged less than other winners, moron, hope this helps.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 22 Aug 10 12:59
If tomorrow they stopped normal commission and said "from now on traders will pay 22.5% of their profits and gamblers will pay 50% of their profits in commission" who would be getting charged the least moron?
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 22 Aug 10 13:04
In the ways that matter, it's a market like most others, feck.  What do you expect?  A few thousand clueless mugs offering each other all sorts of prices and about 5k matched on a footie match?

That's certainly not what I would expect 1.01 Layer.


I agree that markets need regulating but as a general rule the free market does work, including this one.

It could work better though.


In the ways that matter, it's a market like most others, feck.  What do you expect?  A few thousand clueless mugs offering each other all sorts of prices and about 5k matched on a footie match?
I agree that markets need regulating but as a general rule the free market does work, including this one.

This is only an exchange and, in essence fairly cheap to operate.  I'd be amazed if bf couldn't turn a profit just on the interest on deposits it receives.  All their other skimming just makes it more likely that a serious competitor will attract nigh on all their business with cheaper rates.  To be honest, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.

The other exchanges charge traders much less than betfair do. Their big mistake is they charge gamblers more (initially at least). Since traders generally don't supply liquidity they've clearly got everything the wrong way round.
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