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i have noticed alot of people say that you will fail if you back 1.01 odds eventually,so if you lay 1.01 eventually you will win and you would only have to win twice in every fifty bets to make money or am i way off the mark
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I don't think gambling is for you, tbh. No offence intended.
you would only have to win twice in every fifty bets to make money or am i way off the mark
Hmmm.....perhaps you mean twice in 100 bets?
Hence the disparaging remarks.
Hmmm.....perhaps you mean twice in 100 bets?
Hence the disparaging remarks.
hobson,
i have noticed alot of people say that you will fail if you back 1.01 odds eventually,so if you lay 1.01 eventually you will win and you would only have to win twice in every fifty bets to make money or am i way off the mark
The key to your answer is the word eventually. Sometimes is makes sense to lay at 1.01, sometime it makes sense to back at 1.01.
If you assume market is right, and you lay at 1.01, and you do a big number of bets, to make things simple, 10000 bets, you will lose 9900 times and win 100 times. To make things even more simple, you will win 1 bet of 100 and lose 99 if odd is 1.01.
If you assume market is right, and you back at 1.01, and you do a big number of bets, to make things simple, 10000 bets, you will lose 100 times and win 9900 times. To make things even more simple, you will win 99 bets of 100 and lose 1.
In both cases, you overall profit loss without taking care of commission, will be 0.
The key to success is lay at 1.01, when the odd should be more then 1.01, and to back at 1.01 when the real odd should be less than 1.01.
If is very hard to figure out the right odd, but there are some simple hints:
You can back at 1.01 at no risk, if the race is already over. With a fast live video feed, you have a chance to place a bet then race is over but market still open.
You can lay at 1.01, if the favourite seems to win, but there is still a small chance that he might lose. Markets usually overreact in case the favourite starts to win, but the exact strategy depends on the kind of sports you bet. IMHO a bulk lay of 1.01 on all selections in all markets causes an overall loss.
i have noticed alot of people say that you will fail if you back 1.01 odds eventually,so if you lay 1.01 eventually you will win and you would only have to win twice in every fifty bets to make money or am i way off the mark
The key to your answer is the word eventually. Sometimes is makes sense to lay at 1.01, sometime it makes sense to back at 1.01.
If you assume market is right, and you lay at 1.01, and you do a big number of bets, to make things simple, 10000 bets, you will lose 9900 times and win 100 times. To make things even more simple, you will win 1 bet of 100 and lose 99 if odd is 1.01.
If you assume market is right, and you back at 1.01, and you do a big number of bets, to make things simple, 10000 bets, you will lose 100 times and win 9900 times. To make things even more simple, you will win 99 bets of 100 and lose 1.
In both cases, you overall profit loss without taking care of commission, will be 0.
The key to success is lay at 1.01, when the odd should be more then 1.01, and to back at 1.01 when the real odd should be less than 1.01.
If is very hard to figure out the right odd, but there are some simple hints:
You can back at 1.01 at no risk, if the race is already over. With a fast live video feed, you have a chance to place a bet then race is over but market still open.
You can lay at 1.01, if the favourite seems to win, but there is still a small chance that he might lose. Markets usually overreact in case the favourite starts to win, but the exact strategy depends on the kind of sports you bet. IMHO a bulk lay of 1.01 on all selections in all markets causes an overall loss.
I say LAY 
As with all betting though it is always always (and again for good measure) always a question of value. Do the odds reflect the probabilities that it will happen (for backing) or won't happen (for laying). This is the inescapable truth of betting if you wish to advance from mug or recreational punter to winner.....imo [;)]
It is as true for a 1.01 as it is for 2 or 1000. hth.
As with all betting though it is always always (and again for good measure) always a question of value. Do the odds reflect the probabilities that it will happen (for backing) or won't happen (for laying). This is the inescapable truth of betting if you wish to advance from mug or recreational punter to winner.....imo [;)]
It is as true for a 1.01 as it is for 2 or 1000. hth.
Agree with last two posts that there can be value in backing/laying 1.01 but not with Loose all bets "IMHO a bulk lay of 1.01 on all selections in all markets causes an overall loss."
The 1.01 blind lay has appeared on more and more markets.
I think originally horse-racing but now on more markets such as Overs/Unders, tennis e.g. £ 44.000 on 1.01 already posted on the Fish/Murray match.
Can't believe people would be doing this unless profitable.
The problem with blind laying of 1.01 is being first in the queue as discussed on this forum before.
The 1.01 blind lay has appeared on more and more markets.
I think originally horse-racing but now on more markets such as Overs/Unders, tennis e.g. £ 44.000 on 1.01 already posted on the Fish/Murray match.
Can't believe people would be doing this unless profitable.
The problem with blind laying of 1.01 is being first in the queue as discussed on this forum before.
Blind betting never works. You can never do something blindly, and achieve a long term profit. It's not that easy
so if you lay 1.01 eventually you will win
You can't lay every 1.01 though , unles you are first in the queue .
The people who are at the front of the queue are sometimes laying 1.01 when there is still more than a furlong to go in a race , or 25 minutes left in a football match . They are no doubt making good money, as most 1.01 losers will start to falter well before the end.
People laying 1.01 with 50 yards to run or going into injury time will be losing.
You can't lay every 1.01 though , unles you are first in the queue .
The people who are at the front of the queue are sometimes laying 1.01 when there is still more than a furlong to go in a race , or 25 minutes left in a football match . They are no doubt making good money, as most 1.01 losers will start to falter well before the end.
People laying 1.01 with 50 yards to run or going into injury time will be losing.
I'm relatively new to Betfair and I have this evening been searching the various forums to discover why someone has clearly found a way thru all the Urban Legends and BS to be consistently exploiting the 1.01 market.
Carrying out my own research project I began to notice over a number of weeks, individuals who are so well organised that they have consistently placed their lay bets in first position in the queue ... in a variety of markets. I originally notice a £36 staker and then a £92, then someone laying at 1.03 for £1.00 and then £2.00 particularly on the Matched Odds market on football games, not just in the UK but world wide. The signature of individuals were recognisable by the amounts they were staking.
One evening I came across an individual who had staked £533 on each outcome at 1.01. He/she had done that on at least 5 games (in Britain). That equates to working with at least a £10K Bank on just one system/market.
Tonight I discovered a Brazilian football match, the KO still a over week way where again £46 had been place on the three outcomes. I am sure there would have been others if I had looked. This is the first example I've found where there was absolutely no other money on those ladders. Early bird doesn't come into it!
All this amounts to serious amounts of well organised money laid out well in advance. The discipline suggests a high degree of sophistication, in other words these people aren't mug punters. Neither is it something a bored millionaire would be interested in squandering tax avoiding booty on. It seems to be a best kept secret among a very select group and until such as the £533 staker comes forward, it seems as though it will stay that way.
Unless anyone has any new input?
Carrying out my own research project I began to notice over a number of weeks, individuals who are so well organised that they have consistently placed their lay bets in first position in the queue ... in a variety of markets. I originally notice a £36 staker and then a £92, then someone laying at 1.03 for £1.00 and then £2.00 particularly on the Matched Odds market on football games, not just in the UK but world wide. The signature of individuals were recognisable by the amounts they were staking.
One evening I came across an individual who had staked £533 on each outcome at 1.01. He/she had done that on at least 5 games (in Britain). That equates to working with at least a £10K Bank on just one system/market.
Tonight I discovered a Brazilian football match, the KO still a over week way where again £46 had been place on the three outcomes. I am sure there would have been others if I had looked. This is the first example I've found where there was absolutely no other money on those ladders. Early bird doesn't come into it!
All this amounts to serious amounts of well organised money laid out well in advance. The discipline suggests a high degree of sophistication, in other words these people aren't mug punters. Neither is it something a bored millionaire would be interested in squandering tax avoiding booty on. It seems to be a best kept secret among a very select group and until such as the £533 staker comes forward, it seems as though it will stay that way.
Unless anyone has any new input?
WHITE CLOUD YOUVE DONE ALOT OF INVESTIGATIVE WORK THERE.IF I WAS IN CHARGE OF THE POLICE ,I WOULD OFFER YOU A JOB
This is a real tough one .. and if you are pondering it don't do it!
You need to know what you are doing and be confident in your decisions, don't second guess and have the bottle to see it out long term. 1.01 are not for ... just like trading .. I just don't have the nerve for it!
left me give you some food for thought!!
You decide to lay at 1.01 you go 180 lays without a win are still going to continue .. you go 280 lays??? then what??
So you switch to backing you get gubbed 3 times in a row (last time at Redcar I think there were 3 gubbings) it will now take you more then 300 bets (commission??) just to break even will you continue??
As suggest above .. back & lay based on each individual situation!!
You need to know what you are doing and be confident in your decisions, don't second guess and have the bottle to see it out long term. 1.01 are not for ... just like trading .. I just don't have the nerve for it!
left me give you some food for thought!!
You decide to lay at 1.01 you go 180 lays without a win are still going to continue .. you go 280 lays??? then what??
So you switch to backing you get gubbed 3 times in a row (last time at Redcar I think there were 3 gubbings) it will now take you more then 300 bets (commission??) just to break even will you continue??
As suggest above .. back & lay based on each individual situation!!
its all about the true odds at the time
If you believe the true odds of an event happening are 1.08
and you can lay at 1.01 .LAY LAY LAY LAY LAY LAY LAY..
IF YOU BELIEVE it should be 1.01 then LEAVE IT ALONE .
END OF
If you believe the true odds of an event happening are 1.08
and you can lay at 1.01 .LAY LAY LAY LAY LAY LAY LAY..
IF YOU BELIEVE it should be 1.01 then LEAVE IT ALONE .
END OF
WhiteCloud,
First of all, congratulations on managing to join on my birthday.
Looking at all the research, you have done, I would have thought you were around much longer!
However, you are a wee bit off target, with your suppositions,
I feel!
If you are laying all outcomes in every market your liability on £533 at 1.01 is £5.33 per market!
Many of the markets do not go in running so your only liability is on those which do and where "keep bets is available.
Therefore I don't follow where your £10k bank comes in!
I, and others, regularly lay 10s of thousands at 1.01, in long term markets, just to "hide" the bulk of our banks.
Best of luck to you!
First of all, congratulations on managing to join on my birthday.
Looking at all the research, you have done, I would have thought you were around much longer!
However, you are a wee bit off target, with your suppositions,
I feel!
If you are laying all outcomes in every market your liability on £533 at 1.01 is £5.33 per market!
Many of the markets do not go in running so your only liability is on those which do and where "keep bets is available.
Therefore I don't follow where your £10k bank comes in!
I, and others, regularly lay 10s of thousands at 1.01, in long term markets, just to "hide" the bulk of our banks.
Best of luck to you!
Several things on here need some correction/comment
You can back at 1.01 at no risk, if the race is already over
At such restricted odds, you must ensure the result will not be overturned, eg. in horse racing ir - you need to be certain that no interference has taken place at any time in the race.
so if you lay 1.01 eventually you will win
most of the time you will not get matched, secondly there is never any gaurantee, and thirdly, if you do this without any strategy - YOU WILL LOSE
its all about the true odds at the time
exactly right - whether backing or laying, at 1.01, but the time delay in placing bets is crucial to getting matched at 'value'
You can back at 1.01 at no risk, if the race is already over
At such restricted odds, you must ensure the result will not be overturned, eg. in horse racing ir - you need to be certain that no interference has taken place at any time in the race.
so if you lay 1.01 eventually you will win
most of the time you will not get matched, secondly there is never any gaurantee, and thirdly, if you do this without any strategy - YOU WILL LOSE
its all about the true odds at the time
exactly right - whether backing or laying, at 1.01, but the time delay in placing bets is crucial to getting matched at 'value'
If I knew I was always first in the queue I would blindly lay every horse in the winner market and expect to come well out on top over the course of a year
can you back this up visionary ?
i'd say you are wrong
i'd say you are wrong
quite a boring thing to do, likely to cause repetitive strain injury laying 1.01s over and over again. not to mention depressing as you lay winner after winner after winner. you have to have the patience of a saint 
unless you have a bot of course[;)]
unless you have a bot of course[;)]
As has already been mentioned, the key is to lay selectively, then there is definite profit to be made over time. This is quite a good time to raise the point after what happened to Leeds tonight! Of course, you're not even always looking for the 1.01 bet to get turned over, in many instances it might just be a case of something happening to move the odds back out to give a trading opportunity. Preston won the game tonight but you could still have had a profitable trade just from them getting a consolation. The key is having enough patience and discipline in selecting the right lays. Football is good, I see many teams trading at 1.01 when they're only 2-0 up for example; and including tonight that's the 3rd 1.01 I've seen turned over in the last month (Man Utd 3-3 at Everton and Shrewsbury coming back from 3-0 to beat Charlton 4-3 in the Carling Cup). There's also good potential with low lays, even if not as low as 1.01, in Tennis, Cricket, Snooker etc but that's already well known. What I don't get is laying 1.01 horses blindly, I know they can lose but I've never personally seen it.
DW82 " What I don't get is laying 1.01 horses blindly, I know they can lose but I've never personally seen it.".
Last Sunday at Clonmel.
Last Sunday at Clonmel.
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