advice (and its a genuine question)

Hobby for me.

I'd start with small stakes and increase if you continue to turn a profit.

It's a hobby for me,and probably best I keep it that way.

You've been trialling it last 6 WEEKS which include last football season and through summer??? Where do You live where summer is so short?

but yeah I would deposit some amount that You can afford to lose and treat it as lost money...then bet every time like 5% of Your bank or sth....then if it grows it grows and Your system works and if it doesnt then it doesnt and You will not have lost more than You considered lost anyway...

Danny, your sample size is probably too small to say you have a definite edge. There are statistics experts on here who could give you a definitive answer.

As what you have been experiencing in terms of wins may possibly be the result of a short term phenomena (& hopefully not mate), I'd say go below 5% of bank, perhaps 1-2%.

G/L. Hope it works out.

I would say deposit £100 and use £2 stakes, I know that sounds trivial but the chance that you have a true edge is probably less than 1%.

100/1 against having a genuine 'edge' ?
Surely not.

You're not going to get very far by depositing a small amount and then betting 5 percent of it a time. That kind of strategy could take years to build your bank to a decent level.

I'd disagree, I think that's the best way, Avocado.

True, Avocado, but it's better to test the water first though?

Yes, then if it all goes pear shaped you haven't lost much.  Beware though, an edge you have with £2 steaks may not survive an increase.

dannymark, you need an ingredient that others don't have
to get an 'edge'. Common knowledge is useless, and if you
haven't got something else you will probably fail, as
no one wins overall by guessing.

kenilworth, I've always wondered why your posts are formated that way. is your computer screen very narrow?

I've always thought that your first deposit should be used to try and get lucky and build up your bank a bit. I used to make a deposit and then try and double it by going all in a few times. Then once I'd doubled it perhaps I would split the bank in half and bet half of it. Very risky but if you can get lucky to begin with then it speeds up the process of building your bank and allows you to put bigger stakes on.

you also develop very bad habits that way ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Forget any archive stats or paper trading for a minute and ask yourself one simple question.

Why does it work ?

If you can't explain that to yourself it's unlikely to succeed long term and almost certainly hit the inevitable brick wall.
Stats don't give answers only provoke more questions.......is a statement I subscribe to and that's why 99.9% of systems fail , they're all based on the past which has no respect for the future & you need to understand and apply logical reasoning above everything else.

Best of luck , let us all know how you perform   

rocket, my posts are framed as such
simply because I chose to do it that
way. I hope you like it.

.:-)

If you have got an edge, it prob wont last long, so wouldnt bother messing around with £2s...get stuck in and review strategy if you get stung

I know what Kenilworth means about guessing, and it's a phrase we all use.

But I disagree a bit about the 'common knowledge' issue, as it's not just what knowledge you have (stats, news, form etc etc) but also what you do with it that makes a difference. There are so many ways to use knowledge and therefore the 'edge' can be in the processing of information not just the information itself.

shrewdbury, if we are not guessing, what are we doing ?
Perhaps 'predicting' or 'forecasting' are nicer words
and some people prefer that. Regards my 'common knowledge'
comment, you would have to come up with a good reason
for going against common knowledge cos that is what the
books use in framing prices. I agree with their pricing
95% of the time, but sometimes the market gets it wrong,
especially in running.

i have to say... thanks to all who have bothered to offer advice. because i expected the usual close your account you no hoper stuff.

im not saying i have a 'edge'. although people may say thats what you need to make regular money..
i also understand the chances of me having a go and it genuinely working are very slim.. i was just wondering how others would go about having a go , if that makes any sense. and the different opinions make for good reading.

my sample size may be too small as daveyboy stated.. but i have known a few others have something that seemingly works on paper but dont have the discipline when it comes to real cash..
i definately would treat it as lost money to begin with and would never throw away an unmanageable amount..

also.. do people set targets? ive read some threads where people say they do and others say targets only cause you to chase.. ive also read people say they aim to turnover their bank 'x' amount of times knowing approximately how often they will be successful. ideas??

If you are setting targets then set yourself one for 6 months or a year, that way if you have a mediocre day you aren't going to get all wobbly trying to get back on track with your daily target or 1.025% or whatever.

dannymark.  Its more than a hobby for me, but while I continue to learn and develop (which is what we should all be doing throughout our betting lives) I have a full time job.  I have a betting bank from which I stake 2% a time.  The hope is that over the next ten years I will learn enough and build my bank enough that I will be able to leave my job and give it a proper go.

"The hope is that over the next ten years I will learn enough and build my bank enough that I will be able to leave my job and give it a proper go."

Have you got a target amount in mind?  Genuine question as for me the goalposts always seem to be moving.

I don't have an amount in mind, no.  The main thing would be to get to a point where I have a big enough bank to start with and also to have the confidence in myself that will come from consistent profit.  I have been a winner for a few years now, but there is always more to learn.  Achieving the bank doesn't mean I need to win it.  If I was given 50k I would consider that enough to start with, but I wouldn't do it now even if I was handed the money.  If in 5 years I think I am ready to do it, I would look at how much I had and then see if there is another way I can get the money through a friend or colleague that had faith in my ability (I work in the industry as a trader currently).

Cheers for the reply prestbury - seems like you have your head screwed on so good luck ;-)

kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 2806 02 Aug 10 16:44   

Regards my 'common knowledge'
comment, you would have to come up with a good reason
for going against common knowledge cos that is what the
books use in framing prices. I agree with their pricing
95% of the time, but sometimes the market gets it wrong,
especially in running.

What I mean is there is a lot of different things you can do (to process) any 'knowledge', so even if it is commonly available you can discover your edge.

Just as an example - if you have a stats approach, then there are many different ways to use statistics. A simple example would be that you could simply average data, use regression or similar approaches, divide data into multiple different categories etc.

Away from purely stats, we can all watch a game, but each person's interpretation of what events mean, how they are likely to progress etc may be different - again, common knowledge (the game) but potentially different processing of that information.

I think what might make an 'edge' in this processing is coming up with a good understanding for why you should make a particular prediction based on that information. i.e. your preferred method of analysis based on the information.

...plus an understanding of certain 'fundamentals' for why your predictions might work better than most.

There are only three ways to win:

1. be a better judge
2. have a better system
3. have better information

(4. get lucky)

5. Know a bookmaker that doesn't adjust its prices quickly enough

that's 3. you having better infromation than them

No it isn't they have the same information but are slow to react to it.

the advantage comes from using the information - so I still think it's no.3

make no mistake, bookies employ or sorts of experts and use all sorts of methods to have an advantage over the punter when it comes to judgement, systems and information (as well as a healthy price margin)

in trying to beat the bookie all sorts of tactics can be employed, but they all boil down to those three principles and they are valid when it comes to succeeding over you fellow punter on betfair

I'm talking about fractions of a second..fastest finger first stuff.

As for having a target I have a bank which I try to increase by 4% a time.

Each 4% I call a Level. It may take me a week to achieve a level or maybe 3. I limit my risk to less than 4% on any one event. If I achieve even a small part of one level in a match, then I'm happy.

As each level goes by I tick it off in a book with the date etc. I know what level I want to reach by Christmas and then in 18 months time. I work towards it, gradually.

It's very dull(!) but I've concluded dull is good if I want to succeed long term. For others high risk tactics may work but I would always advise against it.

Money management, patience, discipline etc..

that sounds a very good approach Injera

why 4% injera?

And do you schedule a time limit to reach that?

Not quite sure! 5% seems to high, 4 suits me at present.

No, I have no real time scale for reaching each level which I think is important. I try not to put myself under any pressure.

As a guide, I would hope to reach a level every 10 days or so but it's flexible, depending on my committments (I work full time) and also which sport is on.

I prefer cricket so now is a busy time. Also looking forward to the footy.

I don't consider my bank to be money as such. I try to look at it as a combination of levels. It's like climbing a staircase. Sometimes I fall back a level or 2 and other times I can make 3 levels quickly.

I also have a reserve bank which is very small but if I want I can top up my main bank with something from the reserve, just for encouragement, perhaps after a loss or maybe to get me that final way to the next level.

Cool - I guess a good rule of thumb is do what works for you!

Injera you sound like a clued up customer. Some day I will be you

injera,i like your philosophy(if i can call it that),thats an approach i think i would do well to mimic. Nice.

Injera - do you keep building bank, or do you withdraw once a certain amount or level is attained? Combination perhaps?

Injera makes an annual profit of approximately four pence with that system. Well done.

Thanks for the encouragement guys!

I used to withdraw money regularly but now I compound the bank and will do so for at least another 18 months.

Avocado - do you understand 'compounding'. Pick up a calculator, type in 1.04 (4%) x your starting bank and keep pressing = 

How much money have u made from this system so far?

its not a system, its a staking plan.  Avocado have you ever said anything positive?

Sensible thread with some interesting comments.  Avocado, your response would leave me fairly convinced that you are the least clued up person to comment so far.  If you have nothing intelligent, contructive or encouraging to say, why don't you got back to the football forum and let the rest of us talk about betting

Hi Injera, I have similar objectives.. but I never thought about NOT having a target date to reach my next 'level' .. that's actually very very useful.. will keep me from getting impatient if I'm slowing down - which eventually leads to mistakes. thanks for that!

Avacado, can you say how you calculated the 'annual' return for Injera... that's going to be some really funny mathematics!

Game Trader - I guess it all comes down to personal circumstances, what is the reason for betting and is there any urgency necessary.

We all want to make money quickly but I've learnt the hard way that the slower you can go, the better. When I think of all the opportunities there are to bet, time isn't such a problem to me.

If I can break down my targets into small pieces then I should be ok. I guess you need a track record of success and once you know you can make money on here, it's then all down to staking and general money management.

GL

to reply to the OP - i think you should view this as a p/t job not a hobby if you are serious about making money long term. viewing it as a hobby can quickly turn into fun bets, chasing bets and redepositing with the excuse that "its cheaper than windsurfing" or whatever. winning requires serious patience, not always easy with events there to punt on all day every day.

Avocado for you to mouth of is extremely rich. Keep giving out 1.2 tips that get beat so we can lay them

Winner Winner you could be on to something there. I'll try and find another that I think will win tonight.

Targets can be very distructive. Loose milestones can be good for confidence. It's good to know that you have moved forward some steps and do not need to panic (chase) should you go backwards. I recall Maria kept recalcuting her stake as she won, but would only re-assess hr overall position after a 30% downturn from her peak. Makes a lot of sense if you have a solid base. Go with the ebb and flow knowing that you will progress because your approach is right.

I agree, it's good to have milestones but having daily targets and things like that seems a bit unrealistic. After all, it's not the stick market we are betting on here, it's sporting events that are subject to a high degree of variance.

*stock market

anyone who continually refers to an'edge' in their posts, generally won't have one. they know who they are.

me? No i don't have an edge.

good thread this, not the usual sarky comments which is nice to see.

to the OP, keep going, slow but sure is the way to go. targets such as (Injera's i think) levels sound more plausible that x% daily. gl

Best of luck whatever you do Danny, I'm like many others on here, want to make the money but not enough skill/knowledge to do so. I'd say listen to the constructive comments, be they positive or not, at least they are trying to help you in the long run. Too many folk on here want to knock you just for asking what they think is an obvious question.

Im going to go buck the trend here and advise you not to think too much about the money management.  If you really have an edge then you don't need it - a bit of common sense is all you need in order to stop you busting the bank in a few bets. Setting yourself targets and rules and percentages will only constrain you and distract you from the main objective which is to make as much money as possible out of an edge that won't last forever.

Decide how much money you are prepared to risk on it, write it off in terms of your personal finances and go for it but resolve not to top it up at any point. If you lose - end of project.

'Edges' seem to rarely last longer than 12 months (at least in footy) before it needs modifying /abandoning, and often far far shorter than that. Starting off with a small bank with a view to build up is pointless as by the time you start to get a decent float, the 'edge' will have disappeared, or you've died from old age. Starting with a large float (that you can't really afford) is a recipe for disaster as loses will make you question your judgement. Which is why gambling is a mugs game imo.