advice (and its a genuine question)

It's a hobby for me,and probably best I keep it that way.

but yeah I would deposit some amount that You can afford to lose and treat it as lost money...then bet every time like 5% of Your bank or sth....then if it grows it grows and Your system works and if it doesnt then it doesnt and You will not have lost more than You considered lost anyway...

I would say deposit £100 and use £2 stakes, I know that sounds trivial but the chance that you have a true edge is probably less than 1%.

You're not going to get very far by depositing a small amount and then betting 5 percent of it a time. That kind of strategy could take years to build your bank to a decent level.

True, Avocado, but it's better to test the water first though?

dannymark, you need an ingredient that others don't have
to get an 'edge'. Common knowledge is useless, and if you
haven't got something else you will probably fail, as
no one wins overall by guessing.

I've always thought that your first deposit should be used to try and get lucky and build up your bank a bit. I used to make a deposit and then try and double it by going all in a few times. Then once I'd doubled it perhaps I would split the bank in half and bet half of it. Very risky but if you can get lucky to begin with then it speeds up the process of building your bank and allows you to put bigger stakes on.

Forget any archive stats or paper trading for a minute and ask yourself one simple question.

Why does it work ?

If you can't explain that to yourself it's unlikely to succeed long term and almost certainly hit the inevitable brick wall.
Stats don't give answers only provoke more questions.......is a statement I subscribe to and that's why 99.9% of systems fail , they're all based on the past which has no respect for the future & you need to understand and apply logical reasoning above everything else.

Best of luck , let us all know how you perform   

.:-)

I know what Kenilworth means about guessing, and it's a phrase we all use.

But I disagree a bit about the 'common knowledge' issue, as it's not just what knowledge you have (stats, news, form etc etc) but also what you do with it that makes a difference. There are so many ways to use knowledge and therefore the 'edge' can be in the processing of information not just the information itself.

i have to say... thanks to all who have bothered to offer advice. because i expected the usual close your account you no hoper stuff.

im not saying i have a 'edge'. although people may say thats what you need to make regular money..
i also understand the chances of me having a go and it genuinely working are very slim.. i was just wondering how others would go about having a go , if that makes any sense. and the different opinions make for good reading.

my sample size may be too small as daveyboy stated.. but i have known a few others have something that seemingly works on paper but dont have the discipline when it comes to real cash..
i definately would treat it as lost money to begin with and would never throw away an unmanageable amount..

also.. do people set targets? ive read some threads where people say they do and others say targets only cause you to chase.. ive also read people say they aim to turnover their bank 'x' amount of times knowing approximately how often they will be successful. ideas??

dannymark.  Its more than a hobby for me, but while I continue to learn and develop (which is what we should all be doing throughout our betting lives) I have a full time job.  I have a betting bank from which I stake 2% a time.  The hope is that over the next ten years I will learn enough and build my bank enough that I will be able to leave my job and give it a proper go.

I don't have an amount in mind, no.  The main thing would be to get to a point where I have a big enough bank to start with and also to have the confidence in myself that will come from consistent profit.  I have been a winner for a few years now, but there is always more to learn.  Achieving the bank doesn't mean I need to win it.  If I was given 50k I would consider that enough to start with, but I wouldn't do it now even if I was handed the money.  If in 5 years I think I am ready to do it, I would look at how much I had and then see if there is another way I can get the money through a friend or colleague that had faith in my ability (I work in the industry as a trader currently).

kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 2806 02 Aug 10 16:44   

Regards my 'common knowledge'
comment, you would have to come up with a good reason
for going against common knowledge cos that is what the
books use in framing prices. I agree with their pricing
95% of the time, but sometimes the market gets it wrong,
especially in running.

What I mean is there is a lot of different things you can do (to process) any 'knowledge', so even if it is commonly available you can discover your edge.

Just as an example - if you have a stats approach, then there are many different ways to use statistics. A simple example would be that you could simply average data, use regression or similar approaches, divide data into multiple different categories etc.

Away from purely stats, we can all watch a game, but each person's interpretation of what events mean, how they are likely to progress etc may be different - again, common knowledge (the game) but potentially different processing of that information.

I think what might make an 'edge' in this processing is coming up with a good understanding for why you should make a particular prediction based on that information. i.e. your preferred method of analysis based on the information.

There are only three ways to win:

1. be a better judge
2. have a better system
3. have better information

(4. get lucky)

that's 3. you having better infromation than them

the advantage comes from using the information - so I still think it's no.3

make no mistake, bookies employ or sorts of experts and use all sorts of methods to have an advantage over the punter when it comes to judgement, systems and information (as well as a healthy price margin)

in trying to beat the bookie all sorts of tactics can be employed, but they all boil down to those three principles and they are valid when it comes to succeeding over you fellow punter on betfair

As for having a target I have a bank which I try to increase by 4% a time.

Each 4% I call a Level. It may take me a week to achieve a level or maybe 3. I limit my risk to less than 4% on any one event. If I achieve even a small part of one level in a match, then I'm happy.

As each level goes by I tick it off in a book with the date etc. I know what level I want to reach by Christmas and then in 18 months time. I work towards it, gradually.

It's very dull(!) but I've concluded dull is good if I want to succeed long term. For others high risk tactics may work but I would always advise against it.

Money management, patience, discipline etc..

why 4% injera?

And do you schedule a time limit to reach that?