General Betting
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i do a
lucky 31---3xodds one winner(5 races)
mainly fun sat bet
also
3x lucky 15s---3xodds one winner(6 races)
1234
1256
3456
lucky 31---3xodds one winner(5 races)
mainly fun sat bet
also
3x lucky 15s---3xodds one winner(6 races)
1234
1256
3456
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Replies: 50
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In theory none. Each event ought to be staked and backed on its own merits. If one has a multiple then one makes the false assumption that the 2nd,3rd, etc etc selections are better value as you are having more of your bank by virtue of you accumulated winnings. Multiples are a nonesense IMO
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multiples are for mugs. no value in ANY multiple.
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Unless of course each selection has positive expected value in which case the compounding effect coupled with the win enhancement make it a very shrewd bet indeed .
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imho any bet which goes down from 31 bets to 15 after the first selection loses is a very difficult bet to make money with.
g/l though mate |
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Fair enough Dave , I should have said I was talking specifically about e/w lucky 15's in skanky races
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Kelly Brook Joined: 03 Sep 07
Replies: 41 27 Jul 10 16:44 Unless of course each selection has positive expected value in which case the compounding effect coupled with the win enhancement make it a very shrewd bet indeed . never get that on here though. [;)] |
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The placepot can offer very good value
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i think fun has to apply to this bet
the amount of times i got my stake money back--must be in the equation also you can dream of that 4/5-timer |
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Deep -That 'dream' of 4 /5 timers is what bookies prey on .
If you just want a little fun investment on a sat afternoon on a lucky 15/31 etc for small stakes then fine but don't expect to win in the long run . In reality lucky 15 /31 , yankees , canadians etc are just easy money for the bookies , thats why they spend a lot of time and money on highlighting them and printing the slips . |
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The least bad value (!) would IMO be the lucky 15 with treble odds
on one winner, sticking to short priced favourites. It's the next bet upwards of a 'patent' and that doesn't give any bonuses. |
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Some bad thoughts in this thread.
If you have an edge then there is usually some value in all the multiples of your bet. For instance, if you're getting 2.1 about a 50-50 shot, then you should bet the following percentages of your bankroll for optimum results. A: 4.14% B: 4.14% C: 4.14% AB: 0.2% BC: 0.2% AC: 0.2% ABC: 0.01% 12.42% on the singles, 0.59% on the doubles, 0.0094% on the treble This is worked out simply by applying Kelly. Calculators of which are available online. The best times to run a multiple however are when one event means they're related. For instance, if you were to bet unders in a series of American football games that were all on the East coast with a projected storm coming in 50% of the time (Which would lower the likely scores) If you bet the singles, and the storm didn't hit then you'd have a bad bet, if it did you'd have a good bet. The storm would be factored into the price so you'd have a level bet on average. However, if you were to do a fourfold of games being played in the path of the storm, you'd only lose your stake for one bet if the storm didn't hit, but you're getting 16 times the odds if it did. In that instance the fourfold is clearly better than the singles. |
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However, if you apply kelly you are guaranteed to go bankrupt at some point in your betting life so it doesn't really matter.
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Probably the dumbest post in the millions of posts there have been on this forum, well done Arnoldd
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I think someone is getting their Martingales and Kellys mixed up
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Ah yes, that would explain it.
Probably have been dumber posts then  |
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Have recently taken my rule of never backing odds on when a team is away.
If matches at same time, laying 2 or 3 is a pretty steady gainer. Easy to hedge and trade if necessary if come half time things look close. Check out results on Euro and Champions league qualifiers. |
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remember watching morning -line
punter won scoop 6 but payout low because of multiple winners ------------------------------------------- but that sat never did his heinz bet with the scoop 6 and was nearly in tears. |
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lori you seem to be understaking on the trebles and doubles?
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i make the doubles 3.01% and trebles 1.91
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A lot of people definitely make the lucky 15 work. Why else have Koral chopped the treble-the-odds bonus for one winner down to double-the-odds (competition-less shops)? Answer: Because people take good early prices across all four selections before they get smashed in, then lay them on betfair at the best time to lock in a profit.
Imagine a 10/1, 12/1, 10/1 and a 14/1 in a £1 lucky 15. Currently 30/1 if the first one wins (assuming no NRs), and before the race you have the chance to lay at 6/1 on here. Can lay it for five times the unit stake. If it loses, on to the next one you go (to lay) with a third of your Lucky 15 total stake already reclaimed. If it wins you're £1 up (£31 from the shop minus £30 liability here) and it remains the worst-case scenario. Another winner, at the odds taken, makes it happy days indeed. Just one problem though: You have to know which ones are going to get hammered... |
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I'll look into it didcot. It's certainly possible. i'll need a couple of days though to check it out. Feel free to pull me up on it though.
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Ok, that was quick, I found the difference.
You're betting either just the double or just the trebles, I'm betting all 7 things, so you have to bet less to get the combined stake correct. |
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*I have to bet less.
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What happened to MrLucky15? He started a tipping service doing lucky 15's, anyone know the results?
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[smiley:crazy]SHAPESHIFTER
Have recently taken my rule of never backing odds on when a team is away. If matches at same time, laying 2 or 3 is a pretty steady gainer. Easy to hedge and trade if necessary if come half time things look close. First of all, there should never be such a rule as 'never' as every bet should be judged on it's merit. Secondly, hard to see the difference between matches at the same time or consecutively. |
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mrlucky15
started bets--at diff times/diff sports/all in one bet then e/w bet prices became shorter an shorter so 3 had to place to make profit became impossible to put on then had a bad losing run HISTORY |
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mrlcuky15's logic was spot on.
but i guess it was never a good move to go public and let the masses know. |
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If you bet small and for fun then the value in these types of bets is the entertainment so look for one that keeps the drama to the end selection most times -ie lots og stacking up doubles,trebles fourfolds etc
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super yankee or canadian as its called e/w
52 bets 3 on ave have to place for stake money back 8 horse race--3 place 1/5 odds 16 horse race-4 place 1/4 odds notorious for n/r last minute and foooking your place am i right on placing odds? good points/bad points this bet? from a viewing point of view--more interest in race win/place betting not so sure |
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kenilworth,
I wrote: Have recently taken my rule of never backing odds on when a team is away. If matches at same time, laying 2 or 3 is a pretty steady gainer. Easy to hedge and trade if necessary if come half time things look close. kenilworth wrote: First of all, there should never be such a rule as 'never' as every bet should be judged on it's merit. I agree that "every bet should be judged on it's merit". However, I personally I do not back teams that are the visitors and odds on. And I've found that "rule" works for me. From there, I'll go over those teams and find the lays or, in the case of a two result market (i.e. baseball), back the home team. Why? The general stats of "betting on all odds on away teams" is red when looking league to league in sports. Secondly, I spent last year noting (not betting) on away teams that I thought would win and on a month to month basis, was either negative or the ROI was not worth the time looking at the matches. As well, there are other markets on a match that pay better than the away win that can be found once you have researched a come up with a view on an event. You wrote: Secondly, hard to see the difference between matches at the same time or consecutively. A few reasons but a couple that come to mind on a Monday morning: If the away team takes the lead and I feel the home team has shown positive signs (or I feel their second half indicators have been strong through the season), I'll lay a bit more changing the risk on the lay. If the home team ties the match, the option to "trade to reduce risk", continue with the increased risk/win or anything inbetween. So if the first lay is a success, no need to lay the second. If I had increased or decreased the risk through the first match, then the second bet changes to hit my target for the "multiple" An example last week was on the Euro-qualifiers where I had Rapid Vienna and Stuttgart on my list. Rapid Vienna drew so there was no need to play the next match (Stutgart won). And, in general, the value on laying is still better on individual matches than on betfair multiples. Anyways, it works for me SHAPESHIFTER Apr 2003[;)] |
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I agree that "every bet should be judged on it's merit". However, I personally I do not back teams that are the visitors and odds on. And I've found that "rule" works for me.
Straight away a contradiction ! On top of that ''it works for me''. How do you know ? Do you you lay them ? If you don't lay them, you would have to keep records of the prices in the matches in which you don't bet. Nothing much else to comment other than the fact that you never mention prices, and a couple of mentions for 'feel' another word for guessing. I don't know whether you win doing what you do, but punting on your feelings with no apparent regard to prices wold seem to make it difficult for most. Your explantion of the second part is only of understanding to you. Kenilworth. Despite |
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mrlucky did highlight one exceptional value multiple bet, back when one bookie was offering a lucky 15/31 with a 20% bonus on the returns (rather than the winnings) if all correct. Find a set of long odds-on shots and you get magnificent value.
Needless to say, the bookie has since changed their rules... |
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kenilworth.
I bow to your superiority. Everyone, including myself, has no idea what we are doing. I'm sorry if my views bore your intellect. I will move on. |
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Celtic Bookmakers in Ireland....4 times the odds one winner on a Lucky15. Multiple bets are value if you believe the prices are wrong (which is why you are betting on anything in the first place). Esp if you have info that means you are getting on before the move.
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SHAPESHIFTER
kenilworth. I bow to your superiority. Everyone, including myself, has no idea what we are doing. I'm sorry if my views bore your intellect. I will move on. SUCH A CHILDISH POST BUT NOT SURPRISING THOUGH. GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR GUESSING. |
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SHAPESHIFTER
Have recently taken my rule of never backing odds on when a team is away. If matches at same time, laying 2 or 3 is a pretty steady gainer. Easy to hedge and trade if necessary if come half time things look close. Check out results on Euro and Champions league qualifiers. HOW VAGUE A POST IS THAT ? |
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kenilworth,
re: the "vagueness" of my postings. what do want people to do? Post 5 years of support for each approach they have here? Give the details of how I hedge? Post my criteria on selecting winners and lays? My approach to betting is my approach. It is nothing original but it works for me. My view is that I (me, not you, not my neighbor) don't see the value or, personally, a strong ROI (if any) BACKING teams when they are away. It is a view which I then incorporate into multiples (see the title of the thread). Simple. From there, when I am looking at my plays for the day, rather than try to find one or two to lay, I will group them together in a multiple. And if one of them draws or loses, the returns for me is better. Simple. And based on my abilities to trade and hedge, I find it easy to hedge. Simple. As for your post: How do you know ? Do you you lay them ? Yes, as I said, I will look at odds on aways, lump them and research through them to find two or three weak ones to lump together into one multiple. If you don't lay them, you would have to keep records of the prices in the matches in which you don't bet. I keep records on on my longlists (flagged up by filters) and load all the results in). Short-listed, I lay so, of course, I have the records. Nothing much else to comment other than the fact that you never mention prices, and a couple of mentions for 'feel' another word for guessing. Please substitute "feel" with: based on my view based on my personal criteria on the outcome of the match that is being researched, I then compare my view of the odds and expectations on offer and decide if the value is there to lay. I don't know whether you win doing what you do, but punting on your feelings with no apparent regard to prices wold seem to make it difficult for most. My misuse of the word feeling lead to your interpretation that I am a guesser. You're welcome to your views. My punting is my business. kenilworth, learn in life that not everyone will offer up detailed views on matters. Take conversations for what they are. Simply conversations and views. Your "drilling" for detail and (on most threads) "forensic interpretations" of each word of a thread just dumbs down any interaction. Best of luck with your next interrogation. |
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You really are a prickly customer.
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1st Goal Scorers 3xDoubles & Ew Treble 1/3rd Of The Odds 5 Bets
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