dogrelata

Now here’s the crux of the matter.  For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously.  However, over the course of the last month, results have been  bad.  This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck?  The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.   


Always have to stay ahead of the game, I'm thinking about mixing things up a little for the new year myself.  In the last week of the World Cup and in the week since, people havent been lumping on favorites to the same extent they normally, what I've noticed alot more money coming into over/under markets, even though I love people gambling on a glorified coin flip its meant I've more liabilities tied up in two runner markets... which I dont like (Brazil tonight, if every day was like this I'd be posting this message by the side of my pool in the Caribbean, every game was odds on for overs).

As I havent been looking at where money goes following big tournaments in the past I can only assume people will start lumping on the favs again in the new season?  Maybe I'll just go with my original plan of only following leagues that arent covered live on UK TV, theres enough liquidity in Dutch, Turkish, Russian etc markets for me.  When punters have less info and still punt, it can only maximise my returns.

Who knows?  Who cares?  Its all a mess on here

The point is I agree with everybody who says you have to keep changing your approach, sports and racing do change fundamentally over time.

As the market has gotten more and more to 100% (less the commission) it has been more importent to take a view of a horse. Money is driving the market, not opinion. You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.

To take an extreme example, if a market is at 100% and you find a hoss at 2.2 that you value at 1.8 then that is a value bet.

At the moment the traders are dictating the market to such an extent that most horses are being over and under bet creating a market rather than a betting medium.

If you can price a horse up then you can win in the long term.

A good read this thread. I said a long time ago on various threads that the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet. I have not looked back since realizing this.

I had a great WC betting and won alot by over staking because I could not believe the prices on offer. But I accept this was a one-off. I will take my winnings and return to trading. I had a good month being Mystic Meg but I have had years of disappointment being Mystic Meg beforehand.

I.quit & Kenilworth

I agree.  We can describe it in different ways.  For me it's the Confirmation Bias we discussed earlier in the thread.

No.

Predict the future and value falls out of the markets like rain from the sky.

Predict how punters bet and you are a trader, feeding the market until the market feeds on you.

If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.

ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.

Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.

kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 2694 21 Jul 10 06:35   

Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.

Well, if Man Utd are playing at home against Wigan, who happened to score an early goal. Since then Man U have been battering Wigan but have failed to break through and equalise. It reaches HT. I'd say it's not being clairvoyant to suppose the chances of Man U scoring in the second half are high. Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers.

Burnley.

If winners don't share then this thread is useless because it can only ever be a discusion between the losers on the site.

Their licence to print money is in the FOB's they have in the shops, also
virtual racing. Match Odds football betting is very difficult for them
because of the competative nature of it.

As if they would put themselves in that position! The whole point of offering a 110% book is that you don't need to gamble, surely.

All the money goes on the favourite in football betting. If they get a long run of favourites winning they are ****ed.

fooked

Yeah. They would lose a lot more money if it was a Premiership game or something more high profile.

368/407.. IR Lays last 26 Days..90.42% SR

Fast pics got nothing to do with it.

Dunc.

When I first came on here 9 yrs ago. I made 2k the first month.doing what I am now doing again, only its been seriously tweaked,but the principle is the same.

The goal posts moved.and I started to lose,due to the advent of fast pics etc.

Its based on logic,mathematics,human error..

Saturdays highlight this beauifully..ex Last 3. were 74/78..94.87 % SR.

Intriguing, kohaku. I bet it's harder than it was 9 yrs ago! Certainly a healthy strike rate. Do you use any software for IR (one-click?) or just normal Betfair interface? Thanks for posting and good luck.

Try and name the winner half way through a race.It's just as difficult as before the start,yet the odds on some runners have halved.(admittedly some will have dropped away)
The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.

Thinking Outside the Box..is the way forward nowdays..

You have to do the OPPOSITE to what the majority do,to WIN.

Its the same with shares,although its going against human nature.

Let the stats take care of it.

Looking at IR prices after each race,is the Key.