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Winners don't share. Discuss.

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Replies: 219
By:
REM
When: 18 Jul 10 19:19
I have great respect for the market. We all should. The market is the total opinion of everyone prepared take a fincial risk speculating on the outcome of an event. That's the combined opinion of experts, insiders, shrewd punters and mug punters, together with bored thrill seekers and those who pinch money in the margins. At the off the market is at its most informed. The difficulty is that betfair is not the complete market and it carries recycled money, but it is probably the most readily available element that allows a signfificant degree of study.
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 19 Jul 10 01:10
dogrelata

Now here’s the crux of the matter.  For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously.  However, over the course of the last month, results have been  bad.  This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck?  The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.   



Always have to stay ahead of the game, I'm thinking about mixing things up a little for the new year myself.  In the last week of the World Cup and in the week since, people havent been lumping on favorites to the same extent they normally, what I've noticed alot more money coming into over/under markets, even though I love people gambling on a glorified coin flip its meant I've more liabilities tied up in two runner markets... which I dont like (Brazil tonight, if every day was like this I'd be posting this message by the side of my pool in the Caribbean, every game was odds on for overs).

As I havent been looking at where money goes following big tournaments in the past I can only assume people will start lumping on the favs again in the new season?  Maybe I'll just go with my original plan of only following leagues that arent covered live on UK TV, theres enough liquidity in Dutch, Turkish, Russian etc markets for me.  When punters have less info and still punt, it can only maximise my returns.

Who knows?  Who cares?  Its all a mess on here Cool

The point is I agree with everybody who says you have to keep changing your approach, sports and racing do change fundamentally over time.
By:
Beefie
When: 19 Jul 10 12:34
dogrelata

Now here’s the crux of the matter.  For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously.  However, over the course of the last month, results have been  bad.  This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck?  The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.   

Always a difficult one.  You can do some statistical analysis to show the probability of you results being down to chance.  Try a chitest.  If you're not familiar with it - Excel Help will show you how to do it without too much sweat.

GL
By:
AussiInUK
When: 19 Jul 10 13:34
As the market has gotten more and more to 100% (less the commission) it has been more importent to take a view of a horse. Money is driving the market, not opinion. You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.
By:
kenilworth
When: 19 Jul 10 16:33
You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.

Are they not the same thing ? If not, please explain.
By:
AussiInUK
When: 19 Jul 10 17:38
To take an extreme example, if a market is at 100% and you find a hoss at 2.2 that you value at 1.8 then that is a value bet.

At the moment the traders are dictating the market to such an extent that most horses are being over and under bet creating a market rather than a betting medium.

If you can price a horse up then you can win in the long term.
By:
chelseagirl
When: 19 Jul 10 23:46
dogrelata 18 Jul 10 17:52

That was my research.  It’s hard to believe it’s over seven years since those two articles were published in SmartSig and quite a lot has changed since then.


Nice one, I still dig around the old copies of smartsig to identify anything relavent to the exchanges!  Your article, interested me at the time as it was primarily based on the exchanges that were just taking off and it came at the problem from a different angle.  I always said I would get round to investigating your idea a bit further but never got round to it :)  On the subject of SmartSig, anyone checked out the online version ?  Any good ?  The quality of the articles for the magazine version steadily declined until it was stopped a couple of years ago.  Have'nt checked out the online version yet but, it does'nt look like things have improved from looking at the website.
By:
I.quit.my.country
When: 20 Jul 10 10:18
A good read this thread. I said a long time ago on various threads that the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet. I have not looked back since realizing this.

I had a great WC betting and won alot by over staking because I could not believe the prices on offer. But I accept this was a one-off. I will take my winnings and return to trading. I had a good month being Mystic Meg but I have had years of disappointment being Mystic Meg beforehand.
By:
kenilworth
When: 20 Jul 10 15:30
the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet.

I've been saying that for ages.
By:
Beefie
When: 20 Jul 10 16:14
I.quit & Kenilworth

I agree.  We can describe it in different ways.  For me it's the Confirmation Bias we discussed earlier in the thread.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 20 Jul 10 20:01
agree kenilworth
By:
REM
When: 20 Jul 10 22:38
No.

Predict the future and value falls out of the markets like rain from the sky.

Predict how punters bet and you are a trader, feeding the market until the market feeds on you.

If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.
By:
u25k
When: 20 Jul 10 23:31
good point. I told this ages ago but no one listened. It is important to understand punters behaviour (odds changes) , game (odds) and body language of players. Back favourites when they are struggling and you can get good odds. Lay underdogs when cruising. ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Jul 10 06:35
ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.

Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 21 Jul 10 09:22
If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.

That is fundamental to how it works.
By:
ebasson61
When: 21 Jul 10 20:58
kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 2694 21 Jul 10 06:35   

Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.


Well, if Man Utd are playing at home against Wigan, who happened to score an early goal. Since then Man U have been battering Wigan but have failed to break through and equalise. It reaches HT. I'd say it's not being clairvoyant to suppose the chances of Man U scoring in the second half are high. Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers.
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Jul 10 21:08
Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers

It's all about prices. Manu to win the second half by 2 goals or more at 1.9 ? what if it was 1.6, or 1.4 ?
If it hasn't happened, it may not happen, don't forget that.
By:
Zola's Back Heel
When: 21 Jul 10 23:05
Burnley.
By:
Avocado
When: 21 Jul 10 23:58
This thread is absolutely discussting.
By:
no moves
When: 22 Jul 10 00:02
If winners don't share then this thread is useless because it can only ever be a discusion between the losers on the site.
By:
Avocado
When: 22 Jul 10 00:19
The main winners are the bookmakers I think, William Hill and the others. Seems to be a license to print money for them.
By:
kenilworth
When: 22 Jul 10 09:07
Their licence to print money is in the FOB's they have in the shops, also
virtual racing. Match Odds football betting is very difficult for them
because of the competative nature of it.
By:
Avocado
When: 22 Jul 10 11:11
I heard Coral almost went bust during Euro 2004 when all the favourites won in the quarter finals.
By:
Trevh
When: 22 Jul 10 11:58
As if they would put themselves in that position! The whole point of offering a 110% book is that you don't need to gamble, surely.
By:
kenilworth
When: 22 Jul 10 12:10
trevh, they CAN lose on individual matches as the money taken
in any match is out of proportion to the %chance of 3 options
happening, for instance the draw may attract perhaps just 10%
of the take, despite having a near 30%chance of occurring and
is therefore usually a good result. Having said that, the margins
they work to inevitably ensure a profit in the end.
By:
Avocado
When: 23 Jul 10 00:27
All the money goes on the favourite in football betting. If they get a long run of favourites winning they are ****ed.
By:
Avocado
When: 23 Jul 10 00:27
****/e/d
By:
Avocado
When: 23 Jul 10 00:27
fooked
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 23 Jul 10 03:59
Correct avocado

88% of the cash in the LA Galaxy 90mins market is losing, they were best priced 1.58 pre KO.

If LA get 2 goals and come back, the books will lose money.
By:
Avocado
When: 23 Jul 10 04:45
Yeah. They would lose a lot more money if it was a Premiership game or something more high profile.
By:
shiraz
When: 18 Aug 10 19:34
ttt
By:
kohaku
When: 18 Aug 10 20:34
368/407.. IR Lays last 26 Days..90.42% SR

Fast pics got nothing to do with it.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 18 Aug 10 20:57
Is that purely from a racereading angle or have you taken a view about the form of horse pre-race aswell, kohaku (or mix of both!)?


ps hope you're laying at under 10/1!
By:
kohaku
When: 18 Aug 10 22:05
Dunc.

When I first came on here 9 yrs ago. I made 2k the first month.doing what I am now doing again, only its been seriously tweaked,but the principle is the same.

The goal posts moved.and I started to lose,due to the advent of fast pics etc.

Its based on logic,mathematics,human error..

Saturdays highlight this beauifully..ex Last 3. were 74/78..94.87 % SR.
By:
kohaku
When: 18 Aug 10 22:09
I dont watch the race,study the race,or listen to any pundits etc.

I just go into Robot mode for 3 - 6 hrs.

Have no emotions,nothing..

I will keep this updated.

Flat Racing only...them IR backers dont get much time to use their  trigger finger. esp Sats.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 18 Aug 10 22:42
Intriguing, kohaku. I bet it's harder than it was 9 yrs ago! Certainly a healthy strike rate. Do you use any software for IR (one-click?) or just normal Betfair interface? Thanks for posting and good luck.
By:
kohaku
When: 19 Aug 10 08:26
No Software,only 1 Sec Refresh.
By:
YoungDuncan
When: 19 Aug 10 09:45
Try and name the winner half way through a race.It's just as difficult as before the start,yet the odds on some runners have halved.(admittedly some will have dropped away)
The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 19 Aug 10 10:25
''The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.''


The betting isnt suggesting it would be unless it has gone odds-on
By:
kohaku
When: 19 Aug 10 10:36
Thinking Outside the Box..is the way forward nowdays..

You have to do the OPPOSITE to what the majority do,to WIN.

Its the same with shares,although its going against human nature.

Let the stats take care of it.

Looking at IR prices after each race,is the Key.
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