HELP ME HERE PLEASE

Use Kelly if you have an edge.

If you don't, then eventually you'll go all in

id like some kind of staking and banking plan for 1.5s as well please and thanku

lol freddie.

what is kelly

just seen it and no i dont have an edge so not really compatible for me

has anyone else got some advice/tips

How old are you?

Anyone trying to make it pay on 1.2 shots .......needs there head examined........£50  would soon be all in for most with small banks......absolutely no chance of winning in long term at those odds backing.............unless you have huge "edge" , which I doubt is the case, as you ain't heard of "KELLY" staking etc etc

As Lori has already pointed out, if you do not have an edge you will lose eventually.  That is a certainty.

i have an edge with 1.5s....whats the best staking and banking plan???


what percentage profit should i be happy with per day?

hmm i disagree 1.1 to 1.2 shots can pay off

i reckon you got more chance of winning 5 1.2 a shots than you have winning 1 even shot

i reckon you got more chance of winning 5 1.2 a shots than you have winning 1 even shot

Complex stuff this.

huh?

could you give us the maths on that conclusion 1.....?

£10 on 1.2 wins £2 with mush lower risk

do it 5 times an you win £10

£10 on 2 win £10 with bigger risk

1... you asked for assistance, Lori and I have attempted to assist you by explaining facts (we are both here full time and been doing this for quite a while).

freddie, just look up Kelly Criterion, if you have an edge this is the way to go.

no1 else then

DFCIRONMAN Joined: 04 Dec 04
Replies: 6117 04 Jun 10 17:00 
How old are you?

Anyone trying to make it pay on 1.2 shots .......needs there head examined........£50  would soon be all in for most with small banks......absolutely no chance of winning in long term at those odds backing.............unless you have huge "edge" , which I doubt is the case, as you ain't heard of "KELLY" staking etc etc


Just read my threads to see if it pays of, course it does

i no this mate
but to be fair your always going all in and also most of your bets are elsewhere as the markets arent on here

i want to only use this site for my bets

I never go all in only at the beginning one, best markets is tennis but to get 1.20 shots on here is much harder than other places due to there not being enough markets

i have an edge in the place market

horshamfc - you say your thread "pays" ....you started with
£ 8.34.......how much is bank now?

How many hours did you "work" to earn the profit ?

Near enough £40 how many hours not much probably about 1hr 30 minutes tops

On my other threads Wrestlemania one started witha fiver made over £100 profit that was time spent betting about 2 hours

Holy Grail thread cant remember the profit but probably over a ton profit erm that was 1 hour 20 mins so its profitable

It isn't constant though is it? You couldn't explain how you made the money. It was just luck.

If you have fun doing it

but you can't take it as anything else, or you'll be bust, sooner or later.

Just luck, so just luck getting 197 correct bets in a row then on the next attempt over 200? I dont call that luck i call that a good job tbh. You may not see it the same way but whilst people are busy blowing big ammounts of money im happily enoughing snapping up the 15ps [;)]

Well if it isn't just luck, you should be able to keep doing it, it shouldn't be a one off thing.

So congrats, you've found an edge (so you say).

So you have made just over £30 profit over a 5 day period....wd .....from £ 8.34 bank.

Really don't accept the "time" you say it took...to find a bet/ place a bet/ post to thread.....probably far more than you realise.

Betting at odds on you are bound to get long runs of winners.....but, you will also get hits.....and as you are betting on OVER/UNDER football markets most of time, you really are playing Russian Roulette......as any "edge" you might have is dubious.

WD on increase on bank ....but if you were playing LARGER STAKES.....how do you think you would fare psychologically betting in such markets?

If you have done THOUSANDS of such bets ...with larger bank and stakes......then you can say that it is not down to "luck".....until then 197 runs are nothing really IMO....and the money made is just now worth it over a 5 day period.

The magic word 'edge' appears yet again.

I started a thread last week about 'understanding when you have an edge'.

Many people seem to say that you need an edge, an edge is a must etc,  but it appears that that not too many people can agree on what an edge actually is.

I think an edge is soemthing you do which makes you regular profit.  If you back 1.2 shots and demonstrate regular profit then you have an edge.

Good luck.

PS - You need to be 'savvy' enough to determine your own staking plan - cos any 'edge' you find will be different from the next man on here.

An edge

You back something at 2 when it should be 1.9
You lay something at 1.9 when it should be 2


what confuses people is how to go about doing that.

The thing with hornets and 1.... et al is that they back short odds at random and when they string a few together, claim it as skill.

It is possible to see a 1.2 shot and back it, knowing it should be a 1.12 shot.

Is that what these boys are doing? Wouldn't have thought so.

What adds to the confusion rocket is this:

You back something at 2 when it should be 1.9..........now how have you come to the decision it ahould be 1.9? 

Maths meet subjectivity to get this?  Purely maths and backtesting data? Subjective opinion play a part?

For me that is the essence of the ambiguity of a 'edge'.  Each individual making the choice will differ.

There are many methods of pricing up a selection.

Personally, I let other markets do it for me.

now how have you come to the decision it ahould be 1.9?

Don't beat about the bush, just ask people to give you their wallets and cut out the middle man.

My point being that people will use different methods to derive a price of 1.9......and this will involve subjectivity....which is not based on maths alone.

I think people worry too much about the complexities of subjectivity. When it comes down to it, even using no maths at all, someone with a clue about what they're betting on should be pricing within about 1% of the true odds most of the time.

While it's nice to have absolute proof, a genuine expert in their field shouldn't worry TOO much about overstaking based on their opinions, especially if they can stir some maths into the mix to show that they've got some kind of clue.

Using sample size calculators and calculating your deviation from the closing line of an event should be plenty to make sure your assessments aren't too bad. If in doubt just build in an appropriate safety margin and bet to the worst case scenario.

If you NEVER get a bet of, say, 2% of your bankroll.. even on your most fancied picks, you're probably being a little over-cautious if you're a genuine expert in your field.

Lori I undertsand what you say here and it seems very logical.

My question before that which you commented on:

now how have you come to the decision it ahould be 1.9?

Don't beat about the bush, just ask people to give you their wallets and cut out the middle man.

This was merely a rhetorical one to help promote a bit discussion.  For the record, I would no way be discourtious enough to ask people to forgive their 'edge' (what ever that may be).

Cheers and good luck.

Ya, I should have apologised too after your second question made it clear.

Enjoy. Always happy to discuss stuff, although these threads tend to put my nose out of joint a bit from the off as there's so many of them

Absolutely.  I've read many of your posts/replies on various threads and you always seem to talk sense.

Good luck mate. Keep on.