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An edge when level stakes betting is reaching 101 percent profit or more before losing your stake. If you can do this consistently over time then you have a long term edge.
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the best edge you can get on this place is the massive overreaction to almost any event in running or pre game i suppose. especially where there is a two way market but it happens on 3 ways too.
for example, and yes i know some of you will argue the relevance of this.. pre game the other week the north queensland cowboys were approx 2.78 away at the warriors i think and there was a question mark about J thurston and whether he would play. when it was said he will play the odds dropped immediately to 2.43 and then levelled out again at 2.55 just down to one player.. and just look what happens when a goal is scored, a late basket is scored, a try is scored, and you will see that you can make yourself guaranteed money if your quick. as for defintie edges on sports and finding them.. good luck if you get one that can sustain profits over a long period of time.. ive always found that eventually they get clipped.. |
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and as i said elsewhere..
for a site where prob 95% are long term losers.. there are a LOT of ppl on these forums who reckon they have an edge or long term winning edges.. you do have to wonder |
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The question people have to ask themselves is "Am I good or just lucky?". You might have a long winning streak and then go bust because your strategy is ultimately flawed but was successful for a while mainly due to good fortune.
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You MAY go bust if strategy floored BUT main reason you will go bust is your staking is floored. Stakes should always be reflected to conceived price to price obtained.
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FLAWED spelling aint costly!!
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As Avocado touched on above - your problem is sample size.
The usual criteria for online poker players to establish if they're winning overall or not is a sample size of 100,000 hands. If you're backing a very low edge then you need this kind of sample size to give a solid confidence interval that your strategy is, in fact, a winning one. To further belabour the point - there's a Craps simulator you can run on your PC with it's own program language where you can set a strategy and run it over any number of rolls of the dice (Wincraps). I have developed strategies that on single sample runs were profitable over 10,000 or even 20,000 rolls. After a million rolls, however, they all lost because ultimately you can't overcome the house edge. So just because your 'tested' and backfitted system would have made 10% over the last 4 years of racing doesn't mean that it's profitable - even if you are looking at maybe 500 - 1500 bets. Sample size is way too small to determine if it's ultimately profitable. |
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thought about this more, and if I was going to sum it up, it's as follows:
only what you do can have an edge, not you. |
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Surely if an individual is making profit over a long period of time then they have an edge/advantage/opportunity which they capitilse on - whatever you want to call it.
Be it mathematical / opinions / fast pics / research or combination of some or all - the acid test is PROFIT. The contributors to laying the CS market thread make a profit (DFC does and has consistently) therefore surely that's the proof? Even though their will be many who dismiss or turn their noses up since it 'might not be scientific enough' cheers and good luck. |
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what dfc's done to this point has an edge. he doesn't.
sorry to go all zen, but it's a key distinction to understand. |
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Absolutley Viva.
It's the method not the man! (Although DFC could well feel hard done by, by that statement!) |
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"Interesting" comment.......but after all the appraisal of a match,it is I, AND NOBODY ELSE, that has to make a decision on which CS to LAY.
This is NOT a "mathematical" decision....but lateral thinking decision......where subjectivity does come into it. Whether it is an "edge" or not.......I've no idea on the CS football lays.....though over a 58 day period my ROT was just over 2 % on STAKES risked of about £650,000 ( from memory). Does that indicate an edge might exist???? I've no idea! Away for tea...................Gl with bets |
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I don't think anyone on the CS thread has been going long enough to be sure of profits over any given year, or the next year and the next year. It would be interesting to see someone selecting CS lays with a 'stick a pin in' method, they could have a good run but would lose to commission eventually.
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to clarify dfc, wasn't a go at you. you're clearly doing something right.
my point is that for anyone in that situation there's a temptation to think "my results show I have an edge; my results are a product of my judgment; therefore my judgment has an edge; therefore whatever judgments I make have that same edge". the danger is that when results start going against that person, it gets put down to a bad run for longer than it ought to, and questioning what they're doing gets delayed. again, none of that is at you. I wish I was making your money - and commission points! |
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No offence taken.....as with football betting I don't really believe that the "edge" really exists........whereas with horse racing I "know" that various edges exist, but even with those edges, some subjectivity exists.....and also lateral thinking again.
As most of the "edges" with horse racing have recurred time after time sufficiently enough to convince me that they are RELEVANT factors that can enable selection of "right" horses....and not "wrong" horses to win...or lay at good odds ( normally as generally not favourites), then having an "edge" does exist with horse racing. Still not got tea....so better crack on .... Cheers the noooo and GL with bets |