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General Betting
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24 May 10
21:53
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Date Joined:
27 Feb 03
Do people have different interpretations about what they perceive 'an edge' being?
Is it simply information you have which enables you make consistent profits?
If anyone has viewed the interesting 'laying correct score' thread they will see some posters making a regular profit - especially DFC who tends to do very well. With the info supplies/reseached here would people qualify this as having 'an edge'?
Thoughts much appreciated as I battle (with mixed fortunes) to make a regular profit on here!
Thanks and Good Luck.
Is it simply information you have which enables you make consistent profits?
If anyone has viewed the interesting 'laying correct score' thread they will see some posters making a regular profit - especially DFC who tends to do very well. With the info supplies/reseached here would people qualify this as having 'an edge'?
Thoughts much appreciated as I battle (with mixed fortunes) to make a regular profit on here!
Thanks and Good Luck.
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Replies: 54
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I have a edge come full time and my bank is up
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The simple way, just my opinion of course, is that you are backing at prices that are greater than they should be and laying at prices that are shorter than they should be consistently over a long period of time. Remember edges, especially mathematical ones, can erode and disappear over time.
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i believe i have an edge
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Edge is cool
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Thanks buzzer. That's seems like a very real interpretation and I wonder if there are others on Betfair who would have a similar or different perception.
I don't think I have an 'edge' as I don't have a standard methodical system whereby I KNOW I will register consistent profits. Cheers and Good Luck |
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To have an 'edge' you need a factor that is
ignored, under valued, over valued, over reaction, under reaction to events such as 'team news', the 'need to win', 'nothing to play for', 'only need a draw', 'recent form' etc, etc., sometimes prices move sharply for no reason, band wagon effect. If you can be objective it helps. you Being able to recognise a 'no bet' situation is also something to learn as well. GL. |
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I agree with buzzer. If, after factoring in commission, you can lay at below the chances of the result occurring, or back at above it, then you have an edge. Each situation is a judgment call.
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Each situation is a judgment call.
In other words, a guess ? |
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I think prices here are usually too accurate to be able to back or lay at value pre-off, but in-play throws up some value. DFC is doing very well so far, even though he mainly lays at top prices (a couple of ticks above what could be achieved) but even he says he doesn't think he has an adge. I always think that anyone laying high prices will perhaps have one shocking week per year which could wipe out all gains - there's no security in laying like that IMO.
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Being able to recognise a 'no bet' situation is also something to learn as well.
i agree completely. maybe one of the hardest things to learn |
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Each situation is a judgment call.
In other words, a guess ? LOL! I prefer to think of it as a judgment call based on some combination of instinct, experience and understanding; but you can call it a "guess" if you like. We always hear that some people are very good at guessing in comparison to others.  |
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I prefer to think of it as a judgment call based on some combination of instinct, experience and understanding;
Posh words for guessing mainly, although you left out 'gut feelings' or does that come under the 'instinct' umbrella ? |
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Absolute nonsense - judgement calls, instinct and experience dont, on their own, come into it.
An edge is a consistent, systematic application to a criterium that has stood the test of tens of thousands of events over many years - ekeing a predetermined return Anyone who has just a genuine 1% edge should be made |
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birch2 Joined: 01 Jun 02
Replies: 179 26 May 10 18:55 Absolute nonsense - judgement calls, instinct and experience dont, on their own, come into it. birch, do you think they (judgement calls, instinct and experience) therefore come into it in conjuction with other factors ? |
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supernap
yes - in setting the criteria for the system you are proposing to use, many factors come into it, some of which you pointed to earlier What I was trying to point out is you cannot have an 'edge' when applying just one or 2 of these factors to a 'sample' of events An 'edge' can only be claimed over the test of time/'x' events - not on 1 day or 1 week or even 1 year |
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lots for debate - thanks for replies.
My impression is that an edge is something you can RELY on to make you a regular profit. Anyone think different? |
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yes - in setting the criteria for the system you are proposing to use
Birch, I am not proposing any system using any criteria at all. If you are referring to my post at 19:31 yesterday, I was suggesting possible situations where 'wrong prices' can occur, and possibly acted on, providing one can stay completely objective, if that makes sense. If one then mixes 'instinct' etc, in as well, things would get complicated. GL. |
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Supersnap, as you know wrong prices don't remain wrong for very long, they can't, and all the things you mentioned above are factored into the price anyway, actually creating the price.
Birch2 is spot on, this is something I've been working on for nearly a year now, and although I know the edge is there it's the losing runs that are so hard to handle mentally and the most difficult aspect of this whole game. I'm slowly turning myself into a human bot lol, those that run a method might know what I mean. Just last Sunday I had 10 losses in a row, which meant nothing at all to the method but still hurt mentally and built pressure as I'm but a mere human :) |
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U2 have got an Edge.
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Trev, you say 'wrong' prices don't remain 'wrong' for very long. I'm not referring to them, but when
the exchanges move prices for the reasons I mention. Prices don't always move 'wrong' to 'right', but many times the other way. When a 2.30 chance moves to 2.60 it doesn't mean the original price was being corrected, only changed. It also doesn't mean the new price is correct, and that sometimes is the time to bet, at the 'new' price, against the flow. I see football prices every week moving to very backable prices for no particular reason, and if I'm happy that the team haven't gone down with food poisoning on the morning of the match, I will take the 2.60 blind, trusting that the 2.30 posted by many books the day before was the right price. It's not books that change prices, but backers money, many times for the wrong reasons. |
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good point
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Great to see Ken back
on the typewriter  |
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agree with birch fwiw.
if it isn't a system with clear rules that's in profit after commission over a statistically significant number of instances, "edge" doesn't come into it by my definition. |
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Supernap - in major markets, do you really believe that opening prices are more "correct" than later prices?
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supernap has this thread tied.
dont think you can explain it any better than that. i know of one edge i have. but a few years ago this was visibly so over bet it was unreal. i think people couldnt make a profit this way so now i can get back on knowing long term i will do ok. |
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Interesting point about the movement in edge over time on a market. Hadn't thought about that before, but different approaches will of course come in and out of vogue.
Supernap on the money as per. Not sure why people are questioning the logic. |
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Supernap does talk sense, however I was under the impression that an edge is scientific and not subjective.
Supernap in your last post you seem to make reference to subjective thoughts (have i read that wrong?) Is an edge not purely based on numbers, numbers and more numbers? cheers and good luck. |
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An edge means your results produce a return greater than the expected return
how you come about that, be it subjective thinkings, inside knowledge, getting bets on early etc doesn't matter. |
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and % error = (difference in values/true value) x 100%
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err wtf, that last post was misplaced
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ok rocket cheers. I'm sure that there are many on betfair who ridicule the subjective aspect of decision making and insist that decisions on what positions to take should be based purely on numercial data researched over a very long period of time.
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I wouldn't say that.
I'd guess (total guess) that the majority of edges are mathematical as they're more likely to be reproducable but have no doubt people gain an edge through what I said. |
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thanks rocket .... and I guess that is the reassurances that I am looking for....any edge i may stumble upon does not necessarily have to be 100% mathematicial.
Apparently a well informed opinion can count for something! Here's hoping. Good luck all. |
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Agreed Rocket. More subjective the better imo. Less chance of others getting into the bed as yourself, so to speak!
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same bed^^
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Well it should only comfort you if you have access to inside info or you seed/trap.
If not, you need a mathematical edge . |
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and just before we start confusing ourselves, trap bets and seeding do still require the math to be right.
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DaveEdwards Joined: 06 Sep 07
Replies: 4454 27 May 10 23:22 Agreed Rocket. More subjective the better imo. Less chance of others getting into the bed as yourself, so to speak! Always a danger [;)] (i see what you're getting at ) |