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The Politic/UK/Leader Exit dates Market is quoting 75's for Camerons Party Leader Exit date Apr-Jun 2010.
Whilst hard to actually guesstimate the Odds of the Conservatives firing the man who is now priminister in the next 49 days I'd hazard a guess that it is nearer 5,000 to 20,000/1
If not fired, then the other options to exit the leadership job is injury/illness or scandal.
So the 74/1 odds is basically insurance against injury/illness or scandal.
I've taken a tenner of it and it locks up £740 for 49 days = 1.35% interest for the insurance risk.
Seems like a good but very boring bet, thats insurance for you I guess.
Anyone else dabble as the insurer ?
Whilst hard to actually guesstimate the Odds of the Conservatives firing the man who is now priminister in the next 49 days I'd hazard a guess that it is nearer 5,000 to 20,000/1
If not fired, then the other options to exit the leadership job is injury/illness or scandal.
So the 74/1 odds is basically insurance against injury/illness or scandal.
I've taken a tenner of it and it locks up £740 for 49 days = 1.35% interest for the insurance risk.
Seems like a good but very boring bet, thats insurance for you I guess.
Anyone else dabble as the insurer ?
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What happens if the agreement with the Libsters falls apart?
What happens if the agreement with the Libsters falls apart?
Even if the 'ConDem'nation pact fell apart I think the chances of the Conservative Party sacking him as leader ( what this bet is about ) are greater than 5000/1 thus 75/1 = life insurance
Even if the 'ConDem'nation pact fell apart I think the chances of the Conservative Party sacking him as leader ( what this bet is about ) are greater than 5000/1 thus 75/1 = life insurance
Agree with you Escapee, that the "insurance" angle is definitely a valid way of looking at some betting and this bet looks like a good one.
I should add though, as my forum name suggests, I tend to favour long shots and so operate with a bank which is too small to make this sort of bet worthwhile, especially over the time period.
If you don't mind tying sums up for a % return, I would have thought that arbs would offer a better return for you and with no risk. I find plenty between BF, the purple place and the high street.
Plenty of my 1.01 lays come off (or at least drift first so I can lay off) so I know that what many think of as a certainty doesn't turn out to be the free money that they thought.
GL with your bet which off the top of my head I would put at about 250-1.
I should add though, as my forum name suggests, I tend to favour long shots and so operate with a bank which is too small to make this sort of bet worthwhile, especially over the time period.
If you don't mind tying sums up for a % return, I would have thought that arbs would offer a better return for you and with no risk. I find plenty between BF, the purple place and the high street.
Plenty of my 1.01 lays come off (or at least drift first so I can lay off) so I know that what many think of as a certainty doesn't turn out to be the free money that they thought.
GL with your bet which off the top of my head I would put at about 250-1.
If you bet on 5000 similar markets today, would you still have a positive expectation?
If you bet on 5000 similar markets today, would you still have a positive expectation?
I guess that's all down to how good one is at analysing the value of each of the individual prospective bets over a sample size of 5,000.
whilst its not unknown for an insurance company to go broke, most of them seem to do well, and then there's the "names" of course.
I guess that's all down to how good one is at analysing the value of each of the individual prospective bets over a sample size of 5,000.
whilst its not unknown for an insurance company to go broke, most of them seem to do well, and then there's the "names" of course.
Nice angle this. If it goes tits up, you should be able to get bailed out by the taxpayer.
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