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General Betting
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The Politic/UK/Leader Exit dates Market is quoting 75's for Camerons Party Leader Exit date Apr-Jun 2010.
Whilst hard to actually guesstimate the Odds of the Conservatives firing the man who is now priminister in the next 49 days I'd hazard a guess that it is nearer 5,000 to 20,000/1
If not fired, then the other options to exit the leadership job is injury/illness or scandal.
So the 74/1 odds is basically insurance against injury/illness or scandal.
I've taken a tenner of it and it locks up £740 for 49 days = 1.35% interest for the insurance risk.
Seems like a good but very boring bet, thats insurance for you I guess.
Anyone else dabble as the insurer ?
Whilst hard to actually guesstimate the Odds of the Conservatives firing the man who is now priminister in the next 49 days I'd hazard a guess that it is nearer 5,000 to 20,000/1
If not fired, then the other options to exit the leadership job is injury/illness or scandal.
So the 74/1 odds is basically insurance against injury/illness or scandal.
I've taken a tenner of it and it locks up £740 for 49 days = 1.35% interest for the insurance risk.
Seems like a good but very boring bet, thats insurance for you I guess.
Anyone else dabble as the insurer ?
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What happens if the agreement with the Libsters falls apart?
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What happens if the agreement with the Libsters falls apart?
Even if the 'ConDem'nation pact fell apart I think the chances of the Conservative Party sacking him as leader ( what this bet is about ) are greater than 5000/1 thus 75/1 = life insurance |
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Agree with you Escapee, that the "insurance" angle is definitely a valid way of looking at some betting and this bet looks like a good one.
I should add though, as my forum name suggests, I tend to favour long shots and so operate with a bank which is too small to make this sort of bet worthwhile, especially over the time period. If you don't mind tying sums up for a % return, I would have thought that arbs would offer a better return for you and with no risk. I find plenty between BF, the purple place and the high street. Plenty of my 1.01 lays come off (or at least drift first so I can lay off) so I know that what many think of as a certainty doesn't turn out to be the free money that they thought. GL with your bet which off the top of my head I would put at about 250-1. |
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If you bet on 5000 similar markets today, would you still have a positive expectation?
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If you bet on 5000 similar markets today, would you still have a positive expectation?
I guess that's all down to how good one is at analysing the value of each of the individual prospective bets over a sample size of 5,000. whilst its not unknown for an insurance company to go broke, most of them seem to do well, and then there's the "names" of course. |
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Nice angle this. If it goes tits up, you should be able to get bailed out by the taxpayer.
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