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23 Apr 10 00:31
Date Joined: 08 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 140 | Blogger: Toma's blog
Has anyone else ever tried to reproduce this amazing system from a few years ago?
Incase you aren't aware of it Maria turned £3k into £100k in a year or so if I remember correctly. I have been doing it for small stakes over 2 weeks and so far so good!
Pause Switch to Standard View The Maria Laying System
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Report DFCIRONMAN May 16, 2010 6:18 PM BST
Hi Trademate

Here is a link to a Kelly calculator

If it shows a NEGATIVE figure for STAKE at bottom right, then it can be used for LAYING purposes.

Main thing is that it takes account of

1. BANK position.
2. ODDS available to lay at/or back at.
3. Makes you make a decision re the WIN PROBABILITY of horse.........OK this obviously cannot be precise....but if you do have a large EDGE on horse racing, then you should be capable of doing this etc.
all of the above.

Trust this helps a wee bit.

Gl with bets
Report slartybartfast May 17, 2010 12:04 AM BST
If Maria's story was true (and it's a big if) she was successful solely because of the prices she managed to lay at. It had nothing to do with the so-called staking "system" (which surely amounts to little more than a rudimentary fixed lability with ratchet).
Report tobermory May 17, 2010 1:30 AM BST
Yes Slarty, i recall someone ran a test of her selections at the claimed prices with different staking systems and the results were similar or even better.
Report JonnyDixon May 18, 2010 6:54 AM BST
Why would somebody waste 300 days of there life calculating winnings that were never places? Also im sure if it was fake then somebody would of seen horses that did not win, she posted her stakes before the races.
Report tobermory May 18, 2010 6:46 PM BST
never posted the prices before racing though
Report Steve Voltage May 18, 2010 7:53 PM BST
tobermory     18 May 10 18:46 
never posted the prices before racing though

Report alert May 19, 2010 3:06 PM BST
Toma ... Why cant you just post the few selections that you are sure of, instead of having no selections at all ?

Surely out of your 10 selections one or two where as confident as your normal days selections?
Report Toma May 19, 2010 6:14 PM BST
Hi alert,

The problem wasn't that I wasnt confident with any of my selections they were all selected based on my usual criteria.  It was more that the make up of the racing today (in my opinion) didn't lend itself to the Maria Laying system or my version of it at least. Most of the time I felt exposed as if there wasn't much going to help me get my selection beat and my average odds today were 3/1 (4.0) for 10 races (they have never been that low).  I never at any point this morning felt that I would get enough right to cover the inveitable failures (at those odds).  As it turned out I would have had a winning day with 8 out of the 10 being beat but only returning a very small % profit.  So in that respect I was wrong to leave them today....but we all know that gambling is much easier after the event Happy.

In the future, if this happens again and people want me to I am happy to post my selections but just make sure everyone knows they are NOT TO BE ADDED INTO THE RESULTS!  I have no problem with that if that would help anyone.

Apologies for today but hopefully back to normal tomorrow!

Report Trademate May 19, 2010 10:43 PM BST

Well done. Don't force youself to lay horses. If the bets feel wrong leave them alone there is always to-morrow. A day off doesn't hurt now and again to re charge the batteries.

Regards Trademate
Report Toma May 20, 2010 1:03 PM BST
Cheers Trademate
Report Trademate May 22, 2010 8:16 PM BST

Two bad days Fri & Sat. However these are going to occur, they are painful but they should be put in the context of a years results. Hope things pick up tomorrow.

Regards Trademate
Report Norma Stitz May 22, 2010 8:26 PM BST
Cupid stunts, listen up.

The 'Maria' System was a losing system.

Prices were manipulated.

Dissenters were banned.

Latvia, LMFAO.
Report Trademate May 22, 2010 10:57 PM BST
Norma Stitz

Lets see Tomma give it a go. He is showing a profit so far so let see where it takes him.

Regards Trademate
Report Norma Stitz May 22, 2010 11:06 PM BST
Whatever Tomma achieves or does not achieve will have FA to do with 'Maria'.

EBA, got a result.

It was a smoke and mirrors job, no more, no less.
Report Norma Stitz May 22, 2010 11:06 PM BST
Whatever Tomma achieves or does not achieve will have FA to do with 'Maria'.

EBA, got a result.

It was a smoke and mirrors job, no more, no less.
Report Toma May 23, 2010 12:35 PM BST
Cheers are correct and I think it was you who correctly said "look at the big picture" which is a 66% increase in bank. I will keep going and see where it takes us.

Norma Stitz, thanks for your comments mate but I would just like to say it will have something to do with Maria as it was her or EBA's inspiration that has led me to do this and I am using her staking system so credit has to be given for that. 

You say "the Maria system was a losing system" any chance you can quantify that statement.  Bearing in mind that all the Maria system is, is a staking plan?  Also, can I ask why you seem to have such a resentment against EBA and Maria? 

In a nutshell, I am in the not sure if she did or didn't do it but also I don;t really care.  I am more concerned about can I do it?  I have never said at any time that I am expecting to make fortunes buy doing this.  It is purely a test to see if I am capable of reproducing such a system.  At present I am struggling, May has been very difficult no doubt about it but I am still enjoying the task of trying to reproduce Maria and I think a few others are also, so I am going to continue to see what happens.

Report tobermory May 23, 2010 3:48 PM BST
I don't think the staking plan was a crucial factor in the success of that thread.

Laying at such low odds , different staking methods would likely have been as succesful .
Report Toma May 23, 2010 4:56 PM BST
I totally agree with you Tobermory, as I said below "Bearing in mind that all the Maria system is, is a staking plan?".  For me the most imortant part of this is the selection process

I have had discussions on this thread where I have said that on a few occassions.  Other people have suggested it is the odds, but for me the priority is finding a horse that will lose followed by the odds.  The Maria system is just a way of staking the selections based on the lay price that you get matched at.

The way I do it (no idea if it is right or wrong) is to find the horse first and then check the odds to ensure you are not laying at a crazy price (unfortunately sometime it happens!).
Report Al Dente May 23, 2010 6:19 PM BST
Surely the price is paramount Toma? Regardless of the selection process excessive overlay will ensure a loss.
Report Norma Stitz May 23, 2010 7:35 PM BST
"I don't think the staking plan was a crucial factor in the success of that thread."

The success of 'Maria's' system was lying about prices.
Report Toma May 24, 2010 12:38 AM BST
Hi Al Dente,

I agree 100% and you are correct when you say that "excessive overlay will ensure a loss" however in my opinion not as quickly as continually picking Losers (which are winners in the actual race).

Please understand that I am not saying lay something at 8/1 that is clearly a 4/1 shot that is just madness....

My strategy is to identify a selection which I think has good chance of getting beaten in a race....then I go and check the prices avalable to lay the horse.  If the price fits with my  estimated prices then I lay it or I place an order into Betfair to lay it at what I consider to be a value price.  If I think the odds are to high and I have no chance of getting matched at a decent price then I avoid it and move onto the next race.

All I am saying is that finding the loser is (for me anyway, the most important thing).  When you are laying these horses sometimes 7 hours before they run you have to be a market maker rather than a market taker and I put the horses in at prices I think are value lays.  Sometimes I don't get matched before 1pm and therefore they are removed from the system. 

The ones I do get matched and they drift is always nice to see as it helps confidence.  However, of course some get backed and as a result decrease in price which is more scary...BUT I laid that horse at that time for that price for a reason what happens after I am matched is something I don't worry too much about as it is out of my control.

As long as my reason for laying the selection is sound and the price I got at that time in my opinion is good value then I can't really complain.

I can show you many selections I have made that have dropped in price and got beat. I can also show you the massive drifters that win (including 500/1 shots in running etc.)  That is racing and we are playing in an active market so prices are going to fluctuate but as long as you are on the RIGHT selection, the price (in my opinion) is very much of secondary importance.
Report Toma May 24, 2010 1:05 AM BST
Hi Norma Stintz,

I am not going to defend or attack Maria on this thread as she isn't here (I don't think so anyway to defend herself) but surely if you are doubting the prices that she obtained.  Do you agree that her selection process was sound.  If so, I am assuming what you are saying is that her prices on her losers were that far out of line with industry SP's that they were un-obtainable.  Or are you saying that even the prices she was matched at on her winning selections were not available?

I can show you some of my recent selections where I have laid at 5.7 (9/2ish) and it has gone off at 13.0 (12/1) another one I laid at 11 (10/1) industry SP was 20/1.  I can also show you some that went the other way.  So I have to ask would you cast the same accusations at me.  If so, I am happy to supply any evidence you require regarding these or any of my lay prices.
Report Al Dente May 24, 2010 6:58 AM BST
Hi Toma,

Thanks for the reply. I've been lurking for a while.

Perhaps I am in a different position from you; I realise that you lay hours in advance and to some extent rely upon some drifting and an equal amount shortening. That would worry me through the lack of control.

I lay from 10 to 20 horses daily at this time of year and am delighted to get more than one qualifier layed in each race, always within the three minutes preceding the start and generally from 6.0 up to a max of 11.0; or if the price is say, 11.0 for a 10.0 chance I will enter a "keep" lay at 9.0 to nick a point which generally gets taken in running. If not - well, so bet it.

Have been at this for while and find that it works for me.
Agree that a layer needs at least an 85% strike rate which leaves very little for overlay and commish.

Ratchet is fine but I don't vary the stake according to the odds; find it over rated and stick with max 0.04% of bank layed to risk a max 4% of bank at 11.0.

6.0 risks just 2% of course but then, they tend to win more often.

I wish you every success, but do watch the overlay!
Report Al Dente May 24, 2010 7:02 AM BST
*11.0 for a 10/1 chance
*so be it
Bit late for me now.........
Report Toma May 24, 2010 12:29 PM BST
Hi Al Dente,

Thanks for your comments.  Personally, I think the way you are doing it is the best way...i.e laying just prior to the offical start time and leaving some to get matched in play etc.  I think I would have a much better chance of success doing it your way as I could assess the market at certain points and then act accordingly.  Also, leaving lays "in play" is the perfect strategy for front runners etc. to "nick a point".  As you say if they don't get matched then it hasn't cost you anything!!

However, for the purposes of this exercise all I am trying to do is replicate the Maria laying system as closely as I can to her rules.  Which was posting all her selections for the day ahead of the first race and then posting the outcome (results / financials) after the last selections race.

All the best with your lays Al Dente and good luck!
Report lukehart May 27, 2010 12:54 PM BST
Toma,, very observant

I feel that many horses have an optimum way of racing to there best ability, after a few yards you can quite often see if the jockey agree,s with you.
Either way I find it fruitful.
Report Norma Stitz June 2, 2010 3:29 PM BST
Toma 24 May 10 01:05

"I can show you some of my recent selections where I have laid at 5.7 (9/2ish) and it has gone off at 13.0 (12/1) another one I laid at 11 (10/1) industry SP was 20/1.  I can also show you some that went the other way.  So I have to ask would you cast the same accusations at me."

Prices move. No need to go on the defensive. I've not accused you of anything.
Report Toma June 3, 2010 6:38 PM BST
Hi Norma Stitz,
I wasn't aware I was going on the defensive just pointing out my own findings and I know you haven't accused me of anything. 

I was just answering the point you raised in your reply.
"The success of 'Maria's' system was lying about prices.".....but as you say "Prices Move".  I am now confused as to what you are alleging the Maria thread lied about?
I assume you are going to say that her losers could never be matched at the prices she said for the amounts she said? If so, surely this would have been checked at the time by some of the people following her?
Report tobermory June 3, 2010 7:59 PM BST
It could not be checked because she was never saying when she had been matched . She just waited til after the race and then claimed to have been matched near to the lowest odds that were matched all day .

Look at this Directorship in the Sandown race just now, that is fairly typical

7.60                   £121             
7.80                £2,878           
8.00               £2,002           
8.20                £1,401           
8.40                £2,158           
8.60                £5,608          
8.80                £2,844           
9.00                £2,546           
9.20                £1,541           
9.40                  £599           
9.60                £676           
9.80                  £660           
10.00                £940          
10.50                £704           
11.00                £120          
11.50                £51           
12.00                £28           
12.50                £15           
13.00                £8           
13.50                £4

Matched at all those odds during the day , easy to say after the event you layed at 7 something but most punters would have layed significantly higher during the day.

It would have been easy enough to let people check as she said she had her bets mostly natched by 12pm , if she had stated which ones , and at what prices when she posted them, then people could have checked if they had been matched at thise odds that early, but seemingly she was not happy for people to be able to do that.
Report Trademate June 9, 2010 11:54 PM BST

Good day today.

Regards Trademate
Report Norma Stitz June 12, 2010 9:09 PM BST
For some, Maria is a wraith.

For people with more than two brain cells, he is ( not a mistake ), a LLT.
Report Hull June 13, 2010 1:38 AM BST
What did Maria do to you Norma - you seem to be seething alot with the lass/lad, and bringing the thread back.

Did she blow you out or somit Laugh
Report Norma Stitz June 13, 2010 6:05 PM BST
'Maria' lied about prices.

No more, no less.
Report Norma Stitz June 13, 2010 7:48 PM BST
"If so, surely this would have been checked at the time by some of the people following her?"

Toma, I checked, said the prices were not there and was banned from EBA.

Coincidence? Yeah right.
Report Trademate June 15, 2010 12:10 AM BST
Norma Stitz

Did you check the prices when the Thread was up and running.?

Did you find that the prices were not there regularly.?

Regards Trademate
Report Norma Stitz June 18, 2010 7:57 PM BST
Yes and yes.

Maria is a fat t w a t from Salford.

Well, almost.
Report Norma Stitz June 19, 2010 8:29 PM BST
No response from the 'Maria' apologists.

So, Maria is a fat t w a t from Salford.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
Report Norma Stitz June 20, 2010 6:59 PM BST
Say it loud and there's music playing,
Say it soft and it's almost like praying.

Lyrics from Weaste Side Story.
Report Hull June 20, 2010 7:53 PM BST
Your obsessed fella, and your gonna make yourself ill Sad
Report Norma Stitz June 20, 2010 8:39 PM BST
Don't think so. I've played before and I know where this one is going.

It ain't feckin Latvia, that's for sure.
Report freddiewilliams June 26, 2010 5:09 PM BST do u feel ure quest is going?
Report Toma July 3, 2010 11:37 PM BST
Hi Freddie,

It's tough that’s for sure.  I got off to a real flyer when I started in April almost doubled my bank in the first 30 days.  However, for some reason (and I haven't changed my selection process) since then it has seemed like 1 step forward 2 steps back. 

I am now up to day 71 and have laid 1015 selections, still showing a profit but it has been reduced to 31% from my starting bank.  Also, I had reset my figures as I hit a 35% low from my highest bank.  Which Maria never did to my knowledge.

That said I am still continuing with it and will do so until I either do my "dough" or I make a few quid.
Report PianoMan Chris July 10, 2010 4:53 PM BST
Hi All...

Amazed to see that this single thread from 5 years ago still manages to raise such passion!

I might if I may inject a few observations - and I was one of those who was actually around at the time, and actually followed her selections for a while. I actually put up a post on that thread on page 137 which highlighted my concerns, and equally defended her. (if any of you are anal enough to check, I'm ChrisUK)

I think I picked up on it around February of 2006, and started laying them a little while later. I did make a few quid from her selections, but... because of the prices I was able to get, I stopped.

In balance though, I can't in all honesty accuse her of cheating the numbers, because, as I said in that post, her figures were acheivable because she was laying to very early prices in the vast majority of times. I too was very suspicious and stated so (more on that in a short while..) but in all honesty, when I broke away from following her selections I was active on another thread that had a couple of very successful systems running... can't remember the name but it hosted Bills 123 lays in it's early days. A lot of those selections and some that I was coming up with myself crossed over with Maria's lays and I was putting money on them quite early, around 10.30 upwards, quite often I was acheiving much better prices than I could ever have got later in the day. Quite often I got it totally wrong too... but it was more the former, it was significant for me to see this first hand. Some systems clearly identify horses especially 2nd and 3rd favs that lose market confidence consistently throughout the day. I also believe that she was giving a few 'big hitters' the headsup before publishing the selections to the thread. I think with significant money being layed it was totally conceivable that this contributed to the prices drifting back in those days, but this is just conjecture really.

To pour a little oil back on the fire... I will say, that on EBA it says I only have one post. This isn't true. I actually spoke further with Maria there, because one of her responses was that the system was safe to follow even at inflated prices... which I countered.. and if I recall she got a bit miffed, which was not my intention. All of that has 'conveniently' disappeared! What is left, although accurate, is fairly watered down. I was a cautious fan, as I still am in many ways.

I will counter here though the argument that she was randomly picking horses. Simply not true. There are several entries on that thread where she clearly gives indications on what some of her filters and selection processes are, and they are essentially the data that good confident layers use.

She did talk a lot about the 'relevant siblings' and sires etc.. which I don't put much weight on, but I know several who do. She did put much weight on the ground and the horses history on that ground and the trip. She had a strong weighting towards draw from what I remember, and if I remember correctly she gave a lot of emphasis on the trainers history, in particular relation to the course and trip.

These are not advanced laying techniques, but it's a solid grounding and she did speak about these elements, and more (it's all there in the thread), so I'm guessing that there was much more that she wouldn't want to be putting up.

In response to the publishing of matched prices, I've got to question whether that would really prove anything... surely you could still just look at the exchanged money and just say you were matched at the best that was matched prior to publishing the selections anyway?

She did also speak of using some trading indicators... i.e. double bottom and double top stress signals. I used to dabble with these tricks when I was trading the sports markets, with varying success mostly for scalping profits in the final 10 minutes when the markets were really lively. If she was able to be watching the markets so closely (as I usually wasn't) there is an added advantage that most people just wouldn't be able to match... I do remember when she pointed them out, that I would be telling and showing several people (who looked down on my horsey activities) the similarities between the sports exchanges and the financial markets.

But who knows, I had suspicions certainly... (especially the early interactions with a contributor on that thread called 'Janis' - that all seemed a bit convenient too me), but like I said, later on when matching those selections, I couldn't totally disagree with her prices.

Anyway... that year of laying sorted me out a few quid that I cashed out and used for a nice holiday for me and the family, and when I came back spent 6 months and my bank stayed at exactly the same level.. so I moved to poker and haven't looked back lol. (until I realised I can now check selections on my iphone and lay from iBetMate and keep an eye on prices without being at a computer and now I might have just caught the bug again).

Don't shoot me down now... I'm after the golden goose too.

Ask questions. If I can remember anything more specifically from the time when it was all happening I will gladly answer


And P.S. Good Luck Tomo... if anything I did learn from Maria it was to bet conservatively and keep applying that upward pressure, and always think long term
Report Hull July 10, 2010 11:17 PM BST
Bleeding ell, no reply from Norma yet.
Report acxall July 14, 2010 3:42 AM BST
A person on did a thread for 70 days based on Maria's staking plan and in that time went from $300 to $931, before he stopped posting.  He said he was going to post for 365 days, but disappeared after 70 days and hasn't posted since.  I got the feeling he had a fairly large following similar to Maria before he stopped posting.

I remember there were a lot of sceptics about his postings to.  It seems that every successful system will attract a lot of scepticism, which is why most will not post out in the open I suppose.
Report Arystotle July 14, 2010 11:26 AM BST
"It seems that every successful system will attract a lot of scepticism, which is why most will not post out in the open I suppose."

Yes, and that is a very good thing as it will weed out those systems which are genuine and those which are not. If a system stands the test of time and, perhaps more importantly, stands up to scrutiny, then we can conclude that it is very likely to be genuine. If it doesn't, then it probably isn't!

This particular system did not stand up to scrutiny, for reasons which have been documented in this thread and on other forums.
Report Norma Stitz July 16, 2010 7:48 PM BST
PianoMan Chris. You were actually around at the time and actually followed her selections for a time and actually put up a post on page 137.

I put up several posts querying the verisimilitude of 'her' prices.

There was no response and all the posts were removed.

PianoMan Chris, you doth protest too much.
Report PianoMan Chris July 19, 2010 9:16 AM BST
Ho hum...

Not really sure you read the post I put up fella... pity.

Report DoreenL July 19, 2010 11:40 AM BST

I wouldn't waste your time. Everyone knows Norma (AKA Mayoman)is still suffering from a bad case of unrequited love, that has left him bitter and twisted. As far as the Maria thread is concerened, its a  different kind of laying Mayo was interested in.
Report PianoMan Chris July 19, 2010 12:40 PM BST
Ah Ok lol. Thanks for the heads up.

I, like many others have been trying to get to the bottom of what actually went on back in that year. My experience I felt was kind of unique due to the fact that I 'got away' from her selections because I couldn't match her prices, and that made it too dangerous. (In fact I did put up a post that said that I wasn't recommending anybody to follow them for exactly that reason.. Maria got angry at that and said that even at worse prices it was still profitable... then funnily enough that part of the thread was deleted at some point).

However I stand by what I said.. when I got crossover selections from a different system... I was getting similar prices to her. I have no real reason to lie... but I guess it is still aftertiming.. coz there's no way to prove it. But, whatever... that was my experience.

One thing I never stated in my previous post though... and only just occurred to me in the past few days. I used to check her prices that she stated (Like Norma did) and I never ever saw a price that wasn't actually matched... (although I certainly remember she did get amazing prices). If it was a con, why would anyone make such a silly mistake as to not just look at the what had actually been available through the day?

And following on from this... apparently people asked for screenshot evidence of her prices (which I certainly don't remember ever coming up...), but.. if Norma saw that she regularly claimed prices that were never matched... surely Norma would have took screenshots of that? Or anyone else for matter... I would have done.. and they would have been up on every Horsey Forum going.

Just thinking out loud... don't shoot me down again.

I've just recently come back to looking at horses again, and I'm really fascinated by how that whole thread is still such a big talking point. Maybe I was conned all along and my selections prices were just lucky coincidences, I don't know... maybe it's impossible to find out now.

Report captainktheacetrader July 19, 2010 6:37 PM BST
Norma is Mayoman. PMSL.
Report Bones123 July 19, 2010 7:18 PM BST
01 Jul 10 22:03 

are you the same captain that used to post on flatstats and the trading forum

Reply please.
Report DoreenL July 20, 2010 8:26 AM BST
captainktheacetrader is also Mayoman (AKA Norma), 15 posts and not one of them worth reading. He is a little green man, nothing to do with coming from Mayo, he is simlpy full of envy.
Report Bones123 July 20, 2010 9:08 AM BST
chris I am sure maria wasnt stupid enough to post prices that werent matched. the question is did she match them and if you had been following her selections could you have matched them. the general consensus of option from people who followed the thread seems to be no to both. there is a similar problem with her current thread on massey. she puts up selections with "available" early prices from odds checker and records results at those prices. problem is we all know that a VC or PP early price are availavle in pennies. so the results as shown are nonsense as they cant be replicated. I would guess he EBA thread was the same.
Report cesarmanrique July 20, 2010 9:57 AM BST

Regarding Maria's threads on Adrian Massey's site, I think you are being a bit unfair in calling the results "nonsense". Here is an example of a current thread's results:

Strike-rate: 13/88 (14.8%)
Current run: 1W Exclamation
SP results: Bank 44.61, Loss 55.39, Next stake 1.34 points
Betfair SP results (net of 5% commission): Bank 47.65, Loss 52.35, Next stake 1.43 points
EP results: Bank 70.69, Loss 29.31, Next stake 2.12 points
Report .MayoMan July 21, 2010 9:13 PM BST
I am MayoMan.
Report Norma Stitz July 23, 2010 5:02 PM BST
I am Spartacus.
Report Norma Stitz July 23, 2010 8:34 PM BST
Achtung, achtung.

LLT on the plot. LLT on the plot.

Mayo was right. Mayo was right.

Eventually the bait would be taken. Eventually the bait would be taken.

Alice. Alice. WTF is Alice.
Report Norma Stitz July 24, 2010 6:23 PM BST
Mayo just informed me that I fecked up big style.

It should have been:

Doreen. Doreen. WTF is Doreen?
Report Norma Stitz July 25, 2010 6:37 PM BST
Doreen. Doreen. WTF is Doreen?
Report Norma Stitz July 25, 2010 9:43 PM BST
Mayo told me lying t0sspots are easily sussed.

It's called a screenshot.

Your move Doreen.
Report acxall July 27, 2010 3:57 AM BST
Norma, why don't you do everyone a favor and hide in a hole somewhere.  You are an annoying ****.
Report freddiewilliams August 1, 2010 12:11 PM BST
toma....have u given up?
Report Norma Stitz August 1, 2010 7:46 PM BST
"Norma, why don't you do everyone a favor and hide in a hole somewhere.  You are an annoying ****."

Favour has got a 'U' in it. As in cupid & stunt.
Report Trademate August 2, 2010 11:27 PM BST

Have you packed the thread in ?
Report Norma Stitz August 6, 2010 10:50 PM BST

Have you seen the light?
Report Norma Stitz August 7, 2010 6:45 PM BST
Toma looks like the second driver who has been just been given his orders.
Report Norma Stitz August 8, 2010 8:34 PM BST
Toma, you ever been to Salford?
Report Al Dente August 8, 2010 9:42 PM BST
Hey, big thuds - you need treatment mate.
Report Norma Stitz August 14, 2010 7:15 PM BST
Why has Toma vacated the premises?

What do you think small thuds?
Report Toma August 18, 2010 10:23 AM BST
Hiya guys, Sorry I haven't been around for a while but I am still here and will continue Maria soon.  Like I said its a profit or lose £500 trying system for me.  I have as Norma states for the time being though "vacated the premises".  However, it is only while I get my new sports prediction website up and running, I just launched my website on Monday 9th August so have been flat out with that. 

Apologies, for not keeping you guys upto date!
Report Norma Stitz August 19, 2010 8:40 PM BST
Toma, is that going to be a pay as you go site?
Report Toma August 20, 2010 7:39 PM BST
Hi Norma,

Not sure what you mean about "pay as you go" but it is £2 a go to play for a guaranteed £10 weekly jackpot.

If that's what you mean?
Report Toma August 20, 2010 7:40 PM BST
Ooops that was meant to say a £10,000 weekly jackpot
Report 7chald September 17, 2011 4:33 PM BST
does anyone know how many selections maria made, and over what space of time.
Report John_Cherry September 18, 2011 5:47 PM BST
10 months was the time period i think
Report mythical prince September 18, 2011 11:57 PM BST
maria isn't a bird. its a bloke
Report footyexpert27 March 20, 2012 9:00 PM GMT
I am going to join in the fun of the marias laying system in time for the flat season. Check this out at
Report senlac March 20, 2012 10:12 PM GMT
The Maria System depended on the odds she got for her selections.
She did not say how she chose her selections but the odds she said she got were exceptionally good and this was the real secret of her success.
Report 1977 March 21, 2012 3:30 AM GMT
Hi All,

I followed Maria's thread with great interest and do believe she managed to hit her £100,000 target.

She had her fair share of "Knocker's" but as all threads, backing or laying, they will always be there.

I am a layer and had a crack at posting up my lays around 3 years ago, but slightly tweaked Maria's staking strategy.  I basically included a few more price bands to try and extract a few extra £'s here and there when a lay price was borderline.

I always posted the lay price I achieved and also the S.P. I included level P+L figs for comparison.

My staking was as follows:

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £

If interested, here is the link to the thread

I am up for another challenge (as I have more time on my hands now that my oldest little girl is now at school FT!!)

I will expect an uphill struggle from day 1, a very bad start on day 1 and plenty of knockers.....from day 1.

If anyone is still using MSP - I hope my price bands will turn an extra profit if used.

I think I will perhaps give my old thread a resurrection rather than starting anew...Obv with a new starting bank.


Report Aunty Post March 21, 2012 8:18 AM GMT
I would guess that everyone followed this saga, and felt the euphoria and tension, as it
progressed and the stake amounts and risk became enormous!

It was a little like reading a good book where your imagination creates the appearance of the characters.

Maria was, in my mind, a beautiful ebony eyed, raven haired Hungarian beauty!

Wasn't her real name Andrew though, and the money just pretend?

Also weren't the bets placed very early, where very many times they had shortened considerably,
before the off?

This then compromised the recovery stake amount, which was miscalculated, as a result!
Report Burton-Brewers March 21, 2012 11:02 AM GMT
I had heard of this system but never followed it, I will follow your thread steve and see how you go.
Report SHAPESHIFTER March 21, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
I looked at this and, if I did it, it would be as "a challenge" but find that it contradicts my approach which is "less selection equals more".

I'm trying to hold 'steady' on an approach that returns around 15% a day that I am building from a bank. 

It's taking all aspects: backing/laying, making book, trading and punting to sustain.

I find that 'switching gears' works better.  i.e. I go into most horse races looking for lays or in-play lays (i.e. a horse going off at 8's that I feel will go to 3/1 or so but won't win so monitor after the off).  But if I can't find it, I'll switch to a back or look for a solid ew which I find is improving my strike rate on lays.

Dripping at small percents means playing a dozen or more events a day which exposes a punter to losses.
Report Aunty Post March 21, 2012 12:45 PM GMT
Wasn't her real name Andrew though, and the money just pretend?

Sorry, make that Adrian please!
Report SHAPESHIFTER March 21, 2012 5:41 PM GMT
I don't think it was Adrian (Massey).  Infact, pretty sure.
Report Aunty Post March 22, 2012 7:11 AM GMT
Well I hope it isn't as I would feel sullied, rather like being approached by a gorgeous girl
called Perla, in a club in Rimini, wanting a drink bought for £25 and was actually a ladyboy
(so someone told me)!
Report wittering March 22, 2012 7:35 AM GMT
If it was him, he should have called her 'Maria Sandsey' not 'Maria Santonix'. Although it would have given the game away a bit!
Report SHAPESHIFTER March 22, 2012 10:50 AM GMT
Report JML June 8, 2018 2:44 PM BST
Report i_agree_with_nick July 26, 2018 4:50 PM BST
I read about this sometime ago (not on Betfair).

Iirc, according to the article I read, her system was never validated because the prices quoted were often not available at the time she posted. Yes, there had been money matched earlier at the quoted odds but we don't know if it was hers.
Report Cardinal Scott July 29, 2018 3:30 PM BST
You can find the original thread on the Way Back Machine.
Report Lucky Sod July 29, 2018 7:33 PM BST
Here is Marias original first post

I've been reluctant to start off this thread, because I'm frightened of its turning out to be the kiss of death ... you have what you imagine to be a good system and start to explain it in public, and suddenly a wheel comes off ...* ???

I've come up with a laying system ...* :D

I'll record its daily selections and results in this thread ... until I get jeered off, anyway ...* :o

I'll try to post each day's selections by 1.00pm at the very latest, but I don't think I'll often manage to post them the night before.

Comments, general heckling and questions (but not about the details of my selection-process, please) are very welcome as we go along, but I'd better start off with something like an "FAQ" ...* 8)

STAKING: I want to minimise risks and maximise returns, of course (who doesn't?), which are always pretty difficult, not to say conflicting, objectives to combine. Like all forms of betting, the selections are only a part of the story. Betting on horses is notorious for people being able to have good selections and still lose money through poor money management. With laying in particular, IMHO the commonest reasons for failure are under-funding (not having a bank big enough for what you're trying to do) and disillusionment (getting too easily fed up with an inevitable losing run).

This isn't the time or place to get involved in a big discussion about whether the selections or the money management are more important - it suffices to say that without both aspects being good, sensible, reliable and proven, it's not possible to make steady profits ...*

The two common staking methods for laying are:-

(i) Laying to a fixed stake: I don't use this for two main reasons: first, the "accidents" are proportionally too expensive; secondly, it seems to me that it fails adequately to make the profits "deserved" after successfully identifying and laying shorter-priced losers.

(ii) Laying to a fixed liability: I don't use this either, because it's inherently mathematically unsound - it ignores the fact that accidents are far more likely to happen at the lower end of the scale: if I lay a 2/1 favourite (i.e. I lay it at an exchange price of 3.0), the overall risk of that bet losing (the horse winning) is of course higher than one which was a lay at 8.0 (7/1).

Instead I try to combine the best of both worlds by using what looks like a complicated mixture of the two systems mentioned above, but it's actually perfectly straightforward ...*

My staking system: I lay in three distinct exchange-price-bands of fixed backer's stakes.

At one end of the scale, if the exchange price available about the horse is less than 3.5 (less than 5/2), I lay to a stake of 1% of my current laying system bank. At the other end, if the price is between 7.5 and 11 (the latter figure being my cut-off: I don't lay anything higher than 10/1), I lay to a stake of 0.4% of my current bank. If the price is in-between these two bands (i.e. prices of 3.6 to 7.4), then I lay to a stake of 0.6% of my bank. As they say in those TV infommercials, "But wait - there's more!": I also combine this staking plan with a ratchet system (see below).

The are two other advantages with this staking system: first, the practicality of the situation when using the exchanges is that the backer's stake (rather than one's own liability) is the value which has to be typed into the little box on the screen, and this makes it quick and simple to do; secondly, nearly a year's figures have proven to me that this method minimises the variability of the results, and that's very, very important ...*

To summarise, with examples based on a starting bank of £3,000 (if you're reckless enough to try them, you can scale up or down proportionally to your own bank) ...

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (my liability under £75)

Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (my liability £46.80 - £115.20)

Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (my liability £78 - £132)

Ratchet System

If making profits, I increase all stakes in proportion to the bank on a daily basis. (I'd love to do it on a bet-by-bet basis, but that would assume that anyone following the system can be glued to their screen all afternoon, which isn't realistic. If you're working for a living - shock horror: please excuse my language! - you need to be able to put the bets on your lunch-hour.)

This means that at the end of each day, the next day's "current bank" figure is known. For example, if there's a good start and the £3,000 bank grows, then the stakes are worked out as proportion of the new higher figure, and increase slightly the next day. This may sound insignificant but it makes a huge difference to the results ...*

In contrast, after a losing day, I don't reduce stakes unless and until 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost, when I essentially re-start using the same percentages, but now of the new "65%-sized bank" ...* :?

Example: from a £3,000 start, if there's a net loss on the first day, the next day I still stake as if from a bank of £3,000 (i.e. to backer's stakes of £30, £18 and £12 depending on the price about each selection) until reaching £1,950 when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - dare I mention it? - down to £1267.50 - a further 35% loss).

The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank. If it happens (and so far it hasn't - famous last words?!) I'll explain it again.

It may sound a bit complicated but it's actually very simple. Not easy, but very simple ...* :

Please don't imagine that I'm claiming this to be a perfect laying system. There are one or two anomalies in it, but after lots of analysis and calculation in the early days, over the last year I've found this system practicable, straightforward and robust. And that's what matters.

In the next post, I'll complete the "FAQ" and hope to cover the practicalities ...*



(i) It's essential to keep (at the very least on paper) a separate bank for this system: the money can, if unavoidable, be mixed up in an account with other betting funds, but at the very least the "books" must be kept separately, otherwise you don't know where you are - it's not possible to win in the long run without keeping good records ... oooh, contentious! ...*

(ii) Terminology: there's always understandable confusion about discussing laying. For the record, if there's any apparent ambiguity, I'm always referring to the bet rather than the horse. So if I say that out of the day's selections, three won and one lost, and that the day's strike-rate was 75%, I mean that three of the horses lost and one was a winner on which I paid out. (But if that's the actual strike-rate every day, we won't get far: mixed-price-bracket laying systems generally need a very high strike-rate).

(iii) This is a slow and steady system, not a get-rich-quick scheme, and any attempt to turn it into that, or to escalate the stakes when losing, is destined for disaster. With laying, in particular, the swings and arrows of outrageous fortune can be particularly vicious, and it's all too easy for gradually accumulated profits to be wiped out quickly by an uncharacteristically unlucky run. I hope that my staking system allows for this, to a large degree ...*

(iv) Some of the selections tend to shorten in price and others tend to drift. The reality is that it's not possible, overall, to lay at SP and I would therefore be misleading people about my profits if I quoted the results to SP. So I'm going to keep two separate sets of results ...

1. SP + 10%: These results will quote all prices to SP + 10% (i.e. as if the price, from the layer's point of view, was 10% worse than SP).

2. My own actual results, recording the prices I've found and used.

No method of doing this is going to be perfect, but before deciding on this method of keeping the results, I've talked it over with the Administrator and we've decided, hopefully, that this "double results" system is the least open to criticism ...* :?

(v) If a selection is priced at more than 11 on the exchanges when I first look at it (and this really isn't going to happen often, because they make me nervous), then with one exception I leave my bet unmatched at 11 and just wait and see what happens. The exception is that if it's priced at more than 14 to lay, I cross it off the list completely and don't even go back to look at it again (this is a half-hearted attempt to avoid becoming the victim of any "major coups"). In the "starting-price + 10% results", I won't be recording as a bet anything that set off at more than 10/1.

(vi) The exchanges charge a variable commission on profits. I'm going to allow for the highest commission at the most expensive of the exchanges, and deduct 5% from all wins. (Note that this is calculated on a "per event" basis, so if you lay two or more horses in a race, the commission is charged only on your net profit on that race.)

(vii) This is (comparatively, at least) a "high turnover" system. The idea is that every bet made represents "value" and has a positive expectation, and therefore the more of them there are, the better the returns. It's not for the faint-hearted! Back these with real money at your own risk and never with money that you can't afford to lose.

(viii) I've found that it's nearly always a mistake to "pick and choose" with this system. Lay all the selections (that can be done within the cut-off of 11) or none of them.

(ix) When I put the bets on, I don't always just take the best current price, depending partly on how much of a hurry I'm in and whether I have shoe-shopping plans for the afternoon. Unless I think the price is particularly likely to lengthen (see "Lay, Back and Think of Winning" by Nigel Paul for the best simple explanation of how you can judge this), I'm likely to leave my lay unmatched at a price in-between what's available to back and what's available to back. Usually my lay will get matched. But I only do this if I can keep an eye on it, and change my mind quickly about what price to lay at if the market moves against me ...* ???

(x) Within my cut-off of 11, the market moving against me when I have an unmatched bet is not a reason for me to abandon a lay: if it's part of the system and it's not above 11, I lay it.

(xi) The overwhelming majority of the lays in this thread will be win lays, but there will be the occasional place lay included too. These are much rarer, but I have a very high strike-rate with them ...* ;)

(xii) Patience and discipline lead to profits ...*
Report Steve Voltage September 22, 2022 11:46 AM BST
12 year old thread Laugh but does anyone know if daily results were ever published for this laying system? Did Maria suffer long losing runs?
Still the greatest betting story imo.
Report Tiger Tiger September 23, 2022 11:55 AM BST
Report Tiger Tiger September 23, 2022 11:57 AM BST
Report Cardinal Scott September 27, 2022 10:41 AM BST
Report Steve Voltage September 27, 2022 7:29 PM BST
Never realised Maria was such a beauty Love
Report ProPunta October 10, 2022 8:59 PM BST
Hi guys.

I had a go at laying horses with MLS back in 2009. I Posted all of my lay selections up in the morning, with prices for matched bets. On occasion I would leave the laying of some selections if it looked like they were shortening.

I started with a £5,000 bank and finished with a profit of (Over 110 days):

£7,681.74. (£12,681.74) Using MLS.

167.45 points to level stakes.

Strike rate of 87.19%.

I also changed the staking plan % by adding extra price bands.

Here is a list of my betting price bands:

Wednesday 5th August 2009

Starting Bank: £5,000
Bank:          £12,861.74
Bank High:     £16,460.78

Day 109

Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged:

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60
Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14
Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68
Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22
Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76
Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30
Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84
Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38
Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92

I found that posting my selections up each morning and evening helped with discipline a great deal. Discipline is definitely a key part to success of any betting.

The biggest downside to daily posting of my selections were the continuous knockers
of what I was trying to do, especially when I took a loss.

There were too many "It can't be done" types, bless 'em.

Here is the link if anyone is interested in having a read through my thread.

Good evening guys,

Report cpfc4me October 11, 2022 6:51 PM BST
@ProPunta: What was the return on your lay selections to level stakes?

The success for Maria was in the selections rather than in any magical staking plan.

"What came to light only later was that Maria’s father was connected with several bookmakers, and through her contacts, she was able to obtain privileged information that helped with her selections."

This is where she gained her edge, and raising stakes simply compounded those profits.

As this post sums it up: "The key sentence there is that the system is profitable because the selections are profitable at fixed liability, not because there is anything magical about the laying bands."

If you have an edge, the sky is the limit.
Report ProPunta October 24, 2022 2:05 PM BST
Hi cpfc4me,

I hope you're well.

Returned 167.45 points to level stakes, while posting selections here, pre-race.

My overall s/r was 87.19%.

(Have got average SP & ROI in my notes, will add to post when I dig them out)

I agree that to turn a profit over time, you first need to show a profit at level stakes, to prove you have your edge. The Staking bands or any other staking plan will only compound or slow your losses if not profitable at level stakes initially.

Who knows whether Ms Santonix hit the £100k, but what I do know, is that her "System" got a lot of people in the betting community very excited at the time!
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