Is it possible to do worse in the long run than a proverbial pin sticker?

Is it possible to do worse in the long run than a proverbial pin sticker?

Most will just do the same

Even with the research

Ask zipper ...he uses his nurse's needle to select em ]:)

I reckon you would be about 5% down give or take a % or two however good you were.

yeah must be possible didnt some racing pundit get beat my a dog? reckon its quiet common actually.

for example studying form all morning, make your picks. Go to the bookies. but 100s have done same thing and beat you to the best prices? what do you do? stick with your picks or lay them now?

thanks if they even look at the prices.

Perhaps if you followed the tips of whichever tipster did best each week in the following week you would get some really bad value and do worse than the pin sticker

Very much so CB, it's a common phenomenon, especially in American sports where people look at the wrong stats.

In highly liquid markets like match odds for big football games, I can't see how you could do much worse betting before the start of the game.

Backing and or laying randomly in highly liquid match odds markets (where the difference between back and lay price does not exceed "one price increment") there are two factors to consider to work out your negative expectancy:

First is expected loss due to commission.
Second is the expected loss due to the spread ( the fair price should be the back or lay price at the extreme, but usually somewhere in between the two).

However if people are able to profit consistently in these markets pre kick-off by taking offers (as opposed to creating the spread), they must also be taking this money from somewhere, so perhaps the effects would be slightly more negative than assumed, taking only the two primary factors in consideration. That's a difficult one to work out though.

In less liquid markets the spreads are such that random betting would result in losses piling up much faster.

Certain winners may be able to make similar amounts in illiquid markets (low amount matched but high edge) as highly liquid markets (high amount matched but low edge).

Definitely.

Pins have no emotions nor an ability to over-complicate things or make wrongly thought out decisions.

Nor can pins over-react to what they hear or be swayed by their fellow pins and their sticking decisions.

should do a schake style challege with random picks