football: srsly, there isn't a winning technique...

and of course, if there was a 100% sure winning technique (even in the long run), everyone would be betting instead of working :)

Consistency. If you are looking at a set strategy, as you mention laying the draw, then I believe you need to do the same things every time. Therefore you either cover 0-0 every time or never, as soon as you start being selective in that matter, it will come back and get you!!

Were you laying the draw to back it back after a goal? If so i, personally, think that it one of the worst strategies ever used on betfair, cue everyone telling me they made 4 million last season doing this :), by all means lay underpriced draws but if you're laying the draw to back after a goal you may just as well lay 0-0 and be done with it

buzzer

I only made £3m doing that last year.

btw buzzer,

Your invite to Mustique with your two ladies is still open. I have wireless next to the pool now.

:) Alex 5 or 6 years ago i used to make decent, nothing massive but acceptable, profits just putting up poor value draw prices straight after a goal when the FCG ers were falling over themselves to green out, happy days ;)

Peter Pannu: you are right, in the beginning i took everytime the insurance, but with a small bank of 50 euros, it take quite a lot on your profits, so i decided to be selective, and there we went.... :(



buzzer: yep, was reselling after a goal...

the good thing about laying the draw is that you buy it at relatively low stake (3.5 to 4), but laying the 0-0 is everytime between 12 and 18... which is quite huge for a starting bank of 50euros. At least with laying the draw, i was able to "split" my small bank on 2-3 differents matches

buzzer 23 Apr 13:45
Alex 5 or 6 years ago i used to make decent, nothing massive but acceptable, profits just putting up poor value draw prices straight after a goal when the FCG ers were falling over themselves to green out, happy days


You are losing your touch.

How is Gloria? Is she well?

She's always on the run Alex, so Laura keeps telling me anyway

buzzer 23 Apr 13:52
She's always on the run Alex, so Laura keeps telling me anyway



That is a shame. She cooks up a lovely curry.

Such is life.

Winning at any form of gambling in the long term can only be achieved through Science or Art ( talent ) Or a combination of the two.

Winning through Art ( Having a talent for it ) is either something you have or you don't.

Winning through Science on the other hand can be achieved by hard work combined with the ability to think logically and individualistically.

To win through Science, you need to find an edge that is not widely known about.
Take for instance the "Lay The draw" technique you refer to, this is common knowledge and hence if it worked millions of people would be doing it.

To win through Science, you need to either come up with something thats relatively unique or add something unique to a "Common Knowledge" system.


To come up with something unique, you either have to have a Eureka moment of astute thought or a lot of hard work using trial and error.



Boring but true I think.



Thomas Edison is attributed with trying over 3,000 compounds before settling on tungsten for the light bulb.

Escapee


I just sat in the bath one day and thought about it very hard.

:)

Then I thought that this bloke called Newton that discovered that apples fell to the ground was a bit simple. After I concluded that I have never looked back and I have tasted Glorias currys.

Escapee:

blackjack is known by everyone, and the technique behind *profesionnal* blackjack is to be found easily on the internet... find the basic table, study it, learn how to count cards, and then apply the advanced technique, and you'll get money...

by telling you that, i dont want to deny what you've just said, of course you need science (math, logic) to found a working system, but the fact that it's an unique and unknown one isn't a must....

Maths is everything tbh. It is basic maths too and it does not to be overcomplicated.

Elt, You'll maybe notice if you re-read my post I am talking about winning in the long term.



If you straight up card count Black Jack in any casino arround the world, you'll be asked to leave and not return in pretty short order and hence would not fall into the category of "long term winner".

If however you add something unique to this system you maybe able make to the longer term.


A group of students managed to pull this off for a couple of years by adding a bit of uniqueness,
They seperated the tasks of counting and betting big at the appropiate times. They would go to the casino inividually and 4 of them would sit at different tables, always betting the minimum $5, whilst doing the card counting. The 5th member would sit at the bar with a cup full of $100 ***** drinking and acting very drunk and obnoxious, Occasionally roving round the casino placing the odd $200 bet and making sure he was noticed and noted as a drunk with big money. When the Count became advantageous at a BJ table the $5 player would signal by scratching thier heads or
what ever and he would drunkenly bowl up to the table and place bets at the table maximum for 3 or 4 goes until the count dissapated.

But like most edges where you don't own the premises, they disappear over time, Face recognition software eventually rumbled them.


Add a bit of uniqueness to a common knowledge system and you might find an edge for a while.