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Clacherholiday 2 Good Morning too you ... The wise men best time to take em on is when they nap 4..5..6.. in a race why take 6 there are 5 certs losers in that race they all may get beat . seen it loads of times ..... but i pick 1 or 2 of them naps swat the form and lay em ...Your other point about RED books i totally agree .
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Take big races naps a plenty the Grand National last week 33 naps in the race Dont say you cannot pick a couple of losers ....... By the way the winner Dont push It Had 1 nap on it and it was 10/1 jf .. zip layed 4 in that race all 4 got beat ..
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Tiger not the best day i ever had .. but Ill take 5 points profit every day of the week ...
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Take today Newmarket 3.00 4 of the 8 runners are naped .... 3.30 4 of the 9 runners are naped ... they cannot alll win ... Zip will lay 2 in each race get it right theres 4 points ..
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Clacherholiday 2 ....... your word by all means lay em but if you aint getting a fair deal on the horses odds you will be taken to the cleaners or something like that ..
Ok i have to disagree with you there .. why simple if the horse cannot win it cannot win dont matter if it 3/1 or 33/1 ,,,,, never let the odds make your mind up .. the odds are the last thing i look at .. and yes ive been a bookie a tipster odds compieler for the dogs been a journo .. now retiered .. been in this game since 1966 .. seen em all learned plenty ....... |
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Hi clacher,
surely you're laying the football teams at the correct betfair price aswell ? |
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Zip, I've been having computer problems so I don't feel like checking your lays etc. I think you are in profit even with the bad start, remember 100 on the bounce!! ;)
The only thing you can congratulate yourself on, imo, is that you have chosen the right time and at the right prices to lay... For this month, if you had layed every horse in the UK below 11.00 BSP, your profit after 5% comm would have been +40 points. For this month, if you had layed every horse in the UK below 7.00 BSP, your profit after 5% comm would have been +33 points. For this month, if you had layed every horse in the UK below 3.00 BSP, your profit after 5% comm would have been +13 points. So you are playing on a field with the wind behind you... but it could change around next week! :( |
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Tightfist many thanks for your reply Sir .. Zip has 11 lays today and 5 backs .. just cutting out some of the hot horses ..... some are buzzers zip dont lay the buzzers ....... my post on lays will be 1.00pm enjoy the party ..... its party time .
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Tightfist is that nap Horses or all Horses ??
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OK lets go .
Ripon 2.35 lay Van Bossed . Newmarket 3.00 lay Doncaster Rover and Mullonmoleanhour . Chels 3.20 lay Chilli Rose . Newmarket 3.35 lay Dubawi Phantom and Morana . Chels 3.55 lay Galaxy Rock ..Sangfroid and Picture This Chels 4.30 lay Picabo and Jolly Boys Outiing .. thats it good luck .. my 5 backs i will keep to myself |
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That was for all horses, I'm not up-to-date with the naps due to computer problems.
Here is a LAY table (in points) to wet your appetite... For napped horses (not tipsters) Less than 11.00...7.00....3.00...3-7 31-Jan...10.62...30.74.....3.11..24.03 28-Feb..-27.83...64.08..-14.90..74.73 31-Mar..-25.43...40.28..-30.19..61.76 running P/L i.e. March was a loser for all except less than 3.00's. Maybe I'll be up-to-date later to day. |
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Sorry, mistake, I didn't see the minus in front of the 30 in the Less than 3.00 column. March was a loser all for all lay prices shown.
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Still didn't get it right. Less than 11.00 BSP gained 2 points!! ;)
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Ok i have to disagree with you there .. why simple if the horse cannot win it cannot win dont matter if it 3/1 or 33/1 ,,,,, never let the odds make your mind up .. the odds are the last thing i look at ..
thats fine, youre being selective, if you think a horse will lose then the odds dont matter as much, you'll have a better strike rate than the guy laying everyone. if you blindly lay them then you arent being selective with the naps prices, youll be laying 10/1 shots that have a chance to win at 15.0+ on here, it all adds up. Hi clacher, surely you're laying the football teams at the correct betfair price aswell ? years of experience, football punters are bloody terrible, over time horse punters get close to losing the amount they should with the over round, football punters lose 30-40% of their stakes over hundreds of thousands of bets. it almost doesnt matter what price im laying them at because the stakes on each selection vary, if i was using level stakes then it'd have more of an impact. besides, at the sharp end of markets the prices are often whats available at the bookies, my books on here end up looking exactly like the books id see when i was odds compiling.. big red on the fav, smaller green on the outsider and a huge huge green on the draw. |
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midnite chase... that should have been my nap :(
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Clacher backing them all or laying them all .. is the lazy mans game .. you cannot win .. do you remember a guy Union Jack started a thread lay Alan Keyte .. zip told him from day one Union Jack you will do your brains we had many a runin but at the end of the day he did his brains .. had the grace to come on here and said you were right zip .. not heard from him since .. take Alan Keyte today in the naps table .. he has had 85 winners and is not in the top 17 .. the way to go wiyh Alan if i agree well i back the nag . if i dont agree zip is very happy to lay his seltion ..
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Tighfist shoder wooder couder ... dont count .. have fun ..
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Take Today Alan picked Captain Chris Chel 2.10 if you looked at the form it was fav and should have been .. zip backed the nag at 9/4 on here ..
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Tomorrow i may lay his horse .. it goes like that .. but if the comp was run on who picks the most winners heres my odds Alan Keyte 1/3 Lee Sobot 3/1 .. Bob Watts 5/1 20/1 bar ..
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Backing the naps is a gold mine Zip.
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Laying the naps is a gold mine too.
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Back the winners,lay the losers.Easy.
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Tiger now your getting it .. god your hard work ..
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This racing post naps table zip just revieved the odds Alan Keyte 4/9 lee Sobot 9/4 Bob Watts 9/2 .. 100/8 bar thats about 122 percent in a 52 runner field .. thats fair
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Does laying losers and backing winners work on an any horse,any race or just on the Naps ?
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The naps boys why take today 3 meetings 254 runners .. only 53 nazp boys .. keep it simple you Know it makes sense the other day you said it dont matter it could be a list you sent me ...... zzzzzzzzzz
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ive never seen the stats for laying the press challenge lot but id imagine theyd appear more favorable to layers than the full naps boys.
i say appear, because ultimatley it'd be a wild goose chase. |
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Hey Tiger take it your new to this lark .. nowt wrong with that .. but study the boys for the next 6 or 7 years .. and even you will see the patterns ..... good luck .
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roughly speaking, from 20,228 bets, the press challenge lads are down £646.45, thats just 3%
take into account betfairs cut and the the higher prices on here, youd be losing money if you laid them all, this is despite every one of them posting an overall loss. this is where i went wrong when looking at the naps table, all i could see were losses, what i didnt see was how many hundreds/thousands of bets that were involved |
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Clacher the prees challenge ive got the stats .. they are poor at picking winners . the trouble is they are only 12 of em .. give me 53 any day cause iam greedy its one of the 7 sins greed .. but it pays
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Clacher your still banging the drum about laying them ALL .. you cannot win lay some ... back some./.. leave plenty alone .. god your hard work .. after today zip will not post lays again .. By ...
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Yeah Clacher,just back the winners and lay the losers,how difficult can it be ?
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no need to put any work into me at all zipper, like i said its all in the past for me, i still enjoy reading people taking the same path i did.
off for lunch in the garden, see if i can spot any ash clouds through this blazing sunshine, my next bet isnt until after 6 |
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Off to lunch in the garden ...... blazing sunshine here .. you most live in a different time zone than us .. its freezing cold here and its 5.40 pm thats tea time here ..
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GMT BST here also.
sunshine was indeed blazing and late lunch was average |
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that message was posted at 4.17pm UK time btw
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P/L for the year so far laying napped horses
Less than 11.00...7.00....3.00...3-7 31-Jan...10.62...30.74.....3.11..24.03 28-Feb..-27.83...64.08..-14.90..74.73 31-Mar..-25.43...40.28..-30.19..61.76 14-Apr..+4.25...63.09..-26.43..79.30 For April napped horses less than 11.0 BSP = +30 vs +40 all For April napped horses less than 7.00 BSP = +23 vs +33 all For April napped horses less than 3.00 BSP = +4 vs +13 all Draw your own conclusions... |
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Tightfist Good Morning Just checked my records your not far out but your out .. anyhow lets not knit pick .. your figs are for ALL Naps .. you will make much much more backing some when they pick a cert .. and laying some ,.. and leave plenty alone .. has a rule of thumb out of the 53 each day zip looks to lay say 8 ..9 .. ..or 10 .. and looks for 4 or 5 win bets ........ After all they average 12 winners a day ...Back the winners ..Lay the losers .. easy .
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Tightfist take yesterday The boy got 13 naps up 5 naps were on Elusive Pimpernel in that race I layed Dubawi Phanton and Morana .. and backed the winner .. why the winner was a cert so i though and so it proved .. by the way thats my fav bet .. if you think you know the winner lay the rest pays twice ...
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Tightfist same with the 3.00 zip layed Doncaster Rover and Mullionmileanhour ( not quick enough ) forget the pun .. why i could not see em beating Equiano which i back .. ok it was close but at the end of the day they both lost ..
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