General Betting
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27 Sep 09
11:40
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Date Joined:
10 Dec 07
1) dont follow soccer - watch about 1 game a month, and the world cup
2) seen increasing comentary on the lack of draws in 2009/2010
3) just looked at last two years. 195 draws last year 200 draws the one before.
4) current rate in 2009/2010 will se the years finish on ~30 draws
I assume football has not changed that much....a cursory glace at past tables seems to show consistancy across seasons.... but maybe the distinction between top andbottom is greater this year?
so
a) are the draws being priced bigger given they have not been coming in?
b) it is time for mean reversion - and to back the bigger priced draws, if they have indeed drifted based on results?
thinking about backing every draw untill the end of the season.
comments?
2) seen increasing comentary on the lack of draws in 2009/2010
3) just looked at last two years. 195 draws last year 200 draws the one before.
4) current rate in 2009/2010 will se the years finish on ~30 draws
I assume football has not changed that much....a cursory glace at past tables seems to show consistancy across seasons.... but maybe the distinction between top andbottom is greater this year?
so
a) are the draws being priced bigger given they have not been coming in?
b) it is time for mean reversion - and to back the bigger priced draws, if they have indeed drifted based on results?
thinking about backing every draw untill the end of the season.
comments?
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Replies: 318
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I was going to start this yesterday..... so I am already
8 bets in 'profit' |
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Call me stupid, but isn't this like saying "the last 20 coin flips have been heads, so we should see more tails than heads in the future?"
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I think he's saying that the markets may be now betting on heads at 2.05 even though it's still an evens shot.
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not really, Betfairy, because he does suggest an at least superficially plausible reason why the underlying fundamentals might have changed.
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averages dont work like that .
from today onwards ,there should be average draws for the rest of the season ,there wont be an overflow to make up for the lack of draws so far |
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Betfairy
You are partially correct in reference to doing this following coins tosses (assuming you could agree the coin was indeed fair - or the mecanisim of the toss was fair and unbiased) that would be labelled stupid by many. potentially not by me. but the asuumed price move gives some credance to my stupid suggestion. |
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anyway i have decided to take the leap.
rules are 1) stop if I get 100K up 2) stop if I get 150K down 3) 5K per draw every Premierships game till the end of the season or untill on of the above happens. |
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Back Your
Odds Your Stake Your Profit The Draw 3.8 £5,000.00 £14,000.00 Ref: Bet matched: £5,000.00 |
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thinly veiled I have 150k thread.
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Come on, why not make it more exciting, use some decent sized stakes rather than just pocket money :D
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at least tell us which match you've bet on.
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Stop this nonsense, ffs.
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I think this may be a good strategy. Having studied the frequency of 0-0 draws in top European leagues over past seasons I have reached the conclusion that there is very often a reversion to the average level over the course of a season after a particular trend one way or another early on. (The pricing is also very accurate in most top leagues for what it's worth). I would think that 1-1 and 2-2 may follow the same pattern, but that's not a view backed up by any evidence.
Good luck Magician - I expect this to go well personally. |
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only one game today.
also if you cut and paste your bet out of the My bets window on a match.... it does not include the game |
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need to do it this way to show the game
Sunderland -£5,000.00» £0.00 1.79 £19245 1.8 £24557 1.81 £18338 1.82 £12254 1.83 £26104 1.84 £2924 Wolves -£5,000.00» £0.00 5.2 £2854 5.3 £2871 5.4 £2207 5.5 £2281 5.6 £6288 5.7 £3782 The Draw £14,000.00» £0.00 3.65 £5512 3.7 £7230 3.75 £4167 3.8 £922 3.85 £5463 3.9 £3634 |
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I'd never even contemplate losing 150K on a hunch- and I'm with coachbuster et al that this doesn't really seem sensible for the reasons given above. However If Magician has this kind of money to loose then presumably he won it somehow (surely no-one deposits this much to lose it) so presumably he must have a good idea what he's doing.
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There doesnt seem to have been one draw in the top haif of the prem this season
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There may have been a change in the underlying fundamentals. The reality of 3pts for a win is still filtering thru into the sludge that is the typical managerial brain...
Playing for draws gets you relegated. But equally, being too aggressive is counterproductive, as it gets you beat. They are still trying to balance this up, which could account for the reversion phenomenon. But the pendulum could stop at any moment and...may have already done so. Best of Luck, Magician! |
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I always thought using short term trends and averages is flawed because each event is independent. There would be something in it if the draw odds are bigger, but not sure they're. If they're they may quickly revert to norm when the results do. Using the same reasoning this fred could just as easily been started a few weeks ago and been X amount down.
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Agree with Okuma re the odds quickly adjusting if the trend changes.
Not sure the events are independent. The technicos are adapting their tactical systems thru the course of the season, adjusting to each others formations, discussing it at UEFA coaching seminars, etc. |
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The basic premise behind this thread firmly falls under the "gamblers fallacy" like the coin example.
However, like the OP says, if theres a underlying/fundamental shift behind the lower frequency of draws, then this is a valid question to ask. The probability of a draw is directly linked to the total goal expectancy. More the goals expected in the match, the less likely a draw is perceived to occur. Therefore, if the lower number of draws is a genuine fundamental shift and not just short term randomness, then it will be because goals are more likely then previously, for whatever reason. The question to ask now is, are there any genuine reason why people should expect more goals then previously? Rule changes? Change in ref "philosphy?" More "gun-ho" tactics? An exedous of decent goalkeepers and/or defenders? Im not fully convince on any of these and right now, my bet is that its just small data sample syndrome. One way to check (although time consuming) would be look over say the past 10 seasons and see if there are other blocks of matches (equal to the number played so far this sample) to see if this draw frequency has appeared before. If such a run occurs mid season for example, its going to be less easily recognised in general unlike it happening at the start of the season where just looking at league tables can make it clear to see. I remember a period last season where there were many low scoring games occuring one after another. So much so that there were many threads on the forum complaining that English football was getting boring in general and so on. Again, this might indicate short term randomness. Total goal expectantcy is slightly higher at the start of a season and at the end of the season conpared to the middle part. However, this is long way from explaining the current frequency gap happening right now. By the way... Magician, Just out of curiousity, were you trying to back the draw in the Plymouth/Forest match yesterday? |
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The probability of a draw is directly linked to the total goal expectancy.
Says one statistical analyses. Please show me the Footbasll Association rule book which stipulates this. |
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Betfairy,
Im not sure what point you're trying to make here. You dont agree that increased goals in match decreases the likliehood of a draw? |
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In your model I'm sure it does. But you're stating a fact about reality based on a theoretical world. Strong words.
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Had you said:
"In my statistical model, the probability of a draw is directly linked to the total goal expectancy." then I would probably have agreed with you :) |
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LOL!
Betfairy, you really are a wind-up merchant arent you?! :) |
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The lack of draws is only in the Premier League so far, and in all the other English Leagues the figures are normal. I think the lack of draws in the Premier League so far is down to two things, a) short sample b) more than average goals in the Premier League.
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I dont see a difference between this and choosing lotto numbers that are "overdue"
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How very dare there be more than average goals!
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How very dare there be...
Betfairy, you been drinking ? |
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There's a strong suspicion that I have been, though I wouldn't want to quatify it. ;)
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I got ridiculed when I said favs were due at a meeting because there had been very few win in the last 5 meetings (horses) - this is exactly the same..............more goals are scored in the early part of the season, that is why there has been a lack of draws so far.........runs and streaks happen in sport, they won't last forever........neither will a host of draws over the next few weeks happen to make up for the current streak.........when defences get stronger and teams start working each other out, we will see 2 or 3 draws again every week..............although I don't think teams settle for a draw nowadays, Liverpool lost only two games all last season but because they drew so many, they still fell short of winning the title...........so more teams even down the bottom are prepared to gamble and go for three points..........12 wins will keep you up, 8 wins and 4 draws will get you relegated.......we will have to see, but I suggest within the next month we will go back to seeing 2 or 3 draws every weekend............if the host is placing 5k on the draw, may I suggest he/she will be trading out as soon as the first goal goes in.......
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Bet 1 27 Sept Draw Sunderland v Wolves 5000 @ 3.8 NON DRAW -5000 Total -5000
Bet 2 28 Sept Draw Man City v West Ham 5000 @ TBC |
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Big cojones.Good luck!!
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The Betfairy 27 Sep 16:41
The probability of a draw is directly linked to the total goal expectancy. Says one statistical analyses. Please show me the Footbasll Association rule book which stipulates this. The probability of a draw is a function of the expected scoring rates of the two teams, and how these rates will change at various scorelines. Working out what these rate changes are is the really challenging part of football modelling, and why the football markets on here are still relatively inefficient. |
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Please show me the Footbasll Association rule book which stipulates this.
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Well, the truth of what I have said (which, admittedly, without specification of the critical rate changes) follows simply from the definitions of 'expected scoring rate', 'rate change' and 'probability'), because, to say that the probability of a draw is p is to say that the it is expected with probability p that the two teams will score the same amount of goals.
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Sorry, the above should read:
Well, the truth of what I have said (which, admittedly, without specification of the critical rate changes is rather vacuous) follows simply from the definitions of 'expected scoring rate', 'rate change' and 'probability'), because, to say that the probability of a draw is p is to say that the it is expected with probability p that the two teams will score the same amount of goals. |
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I'm surprised they bother playing football at all. Why not feed that formula into the fixtures computers, then allow the teams to roll dice?
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