MY GREAT SYSTEM

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Malmouth
What does this mean


Betting Lay on Any unquoted [half time score] seems to be quite sure too.

mamouth007 20 Mar 17:31
Betting Lay on Any unquoted [half time score] seems to be quite sure too.

I checked all the games results of every football game that was played since Sunday 11th March to Monday 19th.

960 games played, and only 22 losing bets by betting that way.
Only 13 of the 22 were unpredictable.

13 / 960 it means 1.35% of losing bets. 98.65% of winning bets.

That's some seriously flawed logic

By saying that you are saying that you would have seen 9 of the 22 unquoteds coming and avoided them - ridiculous

you are also saying that of the other 938 games, all of those were predictably NOT unquoted at HT - again ridiculous since the 9 unquoteds that you "saw coming" would have involved games where you would have expected goals and therefore have avoided.

Even if you refute the above (and you would be foolish to do so) you would still only have 13/951 not 13/960 - unless you are suggesting that in the 9 "supposedly predictable" games that you BACEKD the unquoted at halftime?

Christ, reading this fresh, from the start is horrific. When I read about the last selection (Wednesday v Colchester) I felt terrible. I was on overs for this game (obviously no where near the same cash), and I thought it was in the bag at HT (Colchester to chase, Wednesday countering etc).

Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................

If you study the form of the 2 teams..it s not difficult to predict a result

:) - if it was that friggin easy then everyone would be quids in.

I hope he has learned his less, but not to the detriment of his family or sanity (although that probably was broke in the first place.)

rebelred 21 Mar 21:43


Christ, reading this fresh, from the start is horrific. When I read about the last selection (Wednesday v Colchester) I felt terrible. I was on overs for this game (obviously no where near the same cash), and I thought it was in the bag at HT (Colchester to chase, Wednesday countering etc).


Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................
Hopefully no one will seriously try this again.................


They will,as this "system" is 100% guaranteed to make money,as it is impossible too "lose 8 in row".

Eddie!

I'm a little surprised this can to an end as quick as it did though. Personally I would say IF you were going to try this you should actually go with unders rather that overs.

Should still be up top to serve as a reminder! Hope you're ok kennicky remember there are easier ways to make a few than going mad with reckless kamikaze staking plans. You took the lazy punters way out and paid the price! Good luck for the future under your new forum name :)

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Back by demand.

bump

For anyone that thinks bad runs don't happen.....

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^^^
up we go

Thats it, im trying it!

Cannot allow this thread to disappear. The next time someone comes along with an "infallible" chasing system they should be told not to do a Kennicky and referred straight to this thread.

To be honest, it's a phenomenal effort to come up with a system that fails SO QUICKLY...

Poor lad

ttt almost dropped off !

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Is it not about time we let this one go?

Maybe it is optomist ;-)

Maybe it isn't...

I think it is now, it's been about for a while and it can't stay on the board forever!

what a dumb ass

as soon as he loses he doesnt return to the thread

If this system works and everyone go for it - who will lose?

Hi.

I don't say that you are sure to win with my way to Lay any unquoted in the Half time score market.

But it's a good way to bet.
If you check all the results you see that only a small percentage of games could make you lose.

And most of those losing results are predictable.

Predictable because the level between the teams that are playing against each other is to big.

My advise is not to Lay any unquoted if:

* If there are more than 10 places between the 2 teams of the same league. For exemple 5th against 12th is ok. 4 against 15th is not ok.

* If one of the first 3 teams of the league is involved.
* If one of the last 2 teams of the league is involved.

* If it's a cup game. National cup, European cup. Strange things always happen in the cup.

* If it's a Dutch second league game.

If a game doesn't fit with one of these rules i don't bet.

This kind of market is not available for a lot of games.

Surprises happen from time to time. But it rare so if you only play 1 or 2 games a day you have to be very unlucky to lose your bet.

The fact of the matter is this:

1) You have "data mined" most of that information, rather than coming up with the theory and then back testing it with the data.

2) The people you are laying are 99% likely to be market makers. They know more than you and can price things up more accurately than you.

3) I strongly dispute that this is "predictable" and "unpredictable". Proof this over 1000 bets and after commission, I'll take 1.10 that you will be losing.

I guess chronicle losers keep extensive records...

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Just read all of this - when will people learn !!!!

bumped.

... can't lose 8 on the trot.... :-)

Just for m u f f fuffler - have a read of this thread, its the same as your current one...............

As the wise heads point out, eventually you are doomed. Just a matter of time.........

Interesting........check out his other thread.

seeing this again makes me feel old. I remember it as it happened.
a true idiot with lifetime of free rides on the numpty bus.

Read this today for the first time.........what a classic.

So deluded with his "great system" that he was unable to see the EXCELLENT advice which was being given by others.

I dont usually like to laugh at the misfortunes of others, but this.........this is just something else, ....and yes it is funny and such a good lession for others.

Motoko Kusanagi 13 Mar 22:35
Why don't people get it?

Here Kenniky I make it easy for you.

V.iable
A.pplication of
L.ogic
U.tility and
E.conomics

Motoko Kusanagi 13 Mar 22:54
I eagerly awaiting new "impossible to lose 9 in row" method.
That will work for sure. Not like 8 in row scheme as that obviously just fruitcake plan.

What happened to this funky fella? Used to do quite well on the the old 1+ if I remember. Did he go bust too?

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For Green Willow

Just discovered this priceless jewel on here..... had a read from start to finish,..... excellent Stuff !!!

let me bring back some of the classics for all of us to enjoy and to quickly hook in the newcommers who where as unfortunate as me by not getting involved from the very first Moments.... :).

kenniky 27 Feb 23:42
"i know that winners are not well accepted in this society but i don t care......you are chronicle losers and you like to be chronicle losers...do as you like"


Motoko Kusanagi 13 Mar 23:54
"I eagerly awaiting new "impossible to lose 9 in row" method.
That will work for sure. Not like 8 in row scheme as that obviously just fruitcake plan."

:^0

"fruitcake plan"

Quality! I'm still laughing here.

It's not right to laugh at another man's misery ... Martin654 made me do it.

On a serious note, chasing losses is a bad bad strategy.

i hate it when people come on here and bang on about there system and it cannot lose etc, then as soon as they lose they fk off without a comment.... no dignity imo.

I have to say its still as funny as it was yesterday...... so i make sure that it stays well on top..... :) Ha ha ha ha.....

Any coward can fight a battle when he's sure of winning; but give me the man who has the pluck to fight when he's sure of losing.

kenniky 14 Feb 14:21
Dear fab...if Barcellona plays against Luton 80 times probably wins 80 times...i agree...you can select what you wager..and predict a result for under/over...if you do your homework well can t lose 8 tme in a row..if this happens you are a loser and it s better you go to play darts


Don't laugh there could be a nice little earner here for all of us , find out who he is and back him for the 2010 world darts championship , after all the geezer has been practising for 12 months non stop.

Like this one? :^0

Ker-bump!

Ker-bump!

Would you agree that the true chance of heads or tails is 50/50 or 50%?

Now take a coin and do a sequence of tosses. Eventually you will get 8 heads (or tails) in a row indeed if your sample size is big enough you will get 100 heads in a row.

To say it's impossible to lose 8 times in a row is incorrect and very naive. You may get away with it for a while, but you will lose. Guaranteed.

you are gambler, I have tried similar methods and it always crushed in late phase, value betting is what can give you profit, try services like betessence.com and asiancapper.com or other to give you good info and then just trade on BF or make high value bets

There's a similar system using Alan Keytes tips on here and that is successful!

I'd definitely recommend that you invest in essence. Using parts greater than the sum of the whole and match fixers and journalists as well as igaming you can extract all the requiring essence to make profits.

too risky , easier systems unless u have a endless pot of cash if u do stop betting it

There's a similar system using Alan Keytes tips on here and that is successful!

WRONG.

Explain please Zola...

The Naps table shows AK's tips are consistantly undervalued. It is value that is driving that thread, not martingale/fibbonacci staking.

The AK thread is also working because I (& TM) stick at it. Most of you guys give up after a couple of weeks.

CLASSIC! :D

your all just chronicle losers....apparently or so kennicky says

PMSL :^0

;)

one of the best threads ever :)

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A classic :D

Great systems come and go, but this is one of the greatest..

well saved , great thread :)

lol, a classic indeed :D

luckylucas. 12 Feb 21:26
SYSTEM WORKING WELL!



....SEND MORE MONEY ;)



Had an old mate who used to say that. Hope you're well, mate.

Great fishing thread this. Over 325 replies already !! :^O

Whatever happened to green willow :(

Hello, I'm starting a challenge €10 - €10,000 using kenniky's system.

I'm Bill Gates and I endorse this thread.

aww bugger logged in with wrong account

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kenniky 27 Feb 22:42

i know that winners are not well accepted in this society but i don t care......you are chronicle losers and you like to be chronicle losers...do as you like

I agree with most of what is said on this thread about chasing losses with increasing stakes being a path to ruin

BUT

I also think it's wrong to completely throw away this kind of idea until all the staking/selection variations have been tried.

If you had a system which you operated at level stakes and had results for that system over a long period of time and those
results showed that your longest losing run (in terms of whether you showed a profit/loss on the day) was 6.

Then I think it would be reasonable to try to force a profit out of the system by gradually increasing your daily level stakes during a losing run until the cumulative profit/loss over the period under scrutiny showed a profit, at whic point you would revert to your 'normal' level stake per day.

Just back from vegas, and an indian guy did a KENNIKY. He chased red 9 fkn times in a row and dumped thousands. C.10k. When he was broke his brother followed suit trying to get his money back. They even asked the crowd around the table to stop playing whilst the bro got more money. The crowd obviously obliged...........and red came up 6 more times. The poor bstrds were in an awful state, all that money for an initial $25 stake. My mates and i just couldn't believe what we were seeing.
People were flocking around the table like seagulls all reckoning it had to be black next. Christ almighty why do people do these things? The guy was getting sound advice from people who have all done a KENNIKY or two. But NO, he wouldn't listen. Just like kenniky, he wishes he doesn't know now what he didn't know then.

swift-tuttle

Along the lines of.........???

Performance Statistics (SP)

Period	Total	Highest	Average	Lowest
Day	223	27.20	0.50	-16.65
Week	34	39.51	3.29	-35.92
Month	8	47.54	13.98	-6.52
Year	1	111.83	111.83	111.83

Yes although I think more than 1 year's results should be used to get the confidence factor. The idea would be to gradually increase your level stakes for 1 day following a losing run of 2 days e.g.
Then assess again after that day, if your system is back into profit calculating from the time you increased your level stakes, revert to normal level stakes or conversely consider another gradual increase.

ttt for Schalke

*cough*

it is not impossible to lose 8 bets in a row, it is a mere calculation to address the risk

the chance of 8 consecutive losers at say

1.9 bsp implied chance is (1-(1/1.9))^8=0.002516

which in layman's terms means 1 in 397 attempts using this system at average of 1.9 bsp will
result in 8 cons; losers and failure.

To claim any system is risk free is wrong also the
calculation here is based on the bsp implied chance being the actual chance, of course on betfair
it will be close but not in a bookmakers and perhaps a nearer actual chance will bring the figure down to 1 in 300 system failure and bankruptcy .

Indeed a classic.

does this work or is it fishing?

If we're going to gravedig, at least let me point out this idiotic statement, in all its idiocy:

There's no difference between an even money chance at roulette than an even money chance in any other market.

i have a coffe mug with "chronicle loser" on it. a good life lesson to be reminded of :)

May 18, 2012 -- 7:47PM, bob.vegas wrote:

does this work or is it fishing?

the guy posted all his results on the thread

surely one of the greatest threads ever to grace the betfair forum imo

Epic thread this

just another variation of the Martin ,and possible attention seeking or just in complete denial  . These are the systems i used to devise sitting at the back of class as a 14 year old convinced  these systems had legs .

He would have got a (maybe) better run for his money laying  certain 1000/1 shots assuming he only used 25% of your bank at any one time.

I was surprised that Pinnacle once wrote one of their articles on the possibilities of profiting from a Fibonacci based approach, given that they're normally very educational. I'd have expected them to stay well clear of such a topic.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/what-is-the-fibonacci-betting-system

They were pretty damning of it though.

i am really surprised how people don't understand when he  says a even money at sport is not the same as at roulette,ofocurse the odds are always the same at roulette, but if he has studied the football match he is betting in more depth than the odds marker at given bookie, then he is saying there  odds are generous in given game, which means they are actually not evens in his eyes so although both are evens marked up, the bookie has  got it wrong so he believes if he can find the right games, his staking plan makes him a winner long term.only time will tell if hes right, as he will only be wrong if he studies it wrong or gets the most unusual bad luck of  games being wrong to form on day.

If you play a progressive staking plan (aka Martingale) even if you have an edge you will eventually go bust. Thats how bad a system it is!

The OP describes a staking plan.

All staking plans have precisely zero effect on your chances of wining over all timescales.

And before someone disputes this, note the use of the word 'chances'.