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MissingRibOfPrince 30 Mar 20:43
IF you continue and IF your losses increase you should let us all know what your tendencies are to do in running and maybe we might have some ideas that might be worthwhile to you?. I still think you should be laying as a starting point, you will lose more markets but i don't think you'd be as far behind. MROP, good idea, but lets see how it goes on. with your proposal to start with a lay instead a back, I have a problem, because I dont see the exit for me. I will try to think about it and try to find an exit startegy. I personally like to have an entry and exit startegy. thanks and best of luck |
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I backed
Gonzalez 1.70 |
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You can still have exit strategies if you lay, you could cut losses if the price drops to a certain level if you wanted and go all red?
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You are either overstaking or have no concept of the true price if you need to add to a bank (banks) of that size
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MissingRibOfPrince 30 Mar 22:51
You can still have exit strategies if you lay, you could cut losses if the price drops to a certain level if you wanted and go all red? you are saying "exit startegies" , there is my problem, I need one and not many. as I said, right now I dont see an exit strategy for a prematch lay. it is not so easy to find one. cheers |
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buzzer 30 Mar 23:20
You are either overstaking or have no concept of the true price if you need to add to a bank (banks) of that size buzzer, your statement doesnt make sense , why would I need to know the true price? it looks to me that you didnt read the thread or at least the introduction. and as I mentioned before, I am down 1/3 of the bank, why should I panic now? this would be a mistake imho, to revise the startegy after every loss. I hope you understand my point. cheers |
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Surely you want to obtain the best possible price you can on your selections? Do you just back favs aimlessly? I read your opening post and it just stated the odds range you'll be backing in, a few ticks will make a big difference to your bottom line and it'll help your exit strategies. I'm off now good luck with your bets
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I backed
Verdasco 1.28 |
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horselover777.
Out of interest I wen't back through your thread and pulled the following list of losing bets. Groth 1.41 (493) Dubois 1.58 (840) Dokic 1.27 (960) Suarez Navarro 1.43 (906) Errani 1.38 (852) Zheng 1.39 (644) Simon 1.34 (930) Lapenti 1.37 (912) Kohlschreiber 1.40 (1038) Soderling 1.34 (1050) Nalbandian 1.27(600) Robredo 1.35 (600) Petrova 1.39 (600) Total loss for those bets is 10,425. When you are backing 1.25-1.4 shots you need a proportionally low rate of losers, note also this list doesn't include many others of your short priced shots that you were forced to trade out of in-play. So IMHO you have the basis of a winning system, but I'd suggest perhaps you consider laying the short priced selections and backing those with a higher potential for return. Someone once told me that if you aren't getting at least 3-4 parts for every 5 you are staking the poorhouse awaits. Good luck ;-). |
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I backed
Na Li 1.38 |
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Gonzalez = loser :(
Verdasco = scratch trade Na Li = scratch trade |
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Tennis: -USD904.64 Total P&L: -USD904.64
Tennis Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($) Tennis / Makarova v Li : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 03:30 31-Mar-09 06:56 20.58 Tennis / F Lopez v Verdasco : Match Odds 30-Mar-09 23:30 31-Mar-09 06:14 0.21 Tennis / Gonzalez v Stepanek : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 02:00 31-Mar-09 04:44 -858.00 Tennis / Ferrer v Cilic : Match Odds 30-Mar-09 21:00 31-Mar-09 00:55 25.20 Tennis / Benesova v Medina Garrigues : Match Odds 30-Mar-09 22:15 31-Mar-09 00:11 453.61 Tennis / Mauresmo v Stosur : Match Odds 30-Mar-09 20:30 30-Mar-09 22:13 -816.00 Tennis / Wozniacki v Dementieva : Match Odds 30-Mar-09 18:00 30-Mar-09 20:04 22.84 Tennis / Kuznetsova v Kleybanova : Match Odds 30-Mar-09 18:00 30-Mar-09 19:21 246.92 Tennis: -USD5,263.30 Total P&L: -USD5,263.30 |
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buzzer 30 Mar 23:38
Surely you want to obtain the best possible price you can on your selections? Do you just back favs aimlessly? I read your opening post and it just stated the odds range you'll be backing in, a few ticks will make a big difference to your bottom line and it'll help your exit strategies. I'm off now good luck with your bets yes I want to obtain the best price, but I am sure it is almost impossible to get the best price. prices are moving. in general I try to back within 1 hour of the match. so I will take what I get. thanks and best of luck |
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nathanrh,
first of all thanks for taking the time to try to get deeper in my strategy and trying to help. with laying the short priced selections, I have a problem. I mentioned this before in an earlier posting. I dont see the exit strategy for the short price lays. your idea with backing only the high priced selections is imho spot on. I thought about it all the time. I thought to back only 1.49 to 1.95 because the winning bets will bring more money in and the losers will cost me less. I need to think about this in more depth and try it in real, because no backtesting possible. I will need to take the time and go through the 1.49 = backed selections and see how the outcome would have been. just for info, till today I had 161 backed selections. with many bad beats and 3 retirements and commission paid. thanks again for pointing this out, it always helps when people from outside like spectators are watching. they see more than the one inwolved. cheers |
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I backed
Tsonga 1.54 Wozniacki 1.91 |
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Tsonga = scratch trade
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I backed
Verdasco 1.51 |
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Wozniacki = scratch trade
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I backed
Roddick 1.43 |
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I backed
Del Potro 1.70 |
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Verdasco = winner
Roddick = winner I greened out at 1.04 didnt want to see anthoer Monfils/Safin match :) |
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Del Potro = winner
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Tennis: USD954.22 Total P&L: USD954.22
Tennis Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($) Tennis / Ferrer v Del Potro : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 22:15 01-Apr-09 01:01 401.94 Tennis / Roddick v Monfils : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 21:15 01-Apr-09 00:59 215.32 Tennis / Stepanek v Verdasco : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 21:00 31-Mar-09 23:17 292.84 Tennis / Kuznetsova v Wozniacki : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 20:00 31-Mar-09 23:06 20.81 Tennis / Simon v Tsonga : Match Odds 31-Mar-09 18:00 31-Mar-09 20:24 23.31 Tennis: -USD4,309.08 Total P&L: -USD4,309.08 |
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a good day, well done
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dlarssonf 01 Apr 13:30
a good day, well done thanks :) |
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I backed
S.Williams 1.22 |
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S.Williams = winner closed at 1.02
I backed Djokovic 1.75 |
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Djokovic = scratch trade
was afraid that Djoko will not have the power to finish the match. |
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I backed
Federer 1.27 |
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Federer = scratch trade in 3rd set
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You could've traded out at 1.02 Early in the second set for big all round green :(
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freestyle 02 Apr 05:41
You could've traded out at 1.02 Early in the second set for big all round green you are 100% right, but at this point I was still convinced that Djoko will win this without a problem. :( the problemas I see it, to discuss it after the match is ok and healthy for future learning, but it is aftertiming. after the match we are all much smarter. cheers |
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Tennis: USD176.63 Total P&L: USD176.63
Tennis Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($) Tennis / Roddick v Federer : Match Odds 02-Apr-09 04:00 02-Apr-09 06:14 0.00 Tennis / Tsonga v Djokovic : Match Odds 01-Apr-09 22:00 02-Apr-09 00:35 64.05 Tennis / S Williams v Li : Match Odds 01-Apr-09 20:00 01-Apr-09 22:20 112.58 Tennis: -USD4,132.45 Total P&L: -USD4,132.45 |
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Another day of profit, well done.
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I was actually on about Federer. You backed him at 1.27, 6-4 1-1 Fed was love 40 up, he blew all 3 break points but at that time was 1.02 :(
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MissingRibOfPrince 02 Apr 09:14
Another day of profit, well done. thanks :) |
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freestyle 02 Apr 11:31
I was actually on about Federer. You backed him at 1.27, 6-4 1-1 Fed was love 40 up, he blew all 3 break points but at that time was 1.02 yes, I didnt see a reason to green out. then he was 40-0 up and was broken, as I remember right. after the break I was looking for the scratch trade. if Federer cant finish this match in 2 sets, I will not gamble in the 3rd against Roddick. but every one has its own view and thats ok. |
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scratch scratch scratch you don't know my method
after-timing can't get on unless its an hour before the match thank you :) There we go I've made a list of responses for you so you can c+p as appropriate. |
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CurlyBlues 02 Apr 13:52
scratch scratch scratch you don't know my method after-timing can't get on unless its an hour before the match thank you There we go I've made a list of responses for you so you can c+p as appropriate. it looks that you forgot to take your pills today. if you dont like it, you are old enough to scratch the thread :) and visit all the other threads. |
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I backed
Azarenka 1.56 |