General Betting
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i would appreciate any advice here...
i am currently doing a laying system.....
the horses i lay are generally between odds on and no higher than 5/1..... the strike rate is quite consistent but i hit a winner every 8 races or so and some of these are very short odds....
i am keen on using a staking plan to get profit on every race by either doubling up on the next race after a winner or choosing horses at a specific price to regain losses plus a profit i aim for on every race...
i keep a history of all results and could probably highlight certain types of races, track etc where i have a much better strike rate and could wait for that type of a race to regain losses....
hope this make sense, any advice would be greatly appreciated.....
i am currently doing a laying system.....
the horses i lay are generally between odds on and no higher than 5/1..... the strike rate is quite consistent but i hit a winner every 8 races or so and some of these are very short odds....
i am keen on using a staking plan to get profit on every race by either doubling up on the next race after a winner or choosing horses at a specific price to regain losses plus a profit i aim for on every race...
i keep a history of all results and could probably highlight certain types of races, track etc where i have a much better strike rate and could wait for that type of a race to regain losses....
hope this make sense, any advice would be greatly appreciated.....
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'i keep a history of all results and could probably highlight certain types of races, track etc where i have a much better strike rate and could wait for that type of a race to regain losses....'
part answered your own question?
part answered your own question?
possibly john, but i could wait a long time to hit the criteria and may be chasing a lot on one race
patented
you don't need to "recover" straight away
let me see
on average you can get around 7 losers (say with 5% comm) 6.65pts profit
1 winner say around 5/2 ( call it 3pts loser after price hike )
each bet risks an average of 3 pts ...so profit is 15.21%
I'd initially try to
1) increase strike rate
2) increase staking ( by % of increased strike rate in 1)
you don't need to "recover" straight away
let me see
on average you can get around 7 losers (say with 5% comm) 6.65pts profit
1 winner say around 5/2 ( call it 3pts loser after price hike )
each bet risks an average of 3 pts ...so profit is 15.21%
I'd initially try to
1) increase strike rate
2) increase staking ( by % of increased strike rate in 1)
The bit about regaining losses and making a profit on every race will be your downfall.
Long Term Profit is all that matters , if you lays are losing more often than the odds say they should overall , then why care about the races where you lose? , why try to win all the losses back from one race on the next one?
Long Term Profit is all that matters , if you lays are losing more often than the odds say they should overall , then why care about the races where you lose? , why try to win all the losses back from one race on the next one?
YOU WILL GO SKINT LAYING ONE HORSE PER RACE, HOPE THIS HELPS
age21, you will lose laying 2,3 or 4 horses in one race. Hope that helps you.
depends if you're laying them at value prices , as with anything else :)
Age 21, I have reported you to the Police for starting on here at age 12. You are supposed to be 18 to bet.
age 21
YOU WILL GO SKINT LAYING ONE HORSE PER RACE, HOPE THIS HELPS
kenilworth
age21, you will lose laying 2,3 or 4 horses in one race. Hope that helps you.
Both statements are false
If those statements were true every one who lays one or less than 5 horses per
race would be a loser. What a load of tosh!
YOU WILL GO SKINT LAYING ONE HORSE PER RACE, HOPE THIS HELPS
kenilworth
age21, you will lose laying 2,3 or 4 horses in one race. Hope that helps you.
Both statements are false
If those statements were true every one who lays one or less than 5 horses per
race would be a loser. What a load of tosh!
If your calculated winning chance for each runner in a race is less than the
price suggests it chance of winning are, you can lay as many in a race as qualify
and make a profit. (long term)
I you do not make a profit your calculations on the winning chance of each
runner are inaccurate. You will need to refine how you calculate each runners
winning chance.
price suggests it chance of winning are, you can lay as many in a race as qualify
and make a profit. (long term)
I you do not make a profit your calculations on the winning chance of each
runner are inaccurate. You will need to refine how you calculate each runners
winning chance.
Compound, most people know all that. My point was that if the particular poster was losing by laying one horse, then he wouldn't do any better laying 2, 3, 4 or perhaps more.
About recovering losses -
I set a target profit every day (2% of the bank). If I have a losing day, the next day's target is still 2%, plus the square root of any outstanding losses, so the losses are recovered after a few days.
Obviously you need to know that on most days you could make more than your target if you pushed for it, so that you havethe leeway to recover your losses when you need to.
Anyone else do something similar?
I set a target profit every day (2% of the bank). If I have a losing day, the next day's target is still 2%, plus the square root of any outstanding losses, so the losses are recovered after a few days.
Obviously you need to know that on most days you could make more than your target if you pushed for it, so that you havethe leeway to recover your losses when you need to.
Anyone else do something similar?
steve, do you find that you could be recovering losses for days on end?
Stevie Strikes
This thread is about laying.
I thought you only got involved with backing/dutching horses and dogs?
This thread is about laying.
I thought you only got involved with backing/dutching horses and dogs?
Occasionally, but of course your bank should be big enough to withstand such a temporary abberation and leave you feeling comfortable enough to keep betting without worrying.
Here's the warning: the times I've lost patience and thought "f@ck this, I want to get back on target now", I've usuually lost the lot. I did it a couple of weeks ago and I was gutted, hence my interest.
Best of luck to you.
Here's the warning: the times I've lost patience and thought "f@ck this, I want to get back on target now", I've usuually lost the lot. I did it a couple of weeks ago and I was gutted, hence my interest.
Best of luck to you.
top2,
I know, and I am, but staking came into the conversation.
I know, and I am, but staking came into the conversation.
stevie - lay 1% of your bank
cover your balance up with some black tape and check after 1 month - or 200/300 lays .
hope this helps
cover your balance up with some black tape and check after 1 month - or 200/300 lays .
hope this helps
If you are laying 5/1 and under and only laying 1 in 8 winners, don't jeopardise anything with some ridiculous loss recovery or other over-involved staking plan.
Level stakes, reassessing your bank montly and betting accordingly, would be more than sufficient.
If you have that sort of edge, bank management is your only problem to deal with (and inevitable losing runs).
Level stakes, reassessing your bank montly and betting accordingly, would be more than sufficient.
If you have that sort of edge, bank management is your only problem to deal with (and inevitable losing runs).
over 2 weeks my bank was up 20% - i got caught in the mentality that it would keep growing at this rate , so when i lost 10% of that in the third week my initial reaction was to get it back ................................you know the rest
Thats why the covering of the balance will help many on here , you need to take the buzz out of it and treat it as an investment
Thats why the covering of the balance will help many on here , you need to take the buzz out of it and treat it as an investment
Glasgow Brian, because your opinion differs from someone else, doesn't make that person an idiot. In fact it suggests that you are the silly one.
some good advice..... im trying to work out %'s to potentially do the kelly system....... i can look at tracks, race types, previous placings etc and a number of these criteria have never had a winner....i could give them a higher percentage chance of losing rather than certain race types etc that produced numerous winners...... im using excel at the moment to dissect all the previous results since i began paper trading this system
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