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no problem.
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Stevie, question for you. Have you actually tried to find out why this system worked so amazingly in 2009? It's all very well coming up with an idea and then back fitting it. Did it work in 2008 or 2007? More importantly, how has it done for the first three months of 2010? Is there a reason why it should continue? etc etc etc.
I may well find that I could make a big profit by backing horses with a y in their name that ran over 2 miles plus last year, doesn't mean I should get excited ;) |
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true chop, that would take a longgggg time to go work out for 2008 etc, ill start working out 2010 now however the results of 2009 were that good i doubt that it can be that wrong....
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how big a sample do you feel i need to prove that this works?
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just worked out jan, was profitable also ;) :D
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How big a sample would you need?
Well, you'd have to give me more info than that. How many selections per month do you use? Average price? Strike rate? etc etc. |
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I also can't see the relevance of a horse being a favourite - surely what matters is the price as opposed to it's chances of winning / not winning?
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well i aint going to give you much details cause it would give away my system mate lol
all i can say is it involves laying favs as thats what i checked the results back through doing in certain types of races |
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selections per month? varies on depending how many races meet the criteria
so far though i worked out it only had 1 losing month between jan 09 and jan 10 which was march 09 |
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How can you possibly know whether it was profitable in 2009 or not by looking at the s.p's in the racing post.You won't be laying at that price.You'll be laying at Betfair prices.If that doesn't beat you then commission may.
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stokergoinup
this i what i asked yesterday.. how often do bfair favs differ from the ones in racing post? and how often are the odds that different? |
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afternoon stevie
u off for easter? |
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There's a massive difference,especially on the gaff tracks.Timeform.com/free has all the info you need.A history of betfair sps is available for every horse.
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stokergoinup ill start going through timeform later then mate :)
not yet freddie not yet |
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Stevie, I'm not asking you to give away your system, but if you don't explain a bit more then it's impossible to say whatsoever if there is anything in it!
You keep saying there was only one losing month during 13- well, just for example if you laid all 20-1 shots at Ayr it's perfectly possible to achieve this just by luck alone! I have an A level in maths and play poker regularly, so am reasonably well experienced in odds, probability, sequences, etc. The questions I asked were simply designed to see if your system could be explained by chance. If you don't want to say any more, fair enough, but it is impossible to say whether or not you have anything then. I am honestly trying to help you! (If you'd rather say it on email, that's fine, I'll give you one of mine) Good luck anyway. |
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chop, it may well be by chance mate, im not sure but the results on the racing post are there which i have used...
i worked it out @ level stakes say to make 10 quid a time then worked out for the losses how much i would of lost trying to make that 10 quid etc so it cant be that far away... the fav odds on betfair cant be that far out from the ones on the racing post website surely? just looking back and all the fav lays tend to be below 6.0, quite alot of them are far lower than that too such as 2.0, 3.5s etc etc strike rate would take me awhile to go back and work out all them |
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ttt chop anymore opinions?
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"just looking back and all the fav lays tend to be below 6.0"
How far below is the key. Hence I asked for the average price and total done each month. Also, don't forget that a 4/1 or 5/1 chance with a bookie would be at least 9/2 and 11/2 here, or quite possibly higher, if it is weak in the betting. Not forgetting commission of course. If you are calculating your chances of success based on laying bookies SP prices you will inevitably get a false picture. And finally, I again go back to the point that whether the horse you are laying is favourite or not really isn't relevant to any system. If you are laying a horse which should be 5/1 at 4/1, you will make a profit long term. If the horse should be 7/2, you won't. Whether it is favourite, joint favourite or rank outsider honestly makes no difference whatsover (other than in a theoretical minute number of cases if it gets "stopped" solely because it is favourite - but for the basis of simplicity we have to assume that it wouldn't happen). |
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If you've created your own database it would really be worth adding in the Betfair SP: historical data's available from here:
http://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/ Then recalculate using Betfair SP (not forgetting to take off 5% from winnings to account for commission!) |