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stevies5_mufc
28 Mar 10 12:20
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Date Joined: 27 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 17,764 | Blogger: stevies5_mufc's blog
ok posted this on horse racing forum but not many replys
anyone here use it? whats your opinions on it?

i want to know if you want to say lay a fav in certain race, can you set it up to avoid the race if there is joint favs??
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Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 3:49 PM BST
not going to figure it out. not really interested. ive got several of my own that work well. one that works very well
u havent checked results. u typed earlier on uve back tracked it for a year and u dont know what the lays where last week?????????????????
did ure system pick 1 last week 2,4,8,13,20 lays
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 3:50 PM BST
this game is all about experience
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 3:51 PM BST
i checked back last year.. eg 2009 mate not 2010 ;)
so therefore aint checked all 2010 yet so i dont know what it done last week, spent most my time last week working out last years
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 3:53 PM BST
ok...i would always start yesterday and work backwards
Report ninja22 March 28, 2010 3:54 PM BST
use the geek software, its better and free
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 3:54 PM BST
what u studing at university?
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 3:54 PM BST
not the way i work, start at jan 1st, finish on 31st december

if betbot pro cant do what i need do is there another way i can have something automatically do these bets?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 3:59 PM BST
how long did it take u to work out lays for 2009
must have taken weeks
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 4:01 PM BST
it took a long time mate but probably prove worth it

right here is what i need it to do
i can pick the lays in the morning before, however should there be joint or co favs i need it to avoid that race, and it needs to be able to place the bets around 20 seconds before the off...

can betbot pro do this or what can?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:02 PM BST
fav on course or fav on here
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 4:04 PM BST
what does rp work by?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:06 PM BST
im out mate . good luck
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 4:06 PM BST
i didnt offer it to you in the first place so how can you be out? :p
i simply want to know if betbot pro can do this
Report cabbage March 28, 2010 4:41 PM BST
"if ud backed every fav last year ud be in clover"

And you are a so called expert on system? LMAO
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:42 PM BST
back again



i meant im going out



dont think u can link betbot to rp odds
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 4:51 PM BST
dont want to link it to rp odds, i want to make sure i can avoid the joint / co fav races !
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:53 PM BST
ure system is going by rp odds
rp odds are very different from odds on here
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 4:53 PM BST
how different? normally fav on here is fav in rp... ;)
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:56 PM BST
not always
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 4:56 PM BST
explain to me where racing post get their favs from then?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:59 PM BST
u really are a novice


on course show
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 4:59 PM BST
take a year out of uni and run it ureself
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:00 PM BST
freddiewilliams 28 Mar 16:59


u really are a novice


well noticed ;)

on course? how often is betfair different from on course?
come on if systems is what you do you should know this sorta thing
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:03 PM BST
i havent time to type it all out for u now?


i have to get the wages
Report ROB_D March 28, 2010 5:03 PM BST
post offices r shut on a sunday
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:05 PM BST
freddiewilliams 28 Mar 16:42


back again



i meant im going out



how much bull do you talk? LOL
if you were "going out" then how did you plan to get the wages ;)

go on explain, if your "full time" and work in systems you should know this sorta thing tbh
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:13 PM BST
no need for that mate


when i went out earlier on it was to my local bookies to place a bet



odds on course are different from odds on here
bookies on course have to make a book. they might be betting to 120% or 130%
all the shows on here are about 100%
odds are far better on here most of the time
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:14 PM BST
still the favourite is most likely going to be the fav on here ;)
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:16 PM BST
yes most times but not always
seen horses on rp 4/1

6/1,7/1,8/1 on here
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:17 PM BST
but is it still the fav?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:19 PM BST
horse could be 4/1 fav rp


could be 7/1 3rd fav on here
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:20 PM BST
doubt it be that much of a difference tbh
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:22 PM BST
ill dig out examples if u want but will take a while
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:23 PM BST
yes please
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:27 PM BST
when do u want bot to place lay? how long before race starts
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:31 PM BST
10 seconds before the off it would be, that way you can be certain that the fav then is almost certain to be the fav at the off unless something else within a certain range of odds to it
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:34 PM BST
take for example 3.00 doncaster today
fav on course at 2.59 and 50 seconds was not fav at offtime
and was not fav on here
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:34 PM BST
race went of nearly 4 minutes late
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:37 PM BST
how did you find that out?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:38 PM BST
i didnt find it out i remember seeing it
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:39 PM BST
lol so i have to take your word for it? interesting, you said you would find me examples...

you remember that to the exact 10 seconds? lol impressive
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:40 PM BST
yes i remember it cause the markets moves where al over the place
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:42 PM BST
and why would i make it up???


mate if u dont want my opinion just tell me to fluck off
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:46 PM BST
i just thought you would find me examples not off your head lol

what i need to know is

- if there is a way betbot pro will avoid joint favs say 10 seconds before the off
- if not what other software can i use to do this that will be able to avoid them or how could i make sure the fav on betfair is fav on course etc without having to do this myself
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:48 PM BST
i wouldnt trust bots with my hardearned
heard a few bad reports
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:50 PM BST
i dont mind if you trust them or not...
i just need to know if there is 1 that can do the following, thats all i need to know,
but all the so called "full time" or "professionals" dont seem to know
Report Rocket to the FACE March 28, 2010 5:51 PM BST
I don't use it so I'm not sure but it would be a better idea to put your system in place manually with small stakes for a while to iron out any problems before you let a bot lose.
Report Rocket to the FACE March 28, 2010 5:51 PM BST
loose* ??
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 5:54 PM BST
yes rocket i know, im going to do it manually on weekends and evenings but i cant do it during the day! lol
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 5:57 PM BST
ure research for layin favs in 2009
ure bound to have had losing days
and losing weeks
what was the strike rate?
was it profitable every month?
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:01 PM BST
what was the strike rate? good
was it profitable every month? 11/12 months the loss was off around 200, months made 1000's ;)

but what has this to do with the question im asking about betbot pro or trading software to do what i want it to do ffs
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:03 PM BST
ill say again


from what i know


i dont think it can...


but somebody might say otherwise
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:04 PM BST
thats all i needed to know, thanks
Report cabbage March 28, 2010 6:20 PM BST
Hi Steve

Yes there are systems out there which can use "disparity" bewteen 1st and 2nd ( joint or any position) in the betting rank to use as a setting for your betting.

And NO I'm not goign to tell you what they are.
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:23 PM BST
adrian massey is where u picked up ure system stevie?
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:24 PM BST
freddie no i worked this out myself... lol

cabbage i aint going to ask you that
all i want to know is if betbot pro will allow me to avoid races with joint favs say 10 seconds before the off
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:26 PM BST
i believe u .....thousands wouldnt!



u at school,college, uni??
what u studying
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:27 PM BST
school mate, A levels

convinced this system works, if it comes down to it ill just do it by myself, problem is that misses out some races, could there be a difference in results between weekends and evenings compared to just days hmm
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:29 PM BST
oh i.......uve definatley been spending too much time on adrian massey



remember mate....this time next year ull be a millionaire
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:31 PM BST
u trying to tell me u went on rp andlooked through all results for 2009?
how long did it take u?
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:32 PM BST
freddiewilliams 28 Mar 18:29


oh i.......uve definatley been spending too much time on adrian massey


LOL adrian massey when i worked this out myself? yes ok then if you believe that
i WONT be telling you what my system is end off
just want to know if bet bot pro allows me to avoid joint fav races but i still aint got a 100% answer LOL
Report ROB_D March 28, 2010 6:35 PM BST
freddie i actually know what he does and it works very welll
and yes he did go through weeek by weeek and its all in excell
cud i use it ? no for same reason
have i beeen laying some yes and he has beeen agreeein on them with me
have i put them on my p&l no i dont giv nyone a clue
ive layed 6 now in a weeek all winnenrs inbcluding one today
hope this helps
yes there has beeen losers but i havent layd them
cheers
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:36 PM BST
ive worked yours ...sorry adrians system out


:)
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:37 PM BST
you worked my system out when you dont know ANY of the selections?
good luck then you use that system and let me know if it profitable ;)
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:38 PM BST
rob what u on about?
Report ROB_D March 28, 2010 6:38 PM BST
btw i thought u had to make sum wages u havent moved from this thread
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:39 PM BST
how much u made today freddie? ;)
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:40 PM BST
i dont use that system stevie

it makes money but my other systems make more and are not as volatile
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:41 PM BST
got the wages a while ago. last bet was in the 5.15
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:42 PM BST
freddiewilliams 28 Mar 18:40


i dont use that system stevie

it makes money but my other systems make more and are not as volatile


please explain this to me? you dont use what system?? i havent told you any selections of my system or how to pick them so how do you know what the system i use is??? i worked this out myself.. what is the adrian massey system please tell me then if thats what i use?
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:43 PM BST
layin favs that arent joint
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:45 PM BST
stevie before i log off for the day........have u done ure homework for tomorrow?
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:45 PM BST
you think thats my system? LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

awesome ive never heard anything like that before... i did say a long time ago that there is other criteria to it that i can work out myself... i just need to avoid joint favs ahwell
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:46 PM BST
freddie getting annoyed cause i wont tell u what it is? ;)
Report freddiewilliams March 28, 2010 6:47 PM BST
:) night mate


see u back here next saturday
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 6:51 PM BST
cya lad
Report the eton rifles March 28, 2010 7:06 PM BST
try this


http://www.betbotpro.com/video/BBP4_100310web/BBP4_100310web.html


i think thats what you want remeber me when your rich
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 7:10 PM BST
eton rifles already looked at this

but does this allow me to avoid races should there be joint favs say 10 seconds before the off?
Report the eton rifles March 28, 2010 7:12 PM BST
not sure but i think he explains that point in the video
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 7:13 PM BST
hope so, watching now, cheers
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 7:20 PM BST
extra scenario feature maybe useful for it, thanks mate hopefully
Report the eton rifles March 28, 2010 7:21 PM BST
no problem.
Report chop180 March 28, 2010 9:50 PM BST
Stevie, question for you. Have you actually tried to find out why this system worked so amazingly in 2009? It's all very well coming up with an idea and then back fitting it. Did it work in 2008 or 2007? More importantly, how has it done for the first three months of 2010? Is there a reason why it should continue? etc etc etc.

I may well find that I could make a big profit by backing horses with a y in their name that ran over 2 miles plus last year, doesn't mean I should get excited ;)
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 10:09 PM BST
true chop, that would take a longgggg time to go work out for 2008 etc, ill start working out 2010 now however the results of 2009 were that good i doubt that it can be that wrong....
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 10:10 PM BST
how big a sample do you feel i need to prove that this works?
Report stevies5_mufc March 28, 2010 10:41 PM BST
just worked out jan, was profitable also ;) :D
Report chop180 March 29, 2010 12:25 AM BST
How big a sample would you need?

Well, you'd have to give me more info than that. How many selections per month do you use? Average price? Strike rate? etc etc.
Report chop180 March 29, 2010 12:31 AM BST
I also can't see the relevance of a horse being a favourite - surely what matters is the price as opposed to it's chances of winning / not winning?
Report stevies5_mufc March 29, 2010 4:10 PM BST
well i aint going to give you much details cause it would give away my system mate lol
all i can say is it involves laying favs as thats what i checked the results back through doing in certain types of races
Report stevies5_mufc March 29, 2010 4:11 PM BST
selections per month? varies on depending how many races meet the criteria

so far though i worked out it only had 1 losing month between jan 09 and jan 10 which was march 09
Report stokergoinup March 29, 2010 4:34 PM BST
How can you possibly know whether it was profitable in 2009 or not by looking at the s.p's in the racing post.You won't be laying at that price.You'll be laying at Betfair prices.If that doesn't beat you then commission may.
Report stevies5_mufc March 29, 2010 4:35 PM BST
stokergoinup
this i what i asked yesterday..
how often do bfair favs differ from the ones in racing post? and how often are the odds that different?
Report freddiewilliams March 29, 2010 4:38 PM BST
afternoon stevie

u off for easter?
Report stokergoinup March 29, 2010 4:39 PM BST
There's a massive difference,especially on the gaff tracks.Timeform.com/free has all the info you need.A history of betfair sps is available for every horse.
Report stevies5_mufc March 29, 2010 4:40 PM BST
stokergoinup ill start going through timeform later then mate :)

not yet freddie not yet
Report chop180 March 29, 2010 8:45 PM BST
Stevie, I'm not asking you to give away your system, but if you don't explain a bit more then it's impossible to say whatsoever if there is anything in it!

You keep saying there was only one losing month during 13- well, just for example if you laid all 20-1 shots at Ayr it's perfectly possible to achieve this just by luck alone!

I have an A level in maths and play poker regularly, so am reasonably well experienced in odds, probability, sequences, etc. The questions I asked were simply designed to see if your system could be explained by chance.

If you don't want to say any more, fair enough, but it is impossible to say whether or not you have anything then. I am honestly trying to help you! (If you'd rather say it on email, that's fine, I'll give you one of mine)

Good luck anyway.
Report stevies5_mufc March 29, 2010 9:31 PM BST
chop, it may well be by chance mate, im not sure but the results on the racing post are there which i have used...

i worked it out @ level stakes say to make 10 quid a time then worked out for the losses how much i would of lost trying to make that 10 quid etc so it cant be that far away...
the fav odds on betfair cant be that far out from the ones on the racing post website surely?

just looking back and all the fav lays tend to be below 6.0, quite alot of them are far lower than that too such as 2.0, 3.5s etc etc
strike rate would take me awhile to go back and work out all them
Report stevies5_mufc March 30, 2010 4:14 PM BST
ttt chop anymore opinions?
Report chop180 March 31, 2010 12:22 AM BST
"just looking back and all the fav lays tend to be below 6.0"

How far below is the key. Hence I asked for the average price and total done each month. Also, don't forget that a 4/1 or 5/1 chance with a bookie would be at least 9/2 and 11/2 here, or quite possibly higher, if it is weak in the betting. Not forgetting commission of course.

If you are calculating your chances of success based on laying bookies SP prices you will inevitably get a false picture.

And finally, I again go back to the point that whether the horse you are laying is favourite or not really isn't relevant to any system. If you are laying a horse which should be 5/1 at 4/1, you will make a profit long term. If the horse should be 7/2, you won't. Whether it is favourite, joint favourite or rank outsider honestly makes no difference whatsover (other than in a theoretical minute number of cases if it gets "stopped" solely because it is favourite - but for the basis of simplicity we have to assume that it wouldn't happen).
Report wittering March 31, 2010 8:47 AM BST
If you've created your own database it would really be worth adding in the Betfair SP: historical data's available from here:
http://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/

Then recalculate using Betfair SP (not forgetting to take off 5% from winnings to account for commission!)
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