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You know, I had never heard of it when I started betting and a lot of my "systems" were based on that kind of betting .... the problem most people have with it is that they do the wrong kind of bets on it. I done hundreds and I mean hindreds of experiments with it and a lot of them do work. Yeah you do need a big bankroll but if you do lots and lots of paper experiments before using real money there are actually ways it pays ..... I would say most wil ldisagree with me, but I have tried and tested many of them in my own ways and have had a good bit of success with it. I won't give all my secrets away but here are a few examples of what I done.
1. I used to just stand and watch roulette table for ages and memorise sequenses, in all the times I watched I never hit a sequence of 12 red or black in the times I was doing this, so when a sequence hits 10 then you go in ... Casino's don't like doubling up so I would pretty much say avoid a roulette table, but this was just an example. The other example is to just keep doing the same bet once for every visit you pay to the casino.
2. Football Over/Under 2.5 goals .... this one took me months to do experiments on and hundreds of paperwork but I did make it pay, even ran a thread on Soccer forum for a while doing it ... Go and check out the sequences of all the teams in the leagues and write down all the sequences to every team in every league you want to do it on. I done it on all the english, scottish, german and spanish. Write back for their last 10 matches, and once you have a sequence of around 7 or 8 in a row thats when you go in with the money as they are due to hit the opposite .... only a few teams in the time I researched reached around 12 in a row but that would only be 4 chases so you would be fine if going in on match 9. Also depends on the fixtures as well, I was avoiding the likely scorelines ie, top club v bottom club, so as well as the sequence you have to sometimes avoid certain fixtures. Good fun, but lot of work keeping on track of all results.
3. Snooker ... very few players go the whole season without a win at decent odds, there are only 6 or 7 events throughout the season ands very rarely does a player lose all of them .... so this is where you use martingale to get those winning bets, and even if you do hit a loser a lot of your other bets will counteract those losses, tried and tested .... can go with 1st frames in matches every event, high breaks, handicaps .....
The worst martingale I ever done was chasing favs to win horses .... just absolutley pointless ! But again it was done on paper before money, so that was avoided ....
Anyone else ever tried any different methods? I love doing it but as you know, you need a good bankroll to do hundreds of bets at once ..... and money sitting there vif needed, oh and every account with the bookies and Betfair.
1. I used to just stand and watch roulette table for ages and memorise sequenses, in all the times I watched I never hit a sequence of 12 red or black in the times I was doing this, so when a sequence hits 10 then you go in ... Casino's don't like doubling up so I would pretty much say avoid a roulette table, but this was just an example. The other example is to just keep doing the same bet once for every visit you pay to the casino.
2. Football Over/Under 2.5 goals .... this one took me months to do experiments on and hundreds of paperwork but I did make it pay, even ran a thread on Soccer forum for a while doing it ... Go and check out the sequences of all the teams in the leagues and write down all the sequences to every team in every league you want to do it on. I done it on all the english, scottish, german and spanish. Write back for their last 10 matches, and once you have a sequence of around 7 or 8 in a row thats when you go in with the money as they are due to hit the opposite .... only a few teams in the time I researched reached around 12 in a row but that would only be 4 chases so you would be fine if going in on match 9. Also depends on the fixtures as well, I was avoiding the likely scorelines ie, top club v bottom club, so as well as the sequence you have to sometimes avoid certain fixtures. Good fun, but lot of work keeping on track of all results.
3. Snooker ... very few players go the whole season without a win at decent odds, there are only 6 or 7 events throughout the season ands very rarely does a player lose all of them .... so this is where you use martingale to get those winning bets, and even if you do hit a loser a lot of your other bets will counteract those losses, tried and tested .... can go with 1st frames in matches every event, high breaks, handicaps .....
The worst martingale I ever done was chasing favs to win horses .... just absolutley pointless ! But again it was done on paper before money, so that was avoided ....
Anyone else ever tried any different methods? I love doing it but as you know, you need a good bankroll to do hundreds of bets at once ..... and money sitting there vif needed, oh and every account with the bookies and Betfair.
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Lex,thanks for clearing that up.
If I had stuck with arbing, NOT gambling I would be a very wealthy man.
Drinking heavily late at night and American racing is a deadly cocktail.
Still ive savings and dont need to work,havnt worked for three years.
If I had stuck with arbing, NOT gambling I would be a very wealthy man.
Drinking heavily late at night and American racing is a deadly cocktail.
Still ive savings and dont need to work,havnt worked for three years.
Ive learnt three things with betfair.
Arbing wins.
Laying below industry SP wins.
Gambling looses.
Arbing wins.
Laying below industry SP wins.
Gambling looses.
bookies crying today I reckon - so far 15 favs ! out of 28 races. Only 8 left till Wolvers. funny old game; full of ups and downs...
6 favs at lingfield ? not very likely (stats say) 
but its been a weird day!
but its been a weird day!
Horses stats are seldom wrong ! Buster Brown loses. Lex wins!
today is not the day for dipping your toe in. Its very tricky today.
the percentages would be corected thats why i went in
I won last evening but worrying the bet size soon gets well out of hand.
Started on minimal bets then in no time laying £300
Perhaps im doing something wrong
I can list my bets
Started on minimal bets then in no time laying £300
Perhaps im doing something wrong
I can list my bets
17:35 Newc 14/1 'laid
17:45 Aint 14/1 'laid
17:50 Wolv 8/1 'laid
17:55 Chep 12/1 'laid
18:05 Newc 5/4F 2.06 'levels
18:20 Wolv 11/10F 1.94'levels
18:50 Wolv 5/4F 2.06'levels
19:20 Wolv 10/11F 1.77'levels
19:50 Wolv 4/7F 1.48 'stake and you win
20:20 Wolv 6/1 'laid
20:50 Wolv 4/11F 1.31'levels
17:45 Aint 14/1 'laid
17:50 Wolv 8/1 'laid
17:55 Chep 12/1 'laid
18:05 Newc 5/4F 2.06 'levels
18:20 Wolv 11/10F 1.94'levels
18:50 Wolv 5/4F 2.06'levels
19:20 Wolv 10/11F 1.77'levels
19:50 Wolv 4/7F 1.48 'stake and you win
20:20 Wolv 6/1 'laid
20:50 Wolv 4/11F 1.31'levels
sorry lex i thought u only bet or layed favs! the above confuses me,i need help sorry
iprefertolay - you'll need help soon! From a loan company!
04-04-2014
17:35 Newc 14/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bank and you won
17:45 Aint 14/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bigger bank and you won
17:50 Wolv 8/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bigger bankand you won
17:55 Chep 12/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bigger bankand you won
18:05 Newc 5/4F 2.06 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
18:20 Wolv 11/10F 1.94 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
18:50 Wolv 5/4F 2.06 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
19:20 Wolv 10/11F 1.77 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
At this point Iprefertolay thought hmmmm now what did that lunatic Lex say? oh yes, I could get my stakes back now because there has never been 10 consecutive across the card UK and Ireland favourites.
He better be feckin' right. I'm rubbish at working these things out, but I'll give it a go...
19:50 Wolv 4/7F 1.48 'laid the fav using increased stakes to get back my loss of 2.83 plus my target but as this fav is only at odds 1.48 I only need a lay stake of about 1.9. Lex was right, the bookies do shorten up their prices when they're losing!
Lex!!! you feckerr!! it feckin won!!! now what I am I going to do????
Thinks.... Stay Calm, Stay Calm - lex said it would be ok.....
20:20 Wolv 6/1 'this fav was 11/8 (quite a bit shorter than the forecast) But I Laid it for 2.62 could've cost me nearly 10 points though! phew, that was close...!
20:50 Wolv 4/11F 1.31 'oh bugger here we go again..... hate that Lex bloke....
Iprefertolay. as EddietheEagle said, perhaps the most inappropriate forum name.
Seriously mate, you don't get it. No shame in that. But you're going to do yourself damage.
17:35 Newc 14/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bank and you won
17:45 Aint 14/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bigger bank and you won
17:50 Wolv 8/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bigger bankand you won
17:55 Chep 12/1 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your bigger bankand you won
18:05 Newc 5/4F 2.06 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
18:20 Wolv 11/10F 1.94 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
18:50 Wolv 5/4F 2.06 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
19:20 Wolv 10/11F 1.77 'laid the fav using level stake 2.5% of your last bank figure and you lost
At this point Iprefertolay thought hmmmm now what did that lunatic Lex say? oh yes, I could get my stakes back now because there has never been 10 consecutive across the card UK and Ireland favourites.
He better be feckin' right. I'm rubbish at working these things out, but I'll give it a go...
19:50 Wolv 4/7F 1.48 'laid the fav using increased stakes to get back my loss of 2.83 plus my target but as this fav is only at odds 1.48 I only need a lay stake of about 1.9. Lex was right, the bookies do shorten up their prices when they're losing!
Lex!!! you feckerr!! it feckin won!!! now what I am I going to do????
Thinks.... Stay Calm, Stay Calm - lex said it would be ok.....
20:20 Wolv 6/1 'this fav was 11/8 (quite a bit shorter than the forecast) But I Laid it for 2.62 could've cost me nearly 10 points though! phew, that was close...!
20:50 Wolv 4/11F 1.31 'oh bugger here we go again..... hate that Lex bloke....
Iprefertolay. as EddietheEagle said, perhaps the most inappropriate forum name.
Seriously mate, you don't get it. No shame in that. But you're going to do yourself damage.
Another typo. the winning laid odds were 2.18 ... but you get the gist.
Just to add an earlier point I made. You could leave it until 5 favs have lost.
By laying at below industry SP you have a long term edge anyway. eg no need to chase if you don't want to.
Also, you don't need to get your losses back all at once; you could simply spread it over a few races.
Just getting some of your losses back gives you an extra advantage.
Any hoo; why not paper trade it using past results...
Not one to shy away from controversy but.... this works with the correct stats for backing too.
so, you could lay and back at the same time! win every race !
or do alternate races, or dutch bet runners across the card rather than runners in the same race, or ....
Bye!
By laying at below industry SP you have a long term edge anyway. eg no need to chase if you don't want to.
Also, you don't need to get your losses back all at once; you could simply spread it over a few races.
Just getting some of your losses back gives you an extra advantage.
Any hoo; why not paper trade it using past results...
Not one to shy away from controversy but.... this works with the correct stats for backing too.
so, you could lay and back at the same time! win every race !
or do alternate races, or dutch bet runners across the card rather than runners in the same race, or ....
Bye!
btw the 7th fav 14:40 Windsor King Of Macedon lost good and proper and Lex wins again!
16:00 Kelso Barachois Silver will be 5 favs on the bounce at a Jumps meeting. Not impossible, but apparently very unlikely.
Stats win again. and more beer for me.
ok, thats enough for today.
ok, thats enough for today.
Lex, I was using a high risk Martingale approach,hence £300 lay when the loosing run hit.
A far better idea is get your losses back gradually as you point out.
I think I should stick to arbing.
A far better idea is get your losses back gradually as you point out.
I think I should stick to arbing.
Money management is obviously key,Im using far higher stakes than my bank can withstand.
Most of my bank is layed out on futures bets,yet to be settled,liabilities of £13k(but coverered)
The rest of my cash is locked away,cant touch thank god.
Most of my bank is layed out on futures bets,yet to be settled,liabilities of £13k(but coverered)
The rest of my cash is locked away,cant touch thank god.
Mate!? 
how can you say that what I'm doing is wrong (and lets be honest you have repeatedly said so)
when you say that
Im using far higher stakes than my bank can withstand.
Flippin' heck give me strength
I've been showing you since page 3 of this thread, back in March!
Lex, I was using a high risk Martingale approach,hence £300 lay when the loosing run hit.
Please stop betting now. You're a danger to yourself.
how can you say that what I'm doing is wrong (and lets be honest you have repeatedly said so)
when you say that
Im using far higher stakes than my bank can withstand.
Flippin' heck give me strength
I've been showing you since page 3 of this thread, back in March! Lex, I was using a high risk Martingale approach,hence £300 lay when the loosing run hit.
Please stop betting now. You're a danger to yourself.
What I tried to say was I was wrong as I was using far higher stakes than my account can withstand.
I tried your theory in a cack handed manner.
Yes,I have been critical of your system, I thought Id try it.
I tried your theory in a cack handed manner.
Yes,I have been critical of your system, I thought Id try it.
Feck me. I've just seen that you've been on here longer than me - 2002 ! Now that is seriously depressing.
Yes,I have been critical of your system, I thought Id try it.
That sort of sums it up really. Like most on here - quick to criticise, don't read what written etc etc.
And then you say "I thought Id try it". Well obviously "trying it" without paying any attention to the rules is just plain nuts. God; I shudder to think what you could have lost
That sort of sums it up really. Like most on here - quick to criticise, don't read what written etc etc.
And then you say "I thought Id try it". Well obviously "trying it" without paying any attention to the rules is just plain nuts. God; I shudder to think what you could have lost
Lex,must have been hairy yesterday 50 per cent favs going in!
Lex,ive been winning since 2002 through arbing.
Ive had numerous online accounts closed through winning,or they cotton on I arb.
Its only when I turn to other things,everything goes awry!
Ive had numerous online accounts closed through winning,or they cotton on I arb.
Its only when I turn to other things,everything goes awry!
I tried the arb game, but didn't last long. Betting hundreds of pounds just to win a few quid didn't seem worth it.
I still do it occasionly (more back & lay) but don't look for it like I use to.
I still do it occasionly (more back & lay) but don't look for it like I use to.
shep its brill at start up as you get free bonus offers,after youve exhausted them all,its down to pure arbing for minimal gaurenteed returns.
Accounts will get closed over time,depending how the bets land.
Accounts will get closed over time,depending how the bets land.
Yes I think we've all taken advantage over bonus offers haven't we!
But, like you say it's the thought of getting accounts closed that stops me from wanting to make a habit of it.
Bookies should take a leaf out of Pinnacle's book cos they encourage you to arb.
But, like you say it's the thought of getting accounts closed that stops me from wanting to make a habit of it.
Bookies should take a leaf out of Pinnacle's book cos they encourage you to arb.
Ive had accounts closed with,Bet365,Paddy Power,Bolesports,Ladbrokes,888,Victor Chandler,Sporting Odds,and one or two others.
Just Stan James for me. Limited with YouWin & Marathon Bet.
Sorry stan closed me two,never used Marathonbet what offer do they give for new customers?
I'm not sure. I think they're worth joining cos sometimes their odds are pretty good.
It's not the most modern looking site in the world though. Looks like it was designed on a Commodore or something?!?
It's not the most modern looking site in the world though. Looks like it was designed on a Commodore or something?!?
Lex wins again. Thanks guys; I hope that I've proved my point 
Lex,can you help I know Im a pain in the bum!
Could you tell me your stakes in monetary terms on your lays(and your aims and thinking) on Tuesday.
50 per cent of favs won Tuesday!
Im trying to learn. dont care if the stakes are low,thats not the issue,its me finding the right way forward.
Could you tell me your stakes in monetary terms on your lays(and your aims and thinking) on Tuesday.
50 per cent of favs won Tuesday!
Im trying to learn. dont care if the stakes are low,thats not the issue,its me finding the right way forward.
the bugger won. But it was well odds on so no harm done.
ok, lay the next one (might be joints)
15:15 Yarmouth
ok, lay the next one (might be joints)
15:15 Yarmouth
The fav won. oh blimey. Where's Sheppy when you need him?
next fav goodwood 15:25 Kalispell
next fav goodwood 15:25 Kalispell
8 favs? thats a 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 = 0.0000225 chance of happening.
Could the meteor strike?
Could the meteor strike?
the bookies new 2.75 ISP but 3.92 on here.
Never in doubt.....
Lex wins... again!
Never in doubt.....
Lex wins... again!
Hi Shep
Bookies had a really bad day yesterday !
total races 47
Favs 29/47 SR 61.7%
Ave ISP 3 (100/3 = 33.33%)
Dont think I've ever seen such a high fav count on a full days racing before.
The meteorite nearly got me!
Bookies had a really bad day yesterday !
total races 47
Favs 29/47 SR 61.7%
Ave ISP 3 (100/3 = 33.33%)
Dont think I've ever seen such a high fav count on a full days racing before.
The meteorite nearly got me!
Funny old game.
Today evened it all out again.
Who you calling a dinosaur?
jus cos Ive been doing this since ghe bookies opened their shops...
Today evened it all out again.
Who you calling a dinosaur?
jus cos Ive been doing this since ghe bookies opened their shops...
Time to get those brown corduroys on
14:50 Muss
Diamond Creek or whatever the fav is
its dooomed I tell ye.
14:50 Muss
Diamond Creek or whatever the fav is
its dooomed I tell ye.
15:05 York
Atreus was the fav
and........ LEX WINS!!
never in doubt
Atreus was the fav
and........ LEX WINS!!
never in doubt
17:50 Aint
Masterofdeception (or whatever the fav is)
can't be the 7th consecutive fav can it??
can we get 10 favs in a row?? its never happened !!!!
Masterofdeception (or whatever the fav is)
can't be the 7th consecutive fav can it??
can we get 10 favs in a row?? its never happened !!!!
and I reckon he's going to win again in a minute
15:30 Wind
Yenhaab
is up against the stats......
15:30 Wind
Yenhaab
is up against the stats......
I used my system in the Casino 4 weeks ago, 14 visits in 5 days, I had 6 witnesses ... 13 visits I walked out with profit
Just in case you thought it was safe to go back to the pool......
Lay the fav 14:55 Nott , Duke of North or it may be Prince of Time, cos they're flip floppers.
But the fav WILL LOSE
Lay the fav 14:55 Nott , Duke of North or it may be Prince of Time, cos they're flip floppers.
But the fav WILL LOSE
Form an queue at the payout counter.... LEX WINS AGAIN!!
of course he does. It 'the stats' innit
of course he does. It 'the stats'
innit
done this a few times now lex, getting nowhere near 95% matched in runnning,more like 75%
etting matched depends on your spread. I find 15-20% less than ISP you get matched. Also depends on the favs price band. A fav at 5.0 is not as likely to get matched as 2.0 which is sort of obvious. Getting matched or laying more than one to lower the liability below ISP is the aim.
But this thread was about martingale, and as you can see from months of posts, this works fine.
But this thread was about martingale, and as you can see from months of posts, this works fine.
Of course you will get bumps in the road, but stats are the foundation to ALL bookmaker run events. Thats why when you see a 'plunge' you have got to take note. How do you think they price up markets or where the forecast prices come from? past results, performances and stats.
Here's another one for you, over 90% of races are won by the 1st and 2nd fav in the first 2 non handicap races of the day.
Why? because it give the bookie time to recoup. Thats why the feature race is around half way through the card and the fav seldom (eg less than stats for favs) wins it.
Take the 1st 2 non handocaps races today for example. Guaranteed? of course not, but they win far more than they "should".
Hi Lex, I like this thread and have read it all several times. Could you help me with the above statement you wrote, if true it would help me with my strategy where I only lay one bet a day unless it's a loss, then I don't use martingale having come a croper with it many a times! but I do continue to bet at level stakes over a few days to recover. Then go back to one a day very boring betting I know but seems to have worked well so far Since Jan with continual monthly profits. Although by all the negative comments I've had on my post about my system, It is doomed to failure so should give up now! I am a realist so they are probably right but it's still fun trying! Thanks.
Here's another one for you, over 90% of races are won by the 1st and 2nd fav in the first 2 non handicap races of the day.
Why? because it give the bookie time to recoup. Thats why the feature race is around half way through the card and the fav seldom (eg less than stats for favs) wins it.
Take the 1st 2 non handocaps races today for example. Guaranteed? of course not, but they win far more than they "should".
Hi Lex, I like this thread and have read it all several times. Could you help me with the above statement you wrote, if true it would help me with my strategy where I only lay one bet a day unless it's a loss, then I don't use martingale having come a croper with it many a times! but I do continue to bet at level stakes over a few days to recover. Then go back to one a day very boring betting I know but seems to have worked well so far Since Jan with continual monthly profits. Although by all the negative comments I've had on my post about my system, It is doomed to failure so should give up now! I am a realist so they are probably right but it's still fun trying! Thanks.
ok, happy to help. Explain your method and the selection process.
All 'systems' are cyclic. You tend to start with real money after its been winning on paper. You then pile in under prepared and lose. And then you go away scratching your head wonering why it went wrong. Its simply a sine curve, hence why betting is a roller coaster.
Any system works.
Pick the third fav to back or lay on alterated wednesdays at 3pm. You will win and lose in equal measure.
But you will lose long term because the price you bet at is worse than the statistical odds of the beast doing its job.
Understand the cycle or beat the industry starting price allowing for the fluctuations is the only way to go (if you're un connected.)
You can study form all your life and still be a loser; in fact most are, sorry to say.
And in return someone please tell me how to stop making stupid bets which lose cos I get bored
All 'systems' are cyclic. You tend to start with real money after its been winning on paper. You then pile in under prepared and lose. And then you go away scratching your head wonering why it went wrong. Its simply a sine curve, hence why betting is a roller coaster.
Any system works.
Pick the third fav to back or lay on alterated wednesdays at 3pm. You will win and lose in equal measure.
But you will lose long term because the price you bet at is worse than the statistical odds of the beast doing its job.
Understand the cycle or beat the industry starting price allowing for the fluctuations is the only way to go (if you're un connected.)
You can study form all your life and still be a loser; in fact most are, sorry to say.
And in return someone please tell me how to stop making stupid bets which lose cos I get bored
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