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The Martingale system
The Martingale system
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Replies: 646
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brilliant darlo also he would have to lay higher than sp, often to get matched!
lets call it quaurter of a milion round number  |
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Darlo. it's bad, but not as bad as you state. You have used total payout in your calculation instead of liability which gives you the correct numbers.
it is like this for the one without commission : Race 6: £45 to win £10. LOST Race 7: £165 to win £10. LOST Race 8: £440 to win £10. LOST Race 9: £1,320 to win £10. LOST Race 10: £3,960 to win £10. LOST Race 11: £8,910 to win £10. AAAGH Total staked would be £14,840 I can't be bothered doing the calculation with commission as that would be different for each customer depending on their starting points. Even if you started this with 0 points and on 5 % commission, your commission rate would go down for every bet you lose. The total staked taking commission into the picture would be something like 15 to 30 % higher for everyone though. |
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Sorry, I made a mistake using 2/1 for bet 10. It was 3/1, so these are the correct numbers :
Race 6: £45 to win £10. LOST Race 7: £165 to win £10. LOST Race 8: £440 to win £10. LOST Race 9: £1,320 to win £10. LOST Race 10: £5,940 to win £10. LOST Race 11: £11,880 to win £10. AAAGH Total staked would be £19,790 |
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Eddie - damn it! You got me excited there! At £14.840 I was gonna try it.
But, £19,790 is out of the question!  |
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Well done chaps !
now how do you calculate how much you would win by doing this; while waiting for the 11th favourite to lose you 20k?? and lets do it from 2008 after the so called last 10 consecutive favs came in. Don't forget to use the Irish races too! so thats 6 years racing 12,500 races a year at say £10 per very 4 favourites (at worst) ..... Get yer calculator out Shep! |
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er... 180K minimum ?
 and what if you used 1/2 % of your bank (20k to win a tenner) but compounded the stake every time the bank grew? Go, on work it out..... |
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I reckon you would call it quits at a few million and start again.
Betfair's cross matcher might blow a gaskett though !  |
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I'm not sure I understand what you are talking about Lex
 But, if you did this over this 6 years period and went in after you had 5 favourites winning in a row and tried to make a tenner every time - I would guess you would have made less than 20 k during that 6 years period assuming you didn't blow your bank trying. |
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Hi Lex!
I think rocket science would be easier to work out! |
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I'm struggling to comprehend that's their is still people out there using the Martingale method. Mentalists.
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Hi Eddie youve always struck me as one of the brighter ones of the bunch so if you dont get it what chance the rest.
if you won a tenner for every losing UK Ireland favourite (with a 20k bank behind you incase of 10 in a row) then you would win £10 x 66% x 6 years x 12500 races which is just shy of 1/2 a million squids the chances of losing your 20k is more than covered. But consider what if you compounded the bank and the stake grew... Discuss  |
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Hi Lex!
The odds of more than 10 consecutive favourites winning is massive, BUT... It could happen! Things change. Every week something happens that's amazing. For me, this is a short term strategy, as you'll get caught out in the end. It could take 5 years, but it WILL happen. I can tell that you're a great guy Lex, I'd hate to see you in the gutter! |
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At least from the gutter I can look up at the stars.....
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Wasn't the scanario that you would go in after 5 consecutive favourites winning ?
I don't think a 20 k bank using martingale would cover the losses if you had 10 in a row. In the example iprefertolay made, it would only cover 6 losses in a row and that was not counting in commission. With commission in that case you would roughly need a 25 k bank to cover 6. I don't know if the odds he gave us would be close to what average starting price is for the favourite, but I don't think it would be to far from the real numbers. |
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(psst... you do know I'm having a laff - right? )
Every one's getting hung up on feckin martin gale. Its not martingale is it. its a bit of bank management, getting the right prices and noting that you can make a bit of dosh on the back on the losers. Who in their right mind would be chasing a tenner? But the point is, if you've had a run of favs then lay one (or three) cos the chance of it losing is a lot higher cos the more consec' winners there has been the less likelyhood of another. (yeah yeah racing has no memory blah blah, yes it blinkin' has - its not roooolette! ) As I said before bookies alter prices according to their liabilities. ever thought way you get flip floppers after 4 favs winning? or joint and co-favs? Why there are generally 21 races a day, Why favs tend to win in the first part of the afternoon or in the 'lucky last' bumpers? or why the big race is a tricky handicap at 3.30? You can see how their day is going by working out the average price of the winners! No doubt I'll pop back to shout 'lay it' in the near future. |
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Lex, I know nothing about UK horseracing and have no idea how many favorites that win or their average starting price.
All I did was to answer iprefertolay's question and it revolved around some kind of modified martingaling. |
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Eddie,Lex
Darlos figures of £119k is more accurate.It reflects your total liabilities (and therefore losses)after race eleven when the big hit occurs. Eddie in race one Lex is laying a 9/2 shot, liability £55, £45 plus £10 to win £10 and so on. Its actually far worse than £119k as you will be laying above SP often. A more realistic figure would be in the order of £125k/£130K. Lets assume the big hit doesnt arrive for six years. What we need to establish is how much would you win following the system?,(over six years)bearing in mind you dont bet until five favourites have gone in. Then simply add up the profits and subtract the big hit loss which WILL occur! |
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Poor Lex has lost all his hair due to too much martingaling!
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If you don't bet until 5 favs have gone in you would spend most days with your thumb up your arse
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Whats wrong with that?
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and with the other hand you could be laying all favourites at the off at 15% less than the industry SP.
Then; if 5 favs win you could get your 20k bank ready... Shep, that is a picture of me concentrating on me perineum... |
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damn that spell checker...
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The Vis, if on average Lex bet once a week to win a tenner when five favs have gone in,he would win £3120 after six years, and the big hit is in the region of £125k/£130k
Doesnt make a lot of sense does it! |
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It looks like you've turned away from the screen cos you can't believe the 10th consecutive favourite is just about to cross the line!
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well what can I say? 11 pages and 10,500 views. Quite a catch.
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the fav will lose the Kempton 19.30
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Lex stop moving the goal posts and do the maths, you need 130k min.
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is your first name Iprefer?
I only need 130k if I'm wrong. and I'm not. |
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next wednesday that is.
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Lex, Theres a big difference between your stated £20k and £130k im trying to keep it as basic as possible for you.
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Lex,when do you reckon the next five consequtive favs are going in so you can bet?
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If I had a £20k bank for using Martingale system, am sure I could retire and just make a living from it ... I'd just bet 15 hours a day usijng it, pretty confident of turing £20k into at least half a million within 3 years
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Schalke, if you believe that deep down - You are either stupid or naive, or probably both.
I don't know your situation, but how hard is it to scrape together 20 k and have a go ? You wouldn't even have to quit your job(if you have one) as it seems you allready are on here 15 hours a day.... |
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iprefertolay, you are wrong.
If you lay a 9/2 to win £10, you only lose £45 if it wins. Same as you lay a 2/1, you only lose £20 if it wins Or if you lay at evens, you only lose £10 if it wins. |
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Lex,when do you reckon the next five consequtive favs are going in so you can bet?
well, I'll probably have a bet or two in between waiting for the big 'un. According to the flatstats link the 10 fav senario happens every 18 years, so we're safe for a bit. (bit like waiting for that doomsday meteor to hit - I hope I'm not about when it does) 5 favs seems to be fairly regular. I think the last one was 1st March. and a 6'er on the 19th March.(I would expect 6 or 7 of them a year) There was a seismic 9 last November but it had a lot of joint favs so if you coupled them the liability shouldnt have (mathematically) stung so much. But so far, Ive not got a record of a '10'. apart from Bo Derek - gawd bless 'er. and for the sake of uniformity here's me smiley |
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Hi Lex!
What would happen to your bank if 15 favourites won consecutively??? |
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Now then Shep, you havnt been reading the thread have you.
If 10 hasnt happened then 15 wont either Just had a look and that '9' last November was the first one in years. |
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I've read every word. Whether I've understood it or not is a different thing!
Things change. There might not have been 10 before, but if there's 10, then there could be 11, and then 12, 13, 14, 15... It could be 2025 but it WILL happen! Good luck! |