Losing streaks

if it was a poker game time to move up levels to where the respect your raises imo :)

it will turn around- keep making the right choices, is all you can do

January and February was effortless. 20% and then 8% in February.

March 5 for 14 and -40% of what I bet out.

It will always turn around. The weekend was laughable, though. I can take losing but expect the blow to be softened with one winner out of the roll.

Shape, your experience shows why staking plans don't work. By the way, you need to take care backing short priced picks to be winning at half time, for the simple reason that they don't need to winning at half time to win the match. I'm not after timing as I've given my humble opinion on this before.

SS, the fact that your selections lost by 1 minute or 1 goal makes it all the harder to take, but that shouldn't be the case if we're thinking straight.

My thread last week was about losing runs, but no-one seemed interested in discussing that sort of thing and the psychology that's so important to keeping a level head when the sh*t hits the fan.

In my case, I regularly take losses of 5, 6, or 7 on the trot which started to get to me, usually when the run of losses were a knats co*k from actually being winners, which triggered some kind of self pity leading to anger and irrational dangerous devil may care moments. I thought I was over that sort of bad thinking, so was quite suprised when it reared it's ugly head again last week.

So have now re-evaluated my attitude to quickly accept any losses and simply move on, forget them, never let them matter, and have felt much better this week for it.

trevh : didnt see notice your post last week, i'd also felt annoyed about a month ago when getting minimal response to psychology and approach issues. but theres no reason why the forum cannot head in a different direction in the future.

Unfortunately many have given up on the general betting forum which is a shame as it used to be the place you could come for a decent, worthwhile discussion with differing views but without the name calling.

One of the problems discussing the pyschology stuff is that the losers don't want to talk about it and many of the winners don't suffer from it.

The key for me is learning to recognize when I'm not in a fit state to bet. That happens, thankfully very rarely, but when it does, I just don't bet.

Something worth noting is that although I'm very emotionally stable between bets, I'm one of the worst people about when a bet is actually in progress and beyond the point where i have control over it. I don't know if these two facts are connected but it seems likely.

If, for instance, I have 5 baseball bets and am considering a bet on the later game, while the scores are coming in for those 5, I'll invariably find something to really seethe about, even if I win four of them. Genuinely annoying whining/seething like you'd see in a highstreet bookies or from a petulant child. However, even if those bets go 0 wins 5 losses, i'll be in a fit state to bet the sixth game correctly nearly every time. On the rare occasions where I'm still seething an hour later, I'm happy to do something different for a while and recognize that I'm not thinking rationally.

Note: On those occasions when I can recognize that I'm not thinking rationally, this recognition does not translate into an ability to change my mindset. I can sit and stare at my notes/prices/etc when I know I'm in that mood and I literally lose the ability to do the appropriate analysis, it's not that I can recognize my irritation and then use that to refocus, it doesn't work like that (for me)

*note: betting correctly means placing the right bet, not picking the winner.

lori, one problem i'm sure i have, is that i think i generally learn something when i lose, but dont always learn something when i win, even when i win at bad value. which we all must do from time to time. the enjoyment of winning masks the fact it was a poor bet/series of bets.

I think i need to be more level headed and analyse my winners as much as my losers?

Yo would have to imagine your winning bet was a loser and how do you do that as you wouldn't know how it lost ? Just look at the losers and perhaps you will see something you missed.

kenilworth 17 Mar 11:28
Shape, your experience shows why staking plans don't work.

agree totally. All were bets within about 15% of each other, if I remember. No progression. Simply weighed them out.

By the way, you need to take care backing short priced picks to be winning at half time, for the simple reason that they don't need to winning at half time to win the match. I'm not after timing as I've given my humble opinion on this before.

Agree that it is a game of 90 minutes. But have a pretty good track record of calling the first 45 minutes. The African Cup, I think I went 90% on half time bets and was finished by 45 minutes.

My experience of first half odds on chances is to be a layer rather than a backer. I don't bet in the African football, maybe it's different.

Shape, your experience shows why staking plans don't work.

agree totally. All were bets within about 15% of each other, if I remember. No progression. Simply weighed them out.

I wasn't suggesting you used a staking plan, just highlighting what can happen when using one, especially progressive.

Understood that.

Taking on Nabeeda in the 5:40 with a lay. Nabeeda second to Albero Di Giuda who failed to follow up since on two outings. Support for the lay comes from Captain Kallis and Scruffy Skip who can challenge for the line with a bit more early pace than previous races. Rate this one Captain Kallis/Scruffy Skip/Nabeeda making Nabeeda the lay for the day.

And African was just for the Nations cup.

Unplaced and ratings gave the forecast :)

Monkey off the shoulder.

I think i need to be more level headed and analyse my winners as much as my losers?

That is definitely a common flaw in intelligent people I've spoken to who don't quite take the game seriously but want to improve.

Never assume you deserve to win or lose, particularly if you won or lost easily. You can back something at 5/1 that gets hammered but that doesn't mean it was a bad bet, probably a large part of the time it loses it loses badly. Similarly, you can back a 1.10 shot that wins easily and convince yourself it was a good bet because it won easily and not work out the factors that would have made it lose.

Surely if a selection wins easily or scrambles home,the way it won is irrelevant .Though I concede that a last minute goal or being mugged on the line IS hard to swallow . The hard part is trying to be emotionally detached from what is happening win or lose

That's what I was getting at though, if a selection wins easily, it's easy to be complacent and assume your bet was a cracking bet. If it scrapes home, you're more likely to review it accurately afterwards... imo.

I actually "rate" my wins and losses. Not with a spreadsheet but will look at how the bets unfolded. It allowed me to find types of sports, teams, leagues, distances, etc etc that I should follow.

Example, the read on the lay was, in a sense, 4/5. The horse was unplaced with 11 runners (it was 2F when I selected it, 3F on the off) and the support finished inside the frame (It is easy to select a horse for a lay (note "select"). It is another to find the horses that are going to support the lay). The reason it is not 5/5 would be that it was not around, say 2/1 or 3/1.

Over the past six months, found my pocket is 6F to 8F, sometime 9F. It cuts down the research, as well and makes you focus more and bet less.

My selection Lyon, I would rate that call around 3/5 since the team was scored against first and in the first half.

Last night's call with Vancouver - 1/5 - lost at home, scored against, never in the game. Rather than not back the Canucks, I've noted now that the Islanders have killed 3 bets this year so will avoid games involving NYI.

All this goes in the notebook. Everything taken on board.

Franky Four Fingers 17 Mar 18:03
Surely if a selection wins easily or scrambles home,the way it won is irrelevant .Though I concede that a last minute goal or being mugged on the line IS hard to swallow . The hard part is trying to be emotionally detached from what is happening win or lose

My post was in response to Franky and Lori's points. Further to what Franky wrote, an example:

I bet on HOME TEAM in football. My expectation is that I feel the team will score in both halves and shut out the opponent to be a perfect bet. This is what I strive to find but will also avoid shorter than 3/5 plus (thus why I will often bet HT/FT).

If the HOME TEAM won 1-0 with a goal in the second half, that would curve down the bet. Other factors of the stats and game give me the rating.

If the game is a draw with the home team leading 1-0 and conceding late on, that would cut it back.

Going behind 0-1, win, lose or draw for me pulls back the rating of the bet.

And if a team is leading 1-0, dominates the whole game but gets a penalty in the box and draws 1-1, then the bet, not the result, would be rated very positive and thus I would still follow the home team for future bets.

It is not a lot of work to do the next day and I find it is making me more selective and giving me a solid short list of teams to follow.
Note: I also factor in value but kept the above simple for discussion.

Lori 17 Mar 12:22

Note: On those occasions when I can recognize that I'm not thinking rationally, this recognition does not translate into an ability to change my mindset. I can sit and stare at my notes/prices/etc when I know I'm in that mood and I literally lose the ability to do the appropriate analysis, it's not that I can recognize my irritation and then use that to refocus, it doesn't work like that (for me)

Similar for me too, and maybe most punters? Perhaps the altered chemical process in the brain physically disables normal calm thought processes for a short period, until the adrenalin etc has disolved. The brain's a completed piece of equipment that's for sure, and is very much affected by organic processes aswell as mental ones. Think of a nice fresh juicy lemon, bite into it and feel the bitter lemon zest in your mouth, then feel the saliva created by just that thought! Who knows what other hormones are released and affect the brain when we allow ourselves to become stressed?

Find losing becomes contageous in streaks- cycles. Same for winning- almost effortless at times.

Fair point that rink. In fact I strongly suspect my worst decisions come after a huge winning streak rather than after a huge losing one, as it's much harder to detect the fact you've started betting like a mug.

I used to suffer quite badly (as in perhaps twice a month) from an impetus to go crazy after a long streak of losers. I know exactly why I stopped getting irrational although it might not be applicable to many others.

Essentially I made a lifestyle change and gave up full time gambling and re-entered the world of work. I realised that I could continue being active in about 80% of the markets whilst at the same time receiving almost the same income from gainful employment.

Without the stress of needing to win the money it has rejuvenated my betting. I've actually found that I participate in only c.60% or so of the markets I did previously but from Sept to date I'm actually running at about +15% profit on the previous term.

In the past I would very often go 'on tilt' or attempt to 'chase' and as I didn't believe in the whole walk away and do something else philosophy. I had a separate account with a grand in it that I used for such occasions and would essentially allow myself to go nuts and put it all on something to chase and then, when the adrenaline had flowed out and I was thinking clearly again, I would lay out of the bet and take the 1 or 2 tick loss (occasionally a small green). There was always some reason to the madness because It would always be in a market that wasn't due to start within the next hour and in that sense perhaps it wasn't a complete loss of control that others might feel.

Nothing cures the ills of poor betting strategy better than a good losing streak. As suggested too much winning makes one fat , happy and sloppy to the point where the inevitable turn to loss has to revert .

Arrr, shapeshifter...you must understand that you be always at a big disad'antage when bettin' E'en at 100% book.You will e'entually go bust like others on here unless you Repent and become a tradin' pirate!, shiver me timbers!

Arrr, curlyblues...you need t' be disciplined with the lash and become a decent pirate trader. It is your only hope o' profit on Betfair lad, arrgghh!

Hey Matie, I do trade and sail where the winds take me. Consider my betting and laying seperate to trading. I'll also trade to reduce risk (parallel markets, etc).

SHAPESHIFTER
survivor since April 2003

**Shapeshifter....stop tryin' to predict thin's 'n ye gunna do better. Do ye want to be RIGHT or to be PROFITABLE?

Trading was burning me out as a person. Between BF and other projects, too much time in front of the computer. It numbs you as a person.

Enjoy researching an event and having a flutter. I won't go broke betting nor will I get rich but clicking the "green" button several times a day made me feel like a slave to the pixels.

Life be good.

Shapeshifter....sounds to me like a stakin' problem. Each trader must be knowin' himself first --- what be ye tolerences fer loss, frustration, the hour limits, etc..Always trade within ye limits to achieve success.

No problems with staking. Infact, no problems at all except a bad March!

Use the guide of 3% per bet on my bank but will often use a larger amount and trade to reduce risk.

No progressions or chasing (two words / one meaning...chasing). Once a loss is incurred, it is gone. I used to promote shows. Once the band said "good night, Montreal", there were no more tickets to be sold. If the show lost money, it lost money. It just made you work a bit harder on the next gig on promotion and costs. Quite the analogy.

I ramp up and down depending on value, factors of history on that type of bet, etc. All the bets were within a % of each other and managed a negative ROI on the month.

Yesterday's lay lost last night. Only play of the day yesterday. Hopefully not a new streak :)

By the way, Snapper. If you are suggesting a progressive staking plan, I am more than happy to post the odds taken and anyone would be able to see how it could have wiped out a bank.

I would never, ever use a "progressive" stakin' plan. It be a guaranteed way to blow up. Tradin' band 'o Betfair pirates use a fixed loss 'o under 2% per trade fer th' simple reason that me 60% 'o losin' trades must be balanced by th' 40% (or less) 'o winners. ye 3% level, in fact, be too aggressive fer even a scurvy pirate like me. 3% be like fishin' wit' a small net...ye have to be right or ye be goin' to be off back to port famished...

TheSnapper 19 Mar 11:34

**Shapeshifter....stop tryin' to predict thin's 'n ye gunna do better. Do ye want to be RIGHT or to be PROFITABLE?

Best advice ever posted - well put my man ;-)