A thread about staking - without doubt the weakest aspect of my own game.
Setting aside a bankroll of £1,000 for this experiment, let's see where a staking policy based broadly on Kelly principles takes us.
Kelly, in a nutshell, is maths to find the right stake for any given bet - and that depends on (1) the size of the bankroll, and (2) the "edge" (or value) that you think you've found in the market.
I'm aware that Kelly, applied strictly, is seen by some as too risky, and so prefer instead to divide the Kelly Stake by 2 or more. But I'll just see how the idea develops, drawing conclusions along the way.
I'm aware that Kelly, applied strictly, is seen by some as too risky, and so prefer instead to divide the Kelly Stake by 2 or more. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bacchanal, what would Full Kelly position be including during your initial losing sequence?
I'm aware that Kelly, applied strictly, is seen by some as too risky, and so prefer instead to divide the Kelly Stake by 2 or more.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bacchanal, what would Full Kelly positio
12.35 Thurles Not a race to get heavily involved in, but young Victor is out on his own offering 3s about Paul Nolan's Revelling. Her bumper form was boosted last Sunday when For Bill went in at Navan.
Bank = 2091.25 Available odds: 3/1 ( V C ) My odds: 11/4 (26.67%) Kelly stake = 46.57 (say £45 win)
12.35 ThurlesNot a race to get heavily involved in, but young Victor is out on his own offering 3s about Paul Nolan's Revelling. Her bumper form was boosted last Sunday when For Bill went in at Navan.Bank = 2091.25Available odds: 3/1 ( V C )My odds:
Long Distance Hurdle Big Buck's, deservedly big odds-on against this lot, could yet be vulnerable first time out, and Duc De Regniere might be the one to make him work. Positives: Henderson in great form and always does well at this meeting; he's had the benefit of a run, albeit over fences; he won this last year although may not get the slow pace that played into his hands that time; the big horse will no doubt come on plenty for the run.
Bank = 2046.25 Available odds: 7/1 (gen) My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Kelly = 41.86 (say £40.25 win)
Long Distance HurdleBig Buck's, deservedly big odds-on against this lot, could yet be vulnerable first time out, and Duc De Regniere might be the one to make him work. Positives: Henderson in great form and always does well at this meeting; he's had
GL B.......fav as you say may well win and should win....the one at higher odds that might take it on IMO is Souffleur............the going and weight should pssibly give it a chance of 2nd.
GL B.......fav as you say may well win and should win....the one at higher odds that might take it on IMO is Souffleur............the going and weight should pssibly give it a chance of 2nd.
bacchanal - I get the impression that you are getting "used" to the KELLY STAKING and now see it as a huge plus to you to be a valuable tool to assist in controlling STAKING.
I know I only used the KELLY STAKING CALCULATOR for a short period of time, but I did find it extremely useful for making me think more about the probability of a selection winning............something that I probably just ignored when betting previously . This just has to be a huge plus for using the KSC......................as far more control over staking is being exercised as more "thought" re the value of bet is being done.
As you know I tested on ATTEMPT 1 thread and lost 1,000 point paper bank whilst getting myself up to speed on how races were being run currently etc......then on ATTEMPT 2 made about 1,090 points PAPER profit ( would have been a further 1,000 points profit if was using BF SP and not been writing off profit IR, as well as using FULL KELLY staking). I then used real money small bank over only a few days and made a profit....................again would have been about £900 more had I used FULL KELLY staking!
The conclusion I came to was that the way I bet I can lose a bank eventually if my standard of selection is poor for a long run of bets.......it would take ages before a full bank lost ! However, the potential high profit runs would more than compensate for those bad run of results, and a bank would double or treble etc over a few bets....HAD I APPLIED FULL KELLY STAKING.
So I will be going for a £1,000 starting bank ( in December once certain work completed) and probably operating to one third KELLY stakes for at least 10 bets, then increasing to two third KELLY stakes for next run of 10 bets.........if no winner obtained ( my longest losing run was 16 doing almost every race on the ATTEMPTS) after 20 bets......the bank is likely to be about half the opening bank. I will then top up the bank to £1,000 and return to staking at one third level stakes and repeat staking levels IF no winner obtained after 10 bets etc.....
As I expect to have some excellent returns when I hit those run of bets where I get 3 or more winners at reasonable odds, then I believe this method of staking using KSC will enable me to make good profits. ( I think I will withdraw profits, or to recoup previous loss, once bank goes over £1,500.....then start again with £1,000 etc).
Will have enough funds to use above approach 7 times if hit that run of over 100 losers in a row.....Once I get to having doubled the size of over all bank , then I will increase the bank to £2,000 and top up at £1,000 mark etc ).
My thanks again to both you and Sandown , and Lori, re doing your threads, and posting on subject. It has assisted me considerably on the hard subjects of STAKING ,VALUE and EVALUATING PROBABILITY ....................etc
GL with bets
bacchanal - I get the impression that you are getting "used" to the KELLY STAKING and now see it as a huge plus to you to be a valuable tool to assist in controlling STAKING.I know I only used the KELLY STAKING CALCULATOR for a short period of time,
Not checked this for a while, but excellent work Bacch.....one of the few threads thats been going a while thats actually interesting....
Just wish I knew about horses......though my late grandfather used to bet on ones which had just had a p o o before the off on the grounds that they had less weight to carry !!!
Not checked this for a while, but excellent work Bacch.....one of the few threads thats been going a while thats actually interesting....Just wish I knew about horses......though my late grandfather used to bet on ones which had just had a p o o befo
Drinmore Chase, Fairyhouse This is a fantastic renewal which, notwithstanding the heavy ground, should shine a big light on the novice chase division in Ireland for the year ahead.
Against this field Mr Warbucks could finish nearer last than first, but I think the 12/1 about him is worth a small nibble. Whatuthink has probably improved since these two met, but the fact remains that Mr Warbucks beat him, jumping and staying well. Many of the others were classier hurdlers but they still have some questions to answer over the big black ones.
Bank = 2006 Available odds: 12/1 (L a d b r o k e s , B e t 3 6 5) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Kelly stake = £30.37 (say £15 e/w)
Thanks for the kind remarks lads and good luck.Drinmore Chase, FairyhouseThis is a fantastic renewal which, notwithstanding the heavy ground, should shine a big light on the novice chase division in Ireland for the year ahead.Against this field Mr Wa
2.45 Wincanton An interesting little novice chase, but with neither Vodka Brook nor Backbenscher especially impressive on their fencing debuts, this looks a fair opportunity for Aux Le Bahnn, the apple of Noel Chance's eye. Our Bob is an interesting runner, returning to the track after a long absence, so the margins here look pretty slim, in spite of the small field.
Bank = 1976 Available odds: 5/2 (generally, including best odds guaranteed) My odds: 9/4 (30.77%) Kelly = 60.82 (say £60 win)
2.45 WincantonAn interesting little novice chase, but with neither Vodka Brook nor Backbenscher especially impressive on their fencing debuts, this looks a fair opportunity for Aux Le Bahnn, the apple of Noel Chance's eye. Our Bob is an interesting
Hong Kong Sprint (13 December) The only previous ante-post selection on this thread failed to make it to the track, but I can never resist this fantastic card.
The sprint is an interesting this year because there are doubts about the principals: Sacred Kingdom hasn't really built on his renaissance win in Singapore; Apache Cat couldn't win this last year; All Silent, the current Aussie buzz horse, seems much better on straight tracks; and Scenic Blast has regressed badly since his devasting win in the King's Stand.
California Flag must also overcome two obstacles: (1) running overseas for the first time; and (2) going right-handed. But at a stand-out 10/1 with one firm I still like his chances because I think he has a fair shot of getting his own way up front. The Japanese horse, Laurel Guerrerio, may be the only one in the field that will look to go with him, but I don't think he'll have the gears.
Also, the HK-trained One World, while very likely outclassed, should not be 66/1. He was a bit unlucky in the trial for this last time out and is pretty consistent. If some of the internationals misfire he could make the frame.
Bank = 1916
California Flag odds: 10/1 (C o r a l) My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Kelly stake = £42.55 (say £40 win)
One World odds: 66/1 (generally) My odds: 40/1 (2.44%) Kelly stake = £18.43 (say £10 e/w)
Hong Kong Sprint (13 December)The only previous ante-post selection on this thread failed to make it to the track, but I can never resist this fantastic card.The sprint is an interesting this year because there are doubts about the principals: Sacred
Henry VIII With Crack Away Jack solid and Tchico Polos given a good word from the champion trainer, the likeable Somersby is trading at a backable price for this. The ground is a bit of unknown, but not only for Henrietta's horse.
Bank: 1856 (+60 pending ante-post) Available odds: 5.1 (betfair) My odds: 7/2 (22.22%) Kelly (incl 5% commission): 41.78 (say £40 win)
Henry VIIIWith Crack Away Jack solid and Tchico Polos given a good word from the champion trainer, the likeable Somersby is trading at a backable price for this. The ground is a bit of unknown, but not only for Henrietta's horse.Bank: 1856 (+60 pend
2.20 Kelso (Borders National) On the face of it he's an inexperienced novice, but he has plenty of point to point form. Time will tell if a mark of 128 flatters him, but Jaunty Journey has always shaped like a decent staying chaser when there's a good bit of give underfoot. Twice now in his short career, at Chepstow, he's battled home over 3m against better-travelling opponents, and the hope is that he can improve a bit more for this extra mile. The lad on top takes off a valuable 5lb.
Bank = £2011.80 (not incl. £60 ante-post, which is tied-up) Available odds: 9/1 (P o w e r, S k y) My odds: 15/2 (11.76%) Kelly stake = 39.34 (say £40 win)
2.20 Kelso (Borders National)On the face of it he's an inexperienced novice, but he has plenty of point to point form. Time will tell if a mark of 128 flatters him, but Jaunty Journey has always shaped like a decent staying chaser when there's a goo
GL bacchanal. Just had a quick look at race and as your selection is a 6 yo it is asking a lot of a young horse to win at the distance of race on the soft going.
I know this race is not as far as the GN.....but still worth considering that no horse under age of 8 has won the GN over the last 19 years at least!
Morgan Be , if carrying less weight , is "interesting" one and this might well be in first 3 home........and the 10 yod horses may well be the ones where winner comes from 9 ( as the two 8 yods in race may find it tough on going today at distance of race). ROYAL ROSA and LUCKY NELLERIE are likely to be ploughing on at finish , whilst distance might be too short for L'AVENTURE ]:) :D !
Really is a right mixture of age groups in this race and perhaps a 6 yo can win against opposition that does not look too competitive...................so fingers crossed your one wins ......danger MB and probably LN at weights.........
GL bacchanal. Just had a quick look at race and as your selection is a 6 yo it is asking a lot of a young horse to win at the distance of race on the soft going.I know this race is not as far as the GN.....but still worth considering that no horse un
BTW - never looked at market odds prior to posting here......and was a bit surprised MB is currently favourite. Odds are too low IMO considering the weight carried on such going as today.......F Murphy having 2 horses in race puts me off the race shape............ROYAL ROSA may well run a good race today......and odds EW are reasonable ....probably would opt for that one to win and to be 2nd to MB ( if handles weight then should have a chance to win today........IF !!!!)
Gl again
BTW - never looked at market odds prior to posting here......and was a bit surprised MB is currently favourite. Odds are too low IMO considering the weight carried on such going as today.......F Murphy having 2 horses in race puts me off the race sha
Top-up trebles, double-chance races, winning distances and jockey trebles!
Latest results from around the country
Kelso 2.20 1st 6 L'aventure (FR) 5-1 F 2nd 2 Bold Ransom (IRE) 11-2 3rd 8 Royal Mackintosh 6-1 =========================================
10 yo wins .....at least was on right track when posted earlier .....trouble is I picked out wrong one of 3 that thought distance would be too short for it!
MB - could not handle the weight at distance.....
6 yods struggled at distance on going..............
I usually backed L'AVENTURE in GN as it always "stays on"...................and against class of horses today it was too much of an out and out stayer for them..........If anything the tactics employed by F Murphy with LN leading and setting pace for L'AV suited L'AV .....as usually it is out the back and comes on late in race .....today was kept up with pace and trainer got tactics spot on!
Gl with next bet B.....
RACING RESULTSTop-up trebles, double-chance races, winning distances and jockey trebles!Latest results from around the country Kelso 2.20 1st 6 L'aventure (FR) 5-1 F 2nd 2 Bold Ransom (IRE) 11-2 3rd 8 Royal Mackintosh 6-1
Hong Kong Mile (13 December) This is an interesting betting race because favourite Good Ba Ba has been a shadow of his former self since moving stables. Of course, his new handler may be peaking him for the big one, but on what we've seen on the track so far he has to be opposed at 11/8.
At 4/1 Happy Zero is next in the market, and steps up to a mile after trouncing Sacred Kingdom in the Sprint Trial. Normally I'd be keen to take him on too (the great sprinter Silent Witness couldn't cope when asked to go 8f) but the more you look at the field, the more you like his chances.
The only one that looks mildly overpriced is the consistent Fellowship, who may be worth a saver at 16/1 with the Magic Sign. The international contingent, meanwhile, looks more than a notch below Group 1, although you could argue that Confront is improving.
If Happy Zero truly gets the 8f (and that's a big "if") it'll take a peak form Good Ba Ba to beat him.
Bank = 1971.80 (not including 60 tied-up ante-post) Available odds: 4/1 (generally) My odds: 7/2 (22.22%) Kelly stake = 54.72 (say £55 win)
Hong Kong Mile (13 December)This is an interesting betting race because favourite Good Ba Ba has been a shadow of his former self since moving stables. Of course, his new handler may be peaking him for the big one, but on what we've seen on the track
Alright josh? I watch racing every day but can't bear to sit in front of it all.
Over the sticks I'll watch all the top class stuff, and on top of that try to keep up with as much novice hurldes and chases as I can, both in GB and IRE. There are a couple of fair nov hurdles at Fontwell & Sedgefield today but not a lot else. I'll only switch on for the races, so miss all the associated chat. On a quiet day, like today, I'd say I'm actually sat watching racing for no more than half an hour, but you're talking between 1-2 hours on busier & better racing days towards the end of the week.
On the Flat, again I watch all the good quality Pattern racing. With the exception of a few big hcaps, most sprints & some 2YO and 3YO mdns, I pretty much ditch everything else.
Hopefully the channels will provide us with more paddock shots so that I can develop your late grandfather's selection policy...
Alright josh? I watch racing every day but can't bear to sit in front of it all. Over the sticks I'll watch all the top class stuff, and on top of that try to keep up with as much novice hurldes and chases as I can, both in GB and IRE. There are a c
Lol......I was kinda of wondering if I should do that just for fun!!! Shame I dont work for Alphameric anymore ( who own half of Turftv ) , I would have watched out for that during the working day!!!
Lol......I was kinda of wondering if I should do that just for fun!!! Shame I dont work for Alphameric anymore ( who own half of Turftv ) , I would have watched out for that during the working day!!!
I only bet on Group Racing on the Flat , i don't bother with the Jumps at all , never anything much happening before Friday , and even then the big weekend races are often handicaps (which i never bet on) . The majority of top class NH Horses run no more than 4 times a season as the programme is not really designed with them in mind.
Will you switch more to other sports now in the winter?
I only bet on Group Racing on the Flat , i don't bother with the Jumps at all , never anything much happening before Friday , and even then the big weekend races are often handicaps (which i never bet on) . The majority of top class NH Horses run no
I love the NFL & the arrers but only for occasional, rather than serious, punting.
I've been meaning for a little while to delve deeper into the Southwell Fibresand because I can see the logic of trying to specialise at that one, unique track but I haven't got very far at all.
I could always smash into your footie selections, tobermory...
I love the NFL & the arrers but only for occasional, rather than serious, punting.I've been meaning for a little while to delve deeper into the Southwell Fibresand because I can see the logic of trying to specialise at that one, unique track but I ha
I would have thought at the like of Southwell with the going pretty much standard all the time that the " horses for courses" approach would not actually work here......
I would have thought at the like of Southwell with the going pretty much standard all the time that the " horses for courses" approach would not actually work here......
Mixed results from today's barrier draw for the big meeting at Sha Tin this Sunday.
In the mile Happy Zero has been posted wide.
In the sprint California Flag has drawn box 4, while One World has been slotted out wide.
You generally want a lowish number in all the races here, but the importance of the draw is so often exaggerated.
The wide draw is not ideal for Happy Zero but in the mile the field has a good while to sort itself out before the home turn.
The draw is probably more significant iin the sprint, and it could hardly have turned out better for California Flag. Not only has he copped a gate near the rail, but Laurel Guerreiro (the only other obvious horse in the field that likes to be right on the sharp end) has been posted out wide in 13. It'll be that bit more difficult for him to mess up the American grey's rhythm.
Mixed results from today's barrier draw for the big meeting at Sha Tin this Sunday.In the mile Happy Zero has been posted wide.In the sprint California Flag has drawn box 4, while One World has been slotted out wide.You generally want a lowish number
11.50 Doncaster Hong Kong Harry was still in the mix when coming down 3 out at Ludlow. That form isn't great (let down by 2nd and 3rd) but 14/1 is just about an each-way price worth taking.
Bank = 1916.80 (not including 115 tied up ante-post) Available odds: 14/1 (1st show) My odds : 11/1 (8.33%) Kelly = 34.16 (say £17 e/w)
11.50 DoncasterHong Kong Harry was still in the mix when coming down 3 out at Ludlow. That form isn't great (let down by 2nd and 3rd) but 14/1 is just about an each-way price worth taking.Bank = 1916.80 (not including 115 tied up ante-post)Available
3.00 Lingfield Victorias Groom has shaped the last twice as if a step back to 2m 4f would suit and the ever astute Lucy Wadham is doing just that. He's won on the soft stuff before and seems now to be jumping with a lot more assurance. He takes on a small, inexperienced bunch today, which is good news in one way but also means that there may be something less exposed & ready to pounce.
Bank = 1882.80 (not incl. 115 tied-up) Available odds: 5/2 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 9/2 (30.77%) Kelly stake = 57.95 (say £60 win)
3.00 LingfieldVictorias Groom has shaped the last twice as if a step back to 2m 4f would suit and the ever astute Lucy Wadham is doing just that. He's won on the soft stuff before and seems now to be jumping with a lot more assurance. He takes on a
2.50 Fairyhouse Darbys Turn ran into some very decent novice chasers last time out. That form has worked out nicely, so at the exchange price he looks a fair price against what looks a less competitive field. He's easy to back on here but hopefully that's simply a reflection of the warmth of the fav.
Bank = 1882.80 (not incl. 175 tied-up) Available odds: 9.8 (betfair) My odds: 7/1 (12.5) Kelly = 37.07 (say £35 win)
2.50 FairyhouseDarbys Turn ran into some very decent novice chasers last time out. That form has worked out nicely, so at the exchange price he looks a fair price against what looks a less competitive field. He's easy to back on here but hopefully th
A few ante-post bets were settled today. I was wrong to think that the Japanese horse wouldn't have the gears to bustle up California Flag in the Hong Kong Sprint. CF is undoubtedly the quicker of the two, but the other horse's jockey kept on riding to ensure that the lead was contested, and after that the writing was on the wall. On the other hand, the fast pace played into the hands of One World, who finished with a rare old rattle to take 2nd and give a fair e/w return.
In the Mile Happy Zero ran a good race to fiinish 2nd but maybe didn't quite see out the trip. Good Ba Ba, trained to peak today, took him quite comfortably inside the final furlong.
Here's a full update on recent results:
old balance: £2091.25
27/11 Revelling £45 at 3/1 Lost - bank = £2046.25 28/11 Duc De Regniere £40.25 at 7/1 Lost - bank = £2006 02/12 Mr Warbucks £15 e/w at 12/1 Lost - bank = £1976 02/12 Aux Le Bahnn £60 win at 5/2 Lost - bank = £1916 04/12 California Flag £40 at 10/1 Lost - bank = £1876 04/12 One World £10 e/w at 66/1 Won £122 - bank = £1998 05/12 Somersby £40 at 4.1/1 Won £155.80 (after commission) - bank = £2153.80 06/12 Jaunty Journey £40 at 9/1 Lost - bank = £2113.80 07/12 Happy Zero £55 at 4/1 Lost - bank = £2058.80 11/12 Hong Kong Harry £17 e/w at 14/1 Lost - bank = £2024.80 12/12 Victorias Groom £60 at 5/2 Won £150 - bank = £2174.80 12/12 Darbys Turn £35 at 7.8/1 Lost - bank = £2139.80
(PS there was a typo on yesterday's post re Victorias Groom - I estimated his true odds at 9/4 and not the 9/2 posted.)
A few ante-post bets were settled today. I was wrong to think that the Japanese horse wouldn't have the gears to bustle up California Flag in the Hong Kong Sprint. CF is undoubtedly the quicker of the two, but the other horse's jockey kept on riding
RACE 5: THE CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG SPRINT - 1200M (TURF TRACK) TIME : 1440 PRIZE MONEY : HK$12000000 Horse No Horse Name Win Dividend Place Dividend 1st 1 SACRED KINGDOM $13.00 $10.00 2nd 14 ONE WORLD $14.00 3rd 13 JOY AND FUN $44.00 4th 10 GREEN BIRDIE Evens and Odds ODD $15.00 Forecast 1-14 $38.00 Place Forecast 1-14 $13.00 1-13 $29.00 13-14 $56.00 Tierce 1-14-13 $655.00 Trio 1-13-14 $202.00 Quartet 1-14-13-10 $4,219.00 ===================================================
Presumably the winner was the favourite in above race ??????
Do you ever do SFCS with FAV to beat a long odds shot bacchanal ? ( Especially when you believe a selection may well take fav on and might win etc Usually when you accept that fav has a fair chance to win other than your selection etc)
Just a small stake SFC with fav in UK can pay excellent odds etc......though looking at above "forecast" return it was not good in that race :(
Anyway ...just a brief thought!
Gl with bets.
RACE 5: THE CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG SPRINT - 1200M (TURF TRACK) TIME : 1440 PRIZE MONEY : HK$12000000 Horse No Horse Name Win Dividend Place Dividend1st 1 SACRED KINGDOM $13.00 $10.002nd 14 ONE WORLD $14.003r
12.40 Hereford No great confidence here, but San Marino is just big enough to tempt me in at 10/1. It won't be easy carrying a penalty against what looks a pretty useful field, but I thought the Exeter win was decisive enough. Whether the ground today is quite soft enough is another slight concern.
Bank = 2139.80 Available odds: 10/1 (S J , B o y l e) My odds: 17/2 (10.53%) Stake = 33.87 (say £17.40 e/w)
12.40 HerefordNo great confidence here, but San Marino is just big enough to tempt me in at 10/1. It won't be easy carrying a penalty against what looks a pretty useful field, but I thought the Exeter win was decisive enough. Whether the ground today
Cheers DFC Yeah, Sacred Kingdon was favourite - solidly backed by the Hong Kong faithful. He's able to stalk the pace and cruise to the lead, whereas One World only seems able to come with a late burst from a long way back.
I do play forecasts from time to time (not on this thread though, because I don't see an easy way to "kelly" the combinations). I play exactas rather than the CSF, and usually get invoved in smallish fields, more often than not picking something to beat the fav into 2nd.
Cheers DFC Yeah, Sacred Kingdon was favourite - solidly backed by the Hong Kong faithful. He's able to stalk the pace and cruise to the lead, whereas One World only seems able to come with a late burst from a long way back.I do play forecasts from ti
Long Walk Hurdle The big question about Karabak is whether he'll get this step up to an extended 3m. I'm prepared to excuse the Aintree form since he wouldn't be the first horse to look weary there following a tough race at the Festival. He did seem to get up the hill OK in the Ballymore behind an impressive winner, so here's hoping. Also, he has decent form at Ascot. It's one of those bets where you'd be surprised if he proved good enough to beat Big Buck's but a bit disappointed if he failed to make the frame. Lough Derg will certainly expose any stamina doubts so it's going to be all about staying.
Bank = 2105 Available odds: 12/1 (P o w e r) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Stake = 31.87 (say £15 e/w - which is just as well since P o w e r ' s max stake was literally just a few pennies more)
Long Walk HurdleThe big question about Karabak is whether he'll get this step up to an extended 3m. I'm prepared to excuse the Aintree form since he wouldn't be the first horse to look weary there following a tough race at the Festival. He did seem t
1.10 Uttoxeter Never quite know how useful bumper horses will take to hurdling, so you're always taking a bit of a chance at shortish odds. But at least we have seen that Bescott Springs can gallop, when chasing home the seriously good Peddlers Cross at Haydock recently. This isn't a bad little field so it's no good being too bullish about any perceived edge.
Bank = 2105 Available odds: 11/4 (H i l l & S J) My odds: 5/2 (28.57%) Stake = 54.63 (say £55 win)
1.10 UttoxeterNever quite know how useful bumper horses will take to hurdling, so you're always taking a bit of a chance at shortish odds. But at least we have seen that Bescott Springs can gallop, when chasing home the seriously good Peddlers Cross
Just took once glance at race and it is extremely "difficult" race to fathom!!!!!
With the going being "IN BETWEEN" soft to heavy , this makes it even harder to fathom!!!!!
If nearer HEAVY than soft, then SAMURAI WAY looks , at a glance , the obvious one to select as possible winner. However, LORD TODDY is "interesting" as well and might be one at higher odds to consider.
If going nearer SOFT, then Bescot Springs looks to have a very good chance ...at a glance against this field. Predictive has had many chances to win, and is likely to have a say in finish as should be race fit..........which makes it likely to set the pace in race to make it as tough as possible for rest........hoping its fitness will enable it to win..........However, the number of chances it has had casts a doubt on it winning against horses from good trainers that are relatively "lightly raced".
As there is this "doubt" on going, then probably the bets I would do are -
Back -
BESCOTT SPRINGS to win at 3.7 with £ 9.41 SAMURAI WAY to win at 4.3 with £ 8.10 LORD TOMNODDY to win at 14 with £ 2.49
Thus showing £ 14.83 profit on any of em winning.
As on balance the HEAVY going may be more likely, my tactics would be to -
LAY BS IR at 2s to gain £10 on lay leaving small profit on it. LAY SW at 1.54 to gain £10....... LAY LT at 1.54 to gain £10......
Just hoping your one wins with a late run to catch either SW or LT......................and at least 2 lays enable a cross over of profit .....canceling out £20 stake etc
Just doing above for an "interest" in race......hoping your one wins B......I will be canceling LAYS set if I think one of 3 is likely to be a clear winner well out......
GL with race.
Morning B.Just took once glance at race and it is extremely "difficult" race to fathom!!!!!With the going being "IN BETWEEN" soft to heavy , this makes it even harder to fathom!!!!!If nearer HEAVY than soft, then SAMURAI WAY looks , at a glance , the
BS being brought down was the sort of thing that "ruined" my plan.......an "unlucky" selection B :( but that's racing ....hope horses are OK??
Luckily I had a wee cover PLACE bet on LORD T......so that covered my loss in WIN market......thankfully! LT looked "good" for a wee while...but going was not HEAVYenough for it .....might have won otherwise!!!! DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTT
Cheers the noooooooo
BS being brought down was the sort of thing that "ruined" my plan.......an "unlucky" selection B :(but that's racing ....hope horses are OK??Luckily I had a wee cover PLACE bet on LORD T......so that covered my loss in WIN market......thankfully! LT
1.50 Huntingdon Thought Pickamus ran OK behind a well handicapped horse last time out, and we can reasonably expect one of Henry Daly's to improve over fences. The formlines are fuzzy but it doesn't look a strong novice chase.
Bank = 2050 Available odds: 10/3 (gen) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Kelly = 50.79 (say £50 win)
1.50 HuntingdonThought Pickamus ran OK behind a well handicapped horse last time out, and we can reasonably expect one of Henry Daly's to improve over fences. The formlines are fuzzy but it doesn't look a strong novice chase.Bank = 2050Available odd
Champion Hurdle (ante-post) The 2010 Champion Hurdle, based on what we saw last season & what we've seen so far this winter, is there for the taking for a new kid on the block. Zaynar is no doubt the hot one, but I can't help thinking he's a better World Hurdle prospect. Solwhit is respected but is also short enough at 6/1 after his reputation took a knock in a slowly-run race at Newcastle. At 12s Khyber Kim shouldn't be under-estimated, but can we trust Nigel Twiston-Davies to take him there fresh? Assuming Dunguib keeps to novice company, the one that sstands out at the current prices is Voler La Vedette at 20/1. She'll have to come through at least one big trial in Ireland to justify lining up (probably the Irish Champion) but she's already trounced Go Native and they must be at least quietly hopeful in the light of that horse's impressive progress since.
Bank = 2216.67 Available odds: 20/1 (H i l l) My odds: 14/1 (6.67%) Stake = 44.41 (say £45 win)
Champion Hurdle (ante-post)The 2010 Champion Hurdle, based on what we saw last season & what we've seen so far this winter, is there for the taking for a new kid on the block. Zaynar is no doubt the hot one, but I can't help thinking he's a better Wo
1.25 Leopardstown Difficult to see beyond Made In Taipan, Golden Silver & Tranquil Sea for this. The "angle" that justifies a bet for me has to be that Tranquil Sea, as a crack two and half miler, is a bit shorter than he should be over this trip. At 3/1 & 17/2 you could probably make sense of backing both the other two, but I've come down on the side of Golden Silver, whose comeback run took the eye, albeit in a much weaker race, and last year he beat the useful Forpadydeplasterer over course & distance.
Bank = 2171.67 (plus 45 tied-up ante-post) Available odds: 3/1 (P o w e r) My odds: 11/4 (26.67%) Stake = 48.36 (say £50.67 win)
1.25 LeopardstownDifficult to see beyond Made In Taipan, Golden Silver & Tranquil Sea for this. The "angle" that justifies a bet for me has to be that Tranquil Sea, as a crack two and half miler, is a bit shorter than he should be over this trip. At
3.20 Chepstow Looks a pretty hot novice hurdle, but I'm not sure dual bumper winning Dingat should be as high as 16/1, although much of course will depend on how he takes to jumping.
Bank = 2323.68 Available odds: 16/1 (gen) My odds: 12/1 (7.69%) Stake = 44.63 (say £22.50 ew)
Away for a few days so unlikely to be posting much before the new year. Seasonal greetings to all.
3.20 ChepstowLooks a pretty hot novice hurdle, but I'm not sure dual bumper winning Dingat should be as high as 16/1, although much of course will depend on how he takes to jumping.Bank = 2323.68Available odds: 16/1 (gen)My odds: 12/1 (7.69%)Stake =
**van Barneveld v Simon Whitlock I'm a big fan of Simon Whitlock and earnestly hope he gives Barney a great game tonight. I'm conscious, however, that he has faltered before in the really big games and the odds about the been-there done-that Barney winning big look quite generous.
Bank = 2278.68 (+ 45 tied-up ante-post)
Barneveld to win 6-0 Available odds: 50/1 (T o t e) My odds: 40/1 (2.44%) Stake = 11.14 (say £10)
Barneveld to win 6-1 Available odds: 20/1 (gen) My odds: 18/1 (5.26%) Stake = 11.92 (say £10)
**van Barneveld v Simon WhitlockI'm a big fan of Simon Whitlock and earnestly hope he gives Barney a great game tonight. I'm conscious, however, that he has faltered before in the really big games and the odds about the been-there done-that Barney wi
BDO darts: Adams v Gurney Thought Daryl Gurney looked OK when going down 4-2 against Adams this time last year, but at a best price of 12/5 on the high street he's not exactly great value to turn the tables tonight against a consistent opponent. At 3.8 and drifting, the betfair price is much more appealing.
If he does win, however, I expect it to be quite close, so I'm more interested in the 13/2 about 4-3 and the 10/1 about 4-2. In the first round Gurney won all but one of his 13 legs on his fifth (6 legs) or sixth (6 legs) visit to the oche. A repeat of that ought to produce a fairly close encounter.
Bank = 2258.68 (plus £40 tied-up ante-post)
Gurney to win 4-3 Available odds: 13/2 (gen) My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Stake = 24.93 (say £25)
Gurney to win 4-2 Available odds: 10/1 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 9/1 (10%) Stake = 22.59 (say £20.68)
BDO darts: Adams v GurneyThought Daryl Gurney looked OK when going down 4-2 against Adams this time last year, but at a best price of 12/5 on the high street he's not exactly great value to turn the tables tonight against a consistent opponent. At 3.
Super Bowl A short-lived bet, no doubt, but I can't resist a few quid on rank outsiders New York Jets to lift the Super Bowl the hard way (on the road) at 45/1. They're one dimensional, they lack finesse and they have an iffy QB. So why? Because they have a strong defence & come into the play offs on a roll, conceding just 47pts in their last six games. The colder weather should help them too.
Bank = 2213 (plus 45 tied-up) Available odds: 45/1 (betfair) My odds: 33/1 (2.94%) Stake = 17.33 (say £15 win)
Super BowlA short-lived bet, no doubt, but I can't resist a few quid on rank outsiders New York Jets to lift the Super Bowl the hard way (on the road) at 45/1. They're one dimensional, they lack finesse and they have an iffy QB. So why? Because they
Forget to account for commission in the calculation (which would have given a stake of £14.82). No damage done, since £15 would still have been the adjustment.
Whoops! Forget to account for commission in the calculation (which would have given a stake of £14.82). No damage done, since £15 would still have been the adjustment.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: 1st touchdown With the sometimes shaky Patriots unbeaten at home this season, they're more likely to score the first touchown tonight. A passing TD is also more likely than a rushing TD (Baltimore, I think, have allowed only 8 on the ground all season).
Randy Moss is the obvious target, and 13/2 at S k y b e t isn't a terrible price about him. But with Wes Welker out injured, I'm having a couple of speculative stabs at the tight ends Ben Watson & Chris Baker. They haven't been prolific (just 7 TDs between them) but the odds of course reflect that.
Bank = 2198 (not incl 45 + 15 tied-up elsewhere)
Ben Watson available odds: 18/1 (L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Stake = 14.31 (say £15)
Chris Baker available odds: 66/1 (L a d bro k e s) My odds: 50/1 (1.96%) Stake = 10.43 (say £10)
When these teams met earlier in the season the Ravens scored the first TD and the Patriots scored twice on the ground - so expect the unexpected!
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: 1st touchdownWith the sometimes shaky Patriots unbeaten at home this season, they're more likely to score the first touchown tonight. A passing TD is also more likely than a rushing TD (Baltimore, I think, hav
After backing the New York Jets for the Super Bowl at 45/1, the opportunity now arises to lay off at 24/1. They face a very difficult task on the road against the Chargers this w/end.
I think, though, that I'll wait until kick off before deciding how to proceed. Their game is the last of the divisional championships, and a surprise in one or more of the other games could shake up the market a bit more, although I'd expect San Diego's price to contract a good deal more than New York's.
Bank = 2173 (plus 15 + 45 tied-up)
After backing the New York Jets for the Super Bowl at 45/1, the opportunity now arises to lay off at 24/1. They face a very difficult task on the road against the Chargers this w/end. I think, though, that I'll wait until kick off before deciding ho
With Joncol left out of the Gold Cup entries, a bet at 10/1 is now justified for his only other possible engagement at the Festival. They may of course decide to keep him at home until next season, but assuming he runs a decent race in the Irish Hennessy we can reasonably expect them to come over for the Ryanair (he will be entered, according to the trainer).
He travelled best of all in the Lexus over 3 miles at Leopardstown before fading late on. He may yet develop into a winning 3 miler at the highest level but for the time being the stiff 2 miles 5 furlongs of the Ryanair looks just his ticket.
It's going to be a tough renewal this year, as good horses seek to avoid Kauto Star & Denman in the Gold Cup, notably Barbers Shop And there are some fair youngsters coming through the ranks (Poquelin, Tranquil Sea).
Bank = 2173 (plus 15 + 45 tied-up) Available odds: 10/1 (S t a n J a m e s, L a d b r o k e s) My odds: 8/1 (11.11%) Stake = 48.26 (say £50 win)
(NB when I rang L a d b r o k e s they wouldn't lay a bet, claiming the market had been suspended...)
Cheltenham Festival: Ryanair ChaseWith Joncol left out of the Gold Cup entries, a bet at 10/1 is now justified for his only other possible engagement at the Festival. They may of course decide to keep him at home until next season, but assuming he ru
4.25 Ffos Las Some interesting newcomers here, but Our Aodh sets a fair standard for them all to reach for and is probably worth a bet at 9/2.
Bank = 2123 (+110 tied-up) Available odds: 9/2 (S t a n J , B l u e S q) My odds: 4/1 (20%) Stake (incl 5% commission) = 47.18 (say £45 win)
4.25 Ffos LasSome interesting newcomers here, but Our Aodh sets a fair standard for them all to reach for and is probably worth a bet at 9/2.Bank = 2123 (+110 tied-up)Available odds: 9/2 (S t a n J , B l u e S q)My odds: 4/1 (20%)Stake (incl 5% comm
With no favours forthcoming in the other games (a Ravens win in Indy's backyard would have been especially nice), I think we'll just let the small New York Jets bet ride for the time being.
With no favours forthcoming in the other games (a Ravens win in Indy's backyard would have been especially nice), I think we'll just let the small New York Jets bet ride for the time being.
Good to see the Jets stick to their game plan there - great effort.
3.25 Thurles Was quite impressed with Jagoes Mills' first run over fences at Navan behind a couple of decent horses. At these prices the favourite is worth taking on given its form over fences so far (tipped up last time out). The niggling doubt is the trip because the fav has already shown in his career that he stays very well.
Bank = 2178 Available odds: 7/2 ( V i c t o r C ) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Stake = 77.79 (say £78 win)
Good to see the Jets stick to their game plan there - great effort.3.25 ThurlesWas quite impressed with Jagoes Mills' first run over fences at Navan behind a couple of decent horses. At these prices the favourite is worth taking on given its form ove
1.40 Newcastle Wymott sets a good standard here, but with The Knoxs also pretty short there are some nice e/w prices about one or two potentially interesting newcomers, and the one that catches the eye is Bel Hugo, a full brother to Arturio, who was good enough to run in the Jewson. Of course we know nothing about him and it's a tough call to go 3m first time up, but the trainer at least thinks he's OK.
Bank = 2451 Available odds: 33/1 ( S t a n J a m e s ) My odds: 20/1 (4.76%) Stake = 45.93 (say £20 e/w)
1.40 NewcastleWymott sets a good standard here, but with The Knoxs also pretty short there are some nice e/w prices about one or two potentially interesting newcomers, and the one that catches the eye is Bel Hugo, a full brother to Arturio, who was g
The going being "in between" ( SOFT - HEAVY IN PLACES) makes this race very very difficult to guess on.
As it is NOVICE CLASS 3 race I would be looking at younger horses ...say 5 yods ...to see if any might figure in finish....especially if SOFT going.......the HEAVY aspect may stop them winning though....Just a very difficult race T.
PLAYING THE FIELD is "interesting" as first time over hurdles.....has some French breeding in it and from a family of staying chase type horses..........so going might be fine for it. So having small ew on that one ...
What puts me off race is fact there are owners with more than 1 horse in race......always tends to put me off race........I know this happens all the time in better class races , but I just it a "confusing" factor.
Not putting much on this race , as just a very competitive race on "in between" going......but your one appears worth a shout at good odds so having small bet on that too.........as well as on owner's other horse!!!!
GL T
The going being "in between" ( SOFT - HEAVY IN PLACES) makes this race very very difficult to guess on.As it is NOVICE CLASS 3 race I would be looking at younger horses ...say 5 yods ...to see if any might figure in finish....especially if SOFT going
2.30 Taunton With plenty of money for Wishfull Thinking this morning, the drifting Express Leader is now worth a bet at 10/3. The money horse was quite impressive last time out, but he's penalised for that, and the Nicholls horse ran in a better race when 3rd at Chepstow over xmas. He's a strong puller and his stamina gave way in the last quarter mile there; hopefully Christian Williams can hold on to him for a bit longer on this slightly better ground.
Bank = 2411 Available odds: 10/1 (P o w e r) My odds: 3/1 (25%) Stake = 59.73 (say £60 win)
2.30 TauntonWith plenty of money for Wishfull Thinking this morning, the drifting Express Leader is now worth a bet at 10/3. The money horse was quite impressive last time out, but he's penalised for that, and the Nicholls horse ran in a better race
Unfortuantley P o w e r wld only lay me to lose £100 (to a £30 stake) so I've had to top up on here and luckily got most of it on at 4.5:
Express Leader 4 £0.54 £1.62 Ref: 9917719495 Bet matched:10:50 21-Jan-10
4.5 £4.46 £15.61 Ref: 9917685463 Bet matched:10:36 21-Jan-10
4.5 £10.66 £37.31 Ref: 9917685018 Bet matched:10:36 21-Jan-10
4.5 £14.34 £50.19 Ref: 9917685018 Bet matched:10:36 21-Jan-10
sorry Lori, yes 10/3! 10/1 - we can dream.Unfortuantley P o w e r wld only lay me to lose £100 (to a £30 stake) so I've had to top up on here and luckily got most of it on at 4.5:Express Leader 4 £0.54 £1.62Ref: 9917719495 Bet
Irish Arkle, Leopardstown (Sunday) Sports Line produced a very smooth fencing debut at Navan back in November and at 4/1 is a tempting price for Sunday's big novice chase. Take The Breeze is respected on heavy ground, but Ruby has decided to ride Willie's horse, and I suspect they're quite sweet on him. Zaarito looked good over a longer trip recently but Sam Adams and Browns Bailey have both run since and done nothing for the form. I'd be more concerned about Major Finnegan who may be worth a little saver on the day.
Bank = 2351 Available odds: 4/1 ( L a d b r o k e s ) My odds: 10/3 (23.08%) Stake = 90.51 (say £90 win)
Irish Arkle, Leopardstown (Sunday)Sports Line produced a very smooth fencing debut at Navan back in November and at 4/1 is a tempting price for Sunday's big novice chase. Take The Breeze is respected on heavy ground, but Ruby has decided to ride Will
Dear old Sports Line, I can barely recall a horse travelling and jumping so fluently, and coming away second best!
3.20 Fontwell Princely Hero was staying on last time out and may improve for this extra couple of furlongs. It's a tough race, of course, and they may have to set their sights lower, but at 33/1 on here it's is worth a small bet.
Bank = 2261 Available odds: 33/1 My odds: 25/1 (3.85%) Stake (incl commission): 17.70 (say £10 win and £10 place at 7)
Dear old Sports Line, I can barely recall a horse travelling and jumping so fluently, and coming away second best!3.20 FontwellPrincely Hero was staying on last time out and may improve for this extra couple of furlongs. It's a tough race, of course,
4.00 Sedgefield Don't often get involved in unraced individuals, but if Mocha is as good as James Ewart thinks, she really ought to be up to winning a mares bumper at Sedgefield.
Bank = 2241 Available odds: 3/1 (b e t 3 6 5) My odds: 9/4 (30.77%) Stake = 172.41 (say £170 win)
a shocking effort, DFC.4.00 SedgefieldDon't often get involved in unraced individuals, but if Mocha is as good as James Ewart thinks, she really ought to be up to winning a mares bumper at Sedgefield.Bank = 2241Available odds: 3/1 (b e t 3 6 5)My odd
Yet another difficult race B. MARES only ......so this factor makes it harder to weigh up.
The weight factor on the going favours 4 yods........and SALLY'S IDEA is "interesting" now running further than when finishing 4th first time out.
However, MOCHA , being French bred does stand out in a poor field of runners.
Just doing small bets on above 2...to win....
GL with this one looks a "good" bet.
Yet another difficult race B. MARES only ......so this factor makes it harder to weigh up.The weight factor on the going favours 4 yods........and SALLY'S IDEA is "interesting" now running further than when finishing 4th first time out.However, MOC
WALOFS - the worst selection on this thread by a country mile.
1.50 Huntingdon This looks a poor race. Henderson usually has his horses well schooled, and his Great Reason is the clear each-way challenger to Mille Chief. The latter should of course win, and Alan King's yard is finally where it should be, but I don't usually mind taking on penalised juveniles in older company.
Bank = 2041 Available odds: 5/1 ( B e t 3 6 5 , S t a n J a m e s ) My odds: 9/2 (18.18%) Stake = 37.06 (say £20 e/w)
WALOFS - the worst selection on this thread by a country mile.1.50 HuntingdonThis looks a poor race. Henderson usually has his horses well schooled, and his Great Reason is the clear each-way challenger to Mille Chief. The latter should of course win
Cheltenham Special Dunguib's SP in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle to be 13/8 or bigger (7/1 at P o w e r). (non runner no bet)
The key race is the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown on 7 February. Decent animals may dodge Dunguib here, but the early entries suggest we can expect a much stronger field than we saw in the Royal Bond. Look how deplorably Some Present & Sweeps Hill ran at the Xmas Festival and it doesn't take long to write off the Royal Bond as a poor Gd 1.
If Dunguib slams everything in the Deloitte, and they decide to stick to the novice route, he'll be sent off the shortest Supreme Novices fav in a generation and this bet will go down.
But if he's made to work hard, and people start to question his jumping or the wisdom of sticking with his inexperienced rider, there's a fair chance he'll start shorter than 13/8. In the last 20 years just one horse has been sent off shorter than that (Youlneverwalkalone in 2000).
Bank = 2071 Available odds: 7/1 My odds: 6/1 (14.29%) Stake = 42.37 (say £40)
Cheltenham SpecialDunguib's SP in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle to be 13/8 or bigger (7/1 at P o w e r).(non runner no bet)The key race is the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown on 7 February. Decent animals may dodge Dunguib here, but the early entries s
3.40 Ffos Las Swincombe Rock has drifted out to a backable price on here, possibly due to David Pipe's success so far today: his horse in this race was backed this morning. The Alner horse is inexperienced but has run so far as if a step up to 3m should suit and he's been given what looks a fair mark for his 1st hcap.
Bank = 2031 Available odds: 5.9 My odds: 4/1 (20%) Stake (incl 5% commission) = 57.16 (say £50 win)
3.40 Ffos LasSwincombe Rock has drifted out to a backable price on here, possibly due to David Pipe's success so far today: his horse in this race was backed this morning. The Alner horse is inexperienced but has run so far as if a step up to 3m shou
3.15 Newbury Backed a few horses recently expecting them to improve for a step up in trip, but they've run deplorably. Here we are again today with Aim For The Stars, who's also been shaping as if 3m is what he wants. Even if it is, this company may yet prove too hot, but I think he's worth a small bet at 20/1.
Bank = 1981 (+135 tied-up) Odds: 20/1 (3 6 5 , F r e d) My odds: 16/1 (5.88%) Stake = 23.26 (say £10 e/w)
3.15 NewburyBacked a few horses recently expecting them to improve for a step up in trip, but they've run deplorably. Here we are again today with Aim For The Stars, who's also been shaping as if 3m is what he wants. Even if it is, this company may y
We can't be sure that Whodoyouthink will turn up at Leopardstown on Sunday, but the indications following his runaway win at the Xmas Festival have always been that he'd give it a go, unless the ground came up very heavy. The ground isn't quite that bad (yet!) and at 28/1 with 3 places up for grabs it's worth a speculative each-way bet now. He was quite impressive last time out, and it's high time something put Dunguib's jumping under pressure.
Bank = 1961 (plus 135 tied-up ante-post) Available odds: 28/1 ( H i l l ) My odds: 20/1 (4.76%) Stake = 26.64 (say £13 e/w)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle, Leopardstown (Sunday)We can't be sure that Whodoyouthink will turn up at Leopardstown on Sunday, but the indications following his runaway win at the Xmas Festival have always been that he'd give it a go, unless the ground cam
1.20 Doncaster They couldn't have found a much more difficult novice chase, but Emperor Concerto was impressive enough on his fencing debut last time out to justify a small interest at 12.5 on here.
Bank = 1935 Available odds: 12.5 (betfair) My odds: 10/1 (9.09%) Stake (incl 5% commission): 14.87 (say £15 win)
1.20 DoncasterThey couldn't have found a much more difficult novice chase, but Emperor Concerto was impressive enough on his fencing debut last time out to justify a small interest at 12.5 on here.Bank = 1935Available odds: 12.5 (betfair)My odds: 10/
2.50 Lingfield Interesting novice chase. Chariot Charger & Great Endeavour were decent over hurdlles but haven't yet delivered what seemed likely when put over fences. That leaves two iffy jumpers Backbenscher and Nomechki, and its the latter who (when he's remained upright) has shown a touch of class, and at 3/1 is worth a bet to defy the penalties.
Bank = 1920 Available odds: 3/1 ( C o r a l ) My odds: 11/4 (26.67%) Stake = 42.75 (say £40 win)
2.50 LingfieldInteresting novice chase. Chariot Charger & Great Endeavour were decent over hurdlles but haven't yet delivered what seemed likely when put over fences. That leaves two iffy jumpers Backbenscher and Nomechki, and its the latter who (whe
4.40 Huntingdon Some decent yards represented here, but Brixen sets a decent standard on her strong staying effort on the fibresand at Southwell last time, in a manner that suggested she'd act OK on soft turf.
Bank = 1880 Available odds: 8.8 (betfair) My odds: 13/2 (13.33%) Stake (incl commission) = 30.71 (say £30 win)
4.40 HuntingdonSome decent yards represented here, but Brixen sets a decent standard on her strong staying effort on the fibresand at Southwell last time, in a manner that suggested she'd act OK on soft turf.Bank = 1880Available odds: 8.8 (betfair)My
1.35 Bangor Wasn't expecting to get involved in this but the 7/1 is a little on the generous side about My Shamwari, who ran OK in a much stronger race at Newbury last time, despite pulling hard. The Henderson favourite here may well be good enough, but he's no Master of the Hall.
Bank =1850 Availble odds: 7/1 ( F r e d ) My odds: 6/1( 14.29%) Stake = 37.85 (say £20 e/w)
1.35 BangorWasn't expecting to get involved in this but the 7/1 is a little on the generous side about My Shamwari, who ran OK in a much stronger race at Newbury last time, despite pulling hard. The Henderson favourite here may well be good enough,
3.00 Exeter Najaf has the French form to win this but has to adapt to English conditions. Maggio was running a fairly decent horse close last time out when coming down at the last flight, and also gets a bit of weight from most of these.
Bank = 1858 Available odds: 11/1 My odds: 9/1 (10%) Stake = 33.78 (say £15 e/w)
3.00 ExeterNajaf has the French form to win this but has to adapt to English conditions. Maggio was running a fairly decent horse close last time out when coming down at the last flight, and also gets a bit of weight from most of these.Bank = 1858Ava
Supreme Novices Hurdle, 16 March Never be afraid to take on one horse and all that. Oscar Whisky is still a generous 16/1 for a horse that's never been off the bridle in the course of an unblemished career. And who knows, they may yet see sense and put Dunguib in the Champion!
Bank = 1828 Available odds: 16/1 (gen) My odds: 12/1 (7.69%) Kelly = 35.11 (say 17.50 e/w)
Supreme Novices Hurdle, 16 MarchNever be afraid to take on one horse and all that. Oscar Whisky is still a generous 16/1 for a horse that's never been off the bridle in the course of an unblemished career. And who knows, they may yet see sense and pu
ttt Just been searching through threads on kelly staking and this one has been a good read baccy. Been thinking of trying it myself but find it difficult sometimes to come up with a price. e.g. a couple of weeks ago backed a horse that had switched trainer since his last run. On his best form for previous trainer he'd have had a stone or more in hand of his mark but he had become very disappointing and on his most recent efforts he had little chance. The horse drifted right out and I only had a small interest.
The question is would I be best to price up the horses chance on his best form and hope the trainer has him back to his best or would I be better pricing him up somewhere in bewtween his best form and his more recent poor form?
tttJust been searching through threads on kelly staking and this one has been a good read baccy. Been thinking of trying it myself but find it difficult sometimes to come up with a price. e.g. a couple of weeks ago backed a horse that had switched tr
For years I have just been betting with my instincts and I study the form look at the prices and something just stands out and it has worked pretty well but recently I thought I would try putting in ratings I thought each runner would produce on the day and have a spreadsheet that works out the prices.
For instance Quevega came out as a 1/3 chance today, mainly because I had the other fav in that race as being flattered by the win over Go Native and on her other form I felt she had a stone to find with Quevega. Although you could argue she was capable of better than that.
The problem is trying to come up with a rating for each runner especially when they haven't run on similar ground or over the distance before and you have to make a guess.
Anyway don't want to ruin the thread by rambling on, so good luck with the chelters bets bacchannal, I'll look in again in another time to see how you are getting on.
yes that is probably best tobermory.For years I have just been betting with my instincts and I study the form look at the prices and something just stands out and it has worked pretty well but recently I thought I would try putting in ratings I thoug
Sorry lads, not long returned from the Festival. Sadly no joy for the selections on this thread, with two of the five not showing up! Oscar Whisky, 4th at 16/1 e/w went closest, and might have made the money with a slicker round of jumping.
Steve G, if you made Quevega a 1/3 shot, Kelly would have guided you to staking 58% of your bank, assuming available odds of 6/4. As you probably know, she traded a good deal bigger than that in the run-up to the race.
You'd have been richly rewarded, but of course 58% is a massive short-term commitment.
Doing your own ratings is undoubtedly a sound way of pricing up your own book, but will also demand a big investment of time.
You could refine your long-held "instinctive" approach by experimenting with Kelly: eg when a price stands out as being generous, say 10/1, have a look at what Kelly would suggest at a range of shorter odds, as follows:
9/1 = stake 1% of bank 8/1 = stake 2.2% of bank 7/1 = stake 3.75% of bank 6/1 = stake 5.7% of bank
At shorter odds, say you think 7/2 is a generous price. Kelly would suggest you stake as follows, if "your odds" are:
3/1= stake 3.6% bank 11/4 = stake 5.7% of bank 5/2 = stake 8.2% of bank 9/4 = stake 11% of bank (I've rounded these to one decimal pace)
As you can see, if your betting is generally concentrated at the shorter end of the market, there is much less margin for error.
But I'd recommend some experimentation to see how Kelly suits you, perhaps with a small bank set aside.
It may not suit you at all, or you may find it can be adapted to your own style. Or maybe, like me, you'll find that it works just fine the way it is. I am probably a lot more conservative than most in my assessment of "true odds" (a bad phrase this because we can't know the truth), and this has meant that I have seldom had to stake huge percentages of my bank. Only once did I stake over 10%.
I'm going to start winding this thread down now, with a final balance at £1753. Having turned 1000 into 2000 it would have been good to kick on towards 4000 but it wasn't to be. Even so, I am now sure that a Kelly-based staking system is right for me, whilst accepting that it is definitely not the way forward for others.
Thanks to everyone who has taken part in this exercise, and for your constructive approach. Thanks in particular to the supporters (you know who you are), and all the very best in your future punting.
Sorry lads, not long returned from the Festival. Sadly no joy for the selections on this thread, with two of the five not showing up! Oscar Whisky, 4th at 16/1 e/w went closest, and might have made the money with a slicker round of jumping.Steve G, i
A very enjoyable thread and seems a wise time to conclude it so you can go about your business now you're happy with where you're at.
Thanks for posting :)
Well done bacchanal.A very enjoyable thread and seems a wise time to conclude it so you can go about your business now you're happy with where you're at.Thanks for posting :)
Thanks for the detainled reply bacchanal, looking at those percentages the staking plan certainly does appeal to me. I shall look into it some more. cheers.
Thanks for the detainled reply bacchanal, looking at those percentages the staking plan certainly does appeal to me. I shall look into it some more. cheers.