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schalke
you have bet on 83/84 random events to win 56% ROI and sometime staking nearly 30-40% of your bank. This is terrible risk management. You are taking too high a risk for the return you are targeting. Tobemory. Any sport is a random event with infinte number of variables (football has more than most making it a tough nut to crack) |
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tobermory ...
I have been saying that for ages but no-one listens, what the individual bet makes does not interest me, it's what all the bets accumulate that interests me |
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that maybe the case schalke but your staking level means that the risk you are taking far outweighs the returns you are getting.
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d13phe ...
I don't know where you are getting your figures from but I have not ONCE staked more than 20% of my bank .... |
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£356 on one bet from a bank of £1000 on the Sunderland game??
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£356 on one bet from a bank of £1000 on the Sunderland game??
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Do you even have a staking plan or is it adhoc?
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d13phe,does the term "banging your head against a brick wall" mean anything ?
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btw im not aiming to criticise you
your good at what you do but you could be a lot better |
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i always try to help where possible frames
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Well al say two things about that then ........
£200 of that £356 is the "bank" money, the rest being winnings .... so then, if you are counting the winnings in the "bank" then the total bank is £1541 at that bet |
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anyway
im off to eat my curry. when it all goes t1ts up and you wonder what went wrong. read my comments and think about a stragey that balances both risk and reward. something the so called "95%" can't do gl |
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Any sport is a random event with infinte number of variables
Yes, Blackburn could still win 9-1 . But the chances of there doing so can be estimated by past results between teams of similar abilty . The 1.02 on this game was a good bet, at Home to a Bottom Half side with 15 mins to HT and 1-0 up , i cannot remember the last time Chelsea were losing at HT, going back several yerars and 100+ matches . If Schalke gets a good profit in the long term he will have been making good bets regardless of what the average odds were . Of course people may disagre over what constitutes 'long term' but the main problem at low odds is the better the bets he chooses the less chance he has of being fully matched , so he will be staking less on the good value bets and the max on the poor value , which is the opposite of the ideal. |
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It can't go t!ts up ... it's already in profit
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next bet: Under 1.5 goals - S.Gijon v R.Madrid @ 1.01/.02 - £320 to win £4.75 while 0-0 @ 40:45
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hope thats a HT bet ;)
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yeah lol, thats first time av forgot the 1H ...
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£1000 Bank ----- Total Won: £568.19 ----- Total Lost: £0 ----- Most Winners in a row: 82
Bank 1: £200 ----- Bank 2: £300 ----- Bank 3: £500 81. Under 1.5 goals 1H - Wolves v A.Villa @ 1.03 - £225.34 to win £6.42 - WON 82. A.Villa or draw v Wolves @ 1.01 - £297 to win £2.85 - WON 83. Under 4.5 goals - Hannover v Stuttgart @ 1.01 - £48.99 to win £0.47 - WON 84. Birmingham to bt Sunderland @ 1.05 (1.06) - £357 to win £20.35 - WON 85. Chelsea or draw v Blackburn @ HT @ 1.02 - £166.86 to win £2.94 - WON Next bet: £360 ----- Total Won: £568.19 Total Banked: £408.19 ----- Total profit/Loss if next bet loses: + £208.19 ©Schalke 04© |
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next bet: Under 2.5 goals - S.Gijon v R.Madrid @ 1.02 - £360 to win £6.84 while 0-0 @ 82:00
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the last bet was a good one.................but why wait until it reaches 1.02 ? You do my head in :)
you must be watching the game and had this bet in mind from 60 mins onwards..................so why not place it then? Under 2.5 goals looked likely from 60 min mark, ok there is obviously more chance of 3 goals in half an hour than there is in 10mins...............but if you are getting 1.12 (I wasn't watching the market), but say 1.12 is a much better price than 1.02! If you had placed the bet at 1.12, you would not need to stake as much and you would get alot more respect on here...........but £600 in a month is impressive, but can you do it EVERY month? that is the question.............if you can you will be the luckiest Man on BF and no1 could fault ya.....................Good Luck |
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I.quit.my.job
need to check thread title ;) |
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next bet: Under 1.5 goals 1H - Sevilla v Espanyol @ 1.01 - £360 to win £3.42 while 0-0 @ 41:30
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Yup, check the thread title ... I am betting on short odds, and I can't believe you are saying to back Unders in a Madrid game @ 60 mins @ 1.12 ... not a good idea in my book so I waited till near the end and 1.02 with 8 mins to go was a good bet.
I will not bet at 1.12 or anything like it because they lose more often that 1.01-1.05's .... The only way I would have taken the bet you suggested is to back at 1.12 and then lay off straight away for a .01 or .02 profit ... but am not going to do the trading on this thread |
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well the thread title is just silly :) it's like saying I can make money with some good bets but instead of getting the best possible returns, I'm going to wait until all the value has gone and make less money.........also in the process giving the 1.01 layers some free money when the inevitable bullet strikes
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Madrid away from home, Gijon defending well...........if Madrid scored they would sit on it...........No Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuain or Nistelrooy.......nah
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the bullet may well be inevitable on this thread
though there is a case that , due to people 'going green' , there is value late on at the 1.05 or less level Wouldn't fancy it myself mind |
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£1000 Bank ----- Total Won: £583.20 ----- Total Lost: £0 ----- Most Winners in a row: 85
Bank 1: £200 ----- Bank 2: £300 ----- Bank 3: £500 84. Birmingham to bt Sunderland @ 1.05 (1.06) - £357 to win £20.35 - WON 85. Chelsea or draw v Blackburn @ HT @ 1.02 - £166.86 to win £2.94 - WON 86. Under 1.5 goals - S.Gijon v R.Madrid @ 1.01/.02 - £320 to win £4.75 - WON 87. Under 2.5 goals - S.Gijon v R.Madrid @ 1.02 - £360 to win £6.84 - WON 88. Under 1.5 goals 1H - Sevilla v Espanyol @ 1.01 - £360 to win £3.42 - WON Next bet: £365 ----- Total Won: £583.20 Total Banked: £418.20 ----- Total profit/Loss if next bet loses: + £218.20 ©Schalke 04© |
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I quit my job
Thats just like saying Back Man Utd to beat Liverpool now instead of waiting till the end of the game, the fact is mate is that you don't know whats going to happen in a game of football but I tell you right now, the reason I don't get that many losing bets is cause I wait till the end I am not going to change. Once you start going for bigger prices thats when you start to lose |
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Madrid never sit on anything lol ... they just go for goals goals goals
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Not that you didn't lose on 1.0x bets before...
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whats a 1.0x bet?
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there is value in all prices I agree but it seems that Schalke is waiting for his bets to reach a certain level before investing................what I'm saying is he must have the same bet in mind minutes before he actually places it..........I may be wrong and he may just switch on the game with minutes to go and bet the next random sub 1.05 shot
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It's not the price I concentrate on mate, it's the time of the match and if I think that the bets suits the time of the match and whats going on then I will take it .... but I will agree partly with what you saying as lets say there was a 1.07 or 1.08 that I clearly though should be a 1.05 then it would be hard to refuse
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hate it when people come on this thread and then don't explain something they wrote .... delz said a 1.0x bet, anyone want to enlighten me what he means?
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presumably 1.01-1.09
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Exactly. Not that he didn't know though. Better playing the fool than to admit previous challenges didn't work out as expected, eh?
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Once you start going for bigger prices thats when you start to lose
Is this why you bet 1.01s, the fear of losing? you cannot win every single bet, no1 can and never will I have the same problem, I hate losing a bet, being wrong, being behind all day, etc.........It's all part of the education on here, you have to accept the losses and losing runs and is something I'm trying to get better at...........it's not about winning the next bet, today and or even the week, it's about being infront come the end of the season you are going to say that's what this thread is all about - the long-term..........but I think you need the buzz of being right (a winner)....................and the best way to be right most of the time and get plenty of buzzes is bet 1.01s anyway enough of BF it's MOTD time................good luck |
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Of course, they are not all going to win .... but you put 1.0x, am I supposed to be a mind reader what the x meant?
Of course 1.01-1.05's lose but not as many compared to severly increased odds |
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I.quit.my.job 24 Oct 22:17
Once you start going for bigger prices thats when you start to lose Is this why you bet 1.01s, the fear of losing? you cannot win every single bet, no1 can and never will I have the same problem, I hate losing a bet, being wrong, being behind all day, etc.........It's all part of the education on here, you have to accept the losses and losing runs and is something I'm trying to get better at...........it's not about winning the next bet, today and or even the week, it's about being infront come the end of the season you are going to say that's what this thread is all about - the long-term..........but I think you need the buzz of being right (a winner)....................and the best way to be right most of the time and get plenty of buzzes is bet 1.01s anyway enough of BF it's MOTD time................good luck Why do people like you just mention 1.01's, I do do 1.02-1.05's as well .... I know you can't win every single bet but I get more of a buzz winning a 1.01-1.05 than I do sweating on a 5/1 shot .... The reason I bet on 1.01-1.05's is simple, because not many lose and it is VERY easy to make a profit from it, thats the main goal doing this, simply to make profit ! If it were constantly losing then I simply would not be doing it, I am not one for completely wasting my money .... You are right about one thing, it's all about being in front, thats all I'm interested in .... normal betting doesn't interest me and it's to hard to constantly win money with good capital behind you, but the difference is I can turn £200 into something good on here |
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I do think its fair to say fear of losing individual bets are a factor for those drawn towards very short odds
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