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samirs last go

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Replies: 52
By:
nasri
When: 07 Mar 10 17:49
bet 1 LAY stagecoach emerald £3 @ 90 18:05 wolv WON bank = £1002.88
bet 2 LAY oceans minstrel £2 @ 160 18:45 meydan WON bank = £1004.80
bet 3 LAY nesno £3 @ 75 19:35 wolv WON bank = £1007.68
bet 4 LAY west ham v bolton 0-3 £2 @ 120 WON bank = 1009.60
bet 5 LAY arsenal v burnley 0-1 £3 @ 75 WON bank = 1012.48
bet 6 LAY wolves v man u 2-0 £5 @ 95 WON bank = £1017.28
bet 7 LAY everton v hull 0-2 £5 @ 85 WON bank = £1022.08
bet 8 LAY chelsea v stoke 0-2 £3 @ 120 WON bank = 1024.96
By:
nasri
When: 07 Mar 10 17:56
bet 9 LAY inter v genoa 1-3 £5 @ 140 ???
By:
nasri
When: 07 Mar 10 19:01
i kno theres not many people have faith in this challenge, but if it were u wud u continue doing what im doing or try and win £10+ per bet rather that 2-3 bets to make £10?
By:
McChicken_Sandwich
When: 07 Mar 10 19:55
If it was my last shot...... and I was a mug (no offense but you seem to be one)..... I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory going for a big win, than being wiped out on my 42nd 1.01 shot.

I wouldn't like to die such a dull death.
By:
nathanrh
When: 07 Mar 10 19:58
I think the people who don't have any faith in your challenge have probably at one point in time tried much the same thing as you ;-).

One of my early systems involved laying long shot horses, in the range (40-50/1) using a set of selection criteria, after something like 80 small wins in a row I was sat on a tidy profit, eventually a 60/1 shot conspired to win in a US race & a few days later a 40/1 shot landed, without some kind of proven 'edge' over time, this will be the fate of your system.

The problem is as a punter, the feeling of winning many times is addictive, when you pay your first 120/1 shot lay you'll discover this ;-).
By:
nasri
When: 07 Mar 10 20:02
so whats the advice nathan? shud i just go for the £10 bets then?
By:
nathanrh
When: 07 Mar 10 20:40
nasri.

My advice, for what its worth.

i). Focus on the one or two areas ONLY that you have good knowledge of, (for me those are horse racing and football, might well be the same for you). No looking for bets at 2am when theres nothing else to do.

ii). Develop for yourself a system, try to think of angle(s) that others may have overlooked, watch the market reactions to various events without having money at stake. 1 other thing I found really useful was to look back through my biggest losing bets, hint: some of the worst ones were short priced 'certainties', try to resist the urge to make those kind of bets again and again ;-).

iii). Stake much smaller than you are now, the losses won't be so hard to take and you'll have a bank left at the end of it, once you've got a reasonable sample size you'll have an idea whether your edge is worthwhile.

iv). Don't set 'targets' like '£10 every day' or '1% of bank', (for some this works but I figure they mean long term rather than each day), I've generally found it simply leads to an involuntary 'must recover losses' reflex after a loser. After paying a losing bet I like to honestly be able to say to myself "I'd make that bet again given the same circumstances".

v). Betfair Commission is not to be underestimated in its ability to kill an otherwise profitable system.

All the above lessons I learned the hard way, by PAYING for them ;-). Gl.
By:
nasri
When: 07 Mar 10 20:48
bet 1 LAY stagecoach emerald £3 @ 90 18:05 wolv WON bank = £1002.88
bet 2 LAY oceans minstrel £2 @ 160 18:45 meydan WON bank = £1004.80
bet 3 LAY nesno £3 @ 75 19:35 wolv WON bank = £1007.68
bet 4 LAY west ham v bolton 0-3 £2 @ 120 WON bank = 1009.60
bet 5 LAY arsenal v burnley 0-1 £3 @ 75 WON bank = 1012.48
bet 6 LAY wolves v man u 2-0 £5 @ 95 WON bank = £1017.28
bet 7 LAY everton v hull 0-2 £5 @ 85 WON bank = £1022.08
bet 8 LAY chelsea v stoke 0-2 £3 @ 120 WON bank = 1024.96
bet 9 LAY inter v genoa 1-3 £5 @ 140 WON bank = £1029.76

thanks for advice nathan. i have learnt a few lessons on betfair like every1 else, i just thought sumthing like this was worth giving a go.
By:
nasri
When: 08 Mar 10 12:59
bet 10 LAY bon spiel(strat 14:00) £3 @ 75 ???
By:
nasri
When: 08 Mar 10 13:07
bet 11 LAY highland cadett (ling 14:10) £2 @ 280
By:
nasri
When: 08 Mar 10 13:16
bet 12 LAY tin pot man ffosl 14:20 £4 @ 110 ???
By:
nasri
When: 08 Mar 10 13:36
bet 10 LAY bon spiel(strat 14:00) £3 @ 75 WON bank = £1032.64
bet 11 LAY highland cadett (ling 14:10) £2 @ 280 WON bank = £1034.56
bet 12 LAY tin pot man (ffosl 14:20) £4 @ 110 WON bank = £1038.40
By:
jim smith
When: 10 Mar 10 19:32
my problem with these v short odds bets is its very hard to see if you are picking well or just being lucky. if you back at around evens picture is a lot clearer.
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