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pipedreamer
28 Feb 10 17:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 749 | Blogger: pipedreamer's blog
10 out of 15 successful lays,not knowing the level that everyones on on here,is this any good?Is it too small a sample?.
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Report johndough February 28, 2010 5:18 PM GMT
lay the next odds on for your bank and then ask the same questions
Report pipedreamer March 1, 2010 10:30 AM GMT
And Johnny this will prove what exactly?You want me to bet the bank?,and if it happens to be one of the losers?,so whats your point?.
Spell it out,im surprised nobody else wants to discuss,unless of course theyre assuming.Best if people dont assume and go thru the correct thought process,i.e.assume nothing.Now any questions?.
Hold on,do you think im spamming?,selling something?.well your wrong.Now questions?.
Report freddiewilliams March 1, 2010 10:34 AM GMT
far too small a sample
are these horse lays?
Report aye robot March 1, 2010 10:36 AM GMT
Freddie is right, 15 is hardly a sample at all. You need about 500 before you can have any confidence.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 1, 2010 10:49 AM GMT
"Is it any good ?" - YES...........but only you know whether it was down to "luck" or you having various edges.
Report hq insider March 1, 2010 11:38 AM GMT
as others have said not much of a sample and i tend to believe that some punters mindset is to go looking for lays rather than they find you.
Report Hayden March 1, 2010 11:57 AM GMT
Based on 4 yrs data for a major company the p/l for all odds on favourite singles made them 0.3% , therefore the reverse laying strategy incorporating inflated prices , commission and possible premium charge , well the maths is easy.
Never an advocate of using data alone tbh for any future strategy but based on the above it would take a mighty turnaround to justify getting involved as a blanket project rather than a selective one.

Good luck.
Report Jobroke March 1, 2010 12:02 PM GMT
pipedream
Report RonaldinhoRAT March 1, 2010 12:19 PM GMT
I believe the correct answer is

You are having a laugh with the most inane question you could come up with am i right?
Report gstreetblue March 1, 2010 12:59 PM GMT
There is a system by a guy called mark watson i think. It deals soley with laying odds on horses. From what I can remember if you layed every horse on every course that goes off odds on you would lose. However I think on past results some courses are profitable. If ypu google it you will find it Not too costly either. But so far I think your having beginners luck.
Report pipedreamer March 1, 2010 4:43 PM GMT
Thank you for your replies.First of all Ronald:I'm not having a laugh,I do wish some people would stop assuming this or assuming that and just answer the question.I have no idea as to what level i or anybody else is on here,thus the question
Insider:youre quite correct,you dont go looking for lays you wait for them to come to you.Far to many people believe in the quick buck,when i fact the SLOW buck is the way,even prof poker players play the percentage.
DFC:its not actually down to luck and i dont have inside info.Ive been reading the racing results for 40 years and some things happen time and time again.[can i have your e-mail adress]
I did a trial run some time ago and it was 7 out of 8 tho one was a 6/4 shot,and i discontinued it as i went off on 3 weeks hols abroad,and as i normally do my betting to win i left it till later.
I agree that its too small a sample and the test is to stop the inevitable long losing run,which discipline wise is easy as all you do is stop till things settle down
Charts would help me,but at 61 my energy levels are low,and i cant do the 12 hours work a day that i used to do,which is a pity.Maybe a team?,of trusted folk can be used.Ive pushed for this before without success,Bar Teddy Sherringham and Pinza on here.
I know some things from the past [the true story]of which the notorious Royal Ascot Laser gun springs to mind,this and other little snippets that cant be said on here for obvious reasons!!.
Report pipedreamer March 1, 2010 4:44 PM GMT
I forgot,the lays are horses.
Report pipedreamer March 4, 2010 8:51 PM GMT
.
Report sweetchildofmine March 5, 2010 1:37 AM GMT
youre not giving much away, you say laying odds on, is that 1.1? is it 1.99?

its like saying i backed odds against....be more precise...10 out of 15 1.99 lays is good going, 10 out of 15 1.1 shots is a disaster
Report justin time2 March 5, 2010 6:36 AM GMT
Surely that should be the other way round sweetchild? If I lay 15 1.1 shots for £100 and 5 dont win the race I get £500 against an expenditure of £100, compared to £500 profit against an expenditure of £990
Report age 21 March 5, 2010 11:31 AM GMT
laying one horse per race you will go skint, you may get lucky for a while but you will go skint
Report pipedreamer March 5, 2010 12:01 PM GMT
I'm talking about horses that are odds on before the race goes off,obviously they are a mixture of prices.Any horse i deem qualifies is laid as long as it starts odds on.
As long as i generally stay 50/50 or more its obviously ok,pocket-wise.
Report age 21 March 5, 2010 12:04 PM GMT
no offence but it sounds like you are clueless.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 5, 2010 12:16 PM GMT
age 21 05 Mar 12:31


laying one horse per race you will go skint, you may get lucky for a while but you will go skint

======================================================

If your knowledge is poor , then you are probably correct age 21. All depends how many edges you have on each race.

If you lay more than 1 horse in a race, then you are giving yourself more chances of laying a winner. One selection per race is a clearer mindset to operate on IMO.

Gl with bets.
Report tonystip March 5, 2010 4:32 PM GMT
Lay all odds on fav on the flat in March,April & May. This has worked in the past. Will post on here all bets if time allows.
Report top2rated March 5, 2010 8:11 PM GMT
tonystip

With respct, blanket laying of all odds on shots is in my view simplistic and the rewards are likely to be minimal.

I think it's important to attempt to establish why a particular horse is likely to start at odds on.

One particular type of animal that interests me is what are most commonly referred to as One for the notebook or Eyecatchers, provided they run again within around 28 days.

Usually the horse is from a stable with a large public following that "ran a race full of promise when finishing 2nd in a16 runner 2yo maiden race at Newbury last time out". I'm sure you know the type I mean.

The newspaper tipsters then jump on the bandwagon and chances are you've got a false priced favourite.

You may not agree but I'm sure it's an area worthy of investigation.
Report pipedreamer March 6, 2010 11:27 AM GMT
Backing ALL odds-on favs is obviously ridiculous.
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