General Betting
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21 Feb 10
11:50
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22 Sep 01
can anyone tell me what the expected losing run sequence for 400 bets with an average price of 3.25?
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Depends on what you mean by ''a losing run''. I would imagine around 30 consecutive, but the losing run interspersed by the occasional winner can be anything.
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If the losing run is anywhere near 30, it is clear they are not genuine 9/4 chances and you should be laying them.
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Could get a losing run 30 on toss of a coin. Sounds a very wise expectation for 9/4 chances
There's too much attention to losing sequences anyway, the best test always should be maximum deficit |
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http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/winning_losing_runs.htm
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I have created a little simulation program for these purposes.
With my simulation, I tested a sequence of 2,000 bets with a theoretical 9/4 probability. The distribution was an eye opener. The longest losing run was 45, so beware! ;) It never hurts to err on the side of pessimism when it comes to these things. One (profitable) strategy of mine yields a long-term strike rate of 34% on UK horse racing, but last year I still managed a longest losing run of 34! And as Kenilworth alludes, it's rarely one single losing run that decimates a punter's strategy. On most occasions punters slowly 'bleed to death' over time from a long-term downward cycle of losses interspersed with the occasional winner. |
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When I used to go to the casino I would wait for a losing sequence and then use a staking plan to cover the maximum amount of losers.
This was reasonably successful until one day I came across a sequence that blew me out. The maths I used to calculate the longest losing sequence were the true odds of a given result happening multiplied by 12. E.G.when punting a10/1 shot the max. losing run would be 120(12x10). This was a pretty good guideline, although obviously not infallible. |
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if i lay 3 winners in a row ill cut my throat
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ive layed 5 horses on the trot and none were in the top 2 in the betting,was very painfull and took along time to get losses back,wont happen again once bitten
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The average longest losing streak is a shade over 14.
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"Average longest'" .. Hmmmmm
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You need the strike rate for an accurate answer. If you assume 3.25 is about break even then the strike rate is about 28.57%. For 400 bets the expected longest is 15.
In a simulation of 100,000 trials for 400 bets the highest was 43. |
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My guess from simulating it is E(x) =14.2, Var(X)=3.5
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Sorry, Var(X) = 3.5^2
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These figures mean over 400 trials you are unlikely (3%) to see a losing run of greater than 21.
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no one biting mate
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thanks chaps. my football bets have been at an average price of 9/4 and have already hit a losing run of 13 and had their been an equaliser in one other match would have been a run of 25 losers.
i currently bet 5% of my bank on each selection and have come to the conclusion that i'm betting too much as a %. will drop to 2 or 3% i reckon. all bets are returning approx 15% POT so I don't think i should really be laying them as someone suggested! thanks for your help |
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I make it 15
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good for for you MWDS 2.5% is about the right level, you can see how punters underestimate losing runs and maximum deficits, good luck in the future
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Did a small simulation for average longest losing run as well, came to 13.77 but only 155 observations.
Bin Frequency 7 1 8 0 9 4 10 13 11 18 12 15 13 28 14 24 15 17 16 12 17 7 18 6 19 1 20 3 21 1 22 0 23 4 24 1 More 0 |
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RacingCert 21 Feb 13:44
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/winning_losing_runs.htm "In 550 throws you will get a maximum run of nine heads in a row." What nonsense is that? |
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Search me.
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45,3256
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You might be interested in how we have solved the age old problem of losing runs in horserace betting, we have devised a software program that can be used for our phone line bets or for your own bets.
This coverbet software requires a horse to run well to get your full stake money back on a loser, running well can also sometimes mean falling, going well, pulled up, running on. We no longer get losing runs in a traditional way and it now means full confidence when betting without requiring large betting banks. The software is fully automated and works on the api. |
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Try this.............
http://home.iprimus.com.au/jfc2000/drawdown.htm Not sure if it will help you but it's quick and easy! |