My Challenge - Long Term Profit

thread will be over within a week nap

we'll see.

No offence, but why do people think they can make 5% a week just because they say they want to? It's a gamble and gamblers don't make 5% a week rigid, its ups and downs and unless you relly know what you are doing will end with losses long term.

Dude, I'm under no illusions of the tough task I have set myself and the fact that I will some times be negative for the week and may go 7/8 bets on the bounce losing out but hopefully with some clever trading I can maximise profits whilst eradicating losses.

Are you betting to a target of, say 5% ? If so, I think you will fail, as targets don't work for reasons that are obvious to me.

The reason being that you look for bets that aren't there, and overstake to reach the target

I have not set 5% in stone, last week I improved my bank by 12%, this week I might be down 10% that's life. I doubt anyone in their right mind doesn't think 'I want to win, but have no idea how much' and goes in blind, comes out with a profit in the long run.

This is simply to record my profit and loss and accept constructive crtique where I have messed up.

DCM, as above, I will not be looking for bets that are not there for 5% if I am down, then I am down and if I am up, then I'm up. My bets will be based on whether I think there is value in them or not.

of course he will do it. he has been betting for 5 days and hasn't told us what his bets have been. easy to win that way.

FFS give him a chance

Fixtures 21 February / Almeria v Atl Madrid / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 10170735586 21-Feb-10
18:14 C 10 1.00 10 1.00
Fixtures 20 February / Guadalajara v Puebla / Match Odds Guadalajara Lay 10165638778 21-Feb-10
00:46 C 1.6 0.02 1.6 (0.01)
Fixtures 20 February / Guadalajara v Puebla / Match Odds Guadalajara Back 10165637847 21-Feb-10
00:45 C 1.57 2.00 1.57 1.14
Fixtures 20 February / Guadalajara v Puebla / Match Odds Guadalajara Lay 10165635683 21-Feb-10
00:45 C 1.59 1.96 1.59 (1.16)
Fixtures 20 February / Guadalajara v Puebla / Match Odds Guadalajara Lay 10165635597 21-Feb-10
00:45 C 1.59 1.97 1.59 (1.16)
Fixtures 20 February / Guadalajara v Puebla / Match Odds Guadalajara Back 10165634020 21-Feb-10
00:44 C 1.57 2.00 1.57 1.14
Fixtures 20 February / Corinthians v Rio Branco / Next Goal No Goal Lay 10164749997 20-Feb-10
21:58 C 11 1.00 11 (10.00)
Fixtures 20 February / Inter v Sampdoria / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 10163820181 20-Feb-10
20:07 C 8.4 1.50 8.4 (11.10)
Fixtures 20 February / Guimaraes v Leixoes / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 10163455722 20-Feb-10
19:27 C 8.6 2.41 8.6 2.41
Fixtures 20 February / VVV v AZ Alkmaar / 1st Goal No Goal Lay 10162771296 20-Feb-10
18:20 C 14.5 1.39 14.5 1.39
Fixtures 20 February / Portsmouth v Stoke / 1st Goal No Goal Lay 10162375152 20-Feb-10
17:37 C 9.4 1.97 9.4 1.97
Fixtures 20 February / Genoa v Udinese / 1st Goal No Goal Lay 10161508343 20-Feb-10
16:38 C 12.5 1.36 12.5 1.36
Fixtures 20 February / Nurnberg v B Munich / 1st Goal No Goal Lay 10157648997 20-Feb-10
13:14 C 21 0.75 21 0.75
Fixtures 20 February / Everton v Man Utd / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 10157337416 20-Feb-10
12:50 C 11 1.31 11 1.31
Fixtures 20 February / H Rostock v Augsburg / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 10154736030 20-Feb-10
01:04 C 12.5 1.10 12.5 1.10
GB / Ling 19th Feb / 12:55 1m4f Sell Stks Magnitude Lay 10147802320 19-Feb-10
12:19 C 3.95 2.02 3.95 (5.96)
GB / Ling 19th Feb / 12:55 1m4f Sell Stks Magnitude Back 10147802319 19-Feb-10
12:19 C 4 2.00 4 6.00
Fixtures 19 February / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Rot-Weiss Ahlen / Total Goals 1 goals or more Back 10147587142 19-Feb-10
11:44 C 1.07 11.90 1.07 0.83
Group A / Barclays Dubai Tennis (W) / Winner Venus Williams Lay 10146817525 19-Feb-10
08:10 C 2.1 5.36 2.1 (5.90)
Fixtures 18 February / Alianza Lima v Estudiantes / Total Goals 4 goals or more Back 10146236840 19-Feb-10
01:14 C 1.2 10.00 1.2 2.00

Juts played with the 1 goal market when I was trying out the challenge in the footy forum... the bets on the Guadalajara game cost me 5p but I was playing with geekstoy. The tennis match was backed on Bet365 for £6 win, again, just trying out arbing.

The one goal thing is ongoing and will be my downfall. But my bets will revolve around small multi's and match odds markets, aswell as horse backing and laying.

I also won £10.25 on a multi on over/under 2.5 goals which I posted in the 7 evens bets thread.

Pulled out of the 1+ goal market for a max loss of 95p.

Todays Bets:

1. Multi Stake £4 Odds 2.3
Valencia v Getafe Over/Under 1.5 Goals:
Over 1.5 Goals Back 346979926 22-Feb-10
Rotherham v Shrewsbury Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Under 2.5 Goals Back 346979927 22-Feb-10

2. Multi Stake £4 Odds 3.09
Unirea Urziceni v CFR Cluj Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Under 2.5 Goals Back 347097026 22-Feb-10
14:11 - 1.52 - Matched Kaiserslautern v St Pauli Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Over 2.5 Goals Back 347097027

1. Multi Stake £4 Odds 2.3 Profit £4.94
Valencia v Getafe Over/Under 1.5 Goals:
Over 1.5 Goals Back 346979926 22-Feb-10 2-1
Rotherham v Shrewsbury Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Under 2.5 Goals Back 346979927 22-Feb-10 1-1

2. Multi Stake £4 Odds 3.09 Profit £11.94
Unirea Urziceni v CFR Cluj Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Under 2.5 Goals Back 347097026 22-Feb-10 0-1
14:11 - 1.52 - Matched Kaiserslautern v St Pauli Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Over 2.5 Goals Back 347097027 3-0

For the Sceptics:

Uni Urziceni v CFR Cluj / Total Goals / 1 goals or more -1.0 Lay 1.12 10.00 Lost (1.20)
Uni Urziceni v CFR Cluj / Total Goals / 1 goals or more -1.0 Back 1.08 10.95 Won 0.88
2010-02-22 14:11 Transfer To Multiples, Multiples Bet Id 12761798 - - - (4.00)
2010-02-22 09:40 Transfer To Multiples, Multiples Bet Id 12758902 - - - (4.00)
2010-02-22 21:45 Transfer from Multiples, Multiples Bet Id 12758902 - - - 8.94
2010-02-22 21:04 Transfer from Multiples, Multiples Bet Id 12761798 - - - 11.94

Thats me done for the day. Yesterdays total = £102.74 Todays = £119.30 (+16.12%)

Sorry, calculated that wrong! +12.23% £7.94 on the second multiple not £11.94.

Just lost £2.41 on a horse race. Back in the game. Don't think there'll be much betting tonight, nothing really stands out.

Loss of £0.57 today. Not going to percentage that up.

Messed up a back to lay on the fav to lose £2.14 won a 20p lay on 9 corners or less in the utd game (just a mess about) and bet on their being 1 goal in the benfica and mk dons games.

23rd Feb. Did a late night bet to break even, quickly traded the over 4.5 market for £1.02 profit.

Week Start Bank - £102.74
Yesterdays Banks - £115.30
Current Bank - £115.70

(daily % increase of 0.35) (weekly % inc of 12.61) (total % inc of 27.14)

Bit of a long hard slog ahead, mate but good luck with it.

Keep it going LWaugh !!

Tonights Update:

P&L Football: £5.03 Total P&L: £5.03

Football / Angers v Clermont : Correct Score 26-Feb-10 19:00 26-Feb-10 20:57 2.24
Football / Duisburg v Oberhausen : Correct Score 26-Feb-10 17:00 26-Feb-10 18:50 1.15
Football / Universitario v Libertad : Match Odds 26-Feb-10 02:20 26-Feb-10 04:17 0.25
Football / Once Caldas v Sao Paulo : Correct Score 26-Feb-10 00:10 26-Feb-10 02:03 1.39

(daily % increase of 4.18) (weekly % inc of 21.89) (total % inc of 37.61) Current Bank = £125.23

Reduced my risk on the one goal market banking £10.50.

Tonights Update:

P&L Football: £10.00 Total P&L: £10.00

£21.63 - Boca Juniors v Estudiantes (Lay 0-0 @ 26.5) + £0.81
£22.44 - Burnley v Portsmouth (Lay 0-0 @ 11) + £2.13
£24.57 - Young Boys v FC Zurich (Lay 0-0 @ 21) + £1.16
£25.73 - Stoke City v Arsenal (Lay 0-0 @ 13.5) + £1.95
£27.68 - Olympique Lyon v Nice (Lay 0-0 @ 14) + £2.01
£29.69 - Willem II v VVV Venlo (Lay 0-0 @ 15.5) + £1.94
£31.63

(daily % increase of 7.98) (weekly % inc of 31.62) (total % inc of 48.6) Current Bank = £135.23

It's a massive risk that Im running and you could say Im not in a situation to claim a 31.62% increase, although Im going to, because currently that's the situation I find myself in. I re-staked the £10.50 because I knew this would leave me in a position to make a faster gain on a day where I could bet on plenty of games. Now I have banked £10 guaranteeing myself a gain of at least 10% on the week if it fails tomorrow (although I'll be out for most of the day playing American Football).

Tonights & The Weeks Update:

P&L Football: £14.28 Total P&L: £14.28

### BANKED £10.63 ###
20. £21.00 - Juventus v Palermo (Lay 0-0 @ 12.5) + £1.73
21. £22.73 - Sporting Lisbon v Porto (Lay 2-0 @ 3.9) + £7.44
22. £30.17 - Estudiantes Tecos v CF America (Lay 0-0 @ 16) + £1.91
23. £32.08 - Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate (Lay 0-0 @ 10.5) + £3.20
24. £35.28 -

(daily % increase of 10.56) (weekly % inc of 45.52) (total % inc of 64.29) Current Bank = £149.51


Aiming for £40 and then will bank a further £10. My weekly increase has been secured at 11.12% due to this mornings banking of £10.63.

The weeks over then. Hopefully next week will be profitable (although similar results are certainly not expected).