General Betting
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I noticed a new addition to the API solutions (QuantSports) and after doing some research saw that it has been receiving positive feedback.
Does anybody have any experience with technical analysis on the sports markets? It seems a very interesting concept to me.
Does anybody have any experience with technical analysis on the sports markets? It seems a very interesting concept to me.
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Replies: 21
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I do not think it works. Probably horse markets could show some predictable technical patterns but others than that, eehm doubt it.
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I'd be really surprised if it worked.
One of the reasons why it has some importance in the financial markets is that lots of others are doing technical analysis too. If the Dow Jones index breaks its 200-day moving average, say, it might need to be factored in just because other significant players are factoring it in. This self-reinforcing mechanism wouldn't be present on Betfair because, presumably, hardly anyone is actually doing TA of these markets. |
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Contrarian, the same argument be applicable the other way round. I don't think TA was initially created for everyone to use it, but because of it's popularity people made it less effective.
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I've read inTA books author saying it works cos people believe in it.
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Contrarian
cant say i disagree with you often - but here I have too 1) people are doing techincal analsysis 2) several poeple/stratergies/bots make up a surprising amount of some/many markets, as such you could use techincal analysis to front run these (repetative bots) by determining thier entry points into the market, and use them as insurance if the expect retratcion does not occur |
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My sense is that it may well work on horse markets.
Look at things like 'on balance volume', Bollinger bands for small-tick reversals, trading ranges and momentum. My initial pricing is on form, but if I am uncomfortable w/ how far I am out of line with the market, I will turn almost exclusively to technical indicators to manage my liability. |
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Exactly agree w/ Magician--you get a good idea of others' entry points. Sure, you don't always win but you can make sure the upside/downside is in yr favour.
I find that when the market agrees w/ my estimate of form, I can do nothing. But when there's something I don't know or haven't factored in, I have to tweak my tissue. The Toatsport Gold Trophy winner yesterday was a case in point. |
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TA might very well work.
I am seeing the same patterns week on week. It would need to be honed down to high and low volume markets and weekdays and weekends. |
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TA on Betfair is that the site dosen't work as it supposed to do and the trend is still downward.
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Get in touch if you want to analyse this in detail. I am a fundamentalist but working patterns. I guess that fundamentalists and chartists are always capable of meeting in the middle.
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It is predictable. A ought to work.
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Magician,
That's really interesting. I need a new project to work on, so I'll try to see if I can work out a type of TA that works on these markets - perfect as a basis for a bot, of course. |
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I've recently done a post on my blog about TA
http://struggling-trader.blogspot.com/2010/02/using-technical-analysis-in-betfair.html |
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It's no wonder the API's aye knackered with all these interface cluedo players bombarding the system. It's like going into B&Q and having to queue behind hundreds of school children buying sweeties. Cannot be good for real business.
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If the information is there, only stubborness could prevent anyone from using it.
Perhaps I wd rather it weren't, but then volumes might be lower and I might do less well overall. The idea that someone either knows about form or about numbers/modelling also seems stretched to me. |
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I'm not slating anyone for using it Askari. I'm saying I don't see the point in betfair giving it out when imo the only effect is to hugely increase api traffic. Most of those making use of the info will only be front running what's coming so they can sell back a short time later i.e. ticket tout types. If anyone can think of a situation where releasing the info is going to result in an increase in significant liquidity on the 'light' side I'm all ears.
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u lot need to go get yourselfs a girlfriend u sad arses
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Is that an offer missus?
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:^0
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I traded on NASDAQ with 50K for several years.
My set-up made the Enterprise look like tinker toy. I had everything available to me. I learnt that everyone was following the same data feeds. Inorder to find my approach, I had to work the math, work the filters and built my own indicators and when they would flag the market changes before dozens of others, all with the same feeds, made their move. I learnt alot. I learnt fast is not always the best. I learnt that indicators are far from the end all and that you must picture dozens of others, especially on here, are all following the same limited amount of information. I will not be using the information and will stick with one of the first rules of trading: Never be the person to lay when the price hits a new high. Never be the person to back when the price hits a new low. Keep it simple on here. Indicators will simply put you on the same path as dozens of others. |
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Sure, shapeshifter.
I have no background in anything financial / City at all--I was in education a long time and now have a small education / language & legal training business. Even for the small sums I try to win, I can't see that either form-based pricing on its own or technical analysis on its own will outperform the other. Or at least using a combination will smooth results. Feck, I entirely agree w/ you re the bad effect of the interface on the API and w/ penny-pinching in the late markets. It is in no way to the benefit of bf's growth or of successful pricing punters that various kinds of purely mechanical expertise mean the casual punter gets 6.4 when the price is 6.6 etc. My definition of liquidity is money available at any time in the earlier markets. I wd be happy w/ no bf and unrestricted bookie accounts but have to make do with laying on here. I'm not sure that a visible interface discourages playing in this sense. |