All My Bets Posted Here

I think that ur 1 of many posters on this forum ( and any forum) that have a clue what they r doing.

I also agree that a full strength liverpool would have been odds on vs spuds

Depor vs Bilbao, Depor had a few players missing therefore i backed Bilb @ 3.5 @ C0rals

But I think u really underestimate how the goal expectancy effects the price.

If u take the french 1st div, a traditional low scoring league, and the krauts a traditional high scoring league u will see the difference

Maybe supernap aka kenilworth will confirm this.

yes i think Kenilworth did mention it before.

Bet 34: £27.67 Genoa @1.94 v Atalanta

This is a 'what am i missing' type of bet for me . It is the only Serie A Match that i'm out of line by any margin with the Market , so far out that i decided to only use 1/3 of the recommended stake. Actually regret doing that now , but as i've placed other bets since don't want to have any more on.Genoa are in 'poor form' the last couple of months , but during that time have played Inter , AC ,Napoli and Roma , so it is not as bad as it looks imo, and they should recover to finish Top Half comfortably. .Atalanta will probably be relegated so almost Evs for the home team is amazing , just thought it was 'too good to be true' so overcautious with the staking plan.

Bet 35: £33.63 Villareal @ 1.50 v Zaragoza .

Villa mid table presently but i rate them a lot better than that and Zaragoza are just as bad as 19th place suggests

Bet 36: £7.43 Xerez @3.32 v Osasuna

Don't see Xerez being as bad as Derby 07/08 so shouldn't be underdogs home to fellow strugglers.

Bet 37: £7.36 (Liabilty) Lay of Valencia @1.76 away to Tenerife

Bet 38: £3.37 Mallorca @2.99 Away to Espanol

Lat 2 bets marginal value but value all the same and i regret not doing those smaller bets earleir in the thread.

Bank: £204.53

Bank: £325.72

Bet 39 (A): £3.73 Malaga@19.05 away to Real Madrid
(B): £10.55 (Liabilty) Lay of Real Madrid@1.20

Bank: £311.44

I see that u have teams that r rated evenly after home advantage at 2.9

4 me a typical game would have the GE at 2.5, so i would go 2.8 the pair

but thats my opinion. Maybe Im right or maybe Im wrong who knows.

yeah that is for England

I was using about 2.80 last season but change it . You may be right indeed , will always review it from time to time.

Home advantage changes from league 2 league, and from division 2 divsion in that league

4 me i dont use the same figure in the prem, champ or L1

I think its obvs that home adv is falling across all the major leagues in europe

Yes i have it different in different leagues

regarding ur bets 2 day

i had genoa @ 1.94
villarreal @ 1.51
osasonu @ 2.39
valencia @ 1.77
mallorca were def value at that price, but as long as u make profit thats all that matters.

Genoa were 1.52 for me :) that would have been 80 odd £ bet with the full Kelly Stake, as i said that made me doubt my price , so lowered stake by 2/3 , though really looking at it , the difference was all about how you interpret form .I'm sure Genoa would have been areound 1.5 ten weeks back, so its a case of deciding wether they have deteriorated so much since then .I cannot see how that is possible.

I also had Villareal 1.51 , Valencia 1.93 .

You may be right about the differences , my ratings are quite volatile at the present as i haven't been doing the foriegn leagues seriously for long, whereas my English Ratings have been going for years.

I do the foreign leagues the same as any other league, but change home advanage thats all

I include form and and go back 33 matches, and I am nicely in profit this season. But if u show a profit, then good luck 2 u, no matter how u do it. I am not saying the way I do it is right, but I am happy with my prices in the long term.

Go saints

ok 33 is a sensible figure to use , good luck Tricky :)

The way KP does it is correct, ie going back 33 or 32 matches and including form is correct

Thats the way I do it, and the prices I get r very accurate.

I also had Villareal 1.51

typo there ,actually 1.32 or i would n't have backed them

Bet 40: £15.83 Burnley@5.08 away to Bolton

Bet 41: £14.08 Portsmouth@2.48 v West Ham

Bet 42: £26.47 Liverpool@1.69 away to Wolves

Bank: £255.06

Bet 43 (A): £20.75 (Liabilty) Lay of Everton@1.73 v Sunderland
(B): £11.86 Sunderland@6.13

Bet 44: £8.10 Wigan@4.23 away to Blackburn

Bank: £214.35

Bet 45: £5.25 Wolfsburg away to Hamburg

another half stake bet

Bank: £209.10

^
was 4.42 after commision forget to say

What price ?

and 1.04 with 30 secs of injury time left!

Bet 46 (A): £12.28 (Liabilty) Lay of Bayern Munich@1.25 v Mainz.
(B) £4.12 Mainz@17.15
( I don't believe the top teams in Germany are the usual standard so prices as short as that not justified against team in 8th .I expect Home/Away specialist theory is a factor in the priceing but i don't believe in that)

Bet 47: £8.44 Wigan@3.37 v Everton. ( Agree Everton should be favs but have Wigan just over 2/1)

Bet 48: £13.79 Hull@2.40 v Wolves ( I rate these 2 equal )

Bet 49: £28.69 Liverpool @1.42 v Bolton ( still of the view that Liverpool's Decline not as severe or permanent as generally supposed)

Bank: £141.78

So unlucky tonight with that late goal. Keep going mate and best of luck to you :)

ty Jinxy :)

Bank: £182.73

All Time Low reached after 1 winning match from last 11 ( @1.42)

Likely to get worse as opposing Chelsea and Barcelona next

Bet 50 (A): £12.70 (Liabilty) Lay of Chelsea@1.37 away to Burnley
(B): £5.13 Burnley@11.92

Bank: £164.90

Bet 51: £12.73 (Liabilty) Lay of Barcelona @1.30 v Sp Gijon

Bank: £152.16

Bet 52: £4.35 Genoa @4.8 away to Napoli

Bank: £147.81

Worst Week I can remeber this

Bet 53: £8.57 Arsenal@2.36 v Man United

Bet 54: £21.06 Villareal@1.77 v Osasuna

Bank: £118.19

Chin up.

:D

Really can't recall a worse week of betting . Lost on 15 of the last 16 matches . Of course lost far more money than that in a day let alone a week before , but can't remember anything like that in terms of strike rate. December/January 08-09 lost about £700 in a few weeks on the thread i was doing at the time , but think the worst sequence was something like 3/16 for winning games, probably at bigger average prices too.

Well i shan't bother with the half stakes on the foriegn matches anymore , losing most on England anyhow.

Bet 55: £11.20 Seville@2.33 v Valencia

Bank: £106.99

Bet 56: £9.46 Sunderland@2.11 v Stoke

Bank: £123.63

T, sometimes this game can take the p!ss out of you !!

Well done for the sensible staking.
15/16 losers, a warning for any martingale mug if they ever needed one!

Bet 53: £8.57 Arsenal@2.36 v Man United

Please, please, please tell me this is a joke?

You backed Arsenal at 2.36, please tell me this wasn't their SP. That can't be right, I left and they were 2.7. I backed United at 2.96. What price did they hit, and at what stage did you ever, ever, consider Arsenal were good value at 2.36. FFS.

What price did you make Arsenal, and why did you wait for the 2.36?

You backed United at 2.96 ? Touched 3.4 on the off so you were'nt so smart, were you ?

weren't*

I got very good value, and make football pay more than anyone I know on this site (obviously lots of people make a lot more than me, I am just yet to meet them). Betting a team at good value is a smart play. The fact the price went out 44 ticks is the nature of betting prior to official team line ups. Could well have gone in falsely 44 ticks. Law of averages. Are you suggesting that if you don't get the best price everytime that you are not smart. Seems fatally flawed that, mainly because, it is.

Hi mate. Well done on Seville. Hope that gets you back on track. Cheers

Cheers Dennis, though i think it will take more than that to get this mess back on track :)

Angela, Ken wasn't saying people are mugs for not getting matched at the highest price, he was responding to you comment about me taking a price when it had been much bigger earlier.People take what they think is a value price when they see its available because they weren't around when it was much bigger earlier (which was the case with me) or because they have no way of knowing it was going to get any bigger ( which is what happened to you after taking 2.96 United).

I made Arsenal 2.19 , backed themabout 2.42 (the 2.36 is after commission) , i was out and got in just before kick off.Yes, i could have taken 2.7 ish the evening beforebut i wanted to know the outcome of other bets i had running first, and i had no reason to suppose the Arsenal price would be bigger the next day.

In the same fixture last season i saw Arsenal at 3.0 threee days before, thought that was amazing , backed it , then they were 3.65 two days later.

Bet 57: £12.74 Fulham @1.90 v Portsmouth

Bank: £110.89

Bank: £135.12

Bet 58: £9.99 (Liabilty) Lay of Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin

Bank: £125.13

Bet 59: £26.51 Liverpool@1.93 v Everton

Bet 60: £36.48 (Liabilty) Lay of Bayern Munich@1.83 away to Wolfsburg

Bet 61: £4.86 Fulham@3.61 away to Bolton

Bet 62: £2.69 (Liablity) Lay of Man United@1.16 v Portsmouth

Bet 63: £3.57 (Laibilty) Lay of Barcelona@1.21 v Getafe

Bet 64: £2.01 Arsenal @4.8 away to Chelsea

Bank: £49.01

Re the Munich bet, that is 37% of the bank , so something must be wrong there, either with the market or my ratings.More the latter i expect, but probably both .I make it a joint favourite match . I certainly think Bayern way overated, and that there is not a great deal between Top and 7th/8th in Germany (Wolfsburg are 11th but better than that indicates) . Bayern are the kind of price Chelsea would be at Everton , though they are well behind Chelsea surely and Wolfsburg comfortably superior to Everton.

Bank: £100.20

Lat 26 matches i have 4 winners ( three odds on and the other about 5/4) , pretty grim.

Bet 65: £15.35 Fiorentina@2.50 v Roma

Bank: £84.85

ttt

Angela Rebecchi 21 Jan 06:26
Quick question for whenever you are next here, what price would the home team be set at for the market to have the view that they are equal to the opposition? Ta.


tobermory 23 Jan 02:42
I have it 2.19 Home and 3.78 Away in England.

I made Arsenal 2.19 , backed themabout 2.42 (the 2.36 is after commission) , i was out and got in just before kick off.Yes, i could have taken 2.7 ish the evening beforebut i wanted to know the outcome of other bets i had running first, and i had no reason to suppose the Arsenal price would be bigger the next day.

You therefore think Arsenal are as good as Man United?

yeah AR , just downgraded Arsenal in my rating s a bit recently since though :)

:)

we both taken the 2.2 on arsenal to beat liverpool though, yeah?

indeed :)

Hi. I think Arsenal will end up being a sound investment this week. There has already been an over reaction to Arsenals recent defeats to Chelsea and Manu IMO. Even though Liverpool have improved of late According to my ratings Arsenal should be no more than 2.05. I was at there game yesterday and I was most impressed with them TBH. Will def be laying Liverpool this week. I can see Arsenal drifting further right up to kick off. Lovely!!!, Cheers

What was so "impressive" re ARENAL in CHELSEA match??????

Was it their defensive set up?

Was it their pretty football with no punch!


Was it their ability to be bullied out of game????

ARSENAL.....bless meeeeeeeeeeeeee

Well mate . I am as you can prob guess a massive Chelsea fan . But I thought Petr was man of the match. He made some crucial saves at vital points in the game. If one of them had gone in it could have been a very different outcome. It was an observation by me thats all . i thought Arsenal played well. Cheers

Must admit ...I only saw some of game .....and all I could see was a ref turning blind eye to the general "bullying" ...hands out shoving approach adopted AGAIN by CHELSEA. they just shoved them over every chance they could get away with it......This is what makes it hard for skilful British players to participate in football in this country ...


If referees continually allow bullies to get away with breaking the rulles of the game....a hand out PUSH is a foul etc......then teams like ARSENAl won't win anything in this country....perhaps CL is their best bet this season.......as C won't get away with it there.

IMO it was not CHELSEA keeper that stopped em ....just sheer bad finishing by A players.....He probably did produce some excellent saves......but I still believe it is down to players bad finishing. The ARSENAL players just cannot resist doing "pretty" show moves ...when they should just concentrate on finishing ...without over doing the pretty football.

CHELSEA adopted the tactics that worked against A ...and thoroughly deserved their win.....it was down to ref to apply laws of game...he didn't ...AGAIN...so that is football in this country.

Would be interesting to see what GEORGE GRAHAM would change in the ARSENAL team ......he would create a team that wins and is not so easily bullied I am certain of that.

LIVERPOOL will adopt physical tactics against A ...probably finishes a DRAW.........or LIV win....a huge game for both.....but I suspect A players minds are on CL tie against PORTO.....avoiding injury etc.......so would not consider A a "value" win bet in all the circumstances.

GL with bets ...whatever they are!

LIVERPOOL will adopt physical tactics against A ...probably finishes a DRAW.........or LIV win....a huge game for both.....but I suspect A players minds are on CL tie against PORTO.....avoiding injury etc.......so would not consider A a "value" win bet in all the circumstances.

..but I guess if Arsenal win you will have wriggled out with a small profit. One day you must telluis how you do it, please.

Not even sure if I will bet on match......at least I post my opinion on games PRIOR to matches ( on TOTGA thread )...and ...if ,by your leave , I post AFTER a game my opinion on a said game ...at least you know my view.

BTW - what is your opinion on ARSENAL v LIVERPOOL .......?????? Do you have one?

Bet 66: £3.76 Sunderland@3.23 away to Portsmouth

Bank: £81.09

unreal :(

Bet 67(A): £11.71 (Liabilty) Lay of Man United@1.99 away to Aston Villa
(B) £5.88 Aston Villa@4.61

Bet 68(A): £6.35 (Liabilty) Lay of Chelsea@1.80 away to Everton
(B) £2.85 Everton@5.275

Bank: £54.29

I understood that ''Kelly'' can withstand the losing run, but not so it seems.

LIVERPOOL will adopt physical tactics against A ...probably finishes a DRAW.........or LIV win....a huge game for both.....but I suspect A players minds are on CL tie against PORTO.....avoiding injury etc.......so would not consider A a "value" win bet in all the circumstances.

...and you may not even have a bet...

Looks like you have covered everything.. probably finish a DRAW...or a Liv win...may not have a bet.

So once again K you DO NOT GIVE YOUR OPINION ON A MATCH BEFORE A GAME.......nothing new with you .......

You are just an after-ting clown.......except clowns are funnier ]:)

after-timing ...you are an "expert" at it ...a man with no opinion....just sniping after the game comments............

WD T on EVERTON game

DFC, You can't see beyond your own posts, but change your habit and have have a look at my thread entitled ''odds on aways'', on the football forum, posted well before kick offs.

K- you were asked on THIS THREAD for your BEFORE THE MATCH opinion re ARSENAL v LIVERPOOL....................you failed to give one on here.......No surprise !

As for you posting - on the thread you refer to -

kenilworth 10 Feb 18:19


Surely all the 3 Premier League qualifiers are vulnerable, and I expect a couple to trip up



Could you "translate" what you have posted ....as does not make any sense at all.

If you meant to post that the top 3 in PREMIERSHIP games on WED night may not win..........then that would have been something "clear"...........What are you on about re "qualifiers"?????

Basically you asked a question........and did not not state your opinion. You might say it was a "rhetorical question" ......but to me it was just a meaningless post......

If you had stated ....LAY CHELSEA ...LAY LIVERPOOL ...LAY SPURS......then that would be you clearly making a statement....not blethering about "Premier League qualifiers " .....just not a veru accurate post ...sloppy really!

Hope you won on your bets ... ...whatever they were????

If you are so bold to criticise my posts on this thread ...then when asked for an opinion BEFORE a match ON THIS THREAD.....the "decent" thing to do is to respond with an opinion.....not turn up AFTER a match spouting about just how good your opinion was on a badly worded opening post on the football forum!
GN the noooooooooooo

well played on the arsenal bet tobes. only glad to help.

well played on putting up with DFC nutterbloke too.

DFC, Surely all the 3 Premier League qualifiers are vulnerable, and I expect a couple to trip up.

DFC, if you don't understand that then you are a sad case.

Which "couple" did you "expect to trip up"?????????? Such a vague post............

So did you mean CHELSEA?
Did you mean LIVERPOOL?
Did you mean MAN UTD?
Did you mean SPURS?


Of the "3".........which 3 did you mean ???????

Communication is an art ...and you ain't got it.......]:)

I apologise tobermoray for this continual attempts by K to put down what i post........He is always on about AFTER-TIMING ....such a hypocrite!

All I asked him to do was to express an opinion ON THIS THREAD re ARSENAL v LIVERPOOL match.................BEFORE THE MATCH.......and there was the usual silence from him.

AFTER the game he quotes this spurious thread as him showing he was "right" ..................but he still did not express opinion specifically on LIVERPOOL match on the said thread .....just a post that was grossly vague.......3=4 ?????

Last post by me re K.........Just will ignore all he posts as usually little to glean from them.

GL T with thread..........................................

.BTW it appears that most of your bets are just going against the "favourite" for a match, on basis the odds are "value". I really do not think that way of selecting a bet can work long term .....but GL to you all the same ...as we all need that.....and many of your bets the unfancied team has taken lead , but not retained it ( possibly you should be going all green on your bets if there is a strong danger they might not retain lead etc??????)

So did you mean CHELSEA?
Did you mean LIVERPOOL?
Did you mean MAN UTD?
Did you mean SPURS?

DFC - I think the thread is called odds on aways. Liverpool were about 4.4 last night - so I don't think he was talking about them.

Calm down mate, you'll do yourself a mischief.

"odds on always" ...what does that mean ?

Bank: £107.47

Bet 69: £13.16 Milan@1.57 v Udinese

Bank: £94.31

tobermory, you seem to take some bad prices, or is it just my imagination ?

Milan? I backed at 1.60 there , the 1.57 was after commission.

Maybe that was no good though. I do find i am backing a few quite short in Spain&Italy , and those bets not been going to well (though neither have any other sort of bets) , i only recently compiled ratings for those leagues so it is quite possible they are wrong. I am basically rating Udinese on their performance this season which could well be an error as they were Top 7 or 8 last couple of years.

Bank: £114.97

I forgot about the commission, but besdes that, there was loads of 4/6 Milan with the books. Like I said, it might just be my imagination. !!

I can't use bookies accounts at the moment Ken, though i have about a dozen.

This, and £100 or so in another account , is all i am betting with!

I decided to have a few months off work in 2008 , and this ended up being over a year, during which i was spending £1200 or more each month. So I ran out of money.

At present my income doesn't do much more than cover bills, which means i'm ususally overdrawn , and can't deposit with bookies unless my overdraft is less than £100, which is seldom the case.

ok, Tobermory, but it wasn't necessary to tell me all that, a lot of it quite private stuff. Good luck to you in the future.

cheers Ken :)

who gives a fck get a life...

** off u tool

F.U.C.K

:)

Match 70(A): £8.10 (Liabilty) Lay of Bayer Leverkusen@1.75 v Wolfsburg
(B) £3.72 Wolfsburg @5.65

Bank: £103.15

Match 71 (A): £19.56 (Liablity) Lay of Bayern Munich@1.41 v Dortmund
(B): £6.38 Dortmund@9.55

Bank: £77.21

Match 72: £7.55(Liabilty) Lay of Real Madrid@1.28 away to Xerez

Bank: £69.65

Thread going into administration

Match 73: £4.45 Villareal @1.91 v Bilbao

Bank:£65.21

You started on a bad run, these things happen, keep goin itll turn around.

im on a shockin run at the mo, but have had them before and things have always turned themselves around eventually.

Good luck mate.....been following your progress
chin up mate
stay focused...!! :)

ty Tricky and Jez :)

Match 74: £8.13 Deportivo@3.32 away to Espanol

Match 75: £10.99 Seville@1.57 v Osasuna

Match 76: £10.47 Valladoid@2.57 v Zaragoza

Bank: £44.03 :)

Hi tobermory. See things not looking great at moment. For what it is worth I think your selections have been in the main very good. Just a bad run of luck. Really hope you can dig in and turn things around. Cheers

cheers Dennis :)

was left with £61.38 after Seville game

Match 77: £10.79 Mallorca@2.90 away to Tenerife

Mallorca a big price due to their being seen as 'home specialists' , but i don't believe in any of that and they are just far better than Tenerife imo

Bank:£50.59

Surprised you didn't look at Bristol Rovers last evening as they touched 4.9 on the off.

Wouldn't have a clue about that League Ken (not that there is much evidence i have a clue about anything else on this thread)

Match 78: £10.10 (Liabilty) Lay of Real Madrid@1.32 v Villareal

Very odd Real so short here , Barca were quite a bit bigger for the same fixture .Presumably due to RM's perfect home stats .Those are likely due to their not having played anyone decent at home so far.

Bank: £40.29

Bank unmanageably small now so will end this thread if this bet loses.

Bank was actually £40.49 for all the difference it makes

Match 78 (B): £3.44 Villareal @12.8

Bank: £37.05

Next bet?

What's the point of this resurrection ?