BETTING MATHS QUESTION

You need more information to calculate it. Depends on the probability of a 2 way tie, 3 way tie etc.

a 2 way tie he is 13 /2

a 3 way tie he is 4/1
and so on

if I have 100 @ 14/1 it pays out 1500
If there is a dead heat it pays out 750
if there is a 3 way dh it pays out 500

I want to get paid out the same no matter how many others are joint top (limit it to 5 for the sake of simplicity). Can the probability be worked out from that? You could also say there are only 30 real chances in the comp with prices from 6/1 to 50/1.

thanks Carpet but that is saying**@ 14/1 is a 13/2 chance to be joint top scorer with one other or outright top scorer on his own in the PL. Seems unlikely.

Maybe it can't worked out.

I'm trying to work it out as a bookmaker i.e. I need a price to quote someone where they get paid if player is joint top scorer too.

It's Monye in the 6 Nations top try scorer market if anyone wants to take a stab. Cheers

If the player was originally 14/1 and you limit it to a 5 way dh you should be laying at 2.8 to cover 5 dh. . . . I think. . .

If he is 14/1 and 2 winners pay out 7/1

If he is 14/1 and 3 winners pay out 14/3

and so on

No you dont 1/2 the price you 1/2 the stake. . .

Although 14/5 is 2.8. . . .

risq

u carnt do it like that

let say all players r 14/1

u quote 4/1 thinking the maximum possibility is a triple dead heat.

5 players dead heat so you would end up paying 4/1 instead of
2/1.
all odds are compiled on 1 winner thats why dead heat rules apply.

what your asking is to price an event without knowing the total number of winners.

good luck

You can work out the possible likelihood of joint top-scorers
e.g if there are joint top-scorers 3 years out of 10, you would offer (.7 x 15) ( 7 years pay out in full) + (.3 x 7.5) (3 years pay out for dead heat) = 12.75 which is just less than 12'1

This does not take account of the chance of more than 2 joint top-scorers, which again you would need to look into by checking previous results.

I haven't done that so don't take this as the answer, its just how you would calculate it

yes guys it's half the stake not half the odds , easy way to work out the new price for a dead heat of two or joint favourites is................

subtract the numbers and double the 2nd number....

examples

14/1 = 14 - 1 =13 double the 2nd number = 2 .....so 13/2

5/4 = 1/8
5/2 = 3/4
7/2 = 5/4
8/1 = 7/2
10/1 = 9/2
16/1 = 15/2

easy way to calculate quickly.

Yes : but it's not a question about how to pay out on a dead heat

You could get some kind of benchmark from comparing first goalscorer with "to score anytime" markets in soccer.

Not the same thing but might get you on the right lines.

I can only see results for the past 4 seasons, there has been 1 outright and 3 joint winners.

On this limited evidence, the average pay-out if your man had been top or joint scorer in these 4 seasons would be

15 + (7.5 x 3) = 37.5, divided by 4 years = 9.375

Subtract 1 for the odds and you have 8.375 to 1 or 17/2

Thats how you could calculate it

Lori is on the right track gotta be worked out similar to score any time market. . .

Ah sorry, I thought it was one game, yeah if it's a competition then you need historic data and stir in a bit of wit.

The same fred is on the Football forum.

My contribution is Irish. IE if you want directions from A to B then don't start from A.

Actually I like the idea of top goalscorer market for a single match. Would be dead heats all over the place!

El Bandido 11 Feb 13:19
Actually I like the idea of top goalscorer market for a single match. Would be dead heats all over the place!



Seconded. Let's get some markets up.

If no one can work it out, give him a tenner coz he won't know either.

:-)