Probability Question

Smudger you need to know how many runners are in the race . say 10 well the 11 horse cannot win .. its that simple

Ok, do you know the answer if it were a 10 horse race?

Smudg your figs are wrong favs win 33% odds on favs win 40 % ... favs 1/12 or bigger ok over a year they maybe 6 or less they win 92% of the time ....

Yes ...... too within 2 %

So it's not as simple as just using the % then? Too many variables to work it out I guess..?

Depends on what price the fav is ......

Take the Grand National the fav could be 9/1 ......

Take this years Gold Cup the fav will be 10/11 at best .....

Take this years Gold Cup the fav will be 10/11 at best .....

smudger2kuk 08 Feb 13:01
I'm trying to work out the probablility of a horse winning where you only choose from the first 3 in the betting.
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Sounds like you are playing "Russian Roulette"......picking without an edge.

Knowing the stats on favs winning etc is useful......but your ability to select the favs that win...and favs that lose etc is down to each race on its merit.

Don't think the way you suggested can work long term....and it is likely you lose short term........

You are the one that has to attempt to work out a horse's probability to win a race against the whole field............and if the odds are in your favour then it is up to you to decide whether to back it or not.


Gl with bets

Thanks DFCIRONMAN, I wouldn't be blindly picking out of the 3, I'd still study the form etc. I just thought if I only chose from the top 3 or 4 in the betting it would keep my ave. laying odds down. Obviously I'd still need an 'edge' and to find 'value' but just wanted to know the % but obvioulsy every race is different so it's difficult to come to a definative answer.

This is the "problem" ......although races can have similar "shape" re field of runners, the going etc can be different.........

I think what you are concentrating on is very very hard to do with top 3 in betting......but if you do have an edge, it probably can be done successfully.

Take 1st race at LINGFIELD today........I layed TREACLE TART ( no pun intended ]:) :D .........which was I think 4th/5th in betting at odds BF 8......

I forgot the race would not be run on HEAVY going...and would be run on AW track....and was greatly relieved it did not win.....as I should not have layed it on AW track.....a MAJOR error on my part.

Luckily another IRISH trainer surprisingly won race .......no surprise there then to be sure !!!!

If you can combine the lay of 1 horse ,with backing some in race too, using your edge, then this can "work" if your edge is "good".....that is what I have started to do.....BUT I DO NOT RESTRICT LAY TO TOP 3 IN MARKET AS VERY HARD TO DO ( though I will lay 1 sometimes...depending on race).

Worked well on 1st race ..as had winner as a back along with a few others etc.....and the lay subsidised the backs.

Gl with bets.

the public lose money , that's your first clue with still a few more required.

good luck with your research.

In 1.50 race ...have layed TOPLESS ( a TREACLE TART in 1st race and now laying TOPLESS 2nd.......maybe i got get out moreeeeeeeeeeeeeee :D) and backed a few again......

Will be expensive if wrong on lay £240 liability.....but it is just one way of backing that I think will work for me...only started yesterday ...and only had one small hit when fav won and I had layed it small.

Soon see how this goes...

It was a "tough" race to watch...but worked well again for me ...with winner backed small ...and lay kicking in etc.....

Hayden Your spot on Re the public ...... Why they take thier bets out of thier morning paper ,.. no input its Newsboys nap and all that jazz .....