General Betting
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I was wondering what peoples thoughts are on this. I find I do ok for a bit then (due to lack of discipline) lose any gains...I would like to steadily grow my bank! any advice welcome..thanks
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u got to have confodence in yourself and your selections. With a staking plan and decent selections. Picking out value, be it laying our backing. football ht/ft can be quite a good market to lay in. short odds leave your liabilty risk low. What ever your preference is, have a plan of how much u want to make and stick to it. If u find on a given day your selections are beaten, except defeat and stop for that day. Discipline is the key
Forza that is it! discipline, not chasing and not be ruled by the adrenaline ;-)
Spend at least six months betting with a tiny bank so that you won't get emotional about winning and losing.
only way to learn is lose, dont set ur self any targets, that just brings presure, small is more.
good advice - cheers guys - it seems that general betting is so much nicer than football forum!
If you want to succeed, you have to completely get rid of the idea of betting for excitement. That is what mug punters want from their betting, and they will always lose.
The only true pleasure comes from profit.
The only true pleasure comes from profit.
Put in two hundred quid in your account ---- cover your balance up with some black tape .
Back 1% - 2 quid or
lay 1% - 2 quid
LOOK AFTER 2 MONTHS .
Back 1% - 2 quid or
lay 1% - 2 quid
LOOK AFTER 2 MONTHS .
how do you bet a % of your bank if you don't know what your bank is?
Why do punters put the poor spells down to lack of discipline ?
Your biggest enemy is the [b]Greed[/b].
Defeat that and you are golden.
Worked for me LOL.
Defeat that and you are golden.
Worked for me LOL.
You can have discipline and still loose or break even. You have to have the drive, determination and be able to handle the inevitable losing runs.
kenilworth 04 Feb 19:31
Why do punters put the poor spells down to lack of discipline ?
.............................................................................
A rhetorical question I am sure, but I will answer for others benefit.
Because unfortunately ego plays such a large part in the average users wager that they believe it inconceivable that there would be anything astray in their decision making/selection process.
.................................................................................
For me there are three basic elements that must be in place to stand any chance on betfair:
1) You need an edge.
2) Strict money management.
3) You need to control yourself.
Number 3 is about more than discipline. Here endeth the lesson.
Why do punters put the poor spells down to lack of discipline ?
.............................................................................
A rhetorical question I am sure, but I will answer for others benefit.
Because unfortunately ego plays such a large part in the average users wager that they believe it inconceivable that there would be anything astray in their decision making/selection process.
.................................................................................
For me there are three basic elements that must be in place to stand any chance on betfair:
1) You need an edge.
2) Strict money management.
3) You need to control yourself.
Number 3 is about more than discipline. Here endeth the lesson.
kenilworth 04 Feb 19:31
Why do punters put the poor spells down to lack of discipline ?
Because they don't understand what an edge is - or if they do, they don't want to admit to themselves that they don't have one.
Its the new version of the old argument "I do ok, I pretty much get my money back in the long run"....
Why do punters put the poor spells down to lack of discipline ?
Because they don't understand what an edge is - or if they do, they don't want to admit to themselves that they don't have one.
Its the new version of the old argument "I do ok, I pretty much get my money back in the long run"....
it's very simple really just click the logout button
always go green
Not true. True only if the price you can lay off at is value.
(The exception is unless the amount involved is life-changing).
Not true. True only if the price you can lay off at is value.
(The exception is unless the amount involved is life-changing).
(The exception is unless the amount involved is life-changing).
Technically: If your price is close enough to value that you're now exceeding Kelly by letting the amounts above your EV continue to be in play. In that instance it's probable that you're better off taking steps to bring the amount you're gambling above and over your current EV vs Kelly into line.
Technically: If your price is close enough to value that you're now exceeding Kelly by letting the amounts above your EV continue to be in play. In that instance it's probable that you're better off taking steps to bring the amount you're gambling above and over your current EV vs Kelly into line.
bigH 05 Feb 06:53
always go green
Worst advice and sure thing to a decrease in your balance.
Unless you plan to trade on a game you should never green out if your bet is winning.
Lets say you back at 1,5 for 100, your bet are then winning and odds go to 1,2 you now green out to an even profit on all 3 events 1-X-2 if its football match so now you are 25-25-25 on winning rather than being 50/-100/-100, no one can afford to lose 50% of their winnings
Your problem is that you will have losing bets, and if you every time minimise your winning bets by greening out you simply wont be in profit by the end of the month.
You have to look at your turnover of your balance, and realistic you wont win more than 3-5% of that on a monthly basis( unless you bet with extreme risk compared to your balance and then sooner or later you will be in 0 anyway), and by greening out and taking away a lot of your profit (and sometimes save a few £) you simply wont be able to get in black by the end of the month.
always go green
Worst advice and sure thing to a decrease in your balance.
Unless you plan to trade on a game you should never green out if your bet is winning.
Lets say you back at 1,5 for 100, your bet are then winning and odds go to 1,2 you now green out to an even profit on all 3 events 1-X-2 if its football match so now you are 25-25-25 on winning rather than being 50/-100/-100, no one can afford to lose 50% of their winnings
Your problem is that you will have losing bets, and if you every time minimise your winning bets by greening out you simply wont be in profit by the end of the month.
You have to look at your turnover of your balance, and realistic you wont win more than 3-5% of that on a monthly basis( unless you bet with extreme risk compared to your balance and then sooner or later you will be in 0 anyway), and by greening out and taking away a lot of your profit (and sometimes save a few £) you simply wont be able to get in black by the end of the month.
cpfc4me 06 Feb 07:11
always go green
Not true. True only if the price you can lay off at is value.
(The exception is unless the amount involved is life-changing).
You can sacrifice some value when you lay off. For instance say that you have estimated the correct price to be 70 on 7 goals or more before the start of a football game. You are able to back at 95.
In this case, let's say you are able to lay off at 72 (all before the match has started). This would make perfect sense.
Negative expectation bets can increase long term profit. Essentially you are sacrificing value in order to achieve less volatile returns, which in turn means you can safely risk a larger % of your bank per bet.
always go green
Not true. True only if the price you can lay off at is value.
(The exception is unless the amount involved is life-changing).
You can sacrifice some value when you lay off. For instance say that you have estimated the correct price to be 70 on 7 goals or more before the start of a football game. You are able to back at 95.
In this case, let's say you are able to lay off at 72 (all before the match has started). This would make perfect sense.
Negative expectation bets can increase long term profit. Essentially you are sacrificing value in order to achieve less volatile returns, which in turn means you can safely risk a larger % of your bank per bet.
It depends on what you want to do, obviously. As I'm a trader I'll offer some advice from my perspective. If you're new to trading, for me there are 5 simple steps to trading and these form a pyramid with 1. being the largest and at the bottom. These are:
1. Learning
2. Application
3. Survival
4. Mastery
5. Evaluation
Each of the 5 steps can move down to any one of the previous steps. The last stage is always evaluation and constant adapting both of yourself and your approach to the markets.
Survival is one of the most important factors, but with decent learning of your approach and honest application of that approach, survival can be easier.
This is just something I've quickly thought of.
1. Learning
2. Application
3. Survival
4. Mastery
5. Evaluation
Each of the 5 steps can move down to any one of the previous steps. The last stage is always evaluation and constant adapting both of yourself and your approach to the markets.
Survival is one of the most important factors, but with decent learning of your approach and honest application of that approach, survival can be easier.
This is just something I've quickly thought of.
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