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Hello I am a full time arber.
The one thing I have found is that I can now spot a value bet. A good example was Dott -3. This was screaming at me to back but as I do not bet that often i resisted the temptation. As Dott is 5-4 down the bet looks very promising and could be easily traded out. |
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tax question on the bottom of page 1 and start of page 2 with regard to working with other people arbing...
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Hate to be the (h)arbinger of gloom, but your days of tax free living may be soon gone.
Normal gambling using has a negative expectation for the outcome. Tax authorities therefore tax the provider of gambling services (bookmakers) not the player and so therefore do not incur risk of gamblers demanding that losses be offset against tax. Arbers on arboys scale are clearly running a de facto business employing many people with a positive expectation of outcome as by definition arbitrage is very low to zero risk. Why should this go untaxed? What is the difference between an arbitrage business and other zero risk operations such as pool and betting exchanges (zero risk in operating not in set-up). Other issues which may arise are to do with employment and NIC issues, VAT as well as income/corporation tax. Such a high profile operation must also include large transactions through banks so identification of arbers will be simple, as will the turnover through exchanges. Any such attention by the tax authorities will unfortunately focus the spotlight back onto gambling in general which could lead to unfortunate treatment for the rest of us who continue to play as risk-taking gamblers who may win over time - or not! |
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I agree if arboy is operating on that scale and employing other people he is operating a business and is therefore liable for tax...........I'd go back to keeping my mouth shut if I was him.
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with regard to tax i am placing two bets every time i arb. one on a player to win and another on a player to lose. i dont understand how having zero risk makes it more likely for the tax system to change.
98% of punters lose therefore if income tax was introduced on gambling income 98% of people would be able to make a claim of gambling losses to offset against other taxable income on their tax return. you cant tax profits unless u allow losses to be offset therefore this will never happen as the govt would be a massive net loser overall. also the sheer hassle of the govt being able to prove gambling income as so much is done is cash makes it a total non runner for it ever being taxed. |
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Did you back and lay York last night?
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The obvious question to arise from arbboy's claims is if the long term value is usually in the betfair lays and the bets placed with bookies are the losers then why not just stop having these bets?
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I think Thin and crispy is referring to your employees tax position , arbboy .
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i dont understnad how under the current tax laws how the volume u turn over makes any difference to your tax position. if i have 20k at evens and lay 1.95 on here or someone has 100 quid at evens and lays 1.95 what difference does that make for the likeliehood of being taxed. the number of zeros on the end of the bet doesnt change the tax rules.
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rock - i always have an overall edge with the bookie but i try to squeeze as many bad value bets through the bookie so he allows me to contuine to trade with him. this is a skill knowing where and when these bets are that make u look like a mug when u are actually arbing. obviously i am not willing to give this information away but it definitely works as most 20k a year traders dont spot what i am doing and think they are good bets to lay.
having worked in the industry i have asked around traders whether they would lay these types of bets to decent money even though they are arbs and the majority always said they would. |
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arboy, I am not a tax expert so whatever I say or think is pure conjecture.
However, the propensity of any Govt to tax whatever they can is huge. Tax on gambling (or not) is based on case law that goes back to the 1920's and essentially revolves around the issue of offsetting losses, which would make it negative expectation before admin costs so therefore a non-starter. However, this has not stopped other countries, notably the USA, from taxing winnings at source above modest levels irrespective of the net position of the individual involved. The issues involved are a) whether you are deemed to be running a business the definition of which may include employee issues and their tax position as well as yours and b) whether you can truly said to be "gambling" i.e participating in an outcomes with a negative expectation of profit. You fall into the grey area and if only because of the large sums involved will come under scrutiny. The political plus for a Labour Govt might well be a factor in how the tax authorities might treat the case. |
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so how do u differ between what i do and when a prem footballer has 50k going in and out of his bank to and from gaming firms? what would the difference be in a court of law?
assuming identical amounts of money would going in and out of an individuals bank account. is the prem footballer going to be taxed even though they are straight genuine bets because he just happens to be wealthy and can afford it. the rules have to apply for all irrespective of size therefore its impossible for it to ever be administered imo |
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Arbboy, as I have said, this is all conjecture on my part, but let me answer your points.
The difference between you and the premiership footballer is two-fold a) he has a primary employment from which he receives a salary and pays tax. I presume you do not. 2) the key issue is the expectation of positive or negative outcome i.e. profit or loss. When "gambling" the odds which are taken add up to more than 100% (if backers) or less than 100% (if layers) and it is theoretically impossible for all the gamblers to make a profit even without commission charges. However, when you back at one price and "instantly" sell at a lower price your position is no different to currency, or arbers of equities etc.There is no "risk" involved - your expectation is positive, so you are not "gambling" by definition. (Traders who gamble on price movements would not fall into this category) There is also the issue of whether you are conducting a business or not. Identification is a not a problem. Once labeled and categorised as such by the authorities you will have to make tax returns like everyone else. |
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I meant currency changers not speculators
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arbing/gambling will not be taxed in the near future, I really can't be arsed to go into my theorys/reasoning behind this as it would take too long, but in short the hassle of administrating it would outweight the benefits for HMRC. FACT/NAP/1.01
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oh and arboy - I take it you are just going to ignore my question then?
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traderjim
"Gamblers" agree. Arbers? If I were one I'd gladly take your 1.01 as insurance providing "near future" was clearly defined. Fortunately for you, you can put up the price to impress knowing that you do will not have to offer it in reality. |
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Arbboy, with which firms do you bet your 100,000 a day?
I use SproutingOdds mostly, but they won't lay me more than 20,000 on an obvious arb. The discussion about tax is very interesting, especially for someone like myself who makes thousands of pounds risk-free every hour. Thanks for sharing your wisdom. Ignore the cynics. |
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if you have 5 or 6 different bank accounts to use and a busy day across numerous sports and markets why is it so hard to turn over 50-75k a day with on line bookies. you will get 10k on a 1/5 shot quite easily for example
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well thats just another 65k to go
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bump for an interesting thread
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how much have you had on Fiorentina?
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pardon my ignorance whats arbing ?
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arbboy, but surely bookies dont let u bet with different accounts once theyve shut u down? dont u get caught out?
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walofs
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how do you manage nearly 12000 bf points on a monday? at about 300 per every 1000 won or lost your turnover wud av to be in the region of 40k on betfair alone..to arb with the bookies another 40k...most people cant get 2 bob on ..
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arbboy..sound's like you're switched on...you've developed alot of the ideas that I'm mulling over at the moment. Forget about the doubters..they obviously haven't got the patience or knowledge to make it pay. I am a successful profitable punter/arber. Looks like we're playing the same ball game - I've got a few ideas that I'd like to run past you but obviously without thousands of people reading them. Let me know whether you want to web chat or something.
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22-Apr-2008 Fixtures 22 April / Liverpool v Chelsea / Half Time/Full time 44 107,678
22-Apr-2008 Fixtures 22 April / Liverpool v Chelsea / Half Time 46 107,634 you can't arb them markets with bookies as there odds are always worse than betfair unless your using some obscure eastern european bookie and there aren't any that'd lay a decent bet. Anyone can go on oddschecker and see the ladcrooks limit for man utd to win the champions league, its 8000. When I login it's 400. I have 3 accounts in 3 different names and the limits are the same even part of their "owners club" and they won't lay a bet on the phone either. And all this was because i put on 1500 on a golf bet the world cup it was an arb it was a winner so they restricted me permanently. you keep saying you need to be savvy i presume this means have a gamble and pi$s some money up the wall, or take odds off the bookie that are better elsewhere? might as well send them an email and say if you keep my account open unrestricted i'll send you 500 a month as long as you keep producing arbs! its not unusual for a bookie to void a winning bet after the result and say you have duplicate accounts infact they've probably all got it in their rules. and you say bookies take big bets off you why do you think they have bots that close arbs instantly on american sports. And another thing if you was such a good arber you would of been caught out with bookies going bust such as premierbet, lionbets. |
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sportingoptions as well
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just to update the situation on a quiet weds i will post my weds points total so warwick can wonder how it is done. yes warwick i do turn over 40k a day on betfair. not sure why u think it is amazing. maybe i am smarter than i first thought.
Betfair Points Current Discount Rate: 56% ? Betfair Points Balance: 114,325 Betfair Holiday Balance: 1 23-Apr-2008 GB / Worc 23rd Apr / 17:35 3m Hcap Hrd 980 114,158 23-Apr-2008 GB / Nott 23rd Apr / 17:15 1m Mdn Stks 346 113,178 23-Apr-2008 IRE / Punch 23rd Apr / 16:50 2m4f Hcap Chs 1,628 112,832 23-Apr-2008 IRE / Punch 23rd Apr / 16:50 To Be Placed 378 111,204 23-Apr-2008 GB / Perth 23rd Apr / 16:30 2m4f Hcap Chs 746 110,826 23-Apr-2008 GB / Catt 23rd Apr / 16:20 To Be Placed 231 110,080 23-Apr-2008 GB / Catt 23rd Apr / 16:20 1m3f Hcap 220 |
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refuse to earn 45 betfair points on a market like that u dont need a decent bet. 45 points is mickey mouse money
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maybe u boys will start listening and realise u arent that smart as u thought u were. i am happy to post my points total for the rest of the week/month til you actually believe it is true. i would love betfair to come on here and state that i am not lying as well as it wouldnt make any difference to me at all and they would obviously see i am arbing if they could see my whole account.
it makes no odds to me i just dont understand why u contiune to doubt it. i have stated all along it is true and i have never heard one person say good luck to u arbboy take the bookies/betfair down. just total negativity. sad sad boys maybe. i am a happy guy maybe some of u need to smell the roses or become 'savvy' |
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i think the trouble with warwick is he is such a legend on the racing forum for backing 1.01 shots that he forgets the real money is elsewhere. good luck to u warwick i dont care how much u make but ur original statement of an arber cant be a low 2% punter is total rubbish. i will say this again most non trade 2% punters are arbers if not all (with the expection of the odd 100k a bet prem footballer)
i have no axe to grind with anyone i just dont understand the negativity about it all. cant we all win off the mugs? seems like a lot of ego without much substance to me. i havent seen anyone else proof their betfair points balance and challenge betfair to prove it is true on here like i have??????? any reason why boys??? i am totally happy for a betfair source to proof my points balance on the forum. would make no odds to me just to shut all the doubters up. |
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rufuse u are funny. like i said before i have worked in the game for years. i would never get caught out with premierbet or npbet.com going under. i was definitely one of the causes of them going under but i was long gone by the time they actually pulled the plug. i thnk a lot of u guys want to be the man without having much knowledge about the game. i have worked for several major firms at a senior level and took the decision to go it alone and i understand how traders think because i have worked alongside them. i honestly dont think any of you guys have that experience. its so obvious u havent from the way you speak. u dont understand what bets traders like to lay and those they dont even if both are decent arbs. all the battle of keeping accounts open is being smarter than the 20k a year traders. that isnt that hard if u are clued up. maybe u boys need a reality check and to stop betting on golf matchups which are arbs if u wonder why ur accounts get closed so easily.
the responses on this thread are so funny its not true especially from people like warwick who are supposed 'legends' on the horse racing forum |
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i'll wish you all the best arbboy, good luck to you and long may it continue, at first i thought you were bull******* but now i'm not so sure , i think you know what your talking about.
just wish i knew 10% of what you have forgotten. |
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So we should not bet on golf match ups.
I have and never had my accs. closed because of that. Could we have a list of bets to avoid please? |
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Do any prem footballers arb?
If they did they could afford to retire. |
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There is a small arb on the tennis handicaps but my accounts are gubbed.
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arbboy,
Give the forum an example of one of your "live" arbs (after you are on of course). My personal experience is that even when not arbing, continually picking value plays is enough to get you shown the proverbial door. I think this is the case for most of the guys on here and that's why they have a bit of difficulty with your statements. There are one or two firms that will take a lumpy bet on certain markets, but the majority will see you off in a jiffy. |
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23-Apr-2008 IRE / Punch 23rd Apr / 16:50 2m4f Hcap Chs 1,628 112,832
23-Apr-2008 IRE / Punch 23rd Apr / 16:50 To Be Placed 378 111,204 HTF can you arb that much on a 16 runner hcap when the win mkt is always higher on here in such races ? There is no liquidity until live mkt opens and even then its poor. |