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HoppoIrl
31 Jan 10 22:54
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 3,325 | Blogger: HoppoIrl's blog
Does anyone do this with serious results?

How are you getting along.
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Report GPT February 1, 2010 11:13 AM GMT
HoppoIrl
It is a lot harder than 4 or 5 years ago having said that my profits are up year on year which I put down to more knowledge and less people crowding the more complex markets.Speed is much more of a factor these days you really need to place bets in less than a minute unless it is a UK book then you
will have a little more time.
Without a mentor it is very difficult to start now with the intention of becoming full time as you don't really have the "grace period" of easy arbs that existed 4 or 5 years ago to keep you going whilst learning.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:16 AM GMT
whats the best place to start - have you an example of one online now.
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 11:16 AM GMT
which sports do you tend to arb GPT?
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 11:18 AM GMT
go look at the Korolev - Dodig market in the Zagreb tennis for an example of what has happened over the last couple of hours
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:18 AM GMT
anything

soccer I suppose
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:19 AM GMT
what are the best website to use to scan the odds across the bookmakers
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:25 AM GMT
what happened in the Dogig market, I cant see anything
Report buzzer February 1, 2010 11:26 AM GMT
click on the graph and see the odds movement
Report i-only-lay February 1, 2010 11:27 AM GMT
i told you above go to the "thegamblingtimes" forum

dozens doing it everyday and one guy who smashes all the US books make 4k a month without too much trouble
Report slipperynipple February 1, 2010 11:29 AM GMT
I wrote an app that compared the odds of betfair vs** on specific markets with the view that the markets will deviate significantly when in play.

I was very right with this assumption, there is the potential for decent money here, the problem was that with the time delay invariably one of the bets wouldn't get matched...
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:35 AM GMT
doesnt have time on that graph, but I get what you mean.

Checked out the "thegamblingtimes" forum, alot of trading, momentum playing.

Anyway, more I read the more more i believe its a myth or argument people use for betting

What are the best website for checking odds
Report GPT February 1, 2010 11:36 AM GMT
JBHA
Football mostly by a long way,basketball,US sports,tennis anything really check out the volleyball well worth a look.
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 11:41 AM GMT
the lesser sports can be very good, especially around world/european championship time - handball being another one

do you post on any other gambling forums at all?
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:41 AM GMT
dont forget DIFFO TENNIS RULES

made 1k when i was unaware of rule diff on a game.

chap retired and bookie returned my stake and betfair paid me as winner
but can go against you.
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 11:42 AM GMT
and thanks, will keep my eye on volleyball
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:42 AM GMT
change of court service nearly ended my career.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:43 AM GMT
*surface
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:45 AM GMT
waht website are good for checking across bookmakers.
Report GPT February 1, 2010 11:47 AM GMT
Yes handball is good too volleyball has a lot of middle opportunities they all seem to end on roughly the same points at least the womens do.Don't post anywhere else although I used to but too much petty forum politics for me,what you beting on mostly?
HoppoIrl
You are better off checking the book sites themselves odds comparison sites are rubbish in general.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:51 AM GMT
cool that might be a mistake I was using.

any bookmakers you would suggest as first stop for good odds.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:52 AM GMT
mostly looking for the arbs in football, but finding it hard to get anything over 2%
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 11:53 AM GMT
Sorry, I met on forums outside of betfair - I help administer a forum for people like us...

Anyway, I am the same, bet on anything and everything. Best sports are US sports, football & tennis although all have provided good opportunities in the past. It is a bit more difficult now, bookies become tighter every day - there are more people trying to become arbers but in order to become successful there is a lot to learn, together with other essentials which most people just dont have.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:55 AM GMT
^but if you all bet on the same arbs you accounts will get closed down.

NAP.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:56 AM GMT
BIGGEST barrier to entry is the float.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:56 AM GMT
will they close you down after you collect or before they take the bet
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:56 AM GMT
did 500 basketball P POWER

THEN CLOSED.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:57 AM GMT
nothing is a barrier if you can turn a paper profit, which I cannot seem to do. the money i make I could do aswell in a good bank account.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 11:58 AM GMT
you will see videos on u tube .

chaps always fail to advise RULE DIFFERENCES AND fact that an arbing account will last as about as long as a bacon sandwhich at a barmitzvah.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:58 AM GMT
they will not close you down if you bet on one sie with Paddypower and the other side with another bookies, will they.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 11:59 AM GMT
but if you use a few accounts with different bookies, only betting on one side with a single bookie, why would they care.
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 12:00 PM GMT
they care, they close you down - it is all a big game
Report GPT February 1, 2010 12:01 PM GMT
Hoppo
We all have trouble getting over 2% my average is less than that but I hoover up a lot of low % arbs,you have to look at all of them and you will quickly tire of doing that as without being condescending you probably don't know what to look for.
JBHA
I know of that forum well I think I do.
Report tonystip February 1, 2010 12:01 PM GMT
There's a website www.ucantlose.co.uk I think.It sends out arb alerts, but you have to be quick or they disappear from bookies odds or change to disadvantage.You also need about 20 betting accounts ,oh and plenty of money(they advise using credit cards,but my cash transfers were blocked due to money landering regulations) AND be available and near a computer from 9am to midnight to catch every arb as they can arrive to your mobile anytime! Great in theory,but not in practice.I tried the £7 10 day trial and managed to make £5 back.I then cancelled.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 12:01 PM GMT
i had 4k on man utd with lads

BET LOST

and account FINNISH

its a mythn about winning accs being closed

IT IS What you bet on

my humble advice is throw loads of curve balls

bet on loads of games that are not arbs

to throw them off.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 12:02 PM GMT
i ahve been closed down by everywon.
Report Jan1ne February 1, 2010 12:03 PM GMT
lads couldn't even price up a premier league match odds properly?
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 12:05 PM GMT
plenty of sites wont close you down or limit you, so not all is bad
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 12:05 PM GMT
so what is the best approach for gambling fulltime.

Arbs
Low odds
Momentum betting
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 12:05 PM GMT
you need to be like patrick veitch

you need a network of accounts etc

one person will not beat a bookie.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 12:06 PM GMT
gambling full time?

massive reserve funds if goes wrong

and take a casual approach

ie you need to be rich .

otherwise you have breakdown.
Report Jan1ne February 1, 2010 12:06 PM GMT
no use being a mug, for a start
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 12:07 PM GMT
it will take over your life and destroy you if you let it.

just warning you.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
off to lunch.

hardly ever arb any more

no accounts


haha
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
i am curious as wether it can be done.

I have a degree in maths and have been gambling since I was a child, but I always have though it impossible to win in the end.

Would like to test my therory
Report dukeofpuke February 1, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
HoppoIrl 01 Feb 12:45


waht website are good for checking across bookmakers

i use bestbetting but oddschecker is ok

then asian book 188

their odds update all the time they highlight in colour when they move

the odds site update as well with blue odds shortening etc but you may have to click between pages to get updates
Report GPT February 1, 2010 12:10 PM GMT
jonnyg
Lads and billys etc not even worth considering for more than 10 decent bets,I have accounts with plenty lasting more than 7 years you have to be sensible though.
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 12:12 PM GMT
GPT - you probably do know of the forum, it is the only useful one that I know of - provides a lot of useful information if you have the time to read through
Report how do u mark your titleist?! February 1, 2010 12:15 PM GMT
in theory,but not in practice.I tried the £7 10 day trial and managed to make £5 back.I then cancelled.



why would u want to lock in £5 profits, its the poorest form of arbing and i cannot understand it personally, theres money 2 b made in arbin, just not this way
Report GPT February 1, 2010 12:18 PM GMT
JBHA doubt it will teach an old dog anything new will have a look anyway,is JBHA your username there?
Report JamesBlakesHugeArse February 1, 2010 12:20 PM GMT
it isnt - I am jazzmonkey over there
Report GPT February 1, 2010 12:25 PM GMT
I'll take a look.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 1:38 PM GMT
which forum are you talking about
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 1:38 PM GMT
can someone post an arb here to prove the point.,


I am going to start looking now to check
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 1:40 PM GMT
ok i will

hang on
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 1:46 PM GMT
hearts v st mirren

under 2.5 goals

1.8 boyles

1.73 at an exchange.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 1:47 PM GMT
cant find any boxing ones
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 1:47 PM GMT
i will ask the chaps in the boiler room to make some for you.
Report how do u mark your titleist?! February 1, 2010 1:52 PM GMT
jon nyg that aint bad 4 an odds on, onli prob is u gotta have 2k on 2 make it worthwhile, then commission does come into play, 140freeby for 2k, lay the comm off which mayb around 80quid, u got a nice 70odd freeby,
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:00 PM GMT


HoppoIrl 01 Feb 13:09
i am curious as wether it can be done.

I have a degree in maths and have been gambling since I was a child, but I always have though it impossible to win in the end.

Would like to test my therory







I can sort this for you. It can be done but for peanuts. Arbiing on betfair is best if you pay the PC. Again for peanuts but slightly bigger peanuts.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:03 PM GMT


HoppoIrl 01 Feb 14:38
can someone post an arb here to prove the point.,


I am going to start looking now to check





There is an old post from me somewhere on General Betting. Something about me getting fed up with the quality of posting.

That was a boxing arb.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:04 PM GMT
Avoidance of the PC, I think the main theme was but it was also a profitable arb.

I hope all this helps.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:12 PM GMT
hearts v st mirren

under 2.5 goals

1.8 boyles

1.73 at an exchange.



I understand 1.8 at Boyles, 1.73 at the exchange I cant find that, but will you not be betting twice on same thing
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:24 PM GMT
That is not enough to deal on if you pay the PC. It probably just means that you should look at trading goals on that game.

imo
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:29 PM GMT
back 1.8 boyles

lay 1.73 at purple exchange
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:33 PM GMT
**1.8 unders
Coral 2.38 overs

2.5% profit.

Why do you bother with exchanges in this case?
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:34 PM GMT
good point.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:35 PM GMT
enjoy the arb as my max bet with boyles is 0.0000000000
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:36 PM GMT
why do you bother to Lay in a 2 horse race, why not back each side to win.

Serious question, as I am not sure working out odds when laying.

But in a 2 horse race whats the point.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:36 PM GMT
last bet with them was for 26p

haha
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:36 PM GMT
why did they cancel your account
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:37 PM GMT
they dont like arbers.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:37 PM GMT
off for me tea
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:37 PM GMT

HoppoIrl 01 Feb 15:33
**1.8 unders
Coral 2.38 overs

2.5% profit.

Why do you bother with exchanges in this case?






It probably means that the exchanges have moved quicker than the salaried odds compliers on high volume games. On low volume games it probably means that betfair idiots have got carried away.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:38 PM GMT

jonnyg 01 Feb 15:37
off for me tea




Tea?!!

With cucumber sandwiches, I trust.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:38 PM GMT
can anyone help me with the reasons for laying in a two horse race, why not back both side.

Stupid question I am sure, but dont know why,
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:40 PM GMT
You must be fishing.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:42 PM GMT
true
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:42 PM GMT
Jonathan Lebed (born September 29, 1984) is an American notorious for using internet technology to hype stocks.

Between September 1999 and February 2000 Lebed made hundreds of thousands of dollars by posting in internet chat rooms and on message boards encouraging people to buy penny stocks he already owned, thus, according to the SEC, artificially raising the price of the stock. The SEC under Arthur Levitt prosecuted him. In 2001 Lebed and the SEC negotiated an out-of-court settlement in which Lebed forfeited $285,000 in profit and interest he had made on 11 trades without admitting any wrongdoing
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:44 PM GMT
are you implying thid happens with sporting events on exchanges?
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:45 PM GMT
yes

SIR.
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:47 PM GMT
I WILL LET YOU INTO A secret

dont tell anywon

forget about arbing and look at what moves exchange prices.

when you have the answer you will be on the way up.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:48 PM GMT
I said that already jonny. !!! :)
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:49 PM GMT
Thanks,

But how can I use it.

And what should I look for
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:50 PM GMT
Do you guys gamble every day for a living
Report jonnyg February 1, 2010 2:51 PM GMT
only gamble if things go wrong.

you should not gamble ever.

difficult to apply in reality
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer February 1, 2010 2:54 PM GMT

HoppoIrl 01 Feb 15:50
Do you guys gamble every day for a living






That is the whole point. We don't gamble!
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:55 PM GMT
well what should I look out for.

do you cover all your bets or is there some element of risk
Report Mr Ed February 1, 2010 2:55 PM GMT
It is always a slight gamble as one bet can get accepted and then the price moves the wrong way, or the other bet gets rejected.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 2:57 PM GMT
what is the key then.

Do you bet on one then wait and bet on the othert outcome?

Bet on something with the experience to know it will move and then lay it off?

Any arbing?
Report Mr Ed February 1, 2010 3:09 PM GMT
if you feel there is a risk between placing the bets, then you would usually place the one you feel is out of line first as if it all goes wrong then you have a value bet.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 3:10 PM GMT
I would love an exaple, If I pusblish my diaries I will share the profits with you guys
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 3:11 PM GMT
if I spell like that I will never publish a thing
Report GPT February 1, 2010 3:15 PM GMT
No skin off my nose to tell you as I don't do it myself but you will find the Asian books move the lines in Betfair so if you immediately back a falling price you can lay it off nicely 5 minutes later.I'd do this if I could be bothered or liked Betfair neither of which I do a good friend of mine makes a very healthy living doing it,not strictly arbitrage but so what.
Report Mr Ed February 1, 2010 3:20 PM GMT
With the previous arb that was posted, if you were intending to back 2.5 goals @4/5boyle and 2.5 @11/8 coral.

Looking at the rest of the prices, I would back the**price first and then the coral price. If I got refused at coral (v likely) then I could probably cover it elsewhere for a smaller profit.
Report HoppoIrl February 1, 2010 3:22 PM GMT
why not try to back the coral first and if they decline then no harm.

Just move on
Report Jimbo747 February 1, 2010 3:38 PM GMT
The out of line books are usually the european / UK books. Dutch these against yank books like pinnies / or asia sbo AH markets. On horsey racing, bet3.65 4/1 offer is a nice earner too for creating an artifical arb (unless you're lucky)

And never, ever user a public arb site - esp a paid one! You're just asking to be closed down (and some naughty sites now void 'sure bets' linked from an arb site)
Report Mr Ed February 1, 2010 3:52 PM GMT
As the**price is the one that is out, it is the more likely to change.
So, if I back Coral first and the**price changes in the mean time, then I am stuck with a poor value bet.
Report benny_ROBS_roy February 1, 2010 11:06 PM GMT

GPT 01 Feb 16:15
No skin off my nose to tell you as I don't do it myself but you will find the Asian books move the lines in Betfair so if you immediately back a falling price you can lay it off nicely 5 minutes later.I'd do this if I could be bothered or liked Betfair neither of which I do a good friend of mine makes a very healthy living doing it,not strictly arbitrage but so what.



ive noticed that myself its the asian bookies that determine the betfair price, done it with the kaiserslautern game tonight by following the asian price
Report Partridge February 1, 2010 11:27 PM GMT
Mr Ed 01 Feb 16:20
With the previous arb that was posted, if you were intending to back 2.5 goals @4/5boyle and 2.5 @11/8 coral.

Looking at the rest of the prices, I would back the**price first and then the coral price. If I got refused at coral (v likely) then I could probably cover it elsewhere for a smaller profit.


sorry, joking aside, even for an 'arber' or anyone astute enough to consistently make money off betting, no one can actually bet more than £1 at boyles after 1-5 bets surely (not just usual bitter 'bookie wont let me bet' threads)
Report Mr Ed February 2, 2010 10:20 AM GMT
I had one a/c with them that was good for ages.
All the others went very quickly though.
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