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Mudflaps
20 Jan 10 14:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 19 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 223 | Blogger: Mudflaps's blog
Some maths help would be much appreciated ... I want to back over 2.5 goals in the Lens game at 2.60 and cover my stake on that bet if there are only 2 goals by dutching 0-2 (at 20.0), 2-0 (at 12.50) and 1-1 (at 7.0). I want my total risk on all bets combined to be 203.43. I should effectively get somewhere between 1.80 and 1.90 on the win, but I just can't figure out the formula due to being rather dense.

You're guaranteed a mention on my blog www.bfal.blogspot.com for your kind assistance!

Cheers,
Mudflaps
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Report Escapee • January 20, 2010 3:14 PM GMT
Try using a dutching calculator like this one

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html
Report DFCIRONMAN • January 20, 2010 3:17 PM GMT
MFS ...do you not just feed into DUTCHING calculator the 4 bets with total stake 203.43.....and get


20...........15.47 STAKE
12.5 ...... 24.75 STAKE
7............44.20 STAKE
2.60........119 STAKE


TOTAL STAKE 203.43

PROFIT if any of 4 win = 105.98 ignoring commission?????

Link for calculator

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

GL with bets
Report DFCIRONMAN • January 20, 2010 3:17 PM GMT
SNAP :D
Report The Investor • January 20, 2010 3:17 PM GMT
I want my total risk on all bets combined to be 203.43.

Do you mean this is what you want to stake on all bets combined?
You can never lose more than the amount you bet on over 2.5 goals.

So are you splitting 203.43 over the 4 bets or using 203.43 as the stake for your over 2.5 bet?
Report The Investor • January 20, 2010 3:18 PM GMT
You probably mean liability rather than risk?
Report MoneyTree • January 20, 2010 3:20 PM GMT
He has risked his liabilty if its nil nil imo
Report Eldrick • January 20, 2010 3:24 PM GMT
1/20+1/12.5+1/7 = 1/3.665 (overall you are backing a 3.665 shot in correct score market)

say you stake £x on over 2.5 goals at 2.6

you need to stake £x/(3.665-1) on the correct score market for the two goals outcome to cover your £x

you want total stakes to be 203.43 which equals x + x/2.665 therefore x = 203.43/(1+1/2.665) = £147.92 (amount you have on over 2.5) and cover bet on correct score total stake £55.51

to split the £55.51 up to get level profits on 2-0 1-1 0-2, you know each scoreline needs to return a total of £147.92 so take this amount and divide by odds available

0-2 at 20.0 stake 147.92/20 = £7.40
2-0 at 12.5 stake 147.92/12.5 = £11.83
1-1 at 7.0 stake 147.92/7.0 = £21.13

there is a minor complication, you will pay a small amount of comm on these returns so you won't quite cover the stake on over 2.5 if the cover bet wins

i think your bet (over 2.5 / exactly 2 goals no bet) has overall odds 1.89 before comm
Report Mudflaps • January 20, 2010 3:26 PM GMT
Thanks for the input so far but I am not sure that the dutching route is correct.

I want the total stake to be 203.43 on the match, i.e 1 goal or less I will lose this amount.

I want to dutch the 3 correct scores (i.e. to cover 2 goals in the game) to return the stake on the over 2.5 goals bet as insurance.

0-0,0-1,1-0: -203.43
1-1,0-2,2-0: Level
Over 2.5 goals: x profit

I don't know what 'x' is until I can calculate the stakes. Hope that makes more sense.
Report Escapee • January 20, 2010 3:26 PM GMT
if you just want to cover the liability of £203.43 with 2 goal variations then its

£7.99 @ 20
£12.78 @ 12.5
£22.83 @ 7

then £159.79 @ 2.6 for over 2.5 goals.

giving break even for 2 goals, +£212.06 for over 2 goals and -£203.39 for 1 goal or less
Report Mudflaps • January 20, 2010 3:27 PM GMT
Eldrick, you are a genius!! Thanks very much - I owe you a beer.
Report Mudflaps • January 20, 2010 3:29 PM GMT
Eldrick, you are a genius!! Thanks very much - I owe you a beer.
Report Eldrick • January 20, 2010 3:33 PM GMT
welcome

i haven't checked the figures btw, quite easy to make a rick but if it looks ok when you line the orders up on bf market then that's what matters
Report Escapee • January 20, 2010 3:35 PM GMT
Anyone know why my figures differ from Eldricks ?
Report Mudflaps • January 20, 2010 3:42 PM GMT
I don't know Escapee, and thanks for your answer as well buddy.
Report Eldrick • January 20, 2010 3:56 PM GMT
escapee, your stakes on correct scores don't account for losses on the other scores when you hit a winner on one, so you have unequal payouts on 2-0 1-1 0-2

(you are collecting the same amount of total return on each, but then losing different amounts on the others)
Report Escapee • January 20, 2010 4:11 PM GMT
Aha...I forgot about that
Report The Investor • January 20, 2010 4:11 PM GMT
D'oh!

What I said earlier didn't make sense. Apologies :)
Report Eldrick • January 20, 2010 7:21 PM GMT
correction to my first post:

to split the £55.51 up to get level profits on 2-0 1-1 0-2, you know each scoreline needs to return a total of £203.43 so take this amount and divide by odds available

0-2 at 20.0 stake £203.43/20 = £10.17
2-0 at 12.5 stake £203.43/12.5 = £16.27
1-1 at 7.0 stake £203.43/7.0 = £29.06

(previous stakes on correct scores didn't add up to £55.51!)
Report NAGS TO RICHES • January 20, 2010 9:41 PM GMT
this may be useful to you

http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php
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