General Betting
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Some maths help would be much appreciated ... I want to back over 2.5 goals in the Lens game at 2.60 and cover my stake on that bet if there are only 2 goals by dutching 0-2 (at 20.0), 2-0 (at 12.50) and 1-1 (at 7.0). I want my total risk on all bets combined to be 203.43. I should effectively get somewhere between 1.80 and 1.90 on the win, but I just can't figure out the formula due to being rather dense.
You're guaranteed a mention on my blog www.bfal.blogspot.com for your kind assistance!
Cheers,
Mudflaps
You're guaranteed a mention on my blog www.bfal.blogspot.com for your kind assistance!
Cheers,
Mudflaps
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Try using a dutching calculator like this one
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html |
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MFS ...do you not just feed into DUTCHING calculator the 4 bets with total stake 203.43.....and get
20...........15.47 STAKE 12.5 ...... 24.75 STAKE 7............44.20 STAKE 2.60........119 STAKE TOTAL STAKE 203.43 PROFIT if any of 4 win = 105.98 ignoring commission????? Link for calculator http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html GL with bets |
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SNAP :D
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I want my total risk on all bets combined to be 203.43.
Do you mean this is what you want to stake on all bets combined? You can never lose more than the amount you bet on over 2.5 goals. So are you splitting 203.43 over the 4 bets or using 203.43 as the stake for your over 2.5 bet? |
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You probably mean liability rather than risk?
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He has risked his liabilty if its nil nil imo
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1/20+1/12.5+1/7 = 1/3.665 (overall you are backing a 3.665 shot in correct score market)
say you stake £x on over 2.5 goals at 2.6 you need to stake £x/(3.665-1) on the correct score market for the two goals outcome to cover your £x you want total stakes to be 203.43 which equals x + x/2.665 therefore x = 203.43/(1+1/2.665) = £147.92 (amount you have on over 2.5) and cover bet on correct score total stake £55.51 to split the £55.51 up to get level profits on 2-0 1-1 0-2, you know each scoreline needs to return a total of £147.92 so take this amount and divide by odds available 0-2 at 20.0 stake 147.92/20 = £7.40 2-0 at 12.5 stake 147.92/12.5 = £11.83 1-1 at 7.0 stake 147.92/7.0 = £21.13 there is a minor complication, you will pay a small amount of comm on these returns so you won't quite cover the stake on over 2.5 if the cover bet wins i think your bet (over 2.5 / exactly 2 goals no bet) has overall odds 1.89 before comm |
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Thanks for the input so far but I am not sure that the dutching route is correct.
I want the total stake to be 203.43 on the match, i.e 1 goal or less I will lose this amount. I want to dutch the 3 correct scores (i.e. to cover 2 goals in the game) to return the stake on the over 2.5 goals bet as insurance. 0-0,0-1,1-0: -203.43 1-1,0-2,2-0: Level Over 2.5 goals: x profit I don't know what 'x' is until I can calculate the stakes. Hope that makes more sense. |
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if you just want to cover the liability of £203.43 with 2 goal variations then its
£7.99 @ 20 £12.78 @ 12.5 £22.83 @ 7 then £159.79 @ 2.6 for over 2.5 goals. giving break even for 2 goals, +£212.06 for over 2 goals and -£203.39 for 1 goal or less |
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Eldrick, you are a genius!! Thanks very much - I owe you a beer.
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Eldrick, you are a genius!! Thanks very much - I owe you a beer.
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welcome
i haven't checked the figures btw, quite easy to make a rick but if it looks ok when you line the orders up on bf market then that's what matters |
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Anyone know why my figures differ from Eldricks ?
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I don't know Escapee, and thanks for your answer as well buddy.
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escapee, your stakes on correct scores don't account for losses on the other scores when you hit a winner on one, so you have unequal payouts on 2-0 1-1 0-2
(you are collecting the same amount of total return on each, but then losing different amounts on the others) |
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Aha...I forgot about that
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D'oh!
What I said earlier didn't make sense. Apologies :) |
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correction to my first post:
to split the £55.51 up to get level profits on 2-0 1-1 0-2, you know each scoreline needs to return a total of £203.43 so take this amount and divide by odds available 0-2 at 20.0 stake £203.43/20 = £10.17 2-0 at 12.5 stake £203.43/12.5 = £16.27 1-1 at 7.0 stake £203.43/7.0 = £29.06 (previous stakes on correct scores didn't add up to £55.51!) |
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this may be useful to you
http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php |