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FatalStatistics
28 Apr 09 12:10
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 805 | Blogger: FatalStatistics's blog
Testing the theory that this very tough market is in fact quite 'accurate' - By running actual odds of each CS market thru my old Poisson spreadsheet to give 'expected teams goals' and therefore best ' value ' available odds.
Just a theory of course...

Scunthorpe v Cheltenham
0-0 @ 16.50
Barcelona v Chelsea
3-0 @ 18.50
IFK Goteborg v Orebro
0-0 @ 13
Northampton v MK Dons
0-0 @ 12.5
Dinamo Bucharest v Poli Timisoara
0-0 @ 11
GKS Belchatow v Odra Wodzislaw
0-0 @ 11.5
FC Kobenhavn v Nordvest
3-3 @ 180
Alta v Kongsvinger
AnyUnq @ 4.6

(criticism welcomed...)
GL All...
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Report FatalStatistics December 8, 2009 8:50 PM GMT
Reggina v Sassuolo 0-2 @ 32**won***

( Blackpool !! )

72 from 1058 @ 19.41 ( 32.1% ROI )

Colon v Godoy Cruz
0-0 @ 14
Independiente v Argentinos Juniors
0-1 @ 14
Report takethestand December 8, 2009 8:50 PM GMT
2 up

and a 32 winner

well done
Report takethestand December 8, 2009 8:50 PM GMT
2 up

and a 32 winner

well done
Report FatalStatistics December 9, 2009 9:30 AM GMT
72 from 1059 @ 19.41 ( 31.9% ROI )

Dinamo Kiev v Barcelona
1-0 @ 22
Inter v Rubin Kazan
0-1 @ 24
1-1 @ 9.20
Olympiacos v Arsenal
0-2 @ 29

gl All.
Report Rocket to the FACE December 9, 2009 10:22 AM GMT
What's the highest odds you've had come in so far??
Report cynthia purvis December 9, 2009 10:57 AM GMT
Fatal, thanks for the thread, interesting following the last few weeks.
Report FatalStatistics December 10, 2009 10:09 AM GMT
72 from 1063 @ 19.41 ( 31.5% ROI )

Rocket ..( Millwall v Wycombe 0-2 @ 80***won*** ) is the biggest win 'so far'
Thanx Cynth.. ...stay tuned...
Report FatalStatistics December 10, 2009 10:15 AM GMT
Lille v St Etienne
1-2 @ 27
Toulouse v Sochaux
0-2 @ 34
1-2 @ 21
Report FatalStatistics December 11, 2009 8:25 AM GMT
North Queensland v Perth
AU @ 13.50
Report FatalStatistics December 11, 2009 8:56 AM GMT
Aachen v Paderborn
0-1 @ 15
0-2 @ 30
Kaiserslautern v Koblenz
0-1 @ 27
Antalyaspor v Galatasaray
0-0 @ 13.50
Wisla Krakow v Zaglebie Lubin
0-1 @ 27
1-1 @ 11
1-2 @ 40
Westerlo v Anderlecht
1-0 @ 17
Brighton v Colchester
0-0 @ 13

GL All.
Report Roman.Totale December 11, 2009 4:54 PM GMT
Fatal an interesting thread, I assume you have a method for scraping the prices of betfair into your spreadsheet, how do you do this?

I have figures for correct scores but it's too laborious to cross check them against betfair.
Report FatalStatistics December 11, 2009 8:38 PM GMT
72 from 1076 @ 19.41 ( 29.9% ROI )

Roman - you can click and drag from bottom right cnr of any cs market to top left cnr , copy then paste into excel spreadsheet....
GL.
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 3:46 AM GMT
Wellington v Sydney
0-0 @ 15
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 7:30 AM GMT
Motherwell v Celtic
0-0 @ 16
Bochum v B Munich
0-0 @ 17.50
1-0 @ 28
Crotone v Gallipoli
0-1 @ 12
0-2 @ 30
1-2 @ 17
Empoli v Vicenza
0-1 @ 15.50
1-2 @ 22
Freiburg v FC Koln
1-3 @ 44
Frosinone v Cittadella
0-1 @ 12
Hoffenheim v Frankfurt
0-1 @ 26
Lecce v Ascoli
0-1 @ 19
0-2 @ 55
Modena v Mantova
0-1 @ 13
1-2 @ 17.50
Piacenza v Grosseto
AU @ 18
Salernitana v Albinoleffe
AU @ 18
Torino v Sassuolo
1-2 @ 21
Aris Thes. v Asteras Tripolis
0-1 @ 14.50
1-2 @ 29
1-3 @ 120
Report Roman.Totale December 12, 2009 7:42 AM GMT
I've generated some cs for the leagues I cover - it's only a preliminary investigation inspired by your work - i was already covering one correct score angle i've found, that's what made me look at your thread.

Anyway for the games we've both covered and the scores you suggest

I'd be happy to get invovlved at the following prices (if i was anymore than paper trading)

Bochum v Munich
0-0 @ 17.3 or more
1-0 @ 18.0 or more

Freiburg v Koln
1-3 at 36.3 or more

Hoffenheim v Frankfurt
0-1 at 16.6 or more.
Report Roman.Totale December 12, 2009 7:51 AM GMT
I assume 1860 Munchen game is the reserves, I have them down as playing FC Augsberg.
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 7:55 AM GMT
This may or may not help, but ive found that calculating 'percieved value odds' alone is not enough.. when i incorporated the weight of money in the market into calculations, thats when results improved noticeably.
ie; 1-0 @ 28 for Bochum v B Munich may represent value by my 'calculations but if there is 'plenty' of money willing to lay it in the cs market, then perhaps its not actually value ??
If you can find a 2nd 'factor to confirm your first , then i'd recommend using it.
GL
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 7:59 AM GMT
1860 Munich v Augsburg
is bundesliga 2 - i found no 'value' in it.
Report Roman.Totale December 12, 2009 8:34 AM GMT
Just pasted a couple of matches into a spreadsheet just to set the mechanism up for comparing with betfair at a glance, to start some proper testing later..

I'm not recommending these as selections but it threw up the following as value

Brentford v Leeds
1-0 @ 16
2-0 @ 34
3-0 @ 110

Huddersfield v Gillingham
2-0 @ 8.6
3-0@ 12.5

It's just a coincidence that these feature the home team to nils.
Report Roman.Totale December 12, 2009 8:35 AM GMT
I appreciate your comment about a second factor and will give this further thought. Apart from my original angle i'm at a very early stage.
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 10:21 AM GMT
Good luck, keep us posted...

FSV Frankfurt v Rot-Weiss Ahlen
0-2 @ 27
Barnsley v Newcastle
2-0 @ 30
2-1 @ 18
Birmingham v West Ham
0-1 @ 12
1-3 @ 44
Bolton v Man City
1-0 @ 17
2-1 @ 18.50
Brentford v Leeds
0-0 @ 13.50
1-0 @ 16
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 11:45 AM GMT
Burton v Aldershot
0-0 @ 13.50
Carlisle v Wycombe
0-0 @ 14.50
Dag and Red v Bury
1-0 @ 10.50
Huddersfield v Gillingham
0-0 @ 19
L Orient v MK Dons
2-0 @ 23
Notts Co v Accrington S
0-2 @ 50
1-2 @ 22
Oldham v Exeter
0-2 @ 21
Rangers v St Johnstone
0-0 @ 23
Reading v Scunthorpe
0-1 @ 21
0-2 @ 46
Sheff Utd v C Palace
0-1 @ 13.50
Shrewsbury v Grimsby
0-2 @ 42
Southampton v Tranmere
0-0 @ 18
Stockport v Charlton
1-0 @ 18
Torquay v Darlington
1-2 @ 25
Watford v Derby
1-0 @ 9.80
Yeovil v Norwich
2-0 @ 29
Lech Poznan v Korona
0-1 @ 22
1-1 @ 9.60
1-2 @ 30
Albacete v Levante
AU @ 16
FC Wiener Neustadt v LASK Linz
0-1 @ 25
1-1 @ 10.50
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
2-1 @ 30
Rapid Vienna v SV Ried
2-0 @ 9
SV Kapfenberg v Mattersburg
0-2 @ 27
Sp Lisbon v Leiria
1-1 @ 9.60
1-2 @ 36
Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu
0-1 @ 28
Lens v Nice
1-2 @ 15.50
Heerenveen v Feyenoord
0-2 @ 26
1-0 @ 14.50
Twente v Breda
0-1 @ 32
2-0 @ 9
Barcelona v Espanyol
0-0 @ 28
3-0 @ 9
Club Brugge v KV Mechelen
0-0 @ 19
0-1 @ 32
PSV v AZ Alkmaar
2-0 @ 9.60

gl all.
Report FatalStatistics December 12, 2009 9:06 PM GMT
Aris Thes. v Asteras Tripolis 0-1 @ 14.50 ***won***
Brentford v Leeds 0-0 @ 13.50 ***won***
Notts Co v Accrington S 1-2 @ 22 ***won***
Heerenveen v Feyenoord 0-2 @ 26 ***won***


76 from 1147 @ 19.39 ( 28.5% ROI )

Argentinos Juniors v Huracan
0-1 @ 19.50
0-2 @ 55
1-2 @ 27
1-3 @ 140
Report FatalStatistics December 13, 2009 9:47 AM GMT
Cartagena v Salamanca
0-3 @ 100
1-3 @ 55
Atromitos v Xanthi
0-2 @ 24
1-2 @ 18.50
Bielefeld v Union Berlin
0-1 @ 19
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Oberhausen
0-1 @ 22
0-2 @ 48
Larissa v Panionios
0-1 @ 10.50
St Pauli v G Furth
1-0 @ 10.50
Report FatalStatistics December 13, 2009 11:00 AM GMT
ADO Den Haag v Heracles
1-0 @ 11.50
3-1 @ 28
Vitesse v Utrecht
3-0 @ 48
Willem II v Roda JC
0-1 @ 13
Legia Warsaw v Arka Gdynia
0-1 @ 20
1-2 @ 44
1-3 @ 290
AC Milan v Palermo
0-1 @ 26
Atalanta v Inter
1-0 @ 21
2-1 @ 25
Catania v Livorno
0-1 @ 13
Lausanne v Young Boys
0-2 @ 8.60
Olympiacos v Panthrakikos
0-0 @ 30
Sturm Graz v Austria Vienna
0-1 @ 13
Academica v Leixoes
1-2 @ 22
Betis v Gimnastic
0-1 @ 14
Cadiz v Las Palmas
1-3 @ 46
Getafe v Tenerife
0-1 @ 17
0-2 @ 36
Maritimo v Rio Ave
1-2 @ 21
Paris St-G v St Etienne
0-1 @ 16.50
1-2 @ 26
Sochaux v Grenoble
0-2 @ 34
1-2 @ 21
Toulouse v Montpellier
1-3 @ 60
Valladolid v Malaga
0-1 @ 14
Wolfsburg v Dortmund
0-1 @ 19
1-0 @ 13.50
AEK v Levadiakos
0-1 @ 27
0-2 @ 110
1-1 @ 11.50
1-2 @ 42
Atl Madrid v Villarreal
0-0 @ 18.50
0-2 @ 29
Braga v Naval
1-1 @ 11
Gent v Genk
1-2 @ 18
Sampdoria v Roma
0-2 @ 20
Gijon v Sevilla
0-0 @ 12
Newells v San Lorenzo
1-3 @ 110

GL All...
Report FatalStatistics December 13, 2009 7:22 PM GMT
Tigre v River Plate
0-0 @ 14.50
2-0 @ 32
Report FatalStatistics December 14, 2009 10:15 AM GMT
Catania v Livorno 0-1 @ 13***won***

77 from 1201 @ 19.30 ( 23.7% ROI )

Reggina v Triestina
0-1 @ 12.50
0-2 @ 30
West Brom v QPR
0-1 @ 22
Tucuman v Gimnasia La Plata
1-2 @ 21

Been an 'ordinary' couple of weeks now, and the ROI has taken a hit , but hopefully it rebounds now and i can plough on to 100 winners asap...
Report JensK December 14, 2009 6:03 PM GMT
So £100 stakes would have returned £28,463.7 profit so far?
Report FatalStatistics December 14, 2009 9:06 PM GMT
In theory - yes - but id expect not all bets would have matched the full 100
so settling for lesser average odds of around 18.33 total profit would be around 21000.
Still not bad for 2 months...
Hopefully it maintains an ROI above 20% over the 'long long term' - but i am not convinced just yet !
Patience & discipline.
Report FatalStatistics December 15, 2009 10:38 AM GMT
77 from 1205 @ 19.30 ( 23.3 % ROI )

Pohang Steelers v Estudiantes
1-0 @ 16.50
Hereford v MK Dons
0-0 @ 15.50
Carlisle v Bradford
1-3 @ 65
Leeds v Accrington S
0-0 @ 17.50
0-1 @ 30
1-2 @ 46
Southampton v Norwich
0-0 @ 15.50
Stockport v Torquay
0-2 @ 19.50
1-3 @ 32
Man Utd v Wolves
1-3 @ 410
Valenciennes v Auxerre
1-3 @ 55
Report REM December 15, 2009 11:30 AM GMT
don't be convinced by the results

be convinced by the logic
Report JensK December 15, 2009 1:29 PM GMT
1-3 for Wolves? How the heck did you come up with that :D
Report Roman.Totale December 15, 2009 5:24 PM GMT
My figures only cover one game tonight - it throws up the following as value.

Southampton v Norwich

0-2 @ 25
0-3 @ 65
1-3 @ 38
Report FatalStatistics December 16, 2009 10:19 AM GMT
good advice rem,
Spreadsheet throws up the odd one from leftfield jensk !

77 from 1216 @ 19.30 ( 22.2% ROI )

Mazembe v Auckland City
0-0 @ 13
0-1 @ 16.50
1-2 @ 20
Atlante v Barcelona
0-1 @ 9.20
CSKA Sofia v Roma
2-1 @ 16.50
Heerenveen v Ventspils
0-0 @ 19
0-1 @ 28
Lyon v Boulogne
1-2 @ 80
2-1 @ 14
Nancy v Nice
0-2 @ 27
Panathinaikos v Dinamo Bucharest
1-2 @ 30
Inter v Livorno
0-1 @ 30
1-2 @ 42
Paris St-G v Lens
0-1 @ 19
1-1 @ 9
1-2 @ 30
CFR Cluj v PSV
1-1 @ 7.40
Club Brugge v Toulouse
0-1 @ 11
Partizan Belgrade v Shakhtar
1-0 @ 14
Report ROB_D December 16, 2009 3:27 PM GMT
hello mate just beeen readin through ur current attempt at the correct scores and what a sample ur building up. hope it works out for u
cant believe u nearly got tht arsenal fc game and a few other sky high prices
gud luck
rob
Report FatalStatistics December 17, 2009 10:32 AM GMT
"nearly" being the operative word !
but thanks Rob...

Paris St-G v Lens 1-1 @ 9***won***
Partizan Belgrade v Shakhtar 1-0 @ 14***won***


79 from 1235 @ 19.10 ( 22.2% ROI )

Ajax v Anderlecht
0-1 @ 15
0-2 @ 30
Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara
0-0 @ 16.50
0-1 @ 32
1-2 @ 42
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hamburg
0-1 @ 9.80
Benfica v AEK
0-1 @ 19
0-2 @ 48
Everton v BATE Borisov
1-2 @ 21
Fenerbahce v Sheriff Tiraspol
0-0 @ 12
0-1 @ 15
Lazio v Levski Sofia
0-1 @ 23
Steaua Bucharest v Twente
1-0 @ 12
Villarreal v Red Bull Salzburg
0-0 @ 15
Report crescit December 18, 2009 9:43 AM GMT
morning Fatal, pleased to see you are still going strong. I've been crunching the numbers and stats in an experiment on the unders overs market since I last made an appearance here. Just looking at the p&L, I've covered over 600 games probably averaging a tenner a game or so and have a net profit of £17.53 after comm. you certainly got to work hard in this stats torture game.. good luck to you
Report FatalStatistics December 18, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
stick with it cres' , somethin tells me it'll be worth it...
Report FatalStatistics December 18, 2009 10:10 AM GMT
Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara 1-2 @ 42 ***won***
Lazio v Levski Sofia 0-1 @ 23 ***won***


Coupla goodies have restored a bit of faith...

81 from 1249 @ 19.44 ( 26.1% ROI )

Duisburg v Aachen
0-2 @ 30
Koblenz v FSV Frankfurt
1-2 @ 15
Ascoli v Padova
1-2 @ 15
Besiktas v Bursaspor
0-1 @ 15.50
Ajaccio v Nantes
1-0 @ 9.20
Arles v Chateauroux
0-1 @ 12
Brest v Nimes
0-1 @ 13
Tours v Istres
1-2 @ 23
Vannes v Bastia
0-1 @ 12.50
0-2 @ 29
1-2 @ 19
Angers v Metz
0-1 @ 8.60
AU @ 22
Caen v Laval
0-1 @ 16
Clermont v Le Havre
0-1 @ 9.20
1-0 @ 8.80
AU @ 20
Schalke v Mainz
1-2 @ 30
Strasbourg v Guingamp
0-2 @ 22
1-2 @ 16
Grimsby v Morecambe
0-0 @ 14
1-0 @ 14
Hereford v Lincoln
0-2 @ 29
Cesena v Lecce
0-1 @ 9.60
Pacos Ferreira v Braga
2-1 @ 19.50

GL All.
Report FatalStatistics December 19, 2009 6:44 AM GMT
Duisburg v Aachen 0-2 @ 30 ***won***
Clermont v Le Havre 1-0 @ 8.80 ***won***


83 from 1271 @ 19.44 ( 26.9% ROI )

Gaziantepspor v Denizlispor
0-0 @ 12.50
0-1 @ 18
Kayserispor v Antalyaspor
0-1 @ 19.50
1-2 @ 29
1-3 @ 110
Report FatalStatistics December 19, 2009 10:55 AM GMT
Pohang Steelers v Atlante
2-1 @ 17.50
Albinoleffe v Empoli
0-1 @ 9.40
B Munich v H Berlin
0-0 @ 28
1-0 @ 9.80
Brescia v Modena
0-1 @ 13
1-2 @ 17.50
Frankfurt v Wolfsburg
0-1 @ 13.5
1-0 @ 16.50
Leverkusen v Mgladbach
0-0 @ 19
0-1 @ 28
Sassuolo v Salernitana
0-1 @ 16.50
0-2 @ 42
Triestina v Piacenza
0-1 @ 11.50
Bury v Macclesfield
0-1 @ 17
C Palace v Barnsley
1-1 @ 7.80
Charlton v Millwall
0-2 @ 32
Man City v Sunderland
0-1 @ 20
Norwich v Huddersfield
0-0 @ 18
0-1 @ 17
Rochdale v Shrewsbury
0-1 @ 17
1-2 @ 19
Swindon v Brighton
0-0 @ 13
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
3-0 @ 50
Report FatalStatistics December 19, 2009 11:26 AM GMT
( Kayserispor v Antalyaspor is 0-1 at HT ... )

Estudiantes v Barcelona
0-0 @ 21
Cordoba v Albacete
AU @ 17
Hercules v Rec de Huelva
1-2 @ 22
Levante v Cartagena
0-2 @ 22
Panathinaikos v Giannina
1-2 @ 75
Arsenal v Hull
0-0 @ 25
AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag
0-1 @ 36
1-2 @ 40
Bordeaux v Lorient
0-1 @ 20
1-1 @ 9.60
1-2 @ 34
Rennes v Paris St-G
1-2 @ 16.50
Valenciennes v Lens
0-1 @ 12.50
Cercle B v Mouscron
0-0 @ 20
1-1 @ 10.50
Sevilla v Getafe
0-1 @ 22
Waalwijk v Sparta Rotterdam
0-2 @ 22
St Etienne v Marseille
2-0 @ 34
Real Madrid v Zaragoza
2-0 @ 8.60
3-0 @ 10
Naval v Sp Lisbon
2-1 @ 20

GL All.
Report FatalStatistics December 20, 2009 11:03 AM GMT
Kayserispor v Antalyaspor 1-2 @ 29 ***won***
C Palace v Barnsley 1-1 @ 7.80 ***won***


85 from 1314 @ 19.41 ( 25.5% ROI )

Oberhausen v Bielefeld
1-0 @ 14
Hearts v Celtic
1-0 @ 21
Paderborn v St Pauli
0-0 @ 16
1-0 @ 14
Panionios v Kavala
0-1 @ 14.50
0-2 @ 38
1-1 @ 8.20
Report FatalStatistics December 20, 2009 11:38 AM GMT
Juventus v Catania
0-0 @ 16.50
0-1 @ 30
1-3 @ 180
Napoli v Chievo
0-1 @ 15
0-2 @ 32
Palermo v Siena
1-2 @ 24
Roma v Parma
0-1 @ 20
0-2 @ 44
Auxerre v Toulouse
1-2 @ 19.50
Girona v Elche
AU @ 18
Huesca v Castellon
0-2 @ 28
1-2 @ 18
1-3 @ 65
Leiria v Belenenses
0-2 @ 28
1-2 @ 18.50
Lille v Le Mans
0-1 @ 27
0-2 @ 95
1-2 @ 38
Nacional v Academica
1-2 @ 18.50
Setubal v Maritimo
1-0 @ 13.50
2-1 @ 19.50
Villarreal v Santander
0-0 @ 16
0-1 @ 20
West Ham v Chelsea
0-0 @ 19.50
1-0 @ 30
Xanthi v Iraklis
0-2 @ 29
Tenerife v Atl Madrid
0-0 @ 16

GL All...
Report FatalStatistics December 21, 2009 10:24 AM GMT
85 from 1348 @ 19.41 ( 22.4% ROI )

Olympiakos V. v Kalamata
0-1 @ 20
1-1 @ 11
Heracles v Go Ahead Eagles
1-0 @ 9.20
Metz v Caen
0-2 @ 28
1-2 @ 17.50
Report cynthia purvis December 21, 2009 10:35 AM GMT
Hi Fatal,

still sticking around...

was Metz v Caen 0-2 @ 28 ever available?

Good luck in your quest!
Report FatalStatistics December 21, 2009 6:43 PM GMT
typpo there cynth , should be..
Metz v Caen
0-2 @ 25
- thanks.
Report FatalStatistics December 21, 2009 6:44 PM GMT
postponed anyhow !!...
Report Rocket to the FACE December 22, 2009 9:32 AM GMT
I wonder what your figures would look like if you'd greened up everytime you reached a correct score rather than leaving it to run and potentially go past it. I suppose that's another thread for another day.
Report FatalStatistics December 22, 2009 9:51 AM GMT
thats a completely different kettle of fish rocket !!

85 from 1351 @ 19.41 ( 22.1% ROI )

Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor
1-2 @ 15.50
Manisaspor v Besiktas
1-0 @ 12.50
Dijon v Brest
1-2 @ 14.50
Guingamp v Clermont
0-1 @ 11
Laval v Vannes
0-1 @ 11.50
1-2 @ 17.50
Nimes v Istres
0-2 @ 29
Arles v Sedan
1-3 @ 50
Le Havre v Strasbourg
0-1 @ 13
1-2 @ 21
Nantes v Angers
0-1 @ 13
1-2 @ 20
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
0-0 @ 14
Gent v GBA
0-1 @ 15
Lens v St Etienne
0-1 @ 11.50
1-2 @ 18.50

GL All
Report FatalStatistics December 23, 2009 11:12 AM GMT
Nantes v Angers 1-2 @ 20 ***won***

86 from 1365 @ 19.42 ( 22.4% ROI )

Gent v GBA
0-1 @ 15

Lyon v Montpellier
0-1 @ 21
1-2 @ 32
Marseille v Auxerre
0-1 @ 20
1-1 @ 9.80
1-2 @ 36
Nancy v Lille
2-0 @ 28
Nice v Boulogne
0-2 @ 48
1-1 @ 8.60
1-2 @ 27
Paris St-G v Grenoble
0-1 @ 19.50
1-1 @ 10
Club Brugge v Lokeren
1-2 @ 32
Groningen v NEC Nijmegen
1-2 @ 17
Anderlecht v FCV Dender
0-0 @ 34
2-0 @ 8.20
3-0 @ 9
Charleroi v KV Mechelen
0-1 @ 12
Galatasaray v Trabzonspor
0-1 @ 14.50
Genk v Roeselare
0-1 @ 24
1-2 @ 32
2-0 @ 8.40
Standard v K V Kortrijk
0-1 @ 20
1-1 @ 9
1-2 @ 23
Heerenveen v PSV
0-0 @ 18.50
2-1 @ 18.50

gl all.
Report raspberrybottom December 23, 2009 8:48 PM GMT
Blimey ! Lovely day, FS !

WD, mate and a bit unlucky with Nice v Boulogne....

Cracking stuff !
Report FatalStatistics December 24, 2009 10:43 AM GMT
yep bout time too rasp..

Lyon v Montpellier 1-2 @ 32 ***won***
Anderlecht v FCV Dender 3-0 @ 9 ***won***
Genk v Roeselare 1-2 @ 32 ***won***
Standard v K V Kortrijk 1-2 @ 23 ***won***


90 from 1390 @ 19.62 ( 27.1% ROI )

Safe xmas all.

( Heerenveen v PSV rescheduled 17th jan ?? )
Report FatalStatistics December 26, 2009 10:43 AM GMT
Norwich v Millwall
0-1 @ 18
0-2 @ 38
1-3 @ 55
Sheff Wed v Newcastle
1-0 @ 16
Brighton v L Orient
1-0 @ 10
2-0 @ 13
Cardiff v Plymouth
0-1 @ 24
1-2 @ 32
Celtic v Hamilton
2-0 @ 7.80
Crewe v Rochdale
0-0 @ 18
1-0 @ 15
Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock
0-2 @ 42
Leeds v Hartlepool
0-0 @ 17
MK Dons v Stockport
0-0 @ 17
0-1 @ 28
1-0 @ 8.80
1-2 @ 34
Middlesbrough v Scunthorpe
0-2 @ 48
Morecambe v Accrington S
0-1 @ 15
0-2 @ 27
Shrewsbury v Macclesfield
0-1 @ 16
Southampton v Exeter
0-1 @ 24
Torquay v Hereford
1-3 @ 46
West Brom v Peterborough
1-2 @ 32
Yeovil v Wycombe
0-1 @ 13
Standard v Lokeren
0-0 @ 14
0-1 @ 22
1-1 @ 9.20
1-2 @ 29
Charleroi v Roeselare
1-2 @ 19
GBA v Genk
0-1 @ 17.50
Sint Truiden v KV Mechelen
0-1 @ 13.50
1-2 @ 14.50

GL All.
Report FatalStatistics December 26, 2009 9:59 PM GMT
Cardiff v Plymouth 0-1 @ 24 ***won***
Celtic v Hamilton 2-0 @ 7.80 ***won***

.
92 from 1423 @ 19.54 ( 26.3% ROI )

just 8 winners to go and thats it...
Report master of multys December 26, 2009 10:13 PM GMT
great thread
Report FatalStatistics December 27, 2009 10:18 AM GMT
thanks 'mom'

Hibernian v Rangers
0-0 @ 12.50
Arsenal v Aston Villa
0-1 @ 20
Hull v Man Utd
1-0 @ 30
Gent v Anderlecht
0-0 @ 16
Report FatalStatistics December 28, 2009 7:21 AM GMT
92 from 1427 @ 19.54 ( 26.0% ROI )

Barnsley v Middlesbrough
0-1 @ 10
Blackburn v Sunderland
0-1 @ 12
Bournemouth v Torquay
1-2 @ 19.50
Bradford v Shrewsbury
0-1 @ 13.50
Bristol City v Watford
0-1 @ 12.50
0-2 @ 25
Chelsea v Fulham
0-0 @ 15.50
Dag and Red v Cheltenham
1-2 @ 21
Everton v Burnley
0-1 @ 21
1-2 @ 28
1-3 @ 100
Hereford v Aldershot
2-0 @ 17.50
Huddersfield v MK Dons
1-2 @ 16
Macclesfield v Crewe
1-0 @ 13
Millwall v Bristol Rovers
0-1 @ 15
Peterborough v Cardiff
1-0 @ 13
Scunthorpe v West Brom
1-0 @ 17.50
Sheff Utd v Preston
0-1 @ 15
1-2 @ 19
Swansea v C Palace
0-1 @ 12
1-2 @ 17.50
Swindon v Yeovil
0-1 @ 14.50
Walsall v Norwich
1-0 @ 13.50
Newcastle v Derby
0-0 @ 15
1-2 @ 38

GL All.
Report FatalStatistics December 28, 2009 10:32 AM GMT
Stockport v Leeds
0-0 @ 18.50
1-0 @ 29
Tottenham v West Ham
1-2 @ 29
Report FatalStatistics December 28, 2009 9:53 PM GMT
Newcastle v Derby 0-0 @ 15 ***won***

93 from 1453 @ 19.49 ( 24.8% ROI )

Nagoya v Shimizu
0-1 @ 18
Report FatalStatistics December 29, 2009 9:46 AM GMT
Cercle B v Standard
0-1 @ 10
Report FatalStatistics December 30, 2009 10:12 AM GMT
93 from 1455 @ 19.49 ( 23.6% )

Churchill Brothers SC v Shillong Lajong FC
0-1 @ 28
K V Kortrijk v Club Brugge
0-0 @ 14.50
2-1 @ 15.50
Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem
0-0 @ 17.50
0-1 @ 27
Lokeren v GBA
3-1 @ 34
Hearts v Motherwell
1-2 @ 18
1-3 @ 55
Portsmouth v Arsenal
1-1 @ 9.60
Rangers v Dundee Utd
0-0 @ 19.50

GL All..
( be back in the new year to finish this torture ! )
Report buzzer December 30, 2009 3:19 PM GMT
a nice 0-1 earlier for you ;)
Report JensK January 2, 2010 12:20 PM GMT
any FA cup correct scores?
Report JensK January 3, 2010 9:39 AM GMT
.
Report JensK January 4, 2010 3:45 PM GMT
.
Report FatalStatistics January 5, 2010 12:38 AM GMT
Churchill Brothers SC v Shillong Lajong FC 0-1 @ 28 ***won***

94 from 1465 @ 19.58 ( 25.6% ROI )

(thanks Jensk !!)
Report FatalStatistics January 5, 2010 10:30 AM GMT
Larissa v Asteras Tripolis
1-2 @ 19
Ancona v Triestina
0-1 @ 14
0-2 @ 36
Crotone v Cittadella
0-1 @ 13
1-2 @ 16.50
Empoli v Sassuolo
0-2 @ 32
Lecce v Vicenza
0-1 @ 14.50
0-2 @ 38
1-2 @ 20
Piacenza v Gallipoli
0-1 @ 11
Reggina v Grosseto
0-1 @ 14.50
0-2 @ 34
Torino v Mantova
0-1 @ 15
0-2 @ 55
1-3 @ 130
Porto v Leixoes
0-1 @ 30
1-1 @ 11.50
1-2 @ 46
Salernitana v Brescia
1-0 @ 10

GL ( in 2010) All.
Report FatalStatistics January 6, 2010 10:09 AM GMT
94 from 1484 @ 19.58 ( 24.1% ROI )

Giannina v Xanthi
1-2 @ 17.50
Iraklis v Panthrakikos
0-1 @ 30
Atalanta v Napoli
0-1 @ 10.50
Cagliari v Roma
0-1 @ 11.50
Catania v Bologna
0-1 @ 13
Lazio v Livorno
0-1 @ 14.50
0-2 @ 40
Parma v Juventus
1-0 @ 11.50
Panathinaikos v Ergotelis
0-0 @ 16.50
0-1 @ 36
1-2 @ 55
Olympiacos v AEK
1-2 @ 30
Report FatalStatistics January 6, 2010 6:21 PM GMT
Olympiacos v AEK 1-2 @ 30 ***won***

AC Milan v Genoa
0-1 @ 21
Report FatalStatistics January 7, 2010 6:09 PM GMT
95 from 1497 @ 19.70 ( 24.9% ROI )

Malaga v Getafe
0-1 @ 9.40
0-2 @ 15
Report FatalStatistics January 8, 2010 8:59 AM GMT
West Brom v Nottm Forest
0-1 @ 15
Braga v Nacional
0-1 @ 14.50
1-2 @ 25
1-3 @ 100

GL All.
Report SA - Lacks middle pace - Faded January 8, 2010 9:35 AM GMT
Fatal, An interesting thread, which I recall part reading at the outset for a while, pleased to see it has continued in a good profit for you.

3 quick questions if I may, firstly the Arsenal game 1-3 130/1, do you know the lowest price 1-3 traded at and was you tempted to get out. Have you considered taking profits out of big priced games along the way.

Also I note that quite a few of your selected scores are shall we say the less expected I think Wolves v Man Utd 3-1 was one, is this because your spreadsheet is picking out the larger differentials between price and expectancy, where prices on here on outsiders are always likely to be inflated. Do you guard against this.

Thanks for your time and GL
Report FatalStatistics January 9, 2010 9:03 AM GMT
SA - no sorry i dont know the Arsenal price , betfair historical data is the go if you really want that data.
And no not tempted to 'get out' because i have looked into that 'tactic' and fail to see
why or how it can be any 'more' profitable than riding out the bet.
( but i'll stand corrected if anyone can 'prove' it to me...)
And as for 'guarding against inflated outsider's prices" - I think this is exactly what i'm looking for and where i am currently being profitable.
I am not discouraged by big prices.. this is a long haul system.
ie; 10% value at 100/1 pays me 110 or 10% value at 10/1 pays me 11
i theoretically get 1 of the 100/1 winners or 10 of the 10/1 winners, but same profit over 100 bets so whats it matter, or is that too simplistic of me ??
Thanks for the input and GL to you.
Report FatalStatistics January 9, 2010 9:52 AM GMT
Colmar v Lille
0-0 @ 18
1-1 @ 13
Albinoleffe v Reggina
AU @ 18.50
Brescia v Padova
0-1 @ 15.50
1-2 @ 23
Cesena v Piacenza
0-1 @ 14.50
1-2 @ 20
Triestina v Frosinone
0-1 @ 14
1-2 @ 17.50
AU @ 15.50
Xanthi v Panathinaikos
1-0 @ 14.50
2-1 @ 29
3-1 @ 130
Arsenal v Everton
0-1 @ 30
Coventry v Barnsley
0-0 @ 12.50
Derby v Scunthorpe
0-1 @ 15.50
Leeds v Wycombe
0-1 @ 42
1-1 @ 14.50
Norwich v Exeter
0-0 @ 18.50
0-1 @ 30
Gimnastic v Celta Vigo
AU @ 19
Levadiakos v PAOK
2-0 @ 40
2-1 @ 25
Maritimo v Guimaraes
0-1 @ 10
1-2 @ 15.50
1-3 @ 48
Murcia v Elche
3-1 @ 28
Sociedad v Cadiz
0-1 @ 16.50
0-2 @ 48
Birmingham v Man Utd
3-1 @ 110
Monaco v Tours
0-1 @ 15.50
1-2 @ 22
Sevilla v Santander
0-1 @ 20
Inter v Siena
0-0 @ 19
0-1 @ 46
Le Mans v Valenciennes
1-2 @ 14.50
Rennes v Caen
1-2 @ 21
Rio Ave v Benfica
2-1 @ 24
Report FatalStatistics January 9, 2010 10:32 PM GMT
Leeds v Wycombe 1-1 @ 14.50 ***won***
Maritimo v Guimaraes 0-1 @ 10 ***won***


97 from 1539 @ 19.54 ( 23.2% ROI )

crawling to the magic 100
- and should still be over 20% !!
_ then it'll be Cartwheel time !!
Report FatalStatistics January 10, 2010 9:37 AM GMT
Hercules v Cartagena
0-1 @ 13.50
Orduspor v Galatasaray
0-0 @ 17.50
1-0 @ 28
Report Rocket to the FACE January 10, 2010 9:45 AM GMT
Well done! What's the next stage after you reach 100?
Report FatalStatistics January 10, 2010 9:55 AM GMT
Rocket - next stage for me is to start staking 'serious'. I am pessimistic by nature and have only bet minimum stakes right thru these tests. But over 20% ROI is enough to bury my pessimism - mostly !
I have conjured up further 'tweaks' to the spreadsheet - but i am loathe to implement them as i do beleive in the ol' saying "if it aint broke - dont**it", so i'll leave as is and run with it....
Report FatalStatistics January 10, 2010 10:27 AM GMT
Hamilton v Rangers
0-0 @ 19.50
Asteras Tripolis v Kavala
0-2 @ 28
1-2 @ 19.50
Olympiacos v Larissa
2-2 @ 65
Bologna v Cagliari
0-1 @ 10.50
Fiorentina v Bari
0-1 @ 17
1-2 @ 24
Genoa v Catania
0-1 @ 18.50
Napoli v Sampdoria
1-2 @ 19.50
Palermo v Atalanta
0-1 @ 18
1-2 @ 23
Report FatalStatistics January 10, 2010 11:00 AM GMT
Aris Thes. v Iraklis
0-1 @ 17
0-2 @ 55
1-2 @ 34
Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano
AU @ 21
Deportivo v Osasuna
1-2 @ 18
Girona v Las Palmas
0-1 @ 10.50
Levante v Real Union
0-1 @ 13
AEK v Atromitos
1-1 @ 10
Academica v Naval
0-1 @ 12
1-2 @ 18.50

GL All.
Report FatalStatistics January 10, 2010 6:15 PM GMT
Bologna v Cagliari 0-1 @ 10.50 ***won***

98 from 1562 @ 19.45 ( 22.0% ROI )

Juventus v AC Milan
0-1 @ 11
Porto v Leiria
0-0 @ 16
Report FatalStatistics January 12, 2010 10:15 AM GMT
98 from 1564 @ 19.45 ( 21.9% ROI )

Besiktas v Kasimpasa
0-1 @ 26
Tours v Istres
1-2 @ 24
Birmingham v Nottm Forest
0-0 @ 9.80
1-3 @ 85
Roma v Triestina
0-0 @ 26
0-1 @ 48
3-0 @ 9.80
Report FatalStatistics January 12, 2010 6:25 PM GMT
St Mirren v Aberdeen
1-2 @ 14.50
Coventry v Portsmouth
1-0 @ 10
Le Mans v Bordeaux
1-0 @ 13.50
2-0 @ 38
2-1 @ 23
Report FatalStatistics January 13, 2010 9:49 AM GMT
98 from 1572 @ 19.45 ( 21.2% ROI )

Altay v Eskisehirspor
1-3 @ 36
3-1 @ 32
Denizli Belediyespor v Orduspor
1-0 @ 13.50
AC Milan v Novara
0-1 @ 42
Bursaspor v Tarsus Idman Yurdu
1-1 @ 17.50
Guingamp v Paris St-G
1-0 @ 12.50
Lens v Lorient
1-2 @ 16.50
Lille v Rennes
0-2 @ 34
Toulouse v Nancy
0-1 @ 11
Fenerbahce v Tokatspor
0-0 @ 27
1-1 @ 17.50
Academica v Porto
1-0 @ 13.50
Osasuna v Hercules
1-2 @ 21
Santander v Alcorcon
1-2 @ 27
Report crescit January 13, 2010 10:01 AM GMT
would be good to see you reach the magic 100 today Fatal! GL
Report FatalStatistics January 13, 2010 6:12 PM GMT
Guingamp v Paris St-G 1-0 @ 12.50 ***won***

1 to go ...
Report FatalStatistics January 13, 2010 6:21 PM GMT
Juventus v Napoli
0-0 @ 13
Sevilla v Barcelona
0-1 @ 11.50
1-0 @ 19
Leiria v Sp Lisbon
1-0 @ 11.50
Report cynthia purvis January 13, 2010 10:41 PM GMT
Great stuff, Fatal. Really enjoyed the first 100. Will you be keeping us informed about your next step?
Report Rocket to the FACE January 13, 2010 10:43 PM GMT
fancy sending me the original spreadsheet before the tweeks?
Report raspberrybottom January 14, 2010 6:49 AM GMT
Almost there now, mate. Well done.... :)
Report FatalStatistics January 14, 2010 6:55 AM GMT
Lens v Lorient 1-2 @ 16.50 ***won***
Sevilla v Barcelona 0-1 @ 11.50 ***won***



Final Stats..

101 from 1590 @ 19.27 ( 22.4% ROI )

Hallelujah brothers !

IT CAN BE DONE !!.
Report gleeman January 14, 2010 8:17 AM GMT
Well done Fatal. I hope you make your fortune!
Report Rocket to the FACE January 14, 2010 8:42 AM GMT
Excellent stuff, what a thread. Looking forward to the next one if there will be one.
Report FatalStatistics January 14, 2010 10:54 AM GMT
Rocket - no point really, sending out spreadsheets without very detailed explanations & i aint keen on the 'dead' time involved in that - sorry.
Cynth - I'll keep stats for this method updated if you wish but dont think i'll continue posting every bet as it is quite laborious.
And everyone else - i genuinely thank you all for your well wishes and input along the way, it definitely helped me through those 'dark times ' ...
And finally , a very big " Good Luck All " for your own
'Correct Score Torture'.
Report crescit January 14, 2010 2:34 PM GMT
nice one Fatal, would be good to hear how you are getting on from time to time
Report raspberrybottom January 14, 2010 4:20 PM GMT
WD Fatal. As above post - it would be great if you posted now and then to let us know how it's going.

Good luck.... :)
Rasp.
Report REM January 14, 2010 10:04 PM GMT
FS - why do you think this works (ok, apart from makin a profit)?
Report Rocket to the FACE January 15, 2010 2:36 PM GMT
Not sure if you've already answered this but what dictated the number of bets you put on each game? Sometimes you only put on one correct score other times two or three.
Report FatalStatistics January 18, 2010 9:58 AM GMT
Thank you cres & rasp, will do.
Rocket - My spreadsheet comes up with a figure for each cs, if it is over the value threshold it qualifies if not it doesnt. sometimes none, sometimes one ,sometimes multiple... you've gotta decide where to draw the line and stick to it.
Rem - thats a tough one.. my theory is that although there is no doubt correct score markets in general are 'accurate' ( ie over 100 matches ) individual cs's are not necessarily so. When you look at a cs market surely you would see some cs's and say 'thats unders' or 'thats overs'.. ? but i dont trust my instincts , so a statistical and probability based spreadsheet pointing me in the right direction is far more 'convincing' and reliable.
With that in mind i eventually tweaked my spreadsheet with factors that now give me a better than 20 % edge in finding the cs's that are over the odds. Thats why it works - perhaps.
( but to be honest i dont really care 'why' it works !! )( it just works !! )
GL ALL.
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