Testing the theory that this very tough market is in fact quite 'accurate' - By running actual odds of each CS market thru my old Poisson spreadsheet to give 'expected teams goals' and therefore best ' value ' available odds. Just a theory of course...
Scunthorpe v Cheltenham 0-0 @ 16.50 Barcelona v Chelsea 3-0 @ 18.50 IFK Goteborg v Orebro 0-0 @ 13 Northampton v MK Dons 0-0 @ 12.5 Dinamo Bucharest v Poli Timisoara 0-0 @ 11 GKS Belchatow v Odra Wodzislaw 0-0 @ 11.5 FC Kobenhavn v Nordvest 3-3 @ 180 Alta v Kongsvinger AnyUnq @ 4.6
Colon v Godoy Cruz 0-0 @ 14 Independiente v Argentinos Juniors 0-1 @ 14
Reggina v Sassuolo 0-2 @ 32**won***( Blackpool !! )72 from 1058 @ 19.41 ( 32.1% ROI )Colon v Godoy Cruz 0-0 @ 14Independiente v Argentinos Juniors0-1 @ 14
Aachen v Paderborn 0-1 @ 15 0-2 @ 30 Kaiserslautern v Koblenz 0-1 @ 27 Antalyaspor v Galatasaray 0-0 @ 13.50 Wisla Krakow v Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 @ 27 1-1 @ 11 1-2 @ 40 Westerlo v Anderlecht 1-0 @ 17 Brighton v Colchester 0-0 @ 13
GL All.
Aachen v Paderborn0-1 @ 150-2 @ 30Kaiserslautern v Koblenz0-1 @ 27Antalyaspor v Galatasaray 0-0 @ 13.50Wisla Krakow v Zaglebie Lubin0-1 @ 271-1 @ 111-2 @ 40Westerlo v Anderlecht 1-0 @ 17Brighton v Colchester0-0 @ 13GL All.
Fatal an interesting thread, I assume you have a method for scraping the prices of betfair into your spreadsheet, how do you do this?
I have figures for correct scores but it's too laborious to cross check them against betfair.
Fatal an interesting thread, I assume you have a method for scraping the prices of betfair into your spreadsheet, how do you do this?I have figures for correct scores but it's too laborious to cross check them against betfair.
Roman - you can click and drag from bottom right cnr of any cs market to top left cnr , copy then paste into excel spreadsheet.... GL.
72 from 1076 @ 19.41 ( 29.9% ROI )Roman - you can click and drag from bottom right cnr of any cs market to top left cnr , copy then paste into excel spreadsheet....GL.
Motherwell v Celtic 0-0 @ 16 Bochum v B Munich 0-0 @ 17.50 1-0 @ 28 Crotone v Gallipoli 0-1 @ 12 0-2 @ 30 1-2 @ 17 Empoli v Vicenza 0-1 @ 15.50 1-2 @ 22 Freiburg v FC Koln 1-3 @ 44 Frosinone v Cittadella 0-1 @ 12 Hoffenheim v Frankfurt 0-1 @ 26 Lecce v Ascoli 0-1 @ 19 0-2 @ 55 Modena v Mantova 0-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 17.50 Piacenza v Grosseto AU @ 18 Salernitana v Albinoleffe AU @ 18 Torino v Sassuolo 1-2 @ 21 Aris Thes. v Asteras Tripolis 0-1 @ 14.50 1-2 @ 29 1-3 @ 120
Motherwell v Celtic0-0 @ 16Bochum v B Munich0-0 @ 17.501-0 @ 28Crotone v Gallipoli0-1 @ 120-2 @ 301-2 @ 17Empoli v Vicenza 0-1 @ 15.501-2 @ 22Freiburg v FC Koln1-3 @ 44Frosinone v Cittadella 0-1 @ 12Hoffenheim v Frankfurt 0-1 @ 26Lecce v Ascoli 0-1 @
I've generated some cs for the leagues I cover - it's only a preliminary investigation inspired by your work - i was already covering one correct score angle i've found, that's what made me look at your thread.
Anyway for the games we've both covered and the scores you suggest
I'd be happy to get invovlved at the following prices (if i was anymore than paper trading)
Bochum v Munich 0-0 @ 17.3 or more 1-0 @ 18.0 or more
Freiburg v Koln 1-3 at 36.3 or more
Hoffenheim v Frankfurt 0-1 at 16.6 or more.
I've generated some cs for the leagues I cover - it's only a preliminary investigation inspired by your work - i was already covering one correct score angle i've found, that's what made me look at your thread.Anyway for the games we've both covered
This may or may not help, but ive found that calculating 'percieved value odds' alone is not enough.. when i incorporated the weight of money in the market into calculations, thats when results improved noticeably. ie; 1-0 @ 28 for Bochum v B Munich may represent value by my 'calculations but if there is 'plenty' of money willing to lay it in the cs market, then perhaps its not actually value ?? If you can find a 2nd 'factor to confirm your first , then i'd recommend using it. GL
This may or may not help, but ive found that calculating 'percieved value odds' alone is not enough.. when i incorporated the weight of money in the market into calculations, thats when results improved noticeably.ie; 1-0 @ 28 for Bochum v B Muni
Just pasted a couple of matches into a spreadsheet just to set the mechanism up for comparing with betfair at a glance, to start some proper testing later..
I'm not recommending these as selections but it threw up the following as value
Brentford v Leeds 1-0 @ 16 2-0 @ 34 3-0 @ 110
Huddersfield v Gillingham 2-0 @ 8.6 3-0@ 12.5
It's just a coincidence that these feature the home team to nils.
Just pasted a couple of matches into a spreadsheet just to set the mechanism up for comparing with betfair at a glance, to start some proper testing later..I'm not recommending these as selections but it threw up the following as valueBrentford v Lee
FSV Frankfurt v Rot-Weiss Ahlen 0-2 @ 27 Barnsley v Newcastle 2-0 @ 30 2-1 @ 18 Birmingham v West Ham 0-1 @ 12 1-3 @ 44 Bolton v Man City 1-0 @ 17 2-1 @ 18.50 Brentford v Leeds 0-0 @ 13.50 1-0 @ 16
Good luck, keep us posted...FSV Frankfurt v Rot-Weiss Ahlen0-2 @ 27Barnsley v Newcastle2-0 @ 302-1 @ 18Birmingham v West Ham0-1 @ 121-3 @ 44Bolton v Man City1-0 @ 172-1 @ 18.50Brentford v Leeds0-0 @ 13.501-0 @ 16
Burton v Aldershot 0-0 @ 13.50 Carlisle v Wycombe 0-0 @ 14.50 Dag and Red v Bury 1-0 @ 10.50 Huddersfield v Gillingham 0-0 @ 19 L Orient v MK Dons 2-0 @ 23 Notts Co v Accrington S 0-2 @ 50 1-2 @ 22 Oldham v Exeter 0-2 @ 21 Rangers v St Johnstone 0-0 @ 23 Reading v Scunthorpe 0-1 @ 21 0-2 @ 46 Sheff Utd v C Palace 0-1 @ 13.50 Shrewsbury v Grimsby 0-2 @ 42 Southampton v Tranmere 0-0 @ 18 Stockport v Charlton 1-0 @ 18 Torquay v Darlington 1-2 @ 25 Watford v Derby 1-0 @ 9.80 Yeovil v Norwich 2-0 @ 29 Lech Poznan v Korona 0-1 @ 22 1-1 @ 9.60 1-2 @ 30 Albacete v Levante AU @ 16 FC Wiener Neustadt v LASK Linz 0-1 @ 25 1-1 @ 10.50 Iraklis v Panathinaikos 2-1 @ 30 Rapid Vienna v SV Ried 2-0 @ 9 SV Kapfenberg v Mattersburg 0-2 @ 27 Sp Lisbon v Leiria 1-1 @ 9.60 1-2 @ 36 Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu 0-1 @ 28 Lens v Nice 1-2 @ 15.50 Heerenveen v Feyenoord 0-2 @ 26 1-0 @ 14.50 Twente v Breda 0-1 @ 32 2-0 @ 9 Barcelona v Espanyol 0-0 @ 28 3-0 @ 9 Club Brugge v KV Mechelen 0-0 @ 19 0-1 @ 32 PSV v AZ Alkmaar 2-0 @ 9.60
gl all.
Burton v Aldershot0-0 @ 13.50Carlisle v Wycombe0-0 @ 14.50Dag and Red v Bury 1-0 @ 10.50Huddersfield v Gillingham0-0 @ 19L Orient v MK Dons2-0 @ 23Notts Co v Accrington S0-2 @ 501-2 @ 22Oldham v Exeter0-2 @ 21Rangers v St Johnstone 0-0 @ 23Reading v
Aris Thes. v Asteras Tripolis 0-1 @ 14.50 ***won*** Brentford v Leeds 0-0 @ 13.50 ***won*** Notts Co v Accrington S 1-2 @ 22 ***won*** Heerenveen v Feyenoord 0-2 @ 26 ***won***
76 from 1147 @ 19.39 ( 28.5% ROI )
Argentinos Juniors v Huracan 0-1 @ 19.50 0-2 @ 55 1-2 @ 27 1-3 @ 140
Aris Thes. v Asteras Tripolis 0-1 @ 14.50 ***won***Brentford v Leeds 0-0 @ 13.50 ***won***Notts Co v Accrington S 1-2 @ 22 ***won***Heerenveen v Feyenoord 0-2 @ 26 ***won***76 from 1147 @ 19.39 ( 28.5% ROI )Argentinos Juniors
Cartagena v Salamanca 0-3 @ 100 1-3 @ 55 Atromitos v Xanthi 0-2 @ 24 1-2 @ 18.50 Bielefeld v Union Berlin 0-1 @ 19 Fortuna Dusseldorf v Oberhausen 0-1 @ 22 0-2 @ 48 Larissa v Panionios 0-1 @ 10.50 St Pauli v G Furth 1-0 @ 10.50
Cartagena v Salamanca0-3 @ 1001-3 @ 55Atromitos v Xanthi0-2 @ 241-2 @ 18.50Bielefeld v Union Berlin0-1 @ 19Fortuna Dusseldorf v Oberhausen0-1 @ 220-2 @ 48Larissa v Panionios0-1 @ 10.50St Pauli v G Furth1-0 @ 10.50
ADO Den Haag v Heracles 1-0 @ 11.50 3-1 @ 28 Vitesse v Utrecht 3-0 @ 48 Willem II v Roda JC 0-1 @ 13 Legia Warsaw v Arka Gdynia 0-1 @ 20 1-2 @ 44 1-3 @ 290 AC Milan v Palermo 0-1 @ 26 Atalanta v Inter 1-0 @ 21 2-1 @ 25 Catania v Livorno 0-1 @ 13 Lausanne v Young Boys 0-2 @ 8.60 Olympiacos v Panthrakikos 0-0 @ 30 Sturm Graz v Austria Vienna 0-1 @ 13 Academica v Leixoes 1-2 @ 22 Betis v Gimnastic 0-1 @ 14 Cadiz v Las Palmas 1-3 @ 46 Getafe v Tenerife 0-1 @ 17 0-2 @ 36 Maritimo v Rio Ave 1-2 @ 21 Paris St-G v St Etienne 0-1 @ 16.50 1-2 @ 26 Sochaux v Grenoble 0-2 @ 34 1-2 @ 21 Toulouse v Montpellier 1-3 @ 60 Valladolid v Malaga 0-1 @ 14 Wolfsburg v Dortmund 0-1 @ 19 1-0 @ 13.50 AEK v Levadiakos 0-1 @ 27 0-2 @ 110 1-1 @ 11.50 1-2 @ 42 Atl Madrid v Villarreal 0-0 @ 18.50 0-2 @ 29 Braga v Naval 1-1 @ 11 Gent v Genk 1-2 @ 18 Sampdoria v Roma 0-2 @ 20 Gijon v Sevilla 0-0 @ 12 Newells v San Lorenzo 1-3 @ 110
GL All...
ADO Den Haag v Heracles1-0 @ 11.503-1 @ 28Vitesse v Utrecht3-0 @ 48Willem II v Roda JC0-1 @ 13Legia Warsaw v Arka Gdynia 0-1 @ 201-2 @ 441-3 @ 290AC Milan v Palermo 0-1 @ 26Atalanta v Inter 1-0 @ 212-1 @ 25Catania v Livorno0-1 @ 13Lausanne v Young Bo
Reggina v Triestina 0-1 @ 12.50 0-2 @ 30 West Brom v QPR 0-1 @ 22 Tucuman v Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 @ 21
Been an 'ordinary' couple of weeks now, and the ROI has taken a hit , but hopefully it rebounds now and i can plough on to 100 winners asap...
Catania v Livorno 0-1 @ 13***won***77 from 1201 @ 19.30 ( 23.7% ROI )Reggina v Triestina0-1 @ 12.500-2 @ 30West Brom v QPR0-1 @ 22Tucuman v Gimnasia La Plata1-2 @ 21Been an 'ordinary' couple of weeks now, and the ROI has taken a hit , but hope
In theory - yes - but id expect not all bets would have matched the full 100 so settling for lesser average odds of around 18.33 total profit would be around 21000. Still not bad for 2 months... Hopefully it maintains an ROI above 20% over the 'long long term' - but i am not convinced just yet ! Patience & discipline.
In theory - yes - but id expect not all bets would have matched the full 100so settling for lesser average odds of around 18.33 total profit would be around 21000.Still not bad for 2 months...Hopefully it maintains an ROI above 20% over the 'long l
good advice rem, Spreadsheet throws up the odd one from leftfield jensk !
77 from 1216 @ 19.30 ( 22.2% ROI )
Mazembe v Auckland City 0-0 @ 13 0-1 @ 16.50 1-2 @ 20 Atlante v Barcelona 0-1 @ 9.20 CSKA Sofia v Roma 2-1 @ 16.50 Heerenveen v Ventspils 0-0 @ 19 0-1 @ 28 Lyon v Boulogne 1-2 @ 80 2-1 @ 14 Nancy v Nice 0-2 @ 27 Panathinaikos v Dinamo Bucharest 1-2 @ 30 Inter v Livorno 0-1 @ 30 1-2 @ 42 Paris St-G v Lens 0-1 @ 19 1-1 @ 9 1-2 @ 30 CFR Cluj v PSV 1-1 @ 7.40 Club Brugge v Toulouse 0-1 @ 11 Partizan Belgrade v Shakhtar 1-0 @ 14
good advice rem,Spreadsheet throws up the odd one from leftfield jensk !77 from 1216 @ 19.30 ( 22.2% ROI )Mazembe v Auckland City0-0 @ 130-1 @ 16.501-2 @ 20Atlante v Barcelona 0-1 @ 9.20CSKA Sofia v Roma2-1 @ 16.50Heerenveen v Ventspils0-0 @ 190-1 @
hello mate just beeen readin through ur current attempt at the correct scores and what a sample ur building up. hope it works out for u cant believe u nearly got tht arsenal fc game and a few other sky high prices gud luck rob
hello mate just beeen readin through ur current attempt at the correct scores and what a sample ur building up. hope it works out for u cant believe u nearly got tht arsenal fc game and a few other sky high prices gud luckrob
"nearly" being the operative word ! but thanks Rob...
Paris St-G v Lens 1-1 @ 9***won*** Partizan Belgrade v Shakhtar 1-0 @ 14***won***
79 from 1235 @ 19.10 ( 22.2% ROI )
Ajax v Anderlecht 0-1 @ 15 0-2 @ 30 Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara 0-0 @ 16.50 0-1 @ 32 1-2 @ 42 Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hamburg 0-1 @ 9.80 Benfica v AEK 0-1 @ 19 0-2 @ 48 Everton v BATE Borisov 1-2 @ 21 Fenerbahce v Sheriff Tiraspol 0-0 @ 12 0-1 @ 15 Lazio v Levski Sofia 0-1 @ 23 Steaua Bucharest v Twente 1-0 @ 12 Villarreal v Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 @ 15
"nearly" being the operative word !but thanks Rob...Paris St-G v Lens 1-1 @ 9***won***Partizan Belgrade v Shakhtar 1-0 @ 14***won***79 from 1235 @ 19.10 ( 22.2% ROI )Ajax v Anderlecht0-1 @ 150-2 @ 30Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara0-0 @ 16.500
morning Fatal, pleased to see you are still going strong. I've been crunching the numbers and stats in an experiment on the unders overs market since I last made an appearance here. Just looking at the p&L, I've covered over 600 games probably averaging a tenner a game or so and have a net profit of £17.53 after comm. you certainly got to work hard in this stats torture game.. good luck to you
morning Fatal, pleased to see you are still going strong. I've been crunching the numbers and stats in an experiment on the unders overs market since I last made an appearance here. Just looking at the p&L, I've covered over 600 games probably aver
Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara 1-2 @ 42 ***won*** Lazio v Levski Sofia 0-1 @ 23 ***won***
Coupla goodies have restored a bit of faith...
81 from 1249 @ 19.44 ( 26.1% ROI )
Duisburg v Aachen 0-2 @ 30 Koblenz v FSV Frankfurt 1-2 @ 15 Ascoli v Padova 1-2 @ 15 Besiktas v Bursaspor 0-1 @ 15.50 Ajaccio v Nantes 1-0 @ 9.20 Arles v Chateauroux 0-1 @ 12 Brest v Nimes 0-1 @ 13 Tours v Istres 1-2 @ 23 Vannes v Bastia 0-1 @ 12.50 0-2 @ 29 1-2 @ 19 Angers v Metz 0-1 @ 8.60 AU @ 22 Caen v Laval 0-1 @ 16 Clermont v Le Havre 0-1 @ 9.20 1-0 @ 8.80 AU @ 20 Schalke v Mainz 1-2 @ 30 Strasbourg v Guingamp 0-2 @ 22 1-2 @ 16 Grimsby v Morecambe 0-0 @ 14 1-0 @ 14 Hereford v Lincoln 0-2 @ 29 Cesena v Lecce 0-1 @ 9.60 Pacos Ferreira v Braga 2-1 @ 19.50
GL All.
Dinamo Zagreb v FC Timisoara 1-2 @ 42 ***won***Lazio v Levski Sofia 0-1 @ 23 ***won***Coupla goodies have restored a bit of faith...81 from 1249 @ 19.44 ( 26.1% ROI )Duisburg v Aachen 0-2 @ 30Koblenz v FSV Frankfurt1-2 @ 15Ascoli v Padova1-
Pohang Steelers v Atlante 2-1 @ 17.50 Albinoleffe v Empoli 0-1 @ 9.40 B Munich v H Berlin 0-0 @ 28 1-0 @ 9.80 Brescia v Modena 0-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 17.50 Frankfurt v Wolfsburg 0-1 @ 13.5 1-0 @ 16.50 Leverkusen v Mgladbach 0-0 @ 19 0-1 @ 28 Sassuolo v Salernitana 0-1 @ 16.50 0-2 @ 42 Triestina v Piacenza 0-1 @ 11.50 Bury v Macclesfield 0-1 @ 17 C Palace v Barnsley 1-1 @ 7.80 Charlton v Millwall 0-2 @ 32 Man City v Sunderland 0-1 @ 20 Norwich v Huddersfield 0-0 @ 18 0-1 @ 17 Rochdale v Shrewsbury 0-1 @ 17 1-2 @ 19 Swindon v Brighton 0-0 @ 13 Tranmere v Bristol Rovers 3-0 @ 50
Pohang Steelers v Atlante 2-1 @ 17.50Albinoleffe v Empoli0-1 @ 9.40B Munich v H Berlin 0-0 @ 281-0 @ 9.80Brescia v Modena 0-1 @ 131-2 @ 17.50Frankfurt v Wolfsburg 0-1 @ 13.51-0 @ 16.50Leverkusen v Mgladbach0-0 @ 190-1 @ 28Sassuolo v Salernitana0-1 @
Estudiantes v Barcelona 0-0 @ 21 Cordoba v Albacete AU @ 17 Hercules v Rec de Huelva 1-2 @ 22 Levante v Cartagena 0-2 @ 22 Panathinaikos v Giannina 1-2 @ 75 Arsenal v Hull 0-0 @ 25 AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag 0-1 @ 36 1-2 @ 40 Bordeaux v Lorient 0-1 @ 20 1-1 @ 9.60 1-2 @ 34 Rennes v Paris St-G 1-2 @ 16.50 Valenciennes v Lens 0-1 @ 12.50 Cercle B v Mouscron 0-0 @ 20 1-1 @ 10.50 Sevilla v Getafe 0-1 @ 22 Waalwijk v Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 @ 22 St Etienne v Marseille 2-0 @ 34 Real Madrid v Zaragoza 2-0 @ 8.60 3-0 @ 10 Naval v Sp Lisbon 2-1 @ 20
GL All.
( Kayserispor v Antalyaspor is 0-1 at HT ... )Estudiantes v Barcelona0-0 @ 21Cordoba v AlbaceteAU @ 17Hercules v Rec de Huelva1-2 @ 22Levante v Cartagena0-2 @ 22Panathinaikos v Giannina 1-2 @ 75Arsenal v Hull 0-0 @ 25AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag 0-1
Kayserispor v Antalyaspor 1-2 @ 29 ***won*** C Palace v Barnsley 1-1 @ 7.80 ***won***
85 from 1314 @ 19.41 ( 25.5% ROI )
Oberhausen v Bielefeld 1-0 @ 14 Hearts v Celtic 1-0 @ 21 Paderborn v St Pauli 0-0 @ 16 1-0 @ 14 Panionios v Kavala 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 38 1-1 @ 8.20
Kayserispor v Antalyaspor 1-2 @ 29 ***won***C Palace v Barnsley 1-1 @ 7.80 ***won***85 from 1314 @ 19.41 ( 25.5% ROI )Oberhausen v Bielefeld1-0 @ 14Hearts v Celtic1-0 @ 21Paderborn v St Pauli0-0 @ 161-0 @ 14Panionios v Kavala0-1 @ 14.500-2
Juventus v Catania 0-0 @ 16.50 0-1 @ 30 1-3 @ 180 Napoli v Chievo 0-1 @ 15 0-2 @ 32 Palermo v Siena 1-2 @ 24 Roma v Parma 0-1 @ 20 0-2 @ 44 Auxerre v Toulouse 1-2 @ 19.50 Girona v Elche AU @ 18 Huesca v Castellon 0-2 @ 28 1-2 @ 18 1-3 @ 65 Leiria v Belenenses 0-2 @ 28 1-2 @ 18.50 Lille v Le Mans 0-1 @ 27 0-2 @ 95 1-2 @ 38 Nacional v Academica 1-2 @ 18.50 Setubal v Maritimo 1-0 @ 13.50 2-1 @ 19.50 Villarreal v Santander 0-0 @ 16 0-1 @ 20 West Ham v Chelsea 0-0 @ 19.50 1-0 @ 30 Xanthi v Iraklis 0-2 @ 29 Tenerife v Atl Madrid 0-0 @ 16
GL All...
Juventus v Catania 0-0 @ 16.500-1 @ 301-3 @ 180Napoli v Chievo 0-1 @ 150-2 @ 32Palermo v Siena1-2 @ 24Roma v Parma0-1 @ 200-2 @ 44Auxerre v Toulouse1-2 @ 19.50Girona v Elche AU @ 18Huesca v Castellon0-2 @ 281-2 @ 181-3 @ 65Leiria v Belenenses0-2 @ 2
I wonder what your figures would look like if you'd greened up everytime you reached a correct score rather than leaving it to run and potentially go past it. I suppose that's another thread for another day.
I wonder what your figures would look like if you'd greened up everytime you reached a correct score rather than leaving it to run and potentially go past it. I suppose that's another thread for another day.
thats a completely different kettle of fish rocket !!
85 from 1351 @ 19.41 ( 22.1% ROI )
Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor 1-2 @ 15.50 Manisaspor v Besiktas 1-0 @ 12.50 Dijon v Brest 1-2 @ 14.50 Guingamp v Clermont 0-1 @ 11 Laval v Vannes 0-1 @ 11.50 1-2 @ 17.50 Nimes v Istres 0-2 @ 29 Arles v Sedan 1-3 @ 50 Le Havre v Strasbourg 0-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 21 Nantes v Angers 0-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 20 Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar 0-0 @ 14 Gent v GBA 0-1 @ 15 Lens v St Etienne 0-1 @ 11.50 1-2 @ 18.50
GL All
thats a completely different kettle of fish rocket !!85 from 1351 @ 19.41 ( 22.1% ROI )Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor1-2 @ 15.50Manisaspor v Besiktas1-0 @ 12.50Dijon v Brest1-2 @ 14.50Guingamp v Clermont 0-1 @ 11Laval v Vannes0-1 @ 11.501-2 @ 17.50Nimes
Lyon v Montpellier 1-2 @ 32 ***won*** Anderlecht v FCV Dender 3-0 @ 9 ***won*** Genk v Roeselare 1-2 @ 32 ***won*** Standard v K V Kortrijk 1-2 @ 23 ***won***
90 from 1390 @ 19.62 ( 27.1% ROI )
Safe xmas all.
( Heerenveen v PSV rescheduled 17th jan ?? )
yep bout time too rasp..Lyon v Montpellier 1-2 @ 32 ***won***Anderlecht v FCV Dender 3-0 @ 9 ***won***Genk v Roeselare 1-2 @ 32 ***won***Standard v K V Kortrijk 1-2 @ 23 ***won***90 from 1390 @ 19.62 ( 27.1% ROI )Safe xmas a
Barnsley v Middlesbrough 0-1 @ 10 Blackburn v Sunderland 0-1 @ 12 Bournemouth v Torquay 1-2 @ 19.50 Bradford v Shrewsbury 0-1 @ 13.50 Bristol City v Watford 0-1 @ 12.50 0-2 @ 25 Chelsea v Fulham 0-0 @ 15.50 Dag and Red v Cheltenham 1-2 @ 21 Everton v Burnley 0-1 @ 21 1-2 @ 28 1-3 @ 100 Hereford v Aldershot 2-0 @ 17.50 Huddersfield v MK Dons 1-2 @ 16 Macclesfield v Crewe 1-0 @ 13 Millwall v Bristol Rovers 0-1 @ 15 Peterborough v Cardiff 1-0 @ 13 Scunthorpe v West Brom 1-0 @ 17.50 Sheff Utd v Preston 0-1 @ 15 1-2 @ 19 Swansea v C Palace 0-1 @ 12 1-2 @ 17.50 Swindon v Yeovil 0-1 @ 14.50 Walsall v Norwich 1-0 @ 13.50 Newcastle v Derby 0-0 @ 15 1-2 @ 38
GL All.
92 from 1427 @ 19.54 ( 26.0% ROI )Barnsley v Middlesbrough0-1 @ 10Blackburn v Sunderland0-1 @ 12Bournemouth v Torquay1-2 @ 19.50Bradford v Shrewsbury 0-1 @ 13.50Bristol City v Watford 0-1 @ 12.500-2 @ 25Chelsea v Fulham 0-0 @ 15.50Dag and Red v Chelt
Churchill Brothers SC v Shillong Lajong FC 0-1 @ 28 K V Kortrijk v Club Brugge 0-0 @ 14.50 2-1 @ 15.50 Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem 0-0 @ 17.50 0-1 @ 27 Lokeren v GBA 3-1 @ 34 Hearts v Motherwell 1-2 @ 18 1-3 @ 55 Portsmouth v Arsenal 1-1 @ 9.60 Rangers v Dundee Utd 0-0 @ 19.50
GL All.. ( be back in the new year to finish this torture ! )
93 from 1455 @ 19.49 ( 23.6% )Churchill Brothers SC v Shillong Lajong FC 0-1 @ 28K V Kortrijk v Club Brugge0-0 @ 14.502-1 @ 15.50Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem0-0 @ 17.500-1 @ 27Lokeren v GBA3-1 @ 34Hearts v Motherwell1-2 @ 181-3 @ 55Portsmouth v Arsenal
Larissa v Asteras Tripolis 1-2 @ 19 Ancona v Triestina 0-1 @ 14 0-2 @ 36 Crotone v Cittadella 0-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 16.50 Empoli v Sassuolo 0-2 @ 32 Lecce v Vicenza 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 38 1-2 @ 20 Piacenza v Gallipoli 0-1 @ 11 Reggina v Grosseto 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 34 Torino v Mantova 0-1 @ 15 0-2 @ 55 1-3 @ 130 Porto v Leixoes 0-1 @ 30 1-1 @ 11.50 1-2 @ 46 Salernitana v Brescia 1-0 @ 10
GL ( in 2010) All.
Larissa v Asteras Tripolis1-2 @ 19Ancona v Triestina0-1 @ 140-2 @ 36Crotone v Cittadella0-1 @ 131-2 @ 16.50Empoli v Sassuolo0-2 @ 32Lecce v Vicenza0-1 @ 14.500-2 @ 381-2 @ 20Piacenza v Gallipoli0-1 @ 11Reggina v Grosseto0-1 @ 14.500-2 @ 34Torino v Ma
Giannina v Xanthi 1-2 @ 17.50 Iraklis v Panthrakikos 0-1 @ 30 Atalanta v Napoli 0-1 @ 10.50 Cagliari v Roma 0-1 @ 11.50 Catania v Bologna 0-1 @ 13 Lazio v Livorno 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 40 Parma v Juventus 1-0 @ 11.50 Panathinaikos v Ergotelis 0-0 @ 16.50 0-1 @ 36 1-2 @ 55 Olympiacos v AEK 1-2 @ 30
94 from 1484 @ 19.58 ( 24.1% ROI )Giannina v Xanthi 1-2 @ 17.50Iraklis v Panthrakikos0-1 @ 30Atalanta v Napoli 0-1 @ 10.50Cagliari v Roma0-1 @ 11.50Catania v Bologna0-1 @ 13Lazio v Livorno0-1 @ 14.500-2 @ 40Parma v Juventus1-0 @ 11.50Panathinaikos v
Fatal, An interesting thread, which I recall part reading at the outset for a while, pleased to see it has continued in a good profit for you.
3 quick questions if I may, firstly the Arsenal game 1-3 130/1, do you know the lowest price 1-3 traded at and was you tempted to get out. Have you considered taking profits out of big priced games along the way.
Also I note that quite a few of your selected scores are shall we say the less expected I think Wolves v Man Utd 3-1 was one, is this because your spreadsheet is picking out the larger differentials between price and expectancy, where prices on here on outsiders are always likely to be inflated. Do you guard against this.
Thanks for your time and GL
Fatal, An interesting thread, which I recall part reading at the outset for a while, pleased to see it has continued in a good profit for you.3 quick questions if I may, firstly the Arsenal game 1-3 130/1, do you know the lowest price 1-3 traded at a
SA - no sorry i dont know the Arsenal price , betfair historical data is the go if you really want that data. And no not tempted to 'get out' because i have looked into that 'tactic' and fail to see why or how it can be any 'more' profitable than riding out the bet. ( but i'll stand corrected if anyone can 'prove' it to me...) And as for 'guarding against inflated outsider's prices" - I think this is exactly what i'm looking for and where i am currently being profitable. I am not discouraged by big prices.. this is a long haul system. ie; 10% value at 100/1 pays me 110 or 10% value at 10/1 pays me 11 i theoretically get 1 of the 100/1 winners or 10 of the 10/1 winners, but same profit over 100 bets so whats it matter, or is that too simplistic of me ?? Thanks for the input and GL to you.
SA - no sorry i dont know the Arsenal price , betfair historical data is the go if you really want that data.And no not tempted to 'get out' because i have looked into that 'tactic' and fail to see why or how it can be any 'more' profitable than rid
Colmar v Lille 0-0 @ 18 1-1 @ 13 Albinoleffe v Reggina AU @ 18.50 Brescia v Padova 0-1 @ 15.50 1-2 @ 23 Cesena v Piacenza 0-1 @ 14.50 1-2 @ 20 Triestina v Frosinone 0-1 @ 14 1-2 @ 17.50 AU @ 15.50 Xanthi v Panathinaikos 1-0 @ 14.50 2-1 @ 29 3-1 @ 130 Arsenal v Everton 0-1 @ 30 Coventry v Barnsley 0-0 @ 12.50 Derby v Scunthorpe 0-1 @ 15.50 Leeds v Wycombe 0-1 @ 42 1-1 @ 14.50 Norwich v Exeter 0-0 @ 18.50 0-1 @ 30 Gimnastic v Celta Vigo AU @ 19 Levadiakos v PAOK 2-0 @ 40 2-1 @ 25 Maritimo v Guimaraes 0-1 @ 10 1-2 @ 15.50 1-3 @ 48 Murcia v Elche 3-1 @ 28 Sociedad v Cadiz 0-1 @ 16.50 0-2 @ 48 Birmingham v Man Utd 3-1 @ 110 Monaco v Tours 0-1 @ 15.50 1-2 @ 22 Sevilla v Santander 0-1 @ 20 Inter v Siena 0-0 @ 19 0-1 @ 46 Le Mans v Valenciennes 1-2 @ 14.50 Rennes v Caen 1-2 @ 21 Rio Ave v Benfica 2-1 @ 24
Colmar v Lille 0-0 @ 181-1 @ 13Albinoleffe v Reggina AU @ 18.50Brescia v Padova 0-1 @ 15.501-2 @ 23Cesena v Piacenza 0-1 @ 14.501-2 @ 20Triestina v Frosinone 0-1 @ 141-2 @ 17.50AU @ 15.50Xanthi v Panathinaikos1-0 @ 14.502-1 @ 293-1 @ 130Arsenal v E
Leeds v Wycombe 1-1 @ 14.50 ***won*** Maritimo v Guimaraes 0-1 @ 10 ***won***
97 from 1539 @ 19.54 ( 23.2% ROI )
crawling to the magic 100 - and should still be over 20% !! _ then it'll be Cartwheel time !!
Leeds v Wycombe 1-1 @ 14.50 ***won***Maritimo v Guimaraes 0-1 @ 10 ***won***97 from 1539 @ 19.54 ( 23.2% ROI )crawling to the magic 100- and should still be over 20% !!_ then it'll be Cartwheel time !!
Rocket - next stage for me is to start staking 'serious'. I am pessimistic by nature and have only bet minimum stakes right thru these tests. But over 20% ROI is enough to bury my pessimism - mostly ! I have conjured up further 'tweaks' to the spreadsheet - but i am loathe to implement them as i do beleive in the ol' saying "if it aint broke - dont**it", so i'll leave as is and run with it....
Rocket - next stage for me is to start staking 'serious'. I am pessimistic by nature and have only bet minimum stakes right thru these tests. But over 20% ROI is enough to bury my pessimism - mostly !I have conjured up further 'tweaks' to the sprea
Hamilton v Rangers 0-0 @ 19.50 Asteras Tripolis v Kavala 0-2 @ 28 1-2 @ 19.50 Olympiacos v Larissa 2-2 @ 65 Bologna v Cagliari 0-1 @ 10.50 Fiorentina v Bari 0-1 @ 17 1-2 @ 24 Genoa v Catania 0-1 @ 18.50 Napoli v Sampdoria 1-2 @ 19.50 Palermo v Atalanta 0-1 @ 18 1-2 @ 23
Hamilton v Rangers0-0 @ 19.50Asteras Tripolis v Kavala0-2 @ 281-2 @ 19.50Olympiacos v Larissa2-2 @ 65Bologna v Cagliari0-1 @ 10.50Fiorentina v Bari 0-1 @ 171-2 @ 24Genoa v Catania0-1 @ 18.50Napoli v Sampdoria1-2 @ 19.50Palermo v Atalanta0-1 @ 181-2 @
Aris Thes. v Iraklis 0-1 @ 17 0-2 @ 55 1-2 @ 34 Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano AU @ 21 Deportivo v Osasuna 1-2 @ 18 Girona v Las Palmas 0-1 @ 10.50 Levante v Real Union 0-1 @ 13 AEK v Atromitos 1-1 @ 10 Academica v Naval 0-1 @ 12 1-2 @ 18.50
GL All.
Aris Thes. v Iraklis 0-1 @ 170-2 @ 551-2 @ 34Cordoba v Rayo VallecanoAU @ 21Deportivo v Osasuna1-2 @ 18Girona v Las Palmas 0-1 @ 10.50Levante v Real Union 0-1 @ 13AEK v Atromitos1-1 @ 10Academica v Naval 0-1 @ 121-2 @ 18.50GL All.
Altay v Eskisehirspor 1-3 @ 36 3-1 @ 32 Denizli Belediyespor v Orduspor 1-0 @ 13.50 AC Milan v Novara 0-1 @ 42 Bursaspor v Tarsus Idman Yurdu 1-1 @ 17.50 Guingamp v Paris St-G 1-0 @ 12.50 Lens v Lorient 1-2 @ 16.50 Lille v Rennes 0-2 @ 34 Toulouse v Nancy 0-1 @ 11 Fenerbahce v Tokatspor 0-0 @ 27 1-1 @ 17.50 Academica v Porto 1-0 @ 13.50 Osasuna v Hercules 1-2 @ 21 Santander v Alcorcon 1-2 @ 27
98 from 1572 @ 19.45 ( 21.2% ROI )Altay v Eskisehirspor1-3 @ 363-1 @ 32Denizli Belediyespor v Orduspor1-0 @ 13.50AC Milan v Novara0-1 @ 42Bursaspor v Tarsus Idman Yurdu1-1 @ 17.50Guingamp v Paris St-G1-0 @ 12.50Lens v Lorient1-2 @ 16.50Lille v Rennes
Lens v Lorient 1-2 @ 16.50 ***won*** Sevilla v Barcelona 0-1 @ 11.50 ***won***
Final Stats..
101 from 1590 @ 19.27 ( 22.4% ROI )
Hallelujah brothers !
IT CAN BE DONE !!.
Lens v Lorient 1-2 @ 16.50 ***won***Sevilla v Barcelona 0-1 @ 11.50 ***won***Final Stats..101 from 1590 @ 19.27 ( 22.4% ROI )Hallelujah brothers !IT CAN BE DONE !!.
Rocket - no point really, sending out spreadsheets without very detailed explanations & i aint keen on the 'dead' time involved in that - sorry. Cynth - I'll keep stats for this method updated if you wish but dont think i'll continue posting every bet as it is quite laborious. And everyone else - i genuinely thank you all for your well wishes and input along the way, it definitely helped me through those 'dark times ' ... And finally , a very big " Good Luck All " for your own 'Correct Score Torture'.
Rocket - no point really, sending out spreadsheets without very detailed explanations & i aint keen on the 'dead' time involved in that - sorry.Cynth - I'll keep stats for this method updated if you wish but dont think i'll continue posting every be
Not sure if you've already answered this but what dictated the number of bets you put on each game? Sometimes you only put on one correct score other times two or three.
Not sure if you've already answered this but what dictated the number of bets you put on each game? Sometimes you only put on one correct score other times two or three.
Thank you cres & rasp, will do. Rocket - My spreadsheet comes up with a figure for each cs, if it is over the value threshold it qualifies if not it doesnt. sometimes none, sometimes one ,sometimes multiple... you've gotta decide where to draw the line and stick to it. Rem - thats a tough one.. my theory is that although there is no doubt correct score markets in general are 'accurate' ( ie over 100 matches ) individual cs's are not necessarily so. When you look at a cs market surely you would see some cs's and say 'thats unders' or 'thats overs'.. ? but i dont trust my instincts , so a statistical and probability based spreadsheet pointing me in the right direction is far more 'convincing' and reliable. With that in mind i eventually tweaked my spreadsheet with factors that now give me a better than 20 % edge in finding the cs's that are over the odds. Thats why it works - perhaps. ( but to be honest i dont really care 'why' it works !! )( it just works !! ) GL ALL.
Thank you cres & rasp, will do.Rocket - My spreadsheet comes up with a figure for each cs, if it is over the value threshold it qualifies if not it doesnt. sometimes none, sometimes one ,sometimes multiple... you've gotta decide where to draw the l